Critical Tier Drops: Running Backs

Each fantasy football season the landscape of the skill positions change. One year offers more depth, while another turns into a studs and duds feel to the available player pool. Dissecting key drop off points in the positional average draft position (ADP) is critical to maximizing draft day value. Here are the key pivot points for 2019 at running back:

*Not all running backs in the fantasy football landscape are listed, target players only*

THE BIG four

The top of redraft boards is littered with running backs in the typical draft season. The elite producers from the previous season, studs returning from injury, and ideal situations to thrive can compass their warranted profiles. 2019 is no different with Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, and Ezekiel Elliott the consensus RB1-4 in ADP. The potential variables or quibbles with these backs include:

• Saquon Barkley (Lone question is it Giants offense is viable under Eli Manning-Daniel Jones and without Odell Beckham)
• Alvin Kamara (Will need to maintain efficiency if still a committee back with Latavius Murray added)
• Christian McCaffrey (Elite receiver, lack of carries-rushing touchdowns is lone question mark)
• Ezekiel Elliott (Holdout is the lone question, otherwise would be in 1.01 discussion regularly)

Again, these are the quibbles with the best fantasy running back bets this season.

THE 'where are you comfortable' tier

The next tier of running backs stretches down to RB30 or so in ADP. The goal is accumulating known roles and expected usage. There may be sub-tiers within this group for preference, but their RB1 status on the depth chart is not in question for Week 1 or the early part of the season. These preferred target running backs include:

• Nick Chubb (Unquestioned workhorse on potential rising phoenix Cleveland offense, Round 2 ADP)
• Joe Mixon (Breakout potential to crash top-5, but question abound with Cincinnati, Round 2 ADP)
• Kerryon Johnson (Theo Riddick is gone, passing game unlocked for Johnson as RB1 candidate, Round 3 ADP)
• Aaron Jones (Lack of draft pedigree, but also lack of strong challengers, Round 3 ADP)
• Marlon Mack (Minimal competition, Andrew Luck health is a question mark as of mid-preseason, Round 3 ADP)
• Derrick Henry (Receiving needs strong uptick to crack mid-RB1 or better, finally getting 1A work, Round 4 ADP)
• Devonta Freeman (Returning from injury on high-level offense, no Tevin Coleman this year, Round 4 ADP)
• Tevin Coleman (Perfect system, Jerick McKinnon injured, Coleman yet to be a true feature back though, Round 7 ADP)

High Risk

embrace the variance

After Tevin Coleman is gone, the next tier of backs stretches 30 deep and into Rounds 10-15 of typical leagues. All of them have stories to tell where they are mid-RB2 producers or better if things break right.

In general, gravitate to the easy stories in this range. Here are the easiest explanations for how they are a weekly starter:

• Rashaad Penny (Round 1 running backs do not sit as a backup for multiple years to open career)
• Miles Sanders (Might be a committee to start the season, but the talent is overt compared to Jordan Howard)
• Kenyan Drake (Yet to be a true lead back in college or NFL, but golden opportunity in 2019)
• Latavius Murray (1B to Alvin Kamara, but 10+ touchdown upside and elite potential if Kamara misses time)
• Royce Freeman (Could be a muddy committee in Denver, but Phillip Lindsay has size limitations)
• Kalen Ballage (1A upside if Kenyan Drake falters)
• Carlos Hyde (Damien Williams yet to be lead NFL back for any significant stretch)
• Damien Harris (Hedge on the health of Sony Michel, 10+ touchdowns in play for Harris)
• Jaylen Samuels (Lack of challenge from rookie Benny Snell points to 2019 James Conner version being Samuels in Pittsburgh, impact upside if Conners misses time)
• Matt Breida (Jerick McKinnon likely a slow start to the season - at best - and Breida easily best running back beyond Tevin Coleman)
• Alexander Mattison (Betting against the health of Dalvin Cook on strong offense, the new Latavius Murray in Minnesota)

THE CHASE THE UPSIDE TIER

This tier begins outside the top-50 or so running backs. The stories to fantasy prominence are murkier considering their profiles, depth charts, durability, or a combination of all three. Here are the leading candidates to hit big:

• Giovani Bernard (Clear backup to Joe Mixon, size limitation)
• Tony Pollard (Rising preseason darling, could run with the job if Ezekiel Elliott holdout or injury)
• C.J. Anderson (Clear backup to Kerryon Johnson)
• Ty Montgomery (Looks like the clear backup to LeVeon Bell)
• Chase Edmonds (Clear backup to David Johnson)
• Jamaal Williams (RB2 in Green Bay, lack of RB3 challenger)
• Malcolm Brown (Todd Gurley mystery fog, Brown has shown well over years)
• Alfred Blue (Ideal backup spot to oft-injured Leonard Fournette)

Finally, running backs on the deep-league radar:

• Cameron Artis-Payne (Likely RB2 in Carolina without much fanfare)
• Doug Martin/DeAndre Washington (Primary backup in Oakland potential)
• T.J. Yeldon (Potential Buffalo roster casualty, but good enough to resurface and impact elsewhere)
• Brian Hill/Qadree Ollison (Ito Smith is Falcons RB2 on paper but lacks the size to expect big role, Hill or Ollison could leapfrog for team-leading carries if Devonta Freeman is out)

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