TipAndPick's: Tips and Picks, DK Edition

John Lee's TipAndPick's: Tips and Picks, DK Edition John Lee Published 12/07/2019

For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.

Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.

TIPS...

In order to help you build winning rosters, let's walk through some of the observations that I have made while doing my research for DraftKings this week. As you build out your lineups on DraftKings, try to consider the following commentary, which revolves around game strategy and how we will want to take advantage of what the masses are doing when they construct their own lineups.

TIGHT SALARY WEEK: DraftKings has done a tremendous job of pricing players this week. The result is that only one player (as of the posting of this article) is projected to be rostered in > 20% of tournament lineups (Christian McCaffrey at 23%). Because ownership of players is fairly flat, it creates a tougher game for the more casual player, but a potential edge for those of you who are using Footballguys' projections and related material. For cash games, it will be a difficult build this week (although the recent announcement that Bilal Powell will start for the Jets certainly helps); for tournament lineup builds, there is a distinct edge to be garnered because you are not forced to polarize your ownership levels to such a degree that most weeks require (i.e., when a player is 35% owned in a plus matchup, you typically have to take a hard stance on such a player to differentiate yourself from the masses). With a more level distribution of players across tournament lineups, you can take moderate stances on players to mitigate risk or choose to go heavy on players to gain significant leverage on the field; the former method will lessen risk, but also upside, while the latter strategy will put many of your lineups at the top/bottom of the final standings. Best of luck with however you choose to attack it.

2019 FORMAT:

NAME OPP. SALARY PROJ. % CASH? GPP STARS NOTES
Warren Moon @CAR $6,400 11% Yes «««« 4 stars = Best GPP selections.
Joe Montana KC $8,000 18% - ««« 3 stars = Better GPP selections.
Dan Marino NYG $4,400 3% Yes «« 2 stars = Good GPP selections.
Jim Kelly @OAK $5,100 7% - « 1 star = Average GPP selections.

A new year brings a new format. In an effort to condense and enhance the value of the article, the text of Tips and Picks will be less than in years' past, but the upside is that you will now gain access to my full GPP player pool for DraftKings each and every week! For each position, I will provide Footballguys' subscribers with every player that I consider to be viable for cash games, while providing a ranking for every player that I will be drafting in my tournament lineups. The above table is an example of what you will see in the "Picks" section of this article. See below for some important bullet points regarding the new format:

  • The "CROWD EXPOSURE" column is based on Steve Buzzard's Ownership Projections each week.
  • The "CASH VIABLE?" column reveals to the reader which players can be considered for cash games (50/50's, double-ups, and head-to-head contests).
  • The "GPP STARS" column rates players according to how I rank them in my large-field GPP contests each week:
    • 4 stars: The players in which I will be most overweight on the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are my most confident plays.
    • 3 stars: The players in which I like more than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are plays that I feel strongly could deliver.
    • 2 stars: The players in which I will be close to the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these players reflect those that I think the public percentages are most accurate.
    • 1 star: The players in which I will be exposed at rates lower than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column) OR at rates generally lower than 5% overall; these are players who merit consideration in your overall approach, but will be limited in my player pool due to game strategy reasons.
  • If you have any questions on the new format, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.

...AND PICKS

Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation.

QUARTERBACKS

NAME OPP. SALARY PROJ. % CASH? GPP STARS NOTES
Kyle Allen @ATL $5,700 2% - «««« Here because his receivers are too cheap. Stack'em up.
Jacoby Brissett TB $6,100 3% - ««« TB's pass-funnel defense elevates floor/ceiling.
Aaron Rodgers WAS $6,800 5% - ««« Averaging 302 passing yards/game at Lambeau.
Sam Darnold MIA $6,000 8% - ««« Playing Miami has awaken many NFL QBs this season.
Derek Carr TEN $5,000 5% Yes ««« TEN: Missing both starting CBs. Price is right.
Kirk Cousins DET $6,700 4% - «« Leverage play against Dalvin's likely ownership.
Deshaun Watson DEN $6,500 11% Yes «« Injuries to Denver rush attack are hurting secondary.
Andy Dalton @CLE $5,200 1% - «« Counting on gamescript to deliver 4x value.
Ryan Fitzpatrick @NYJ $6,000 4% - «« Slaughtered a healthier Jets defense in Week #6.
Patrick Mahomes II @NE $7,000 4% - «« Mostly fading, but a few shares to get Tyreek Stacks.
Tom Brady KC $6,100 5% - «« Struggling with receiving corps of late. Lite exposure.
Jameis Winston @IND $6,400 8% - « 300+ yards in 8 of his previous 10 games.
Lamar Jackson @BUF $7,400 9% - « Running him 'naked' in GPPs. Poor receiver matchups.
David Blough @MIN $5,200 1% - « Giving him a chance due to gamescript & WR options.
Drew Brees SF $5,900 3% - « Will take the discount and future HOF'er at home.
Matt Ryan CAR $6,600 8% Photos provided by Imagn Images
Tags:
Daily FF DraftKings Davante Adams Josh Allen Keenan Allen Kyle Allen Geronimo Allison Danny Amendola Robbie Chosen Odell Beckham Jr David Blough Tyler Boyd Tom Brady Jacoby Brissett A.J. Brown Parris Campbell Derek Carr Nick Chubb D.J. Chark Jr Dalvin Cook Jared Cook Kirk Cousins Jamison Crowder Andy Dalton Sam Darnold Stefon Diggs Phillip Dorsett Jack Doyle Eric Ebron Mike Evans Noah Fant Anthony Firkser Ryan Fitzpatrick Leonard Fournette Devonta Freeman Will Fuller V Mike Gesicki Chris Godwin Kenny Golladay Melvin Gordon III Ryan Griffin Chris Harris Jr Dwayne Haskins Derrick Henry Hunter Henry Tyreek Hill T.Y. Hilton Austin Hooper DeAndre Hopkins Marlon Humphrey Carlos Hyde Mark Ingram II Adoree' Jackson Lamar Jackson Josh Jacobs Diontae Johnson Duke Johnson Jr Marcus Johnson Aaron Jones Julio Jones Marvin Jones Jr Ronald Jones II Alvin Kamara Travis Kelce Christian Kirk George Kittle Patrick Laird Jarvis Landry Allen Lazard Phillip Lindsay Marlon Mack Patrick Mahomes II Christian McCaffrey J.D. McKissic Terry McLaurin Jakobi Meyers Sony Michel Joe Mixon Ty Montgomery II DJ Moore Kenny Moore II DeVante Parker Zach Pascal Marcus Peters Hunter Renfrow Jalen Richard Calvin Ridley Aaron Rodgers Kyle Rudolph Matt Ryan Curtis Samuel Emmanuel Sanders Richard Sherman Devin Singletary Irv Smith Jr. Jimmy Smith Jonnu Smith Kenny Stills Auden Tate Darwin Thompson Ian Thomas Michael Thomas Darren Waller Denzel Ward Sammy Watkins Deshaun Watson J.J. Watt James White Greedy Williams Jamaal Williams Preston Williams Tyrell Williams Jameis Winston
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