The New Reality No.147: Early-Season Trading List

Chad Parsons's The New Reality No.147: Early-Season Trading List Chad Parsons Published 09/16/2020

The opening week of the NFL season presented the first data points in months. Dynasty GMs are left with a variety of avenues to navigate player value including:

  • What was a trend and what was an outlier from Week 1?
  • The fertile ground of early-season waiver wire players
  • Are trades needed for the dynasty roster?
  • Finally, setting the Week 2 lineup

The highest leverage aspects of the Dynasty GM's action plan this week are how they will assess potential roster weaknesses and navigating the trade market of sell-high or buy-low players.

THE SELL LIST

The easier list and action plan involves players to sell as the marketplace is the rest of the league, where buying a player is a market of you (the buyer) working a deal with one specific GM about a specific player. For each player recently executed market trades are included for ideas. Assume 12-team PPR formats unless otherwise notated.

Jimmy Garoppolo

Garoppolo continues to build his profile of being a middling fantasy quarterback. However, he plays on a quality team and has some sense of name cache. Garoppolo has (at a minimum) a physically compromised George Kittle, Deebo Samuel out a few more games, Brandon Aiyuk still working back, and a collection of baseline players in their stead. Garoppolo still pulls a decent return in the dynasty trade market, however, despite being a ho-hum QB2 with occasional QB1 moments.

Chris Carson

Carson had a narrow snap edge over Carlos Hyde and Travis Homer played meaningful snaps as well for Seattle in Week 1, a game they had a positive game script against Atlanta. Carson's 45% snap share is not congruent with the clear starters and the upper crust of the running back hierarchy. Fantasy-wise Carson survived on his 12 touches due to six catches and an aberrational two receiving touchdowns. Carson has only three touchdowns through the air over the previous three seasons combined as a comparison. With Rashad Penny likely to return by midseason and especially Carlos Hyde a timeshare threat in the meantime, Carson has a window to cash out on his name cache.

Mark Ingram

Ingram was out-snapped by J.K. Dobbins in Week 1 and Gus Edwards also played a meaningful role in the crowded Baltimore backfield. Ingram had limited receiving involvement most weeks last season, relying on an uncommon five receiving scores (15 overall) on just 26 receptions to boost his fantasy stat line. With J.K. Dobbins a significant part of the committee, at a minimum, Ingram already shifts to a flex lineup consideration more than an auto-start player. AT 30 years old, Ingram has minimal wiggle room production-wise before he is a roster clogger.

Malcolm Brown

As of mid-week publication, Brown is the most traded player on myfantasyleague.com this week. Brown was the clear RB1 for the Rams in snaps and hit 110 total yards and two scores. What is not to like? Well, Cam Akers saw a robust 15 touches as the RB2 and his Day 2 pedigree and elite prospect profile point to an expanded opportunity in the coming weeks. Brown has already been a successful UDFA considering how long he has stuck in the NFL and with the Rams. This window offers a cash-out opportunity as Brown was/is likely low enough on a dynasty roster pecking order where he is not in lineup consideration in the short term.

  • Brown, 21 4th for 21 2nd
  • Brown for 21 2nd (superflex)
  • Brown for Tyler Boyd

Jace Sternberger

Sternberger was a breakout candidate in 2020 after a near-redshirt rookie season as a Day 2 rookie last year. However, Sternberger was the TE4 for Green Bay in snaps Week 1 and Robert Tonyan Jr was easily the TE1. Production did notfind the position overall as the wide receivers dominated against Minnesota. The snap gap for Sternberger to close for relevance, let alone streaming potential, is vast and only a 2TE format is a discussion for possibly holding Sternberger.

  • Sternberger for 21 3rd, 21 3rd

THE BUY LIST

Backup Running Backs

Dynasty GMs chase opportunity in-season and No.2 running backs can be the best investments for future weeks. They are an injury away from a prominent role for a fraction of the cost of their team's starter in many/most cases. The most affordable No.2 backs who stand to inherit a strong workload with a single injury include:

Ideally, one or two of these options are available on the waiver wire (Booker and Davis most likely) in moderate depth dynasty leagues. However, they are the perfect add-ons to existing or currently-negotiating deals involving higher value players. All have clarified backup roles from Week 1.
Also, the stock may be slipping some on the following backs based on injury, performance, or general ambiguity or impatience with in-season roster spot pressure:
Harris, Penny, and Bell are currently on the shelf for at least multiple weeks going forward. Bell has the most clarified role when he returns. Harris is a quality Day 2 back but will return to a crowded Patriots depth chart, being more of a profile buy in the macro view. Singletary ceded red zone and goal-line work to Zack Moss in Week 1. Singletary is still a quality talent even if the touchdown upside is limited with an active Moss. Johnson may have lost the most value from early 2020 until today. Johnson was the RB3 in snaps for Detroit with Adrian Peterson leading the team in carries and D'Andre Swift pacing the depth chart in snaps in his NFL debut. Finally, Penny is a sturdy talent with Round 1 pedigree, but healthy (and opportunity) has eluded him in Seattle to-date.
  • Harris, 21 3rd for James Robinson
  • Penny, 21 3rd for Mitchell Trubisky (superflex)
  • Johnson for 21 3rd
  • Singletary for Lamical Perine, James Robinson
  • Bell for Benny Snell

Brandin Cooks

Returning from injury in Week 1, Cooks posted a pedestrian 2-20-0 line on five targets as he did not look like himself. The good news is he still had the second-most targets on the team and WR1 upside is in play any week with Deshaun Watson. Cooks, while only 27 years old, has already experienced value erosion in the dynasty market.

Hayden Hurst

Hurst had only five targets in Week 1 as the Falcons were in comeback mode against Seattle, throwing 54 passes in the process. Be skeptical Russell Gage sees 12 targets (more than double that of Hurst) again. Hurst had a highlight downfield catch of his production, but also another chunk play just missed. Atlanta's defense is one of the weak units in the NFL. Expect their offense to put up 40 or more passes plenty of weeks this season and Hurst to be more involved than his 9% of the team targets in future weeks.

Photos provided by Imagn Images

More by Chad Parsons

 

The New Reality No.233: Early 2025 NFL Draft Prospects

Chad Parsons

From dynasty team-building and player evaluations to NFL research and forecasting, Chad Parsons covers dynasty fantasy football's landscape in The New Reality.

01/01/25 Read More
 

High-Leverage Opportunities, Running Backs: Season Recap

Chad Parsons

Running back production is fueled by goal-line carries and targets in the passing game. Chad Parsons breaks down high-leverage opportunities every week.

01/01/25 Read More
 

Dynasty Trading Post: Season Recap, Trading Rules

Chad Parsons

Chad Parsons analyzes the dynasty trading market for strategy, target players, and team-building concepts.

12/24/24 Read More
 

High-Leverage Opportunities, Running Backs: Week 17

Chad Parsons

Running back production is fueled by goal-line carries and targets in the passing game. Chad Parsons breaks down high-leverage opportunities every week.

12/24/24 Read More
 

Cutting the Cord, Final Waiver Wire Moves: Week 17

Chad Parsons

Chad Parsons outlines fantasy football trade and drop player recommendations to make room for the next breakout player or key bye-week replacement.

12/24/24 Read More
 

The New Reality No.232: Lessons Learned, 2025 Strategy

Chad Parsons

From dynasty team-building and player evaluations to NFL research and forecasting, Chad Parsons covers dynasty fantasy football's landscape in The New Reality.

12/24/24 Read More