For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
TIPS AND PICKS
Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation. If you have questions about any of the recommendations or the process that led to them, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.
CASH GAMES
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Deshaun Watson | JAX | $6,900 |
Quarterbacks: There is only one cash game quarterback this week: Deshaun Watson against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Look for Watson to continue where he left off against the Vikings last week (23.9 DK points) when the Texans host the league's worst-ranked DVOA pass defense. Jacksonville has allowed 300+ passing yards and/or multiple touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks in every game this season and the list of quarterbacks they have faced is less than impressive (Philip Rivers, Ryan Tannehill, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Joe Burrow). With the departure of Bill O'Brien, fired earlier this week, we should expect the Texan to be fired up to get their first win of the season against the Jags; Vegas agrees and has pegged them with a 30-point implied team total, 4th-highest on the slate. This is a week to ignore Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes II in cash formats because of their heftier price and possibility of going run-heavy late in the game (which explains their absence here).
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Ezekiel Elliott | NYG | $7,800 |
Clyde Edwards-Helaire | LV | $6,800 |
Mike Davis | @ATL | $6,400 |
David Johnson | JAX | $5,200 |
Running Backs: Nearly a 10-point home favorite, the Cowboys should be expected to lean on Ezekiel Elliott this Sunday against the Giants. Elliott has yet to play with a winning gamescript in 2020, so we have not yet seen his fantasy ceiling, but we have seen his floor, which appears to be 20 touches and a shade under 20 DK points. Look for Dallas to try to set the pace of this game by feeding Elliott early and often; he makes for an excellent cash game and tournament selection. Another heavy home favorite, the Chiefs will feature first-round pick, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, against the Vegas Raiders at Arrowhead. Edwards-Helaire has not found paydirt since the season-opener despite 60 touches (and 83 points for the Chiefs) over his previous 3 contests. Look for positive scoring regression for the rookie running back and do not be surprised if he gets into the endzone multiple times. Elsewhere, Mike Davis makes a repeat appearance in this section after delivering value against the Cardinals in Week #4. Davis compiled over 100 all-purpose yards and a score to deliver 22.1 DK points. This week, DraftKings has raised his salary $700, but he is still in play versus the Falcons, who ironically allowed exactly 22.1 DK points to Aaron Jones (in a committee role) last Monday night. Lastly, feel free to hoard the Texans' fantasy points by going with the Deshaun Watson-David Johnson cash game combination. DJ is coming off an underwhelming week that also saw his snap count decrease, but the gamescript favored his stablemate, Duke Johnson Jr, as the Texans trailed throughout that contest. This week, the Texans are 5.5-point favorites and "David" faces a Jaguars run defense that made Joe Mixon a GPP staple just a week ago.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Tyreek Hill | LV | $6,900 |
Terry McLaurin | LAR | $6,100 |
Robby Anderson | @ATL | $5,900 |
Darius Slayton | @DAL | $4,800 |
Olamide Zaccheaus | CAR | $3,000 |
Wide Receivers: Typically more of a GPP play, Tyreek Hill tops the list of cash game wide receiver options this weekend. Hill has been a model of consistency in 2020, scoring in every Chiefs' contest; he matches up against the Raiders' Lamarcus Joyner, who is currently rated as ProFootballFocus' 3rd-worst coverage cornerback in the league. Cementing the deal is that Joyner's 40-yard dash time topped out at 4.55-seconds--he'll be chasing "TyFreak" all afternoon. The only glimmer of hope in Washington these days is their defense and Terry McLaurin. McLaurin has been stellar, despite poor quarterback play, and has capitalized on pass-heavy gamescripts to this point in the season. We can expect McLaurin to get a heavy dose of Jalen Ramsey in the nation's capital on Sunday, but there is no reason to expect the gamescript to change with Kyle Allen under center and we have seen (in 2019) how Allen typically locks onto a receiver for the duration of a game; given the lack of alternatives in Washington, McLaurin looks like a safe call to be on the other end of Allen's passes on Sunday. In Carolina, it appears that Robby Anderson has catapulted past D.J. Moore for the title of WR1 for the Panthers. Anderson has outscored Moore in every game this season and is actually $100 cheaper to boot. Having allowed 90+ receiving yards to 5 different receivers prior to this weekend, the Falcons pose no threat to slow down Anderson's resurgence. In Dallas, Darius Slayton gets a tasty personnel matchup against the Cowboys' horrid secondary in a gamescript that implies significant passing from the Giants. After opening the season with 31.2 DK points against the Steelers, Slayton has posted back-to-back-to-back stinkers against tough defenses; look for him to rebound against the softest defense he and the Giants have faced to this point in the season. Lastly, strictly a punt option, Olamide Zaccheaus is coming off a week that saw him finish as the Falcons' leading receiver against the Packers. With Julio Jones looking on the doubtful side of questionable and lingering concerns about Calvin Ridley's ankle, Zaccheaus is a reasonable salary-saving option against the Panthers' league-worst (DVOA) defense.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
George Kittle | MIA | $6,600 |
Evan Engram | @DAL | $4,600 |
Tight Ends: After missing a pair of games with a knee injury, George Kittle returned with a vengeance last Sunday night, collecting 15 receptions for 183 yards and a score. No tight end in the league, save Darren Waller, has a more clear stranglehold on his team's receiving targetshare than Kittle when healthy. Paying up at tight end is typically not an advisable practice for cash games, but given that Kittle is used more as a wide receiver than a tight end, his $6.6K salary is entirely reasonable. If, however, you are looking for ways to save salary, Evan Engram is an acceptable backup option for the same rationale already described for Darius Slayton (above). The Giants should be playing catchup in this contest and Dallas has been generous to opposing tight ends, allowing them to score in each of their previous three games.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Ravens | CIN | $3,900 |
Texans | JAX | $2,500 |
Team Defenses: If you have the excess salary, slotting in the Ravens at the team defense position should be an easy click against the Bengals this weekend. Cincinnati is coming off their first win of the season against the Jaguars, but the Ravens' 8th-ranked DVOA defense is a far contrast from the Jags 30th-ranked (DVOA) defense. Baltimore has yet to allow an opposing running back to surpass 75 rushing yards and has allowed only 1 rushing touchdown this year; meanwhile, their secondary has allowed wide receivers to score in only one game this season. To save some cash, it is acceptable to take the Texans at home against the Jaguars. Rumors are surfacing that team leader J.J. Watt got into an argument that led to Bill O'Brien's firing this week, an event that could galvanize the clubhouse after an 0-4 start. The Texans are better than their record reflects, as they have started the season with games against Kansas City (4-0), Baltimore (3-1), Pittsburgh (3-0), and Minnesota (1-3).
TOURNAMENTS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
Patrick Mahomes II | LV | $7,700 | 8% |
Dak Prescott | NYG | $7,400 | 21% |
Gardner Minshew | @HOU | $6,200 | 3% |
Matt Ryan | CAR | $6,100 | 10% |
Teddy Bridgewater | @ATL | $5,900 | 9% |
Daniel Jones | @DAL | $5,400 | 7% |
DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
Kyle Allen | LAR | $4,100 | 4% |
FADE: | |||
Lamar Jackson | CIN | $7,900 | 6% |
Quarterbacks: No justification is necessary for Patrick Mahomes II and Dak Prescott--both quarterbacks have demonstrated immense upside across their career and have high implied team totals again this week. If you want to roster either of them, just remember to gain some roster uniqueness at other positions to differentiate your lineup(s). In Houston, the Vegas total has crept nearly 5 points from when it opened on Tuesday morning, which means the sharps think this game has a chance of shooting out. Assuming that were to happen, consider Gardner Minshew, who has posted 300+ yards in half of his games this season. Minshew got a boost last week with the return of D.J. Chark (who was recommended in this column as a 'deep sleeper' at 3%) en route to a 24.94-DK point performance. Minshew has quietly completed over 70% of his passes this season and is being overlooked if he ends up on less than 8-10% of tournament lineups. Elsewhere consider either quarterback playing in Atlanta (Matt Ryan or Teddy Bridgewater), as both defenses have not demonstrated an ability to slow any opposing offense in 2020. Lastly, Daniel Jones is dirt-cheap in a game that could see him heave the ball 35+ times against a porous secondary.
- Sleeper: Do not go overboard, but just about any starting NFL quarterback is worth a piece of your GPP portfolio when priced like a tight end. At only $4.1K, Kyle Allen should be in about 8-10% of your GPP lineups and paired Terry McLaurin ($10.2K stack total). The Washington Football Team has an implied team total of 20 points--if most (or all) of those come through Kyle Allen's arm, the Allen-McLaurin stack could easily deliver 40 DK points and still leave you with $40K to pile up on more sure things (i.e., Ezekiel Elliott) at other positions.
- Fade: As the most expensive quarterback on the slate and having missed practice on Wednesday/Thursday, there are better options than Lamar Jackson for quarterback this Sunday. Jackson could very well deliver, but the risk is real, particularly when the Ravens are nearly two-touchdown favorites agains the Bengals--it would not be surprising to see Baltimore lean on their triumvirate of running backs (Mark Ingram, J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards) to ensure that Jackson has an extra week to heal before testing his knee in a game where he is really needed.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
Miles Sanders | @PIT | $6,500 | 9% |
Kareem Hunt | IND | $6,500 | 19% |
Jonathan Taylor | @CLE | $6,200 | 4% |
DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
Devonta Freeman | @DAL | $4,600 | 8% |
FADE: | |||
James Robinson | @HOU | $6,700 | 12% |
Running Backs: Before you read any further, the best tournament running backs also happen to be cash game running backs this week. Load up on names like Clyde Edwards-Helaire, David Johnson, and Ezekiel Elliott and feel good about it. Beyond those more obvious plays, Miles Sanders gets consideration against the Steelers due to his premiere role in the Eagles offense and sub-10% crowd exposure. Also, you can consider either of the primary running backs in the Cleveland-Indianapolis game. Both Kareem Hunt and Jonathan Taylor have demonstrated significant upside this season and are expected to touch the ball ~ 20 times in that matchup; of the two options, a slight nod towards Taylor who will be found on less lineups and is offered at a slight discount.
- Sleeper: With Saquon Barkley (ACL) sidelined for the year, the Giants have been trying to get newly signed Devonta Freeman up to speed on the playbook. Freeman's share of offensive snaps jumped from 29% in his first week with the team to 54% last Sunday; we should expect that number to take another jump upwards on Sunday against the Cowboys, who have allowed two different running backs to score multiple touchdowns in a game this season. Freeman could generate momentum, in terms of percent-rostered, going into Sunday--if he final numbers land north of 10%, feel free to add him to the fade list. In other words, he is only viable as a tournament play if he ends up on less than 10% of rosters. Consult Devin Knott's Percent Rostered Projections on Sunday morning for the final call.
- Fade: We learned on Saturday afternoon that James Robinson could see additional touches, which could be construed as a positive outcome for his tournament viability on Sunday, but Robinson is too highly priced for his overall popularity. At present, we have him projected to be on ~ 12% of GPP rosters, which is about double where it should be--go underweight on JRob against an underrated Texans defense and plant your flag elsewhere.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
DeAndre Hopkins | @NYJ | $7,900 | 11% |
D.J. Chark | @HOU | $6,500 | 8% |
D.J. Moore | @ATL | $6,000 | 13% |
DeVante Parker | @SF | $5,900 | 4% |
Henry Ruggs | @KC | $4,700 | 4% |
Golden Tate | @DAL | $4,600 | 7% |
Isaiah Ford | @SF | $3,500 | 2% |
DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
Zach Pascal | CLE | $4,600 | 2% |
FADE: | |||
Amari Cooper | NYG | $7,400 | 27% |
Wide Receivers: Coming off a "bad" week that saw him collect a season-low nine targets, DeAndre Hopkins' salary has dropped $600 and he faces off against the Jets' Blessuan Austin, who was nearly cut this Summer and is nursing a calf injury entering this matchup. This is a potential blowup spot for Nuk and getting exposure to him at close to 10% is outstanding leverage against the field. Beyond Hopkins, both "DJs" are in play for their respective teams. D.J. Chark delivered for this column last week and could do so again versus the Texans in a potential barnburner; meanwhile, D.J. Moore is a borderline cash game play, but finds himself in the GPP section because of his inconsistent stat lines to this point in the season. Both bring multiple touchdown upside to your rosters and have better-than-average personnel matchups. In the Bay area, do not be afraid to pull the trigger with one of the Dolphins' primary receivers. Both DeVante Parker and Isaiah Ford should be heavily used in catchup mode; Parker has the higher upside, but Ford comes at a fraction of the price and offers salary savings, as needed. Lastly, stacking Henry Ruggs on the backend of a Patrick Mahomes II-Tyreek Hill-Travis Kelce stack makes a lot of sense. Ruggs has the type of quickness that can get him behind a defense in an instant, which could have him deliver GPP value in a single play.
- Sleeper: With Parris Campbell (knee) and Michael Pittman (compartment syndrome) sidelined for the season, the Colts receivers distill down to a combination of an elderly T.Y. Hilton, Zach Pascal, and a potpourri of tight ends. Pascal is coming off a week that saw him collect a season-high eight targets and looks to be emerging as the Colts' WR1. Pascal is a sneaky GPP option providing his percent-rostered numbers stay in the low single-digits. He represents the type of player you want to mix into a large-field GPP (i.e., Milly Maker) with the hope that he delivers a multiple touchdown afternoon, something that both CeeDee Lamb and Dontrelle Inman have done against the Browns over the previous two weeks.
- Fade: As discussed in the cash game section, this is a week where we should expect the Cowboys to level-set as an offense. They need to play ball-control offense, control the time-of-possession and run over the Giants in their first NFC East matchup of 2020. They are clearly the class of an otherwise trash division, but have dug themselves early holes through turnovers and poor defense through the first month of the season. Look for Dak Prescott to slow his torrid pace, which means that his receivers, including Amari Cooper at 27%, to follow suit. If Amari ends up in > 10% of your tournament lineups, it will have been too much.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
Travis Kelce | LV | $6,600 | 14% |
Darren Waller | @KC | $5,900 | 5% |
Zach Ertz | @PIT | $5,700 | 6% |
Chris Herndon | ARZ | $3,200 | 5% |
DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
Eric Ebron | PHL | $4,000 | 2% |
FADE: | |||
Dalton Schultz | NYG | $4,800 | 5% |
Tight Ends: The Raiders have been one of the better defenses in the league in defending tight ends, but they have faced three teams that do not use their tight end(s) often as receiving threats. That will change on Sunday when Travis Kelce takes the field in Arrowhead; Kelce is coming off a pair of scoreless games after starting the season with scores in each of the Chiefs' first two contests. Alongside Travis Kelce, he is the clear-cut high-upside tight end every week he plays. After Kelce, look to the other side of the field in that same matchup with Darren Waller. Waller is the focal point of the Raiders' passing offense and should see plenty of opportunity with the implied pass-heavy gamescript on Sunday. The Chiefs have allowed 80+ yards or a touchdown to every tight end they have faced in 2020, which along with Henry Ruggs' ability to stretch the field, bodes well for Waller's fantasy prospects. Elsewhere, the jury is out on what is wrong with Zach Ertz this season, but if he goes off in < 5% of rosters, count this author amongst those who are willing to take an upside swing with him in tournaments against the Steelers. Ertz is still the number-one receiving option in Philadelphia and the combination of his low price and percent-rostered projection make him a luring option. Lastly, the Arizona Cardinals have allowed tight ends to reach the endzone in back-to-back weeks and they will face Joe Flacco and a no-name list of receivers this weekend. Take a few chances with Chris Herndon and his bargain $3.2 salary; Joe Flacco made Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson fantasy-relevant at times while in Baltimore, so it would not be unreasonable to see Herndon deliver 60 yards and a touchdown on Sunday and reach GPP value on his salary.
- Sleeper: Apparently settling into his new confines, Eric Ebron found the endzone against the Texans in Week #3 and finished with a season-high 16.2 DK points. In Weeks #1-3, Ebron's snap count has increased from 40 to 50 to 60 and his receptions went from 1 to 3 to 5; it is not unreasonable to think that he needed a bit of a runway to get acclimated to the Steelers offense and Ben Roethlisberger's style, particularly given the lack of a preseason. Ebron will go overlooked against the Eagles, but do not sleep on him at less than 5% rostered because the Eagles have allowed 5 touchdowns to tight ends this season, including monster games to George Kittle (43.1 DK points) and Tyler Higbee (28.4 DK points) so far.
- Fade: If you have not determined yet that this article is recommending that you fade the Cowboys' pass offense on Sunday, you need to start back at the beginning. Add Dalton Schultz to the list of Cowboys who I will have less than the field. Schultz has put up solid games in two of the Cowboys' previous three contests, but gamescript factored heavily into that usage and his popularity, even at 5% of rosters, is not merited as the fifth or sixth option on Dallas' offense. He might not make it to this author's final player pool across 150 entries on Sunday.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
Rams | WAS | $4,000 | 8% |
Steelers | PHL | $3,800 | 8% |
Cowboys | NYG | $3,100 | 4% |
Jets | ARZ | $2,500 | 1% |
DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
Washington Football | LAR | $2,600 | 3% |
FADE: | |||
Chiefs | LV | $3,500 | 15% |
Team Defenses:
- Sleeper: Chase Young (groin) is expected to return this week and we should not sleep on the Washington Football Team's young defense at home against the Rams, who will travel cross-country for an early start in a potential letdown game. Washington's defense has admittedly been quiet since Week #1, where they compiled 15 DK points against Carson Wentz and the Eagles, but the potential is there and they are affordably priced at only $2.6K. Take the salary savings, hope for a defensive touchdown, and sprinkle between 4-8% of your lineups with this defense.
- Fade: After destroying the Patriots' makeshift quarterback situation on Monday night for 20 DK points, the public seems to have forgotten that the Chiefs defense is average, at best. Kansas City is projected to land on ~ 15% of tournament lineups, which is about 13% too high for the likelihood that they will achieve GPP value on their 3.5K salary. Kansas City is an easy fade in this matchup against the Raiders, not because Las Vegas represents a daunting opponent, but because there is no good rationale for dumping an average Chiefs defense into 15% of rosters...particularly given the volatile nature of scoring at this roster spot.