- Cardinals at Rams - Over/Under 54
- Seahawks at 49ers - Over/Under 52
- Panthers at Cowboys - Over/Under 51.5
- Browns at Vikings - Over Under 51.5
Favorite Additional Spots
- Bills at home against the Texans - Implied Team Total 32
- Chiefs on the road against the Eagles - Implied Team Total 30.5
- Saints at home against the Giants - Implied Team Total 24.25
- Packers at home against the Steelers - Implied Team Total 26.25
- Titans on the road against the Jets - Implied Team Total 25.5
- Washington on the road against the Falcons - Implied Team Total 24.5
|1||Josh Allen||vs. Texans||$8,000|
|2||Matthew Stafford||vs. Cardinals||$7,000|
|3||Aaron Rodgers||vs. Steelers||$6,800|
|4||Baker Mayfield||at Vikings||$6,200|
Josh Allen reminded us all what he's capable of last week throwing for 358 yards and four touchdowns while adding a rushing touchdown as well. He has shaken off the rust at the perfect time as he now gets to play at home against an awful Texans team and defense this week. Buffalo has the highest Implied Team Total of the entire week (32) and they're favored to win by 17 points. In order to dominate as projected, they'll need to score points and the Bills revolve around Allen. Have no fear a blowout could reduce Allen's role. In fact, odds are it would increase it. This is a spot where Allen could blow up big time.
Matthew Stafford is making the most of his career renaissance with Sean McVay. He ranks fifth in passing yards (940) and tied for second in pass touchdowns (9) and currently leads the #1 offense according to DVOA rankings. He now gets to play at home in my favorite fantasy game of the week with the second-highest Over/Under (54). We love games where both offenses have the ability to score points in bunches and with Kyler Murray on the other side, expect Stafford to stay hot by keeping his foot on the gas.
The vaunted Pittsburgh Steelers defense hasn't performed up to standards so far this season and they have injuries and Ben Roethlisberger to blame. Roethlisberger looks completely done and his incompetence is putting his defense in tough spots. The Steelers currently rank 18th in overall DVOA and 23rd in pass DVOA. These developments bode well for Aaron Rodgers, who gets to play at home in Lambeau Field and is priced at a relatively affordable cost.
This Browns at Vikings game is tied for the fourth-highest Over/Under (51.5) of the entire week and Baker Mayfield has a favorable matchup against a Vikings defense that ranks 25th in overall DVOA and 24th in pass DVOA. Meanwhile, Mayfield leads a Browns offense currently ranked fourth in DVOA that just gained their valuable #1 Wide Receiver, Odell Beckham Jr, back in Week 3. Beckham caught five of nine targets for 77 yards last Sunday and provides an added dimension to this offense that was previously lacking. That increases Mayfield's floor and ceiling combination and makes him a palatable cash game Quarterback priced at only $6,200.
|1||Derrick Henry||at Jets||$8,800|
|2||Alvin Kamara||vs. Giants||$8,400|
|3||Najee Harris||at Packers||$6,800|
|4||Ezekiel Elliott||vs. Panthers||$6,500|
|5||D'Andre Swift||at Bears||$6,200|
Derrick Henry leads the league in total opportunities (93) and total yards (458) and projects to see a ton of work once again in Week 4 now that both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones have been ruled out. The Titans are 5.5 point favorites, which should aid in game flow, but Henry is also excitingly catching passes this year as well. Henry's season-long high in receptions is 19 and he's on pace to shatter that record this year as he already has 12 through three games. This dual-threat usage should help since the Jets, despite how bad of a team they are, are actually somewhat competent defending the run.
Alvin Kamara ranks sixth in opportunities per game (22) and gets to plat at home against a Giants defense that ranks 23rd in both overall DVOA and run DVOA. New York will be without their starting Line Backer, Blake Martinez, as well. The Saints are seven-point favorites, setting Kamara up for a gigantic performance.
Najee Harris ranks fifth in opportunities per game (22.2) and just caught 14 of 19 targets for 102 yards last Sunday. Harris is the dual-threat centerpiece of the Steelers offense and has a favorable matchup against a Packers defense that ranks 18th in overall DVOA and 25th in run DVOA.
It's surprising to see Ezekiel Elliott priced at only $6,500, especially after he posted 116 total yards and two touchdowns on Monday Night Football in Week 3. Led by Dak Prescott, the Cowboys offense is rolling right now as they currently rank sixth in DVOA. Elliott is averaging a respectable 17 opportunities per contest and Dallas is at home in one of the best fantasy games of the week with a 51.5 Over/Under. And while Carolina's defense has looked great to begin 2021, I'm not ready to crown them just yet as they've played the Jets, Saints, and Texans. Prescott, Elliott, and this Cowboys attack is a different beast.
D'Andre Swift ranks ninth in opportunities per game (18.7) and is seeing a ton of high-value touches (targets and goal-line carries). Swift already has 19 catches on 23 targets for 166 receiving yards on the year to go along with 33 carries. Although the Lions are road underdogs against a decent Bears defense, Chicago's team as a whole clearly doesn't have it all together evident by their 20 point loss at the hands of the Browns last Sunday. There is a decent chance the Lions win this game and even if they don't, Swift is a player whose role can keep him on the field, no matter the game situation.
|1||Cooper Kupp||vs. Cardinals||$7,800|
|2||CeeDee Lamb||vs. Panthers||$6,700|
|3||Amari Cooper||vs. Panthers||$6,000|
|4||Justin Jefferson||vs. Browns||$7,300|
|5||Adam Thielen||vs. Browns||$6,800|
|6||Emmanuel Sanders||vs. Texans||$4,900|
|7||A.J. Green||at Rams||$4,500|
|8||Corey Davis||vs. Titans||$5,000|
|9||Tim Patrick||vs. Ravens||$4,900|
Cooper Kupp is on absolute fire. He ranks tied for second in targets (32), tied for first in receptions (25), first in receiving yards (367), and first in receiving touchdowns (5). He gets to play at home in my favorite fantasy game of the week with the second-highest Over/Under (54).
Led by Dak Prescott, the Cowboys offense is rolling right now as they currently rank sixth in DVOA. Surprisingly, the Panthers rank best in defensive DVOA overall, pass DVOA, and run DVOA. I'm not ready to crown them just yet though as they've played the Jets, Saints, and Texans. This Dallas passing attack is a different beast and they have a more favorable projected matchup now that first-round pick, cornerback Jaycee Horn, is out with an injury. The Cowboys get to play at home in one of the best fantasy games of the week with a 51.5 Over/Under. CeeDee Lamb (27 targets) and Amari Cooper (26 targets) lead the offense in target share by a wide margin and both make for great plays on Sunday.
Kirk Cousins is on an absolute tear to being 2021. He ranks seventh in passing yards (918), fourth in pass touchdowns (8), and he hasn't thrown an interception yet. This Browns at Vikings game is tied for the fourth-highest Over/Under (51.5) of the entire week, the Vikings get to play at home, and Browns cornerback Greg Newsome II is out. This is a favorable spot for two of the league's best Wide Receivers, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen.
The Bills get to play at home against an awful Texans team and defense this week. Buffalo has the highest Implied Team Total of the entire week (32) and they're favored to win by 17 points. Emmanuel Sanders only costs $4,900 yet he's played on 93%, 77%, and 80% of the offensive snaps through three weeks, respectively, and is coming off a brilliant performance catching five of six passes for 94 yards and two touchdowns a week ago.
A.J. Green has played on 80%, 84%, and 79% of the offensive snaps through three weeks, respectively, and is coming off a solid outing catching five of six targets for 112 yards. Jalen Ramsey projects to see plenty of DeAndre Hopkins, meaning a few extra targets could be coming Green's way in this one. And the fantasy environment should be solid in my favorite game of the week with the second-highest Over/Under (54).
Elijah Moore won't play in Week 4 due to a concussion which leaves Corey Davis as the main target on the outside for the Jets. Davis has played on 89%, 73%, and 94% of the offensive snaps through three weeks, respectively. After a rough patch of early matchups, things are looking up for Davis in this one against a Titans defense that ranks 28th in overall DVOA and 22nd in pass DVOA.
Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler will both miss this game, which vaults Tim Patrick into the clear-cut WR2 role for Denver. In fact, Patrick was already operating as such. Patrick has played on 70%, 74%, and 76% of the offensive snaps through three weeks, respectively, and has posted 174 receiving yards and two touchdowns on only 13 total targets. Patrick's role projects to continuing growing and the matchup is more favorable than expected against a Ravens defense that ranks 20th in overall DVOA and 21st in pass DVOA.
|1||Tyler Higbee||vs. Cardinals||$4,600|
|2||Kyle Pitts||vs. Washington||$5,000|
|3||Logan Thomas||at Falcons||$4,900|
|4||Dawson Knox||vs. Texans||$3,600|
|5||Evan Engram||at Saints||$3,000|
Tyler Higbee played on 100% of the snaps in Weeks 1 and 2 and likely would've done so again last week had he not left briefly with an injury. Higbee still caught all five of his targets for 40 yards and a touchdown and now gets to play at home in my favorite fantasy game of the week with the second-highest Over/Under (54). Higbee remaind underpriced at only $4,600.
We must not get impatient with Kyle Pitts. Despite his incredible production and athletic profile, it's important to remember Pitts is still a rookie Tight End. Matt Ryan performing poorly isn't helping either but unlike Ben Roethlisberger, I remain hopeful Ryan isn't completely done and has some decent football left in him. And this week the Falcons get to play at home against a Washington defense struggling mightily to begin the 2021 season. Washington ranks 29th in overall defensive DVOA and 28th in pass DVOA. Meanwhile, Pitts played on 52 of 62 snaps last week and only ran four fewer routes than Calvin Ridley.
Logan Thomas was notorious for never coming off the field last season and nothing has changed to begin 2021. In fact, dating back to last season, Thomas has played on 100% of Washington's offensive snaps in seven consecutive games (including postseason). He's played on 90%+ in 13 straight and 97%+ in 12 of the last 13. Clearly, Thomas is an integral part of Washington's offense and he has a favorable matchup in this one against a Falcons defense that ranks 30th in overall DVOA and 26th in pass DVOA.
Dawson Knox has played on 83% and 78% of the offensive snaps over the past two weeks, respectively, and scored a touchdown in both games. He now gets to play in an incredible spot where Josh Allen projects to go nuclear. Buffalo has the highest Implied Team Total of the entire week (32) and they're favored to win by 17 points.
Evan Engram returned from injury last week to play on only 56% of the snaps yet he still ran 29 pass routes (one less than Kenny Golladay) according to Pro Football Focus. With Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton both out and Engram another week removed from injury, expect Engram's playing time and target share to increase on Sunday. New Orleans is a tough matchup but Engram projects to see a decent amount of targets and is priced at only $3,000.
|1||Green Bay Packers||vs. Steelers||$3,300|
|2||Buffalo Bills||vs. Texans||$4,300|
|3||New Orleans Saints||vs. Giants||$3,800|
Ben Roethlisberger looked like he was completely done last week and quite frankly, he's looked like this for quite some time now dating back to last season. Roethlisberger threw two interceptions and was sacked four times by the Bengals of all defenses. The Packers defense has gotten off to a slow start but they still have playmakers and get to play this one at home as seven-point favorites.
Davis Mills is in a really tough situation here. He wasn't supposed to start this early and is playing on one of the worst teams in football surrounded by mediocre talent outside of Brandin Cooks. He now has to go on the road to face a Bills defense that ranks second in overall DVOA, second in pass DVOA, and fifth in run DVOA. The Bills are 17 point favorites and the Texans have the lowest Implied Team Total (15) of the week.
The Saints get to play at home and their defense is off to a hot start in 2021. New Orleans ranks third in overall DVOA, sixth in pass DVOA, and third in run DVOA. Daniel Dimes is a turnover machine, the Giants offensive line is struggling, and both Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton will miss this contest. The Giants have the second-lowest Implied Team Total (17.25) of the week.
|1||Kyler Murray||at Rams||$7,800|
|2||Patrick Mahomes II||at Eagles||$8,100|
|3||Russell Wilson||at 49ers||$7,100|
|4||Dak Prescott||vs. Panthers||$6,700|
Kyler Murray leads all Quarterbacks in DraftKings points per game (31.7) thanks to ranking third in passing yards (1,006), tied for sixth in pass touchdowns (7), and he's added a rush touchdown in every game. Murray's dual-threat skillset is a cheat code for fantasy football, especially when he plays in shootouts that push him and the Cardinals offense to take it to the next level in hopes of getting the win. Excitingly, Murray is playing in my favorite fantasy game of the week with the second-highest Over/Under (54). The NFC West is stacked with four very good teams and currently, both the Cardinals and Rams sit atop the division at 3-0. Get your popcorn ready for this one.
Let's just tell it like it is. The Chiefs are 1-2 and have stumbled out of the gate against two quality teams in the Ravens and the Chargers. The Eagles are also 1-2 and have similar losses against solid opponents in the 49ers and Cowboys. But Patrick Mahomes II and Andy Reid are not losing this game to Jalen Hurts and Nick Sirianni. Zooming out, we remember Andy Reid is one of the best coaches in NFL History and the Chiefs have been to two Super Bowls and won one over the past two seasons. Meanwhile, we have no idea if Sirianni will ever be a good coach in this league, or how long he'll last for that matter. And we also don't even know if Hurts will make it the full season as Philadelphia's starter or if he'll even be starting in Week 5 with Deshaun Watson trade rumors starting to loudly resurface. On offense, the Eagles will be without both of their starting Guards Brandon Brooks and Isaac Seumalo and they'll also be without their starting Left Tackle Jordan Mailata. On defense, Philadelphia will be missing their starting Safety K'Von Wallace. This is a get-right game for the Chiefs and since their offense revolves around Mahomes, we know what's going to happen. And what's funny is there have been narratives floating around in the media this week that Mahomes doesn't look right and/or is struggling. He still ranks sixth in passing yards (940) and tied for second in pass touchdowns (9). Ya, I think he's going to be just fine.
I'm really into this Seahawks at 49ers game. I've been anxiously waiting for these NFC West duals to kick off since all four teams are plenty capable of lighting up the scoreboard and paired together in matchups where they're fighting for their lives in the toughest division in the NFL, shootouts become even more possible. And this is not the typical stout 49ers defense that we remember. Their 2020 defensive coordinator, Robert Saleh, is now the head coach for the Jets and Cornerback K'Waun Williams won't play and cornerback Josh Norman is doubtful. San Francisco's defense only ranks 19th in overall DVOA and 16th in pass DVOA. Russell Wilson currently leads the #2 ranked offense according to DVOA and ranks eighth in passing yards (895) and tied for sixth in pass touchdowns (7). Playing in the third-highest Over/Under (52) game of the week, Wilson is a solid leverage play after a down performance in Week 3.
Dak Prescott has had an incredible start to the year after coming back from his devastating 2020 season-ending injury. The Cowboys are 2-1 and could be 3-0 if not for a close loss to the Super Bowl Champions on opening night. Dallas' offense currently ranks sixth in DVOA and Prescott ranks first in completion percentage (77.5%), tenth in passing yards (878), and is tied for tenth in pass touchdowns (6). He gets to play at home in one of the best fantasy games of the week with a 51.5 Over/Under and the Panthers will be missing their first-round pick, cornerback Jaycee Horn.
|1||Antonio Gibson||at Falcons||$6,100|
|2||Nick Chubb||at Vikings||$7,000|
|3||Dalvin Cook||vs. Browns||$8,100|
|4||Clyde Edwards-Helaire||at Eagles||$5,400|
|5||Aaron Jones||vs. Steelers||$7,700|
|6||Chris Carson||at 49ers||$6,300|
Antonio Gibson is listed as Questionable with a shin injury but head coach Ron Rivera said on Friday he is "pretty confident" Gibson will be able to play. If so, Gibson is in a great spot here against a Falcons defense that ranks 30th in overall DVOA and 24th in run DVOA. Gibson ranks 11th in opportunities per game (18) and Washington is a 1.5 point favorite.
This Browns at Vikings game is tied for the fourth-highest Over/Under (51.5) of the entire week and I like betting on Cleveland's offense here against a Vikings defense that ranks 25th in overall DVOA and 27th in run DVOA. Cleveland's offense ranks fourth in DVOA and their strength, their offensive line and running game, pairs well with a great game environment and matchup. Nick Chubb averages a respectable 17 opportunities per game and is a great leverage play off of more chalky Running Back plays this week.
We were reminded just how incredible the Vikings' Running Back role is last week when Alexander Mattison stepped right in for an injured Dalvin Cook to receive 34 opportunities (26 carries and 8 targets). Mattison turned 32 touches into 171 total yards. This is essentially what Cook did for fantasy managers on a weekly basis last year and it appears after a one-week absence he'll step right back into the starting lineup on Sunday. Cook participated on a limited basis in every practice this week and now gets to play at home in a favorable fantasy game that is tied for the fourth-highest Over/Under (51.5).
Clyde Edwards-Helaire was hilariously priced at only $4,800 last week against a run funnel Chargers defense and shockingly, was not nearly as high owned (less than 20% in multiple contests) as I had imagined. He delivered for those that rostered him, rushing for 100 yards and catching a screen pass for a touchdown. His price has only increased by $600 this week and I expect many to continue fading him. Yet this is an awesome get-right game for Kansas City and a favorable matchup for their offense. Edwards-Helaire averages a respectable 16.3 opportunities per game and gets an Eagles defense that ranks 22nd in run DVOA. The Chiefs are 6.5 point favorites and have an Implied Team Total of 30.5 points.
On paper to many, this will likely look and feel like a tough spot for Aaron Jones. But the vaunted Pittsburgh Steelers defense hasn't performed up to standards so far this season and they have injuries and Ben Roethlisberger to blame. Roethlisberger looks completely done and his incompetence is putting his defense in tough spots. The Steelers currently only rank 18th in overall DVOA yet it is important to note they do still rank sixth in run DVOA. Still, the Packers are seven-point home favorites and Jones offers multi-touchdown upside every single week in this Green Bay offense led by Aaron Rodgers.
I considered writing about Chuba Hubbard here but DraftKings has gotten so sharp over the years with their Running Back pricing. Hubbard costs $5,900 where in years past he would've been like $4,500 despite the injury to Christian McCaffrey. You only have to pay $400 extra to get up to Chris Carson, who averages a decent 15.3 opportunities per game on the currently ranked #2 offense in football according to DVOA. This is not the typical stout 49ers defense that we remember. Their 2020 defensive coordinator, Robert Saleh, is now the head coach for the Jets and San Francisco only ranks 19th in overall DVOA and 16th in run DVOA. Playing in the third-highest Over/Under (52) game of the week, Carson is an intriguing tournament bet that is sure to go overlooked.
|1||Stefon Diggs||vs. Texans||$7,600|
|2||Tyreek Hill||at Eagles||$8,000|
|3||Davante Adams||vs. Steelers||$7,900|
|4||DK Metcalf||at 49ers||$7,200|
|5||Deebo Samuel||vs. Seahawks||$6,500|
|6||Brandon Aiyuk||vs. Seahawks||$5,000|
|7||Robert Woods||vs. Cardinals||$5,300|
|9||D.J. Moore||at Cowboys||$6,600|
|10||Odell Beckham Jr||at Vikings||$5,800|
|11||Christian Kirk||at Rams||$5,300|
Buffalo has the highest Implied Team Total of the entire week (32) and they're favored to win by 17 points. Josh Allen is going to have a field day here and his #1 target will likely be coming with him. Stefon Diggs ranks tied for sixth in the league in targets (31) yet hasn't produced a monster performance yet. In a very favorable matchup, it's happening for Diggs this week. I'm planting my flag on 30+ DraftKings points.
After two down games, Tyreek Hill is a great tournament play this week in a get-right spot for the Chiefs offense. Hill's upside is immense and he's already reminded us of that this year catching 11 of 15 targets for 197 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 against the Browns.
Davante Adams is a very intriguing tournament play since this matchup on paper doesn't appear to be a great one, likely keeping his ownership percentage low. Yet Ben Roethlisberger is playing awful and putting his defense in tough spots. This is in part why the Steelers defense currently ranks 18th in overall DVOA and 23rd in pass DVOA. Meanwhile, not surprisingly at all, Adams leads the league in targets (34) and could even see a few more than usual this week with Marquez Valdes-Scantling out due to injury.
Tyler Lockett practiced Friday and is expected to play despite being listed as Questionable with a hip injury. Still, he likely won't be 100% in this spot and that increases the outlook for Seattle's only other legitimate passing game weapon in DK Metcalf. Metcalf has seen 20 total targets over the past two weeks and put up 107 yards and a touchdown last Sunday. His matchup is a favorable one against a 49ers defense that will be without cornerback K'Waun Williams and likely cornerback Josh Norman (listed as doubtful) as well. San Francisco's defense only ranks 19th in overall DVOA and 16th in pass DVOA. I want exposure to Seattle in one of the best fantasy games of the week with the third-highest Over/Under (52) and Metcalf is the clear choice to get it.
Part of the fun in playing DFS tournaments is trying to decode which Wide Receivers are both underpriced and will be underowned in comparison to their actual usage and production. Deebo Samuel is certainly one of those players this week. Samuel ranks tied for ninth in the league in targets (30), tied for tenth in receptions (20), and second in receiving yards (334). Whether George Kittle plays or not, it certainly sounds like he won't be 100%. That should push a higher target share Samuel's way in one of the best fantasy games of the week and in a great matchup against a Seahawks defense that ranks 24th in overall DVOA and 27th in pass DVOA. But let's not forget about Brandon Aiyuk either, who can be rostered for $1,500 cheaper. After a strange start to the year, Aiyuk played on 86% of the snaps in Week 3, catching four of six targets for 37 yards and a touchdown. Seemingly fully healthy now from his hamstring injury and out of Kyle Shanahan's "doghouse", Aiyuk offers immense upside at an affordable price in this favorable matchup.
I refuse to panic about Robert Woods after only three weeks. Woods has reception totals of 86, 90, and 90 over the past three seasons and now is playing in a better offense with a Quarterback upgrade. And he hasn't even been that bad to begin the year. Woods scored a TD in Week 1 and had five catches for 64 yards on nine targets in Week 2. Woods has played on 77%, 98%, and 88% of the offensive snaps over the first three weeks, respectively, and now gets to play in my favorite fantasy game of the week with the second-highest Over/Under (54). Woods will be very low owned due to overreaction to a small three-week sample size and I want to capitalize on that from a tournament game theory perspective.
D.J. Moore is another superstar that isn't priced according to the production he has brought to the table so far in 2021. Moore ranks tied for sixth in the league in targets (31), tied for fifth in receptions (22), and eighth in receiving yards (285) and projects to receive a boost in target share with Christian McCaffrey out of the lineup. And this projects as a fun fantasy game with a 51.5 Over/Under.
Odell Beckham Jr returned last week to immediately receive a 31% target share in Cleveland's offense. Beckham caught five of nine targets for 77 yards and even turned a carry into ten yards rushing as well. With his pal Jarvis Landry out due to injury, expect Beckham to continue to be a focal point on offense for the Browns. With this kind of usage, it's only a matter of time before we see a patented blowup game for Beckham in a Kevin Stefanski-led offense that ranks fourth in DVOA. And this spot against a Vikings defense that ranks 25th in overall DVOA and 24th in pass DVOA presents an intriguing opportunity for just that.
Christian Kirk has played on 57%, 62%, and 57% of the snaps through three weeks, respectively, and has team ranks on the Cardinals of tied for second in receptions (17), first in receiving yards (239), and second in receiving touchdowns (2). How can Kirk be producing with three other quality Wide Receivers around him in Arizona you ask? Outside of the obvious answers this team has no reliable Tight End and is one of the best fantasy offenses in the NFL, the true response for me is that Kirk is finally consistently playing his natural slot position. Kirk has lined up in the slot on 90.4% of his snaps so far this season after only doing so on 16.3% of his snaps in 2020. This is a significant development I don't believe is garnering the attention it should. Because of this usage change, I don't see Kirk's early-season production as a fluke and I don't see his week-to-week volatility being as severe as it was a year ago. Yet, the upside remains and this is my favorite fantasy game of the week where plenty of points should be scored.
|1||Travis Kelce||at Eagles||$8,100|
|2||George Kittle||vs. Seahawks||$5,900|
|3||Austin Hooper||at Vikings||$3,700|
|4||Tyler Conklin||vs. Browns||$3,500|
|5||Tommy Tremble||at Cowboys||$2,500|
This is a get-right game for the Chiefs and that means we should see plenty of Travis Kelce. Kelce only ranks tied for 19th in targets (26) and tied for tenth in receptions (20) yet still ranks seventh in the entire league in receiving yards (289) and tied for sixth in receiving touchdowns (3). Kelce is astutely priced high enough by DraftKings where his ownership percentage naturally is going to remain relatively low and that's exactly what we want to see in tournaments. Get those Patrick Mahomes II and Travis Kelce stacks ready.
George Kittle is questionable with a calf injury and was only able to log a limited participation in practice on Friday so tread lightly here. But if Kittle is active he's the best leverage off of Travis Kelce on the slate. Kyle Shanahan finally started to get Kittle going last week, getting him nine targets which turned into seven receptions for 92 yards. And now Kittle gets to play at home against a bad Seahawks defense that ranks 24th in overall DVOA and 27th in pass DVOA in one of the best fantasy games of the week with the third-highest Over/Under (52).
Austin Hooper continues to split time with not only David Njoku, but Harrison Bryant as well. I normally wouldn't continue writing about a Tight End in a three-way timeshare but the Browns don't have a normal offense. Cleveland ranks fourth in offensive DVOA despite Hooper and Kareem Hunt ranking tied for first in targets on the team with only 11. This offense runs through their Running Backs, Tight Ends, and Odell Beckham Jr. With Jarvis Landry out again this week, that should funnel a few more targets to the Tight Ends and Hooper is only $3,700. He's affordable enough to keep betting on an upside game and this could be the week in a favorable fantasy matchup against a Vikings defense that ranks 25th in overall DVOA and 24th in pass DVOA.
Tyler Conklin has played on 71%, 80%, and 72% of the offensive snaps through three weeks, respectively. He is the Irv Smith replacement and after a few weeks where it appeared Minnesota had completely shifted their offensive philosophy to more of a three Wide Receiver attack with K.J. Osborn, we are now seeing the Vikings trend back toward what they want to be as Osborn has only played on 59% of the snaps in both Weeks 2 and 3. Conklin caught seven of eight targets for 70 yards and a touchdown last week and now gets to play in one of the best fantasy games of the week with a 51.5 Over/Under.
Dan Arnold was traded to the Jaguars this week, which means Tommy Tremble now projects as Carolina's starting Tight End. Tremble hasn't played many snaps as of yet but he did catch a pass for 30 yards and run in a touchdown last week on only 26% of the snaps. What intrigued me the most about that performance was during the broadcast, the announcers made it a point to mention the Panthers' coaching staff put in plays specifically for Tremble as they wanted to get him going. Clearly, that gameplan worked, albeit in very limited action. Still, Tremble is only $2,500, projects to see his playing time increase quite drastically this week, and will be extremely low owned despite playing in a favorable fantasy game.
|1||Tennessee Titans||at Jets||$3,900|
|2||Indianapolis Colts||at Dolphins||$2,700|
|3||Miami Dolphins||vs. Colts||$3,200|
|4||Detroit Lions||at Bears||$2,200|
Zach Wilson leads the league in interceptions (7) and sacks (15). That's a recipe for success when streaming D/ST against the Jets offense. The Titans are 5.5 point favorites and the Jets have the third-lowest Implied Team Total (19) of the week.
This Colts at Dolphins game sports the third-lowest Over/Under (42) of the week and features an injured Carson Wentz vs. Jacoby Brissett. I want to roster a D/ST in this game and both the Colts and Dolphins are in play. Indianapolis will be without their All-Pro Guard Quenton Nelson and Miami gets to play at home as 2.5 point favorites. The Dolphins also have the better defense according to DVOA as they rank seventh-best in the league. Yet The Colts defense is $500 cheaper and face a Quarterback in Brissett who has yet to throw a touchdown pass despite extended playing time in two straight weeks.
The Bears are a complete mess of an organization right now and head coach Matt Nagy is refusing to name a starting Quarterback until Sunday morning. Andy Dalton isn't good and isn't healthy, Justin Fields had an embarrassingly bad performance ins his first start in Week 3, and Nick Foles was unwatchable in 2020. The opposing defense can be rostered for only $2,200.
Key Injuries and Suspensions
- Christian McCaffrey OUT - Upgrade Chuba Hubbard, D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, and Terrace Marshall Jr
- A.J. Brown and Julio Jones OUT - Upgrade Derrick Henry, Chester Rogers, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
- Tyler Lockett Questionable and D'wayne Eskridge Doubtful - Upgrade DK Metcalf and Freddie Swain
- Jarvis Landry OUT - Upgrade Odell Beckham Jr, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Rashard Higgins, Anthony Schwartz, and Austin Hooper
- Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler OUT - Upgrade Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, Noah Fant, and Albert Okwuegbunam
- Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton OUT - Upgrade Evan Engram, Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney, Collin Johnson, and C.J. Board
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling OUT - Upgrade Davante Adams, Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, and Robert Tonyan Jr
- Elijah Mitchell Questionable - Upgrade Trey Sermon
- George Kittle Questionable - Upgrade Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Mohamed Sanu, and Ross Dwelley
- Chase Claypool Questionable and Did Not Practice Friday - Upgrade Diontae Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, James Washington, and Najee Harris
- Jaycee Horn (Panthers Cornerback) OUT - Upgrade Cowboys passing attack
- K'Waun Williams OUT and Josh Norman Doubtful (49ers Cornerbacks) - Upgrade the Seahawks passing game
- Marcus Maye (Jets Safety) OUT - Upgrade Titans offense
- K'Von Wallace (Eagles Safety) OUT - Upgrade Chiefs offense
- Greg Newsome II (Browns Cornerback) OUT - Upgrade Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen
- Blake Martinez (Giants Line Backer) OUT - Upgrade Alvin Kamara
- Brandon Brooks and Isaac Seumalo (Eagles Guards) + Jordan Mailata (Eagles Left Tackle) all OUT - Upgrade Chiefs D/ST
- Terron Armstead (Saints Left Tackle) OUT - Upgrade Giants D/ST
- Tua Tagovailoa OUT - Upgrade Raiders D/ST
- Quenton Nelson OUT - Upgrade Dolphins D/ST
- Elijah Moore OUT - Upgrade Corey Davis, Jamison Crowder, Keelan Cole, and Denzel Mims
- Russell Gage OUT - Upgrade Kyle Pitts, Calvin Ridley, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Olamide Zaccheaus
- Dan Arnold TRADED - Upgrade Tommy Tremble
- Gerald Everett Questionable - Upgrade Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Freddie Swain, and Will Dissly
Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays
- Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs
- Patrick Mahomes II, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill
- Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf and Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk
- Kyler Murray, Christian Kirk, and Robert Woods
- Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham Jr