SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE:
Each Sunday Morning, check back here to see if there are any updates to the primary cash game lineup. Hit me up on Twitter with any questions
Note: This year the Sunday Morning Update will require a Footballguys DFS subscription.
Sunday Morning Update #2: 12:00PM EST
In somewhat surprising news, Trey Sermon is inactive for this game. This shoots Raheem Mostert into a top play category this week. The question is whether to pull Najee Harris or James Robinson, and I'm going to pull Harris out of my lineup, mostly because I have been wanting to get up to Denver's defense all morning.
- QB Kyler Murray- ARI- $8,400
- RB James Robinson- JAC-$5,900
- RB Raheem Mostert- SF- $6,100
- WR- Terry McLaurin, WAS, $6,900
- WR Tee Higgins, CIN, $6,000
- WR Marquez Callaway, NO, $5,200
- TE Travis Kelce, KC, $8,500
- Flex RB- Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,600
- TD Denver Broncos, $4,100
Sunday Morning Update:
I've spent probably 2 hours going back and forth on whether to play the primary lineup in the article (Kelce+Najee Harris), or the secondary lineup (Hockenson+Cook). They're both great plays, but at the end of the day, I think Kelce+Harris is just a little bit safer. My biggest worry for Cook is that he didn't play at all in the preseason, which in a 17 game season, could lead to the Vikings easing him into this game. If Cook gets 15-17 carries instead of his normally 20+, then it will be a mistake to take Cook this week.
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
- Kansas City (vs Cle) – 30.25 points
- Tennessee (vs ARI) – 27.5 points
- Buffalo (vs PIT)- 27.5 points
- Green Bay (at NO) – 27 points
- Seattle (at IND)- 26.5 points
- San Francisco (at DET)- 26.25 points
Cash Game Strategy- Week 1 Tip
Game Selection- Head to Head over 50/50’s?
If you’ve been a reader of this article for the last several years, you know how this tip goes, but it is an important one to touch on each Week 1, as far too often we hear how multi-entry 50/50 cut lines are higher than even the minimum cash lines for GPP’s. The real benefit of head to heads is bankroll management. Most 50/50 or double up contests especially the big one’s are going to have a similar cash line across the board. What this ultimately means is that your lineup is either going to win everything or lose everything, so if you are in the 49th percentile of lineups you will lose 100% of your entries for those contests. Conversely if you have a large enough sample size on head to heads you will only lose maybe 5-10% of your bankroll. From a sample size standpoint, my recommendation is to have at least 10-20 head to heads even if that means you’re playing $1 games.
If you are going to do anything to help your ROI this year, start tracking your opponents. Create a spreadsheet or a piece of paper and really evaluate the rosters of the people that you are facing. The one piece of advice is that people do not spend enough time evaluating who they are facing, but instead just blindly enter contests. The one thing is that don’t just look at the amount of points your opponent scores, but instead look at the roster construction. If it is a solid construction you may not want to play that opponent each week and have to rely on a coin flip. Instead, try to find people who build fundamentally different rosters than you, maybe someone who makes mistakes and doesn’t play the top owned players.
If you blindly enter head to heads, or do not want to have a large enough sample size, the next best contest is to find the biggest single entry 50/50 that you can find
Update for 2021- Single Entry GPP’s:
An underutilized contest that does not get talked about nearly enough are the Single Entry GPP’s. These typically have a lower cash line than even 50/50’s, so if you are against playing Head-to-Heads, take a look at these contests. There are far too many people who treat them similarly to a big GPP, and have lineups that have crazy stacks and off the wall plays that in a Single Entry contest there is simply no need to do. We will be continuing to monitor these contests this year to see if there is an edge and see how they compare to the 50/50’s and double ups as we look to help build your bankroll.
Injuries Create Opportunity:
Austin Ekeler is a bit of a conundrum here as he is dealing with a hamstring injury and has missed two days of practice this week. It looks like Ekeler will give it a go this week. If for some reason he doesn’t, we will be back to the Justin Jackson debate. Jackson dealt with his own health issues last year, but in three games that he filled in for Ekeler, Jackson had 11.9, 8.0, and 15.7 fantasy points all without finding the end zone. He becomes a nice low-end value play as the matchup is a difficult one against Washington.
Odell Beckham is a slight concern, although it seems like he should be able to go this week. Beckham is returning from an ACL injury that had him miss most of the 2020 season. By all accounts Beckham has looked great in the offseason, running at full speed, “cutting on a dime”, but there was some concern in some comments made by Kevin Stefanski on Friday saying that they would evaluate Beckham and that he still has not been hit. This seems like gamesmanship, and is not something you should be worried about, although Beckham isn’t really in cash game consideration this week. If he were to scratch, Nick Chubb and the rushing attack should get a nice boost.
Tre’Quan Smith and Michael Thomas are both placed on IR to start the season which leaves the wide receiver options incredibly thin for the Saints. This is a situation in which Marquez Callaway is going to be the top rostered player this week on FanDuel cash games simply because of the value that he presents at just $5,300. Callaway looked great in the preseason and should see 8+ targets this week.
T.Y. Hilton will miss the start of the year with a neck injury. This should open up plenty of opportunity for Michael Pittman Jr and Parris Campbell. Of the two, Pittman seems to be the more interesting player coming off of his ten target playoff game last week against Buffalo. The Colts are facing a Seattle defense that is designed to stop the run, and has had issues stopping the past over the last few seasons.
Rookie Conundrum
Week 1 is a time in which there is a ton of excitement. People are coming off of their season long drafts, they’ve convinced themselves that the 9th-round rookie wide receiver is going to be great value and then they look at FanDuel and see the price of the player and immediately want to play them to provide cost savings. We wanted to take some time to breakdown the rookies, as for cash games, they should be treated a little bit differently.
Great Play:
Najee Harris- $6,500: Harris is in a unique spot in that he is going to be the number one running back in Pittsburgh without much competition. The Steelers allowed James Conner to depart to Arizona, and still have Benny Snell as their number two back as Anthony McFarland Jr was placed on IR. Harris is a true three-down running back as he caught 43 passes last season at Alabama and was a touchdown machine finding the end-zone 26 times. The Steelers even in their pass-heavy offense last season ran the ball 373 times and threw the ball to running backs 80 times completing 60 of them. At $6,500 Harris seems like a great value play going up against a Buffalo defense that was middle of the pack last season against the run as they are a defense poised to stop the pass.
Fringe Play
Kyle Pitts- $6,000: Kyle Pitts is tricky this week, as he will likely be the highest rostered tight end outside of Travis Kelce. Kyle Pitts is incredibly talented, but the problem is you are asking him to do something that a rookie tight end has never done. Over the last 30 years, Evan Engram leads rookie tight ends with 140.2 FanDuel points. Last season, T.J. Hockenson had 141.8 FanDuel points, and that was with Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay in Detroit. The Lions this year are turning to Hockenson to be the number one receiver in Detroit as they have Amon-Ra St. Brown and Tyrell Williams as the other receiving options in Detroit. Essentially, you are asking Kyle Pitts to be the best rookie tight end in NFL history (which is possible), but that is just to match Hockenson not accounting for any growth Hockenson may have. Hockenson is also $300 cheaper.
Realistically, the play at tight end is probably Travis Kelce, but if you are going to spend down at the tight end position, Hockenson is the way to go over Pitts.
Not Cash Game Playable:
You will likely see these players talked about this week, and you should probably avoid them. They are more DraftKings specific plays as the lineup construction is different on DraftKings where finding a low-end receiver is much more critical. The problem is with teams not really playing their starters in the offseason, we have no idea how these players are going to perform in Week 1. They are all great GPP players, but in a cash game setting, it’s hard to justify taking such a risk on some of these rookies.
Ja’Marr Chase
Jaylen Waddle
Devonta Smith
Elijah Moore
Cash Game Core Plays
Alvin Kamara- The Saints are incredibly limited at the offensive skill position this week. With no Michael Thomas, Tre’Quan Smith, and the release of Latavius Murray, this offense is all Kamara’s. The best part about this is that his price is significantly cheaper than players such as Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, and even Derrick Henry. Kamara is in for a big game this week going up against Green Bay.
Kyler Murray-$8,400
This was a tough one between Kyler Murray and Josh Allen and a lot of back and forth decisions that went into it. The difference maker is relatively straight forward. The Titans pass rush was completely non-existent last year and while they added Bud Dupree, it is still a front-seven that is extremely poor. We saw in the playoffs last season where Lamar Jackson had his way against this defense rushing for 136 yards and a touchdown. Kyler Murray was unbelievable to start the year in 2020 as he ran for 10 touchdowns in his first nine games of the season, and then it significantly fell off in the second half as he ran for just one touchdown in his final seven games. Murray entering his third season with Kliff Kingsbury should have a chance for a big week.
James Robinson-$5,900
How quickly we’ve forgotten about James Robinson after the Jaguars drafted Travis Etienne. Etienne is out for the season with a Lisfranc injury, which will once again put Robinson in the drivers seat to be the top running back in Jacksonville. Robinson finished as the 7th highest scoring running back on FanDuel in 2020 as he averaged 16 points per game. Facing a Houston defense that is one of the weakest units in football, this should be an opportunity for Robinson to once again show that he is the player that we saw last season. At $5,900 this is a scenario where his price is deflated likely because of the injury to Etienne.
Travis Kelce-$8,500
When it comes down to it, Travis Kelce is the safest play compared to the other players at his position. The best part about taking the Chiefs is that they are projected to score the most points on this slate, and we relatively know where that production is going to come from. The production is largely going to go through Kelce and Tyreek Hill. The other two players who were considered here was T.J. Hockenson who is a great option especially if you want to fit a Christian McCaffrey or Dalvin Cook into your lineup. However, the difference is what quarterback do we trust, and the difference between Mahomes/Goff is massive.
LINEUPS
SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 133.7)
- QB Kyler Murray- ARI- $8,400
- RB James Robinson- JAC-$5,900
- RB Najee Harris- PIT $6,500
- WR- Terry McLaurin, WAS, $6,900
- WR Tee Higgins, CIN, $6,000
- WR Marquez Callaway, NO, $5,200
- TE Travis Kelce, KC, $8,500
- Flex RB- Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,600
- TD Jacksonville Jaguars, $3,900
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – ALTERNATIVE CASH LINEUP OPTION Hockenson+Cook(FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 132.4)
- QB Kyler Murray- ARI- $8,400
- RB James Robinson- JAC-$5,900
- RB Dalvin Cook- MIN, $9,400
- WR- Terry McLaurin, WAS, $6,900
- WR Tyler Lockett, SEA, $6,800
- WR Marquez Callaway, NO, $5,200
- TE TJ Hockenson, DET, $5,800
- Flex RB- Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,600
- TD Cincinnati Bengals, $3,000
SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – GPP Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 128.7)
- QB Jalen Hurts- PHI- $7,600
- RB Derrick Henry, TEN, $8,900
- RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,600
- WR- Devonta Smith, PHI, $5,300
- WR Michael Pittman, IND, $5,300
- WR Marquez Callaway, NO, $5,200
- TE Travis Kelce, KC, $8,500
- Flex RB- Terry Mclaurin, WAS, $6,900
- TD New York Giants, $3,700
