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SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE:
Each Sunday Morning, check back here to see if there are any updates to the primary cash game lineup. Hit me up on Twitter with any questions
Note: This year the Sunday Morning Update will require a Footballguys DFS subscription.
Sunday Morning Update #2: 12:00PM EST
In somewhat surprising news, Trey Sermon is inactive for this game. This shoots Raheem Mostert into a top play category this week. The question is whether to pull Najee Harris or James Robinson, and I'm going to pull Harris out of my lineup, mostly because I have been wanting to get up to Denver's defense all morning.
- QB Kyler Murray- ARI- $8,400
- RB James Robinson- JAC-$5,900
- RB Raheem Mostert- SF- $6,100
- WR- Terry McLaurin, WAS, $6,900
- WR Tee Higgins, CIN, $6,000
- WR Marquez Callaway, NO, $5,200
- TE Travis Kelce, KC, $8,500
- Flex RB- Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,600
- TD Denver Broncos, $4,100
Sunday Morning Update:
I've spent probably 2 hours going back and forth on whether to play the primary lineup in the article (Kelce+Najee Harris), or the secondary lineup (Hockenson+Cook). They're both great plays, but at the end of the day, I think Kelce+Harris is just a little bit safer. My biggest worry for Cook is that he didn't play at all in the preseason, which in a 17 game season, could lead to the Vikings easing him into this game. If Cook gets 15-17 carries instead of his normally 20+, then it will be a mistake to take Cook this week.
- Kansas City (vs Cle) – 30.25 points
- Tennessee (vs ARI) – 27.5 points
- Buffalo (vs PIT)- 27.5 points
- Green Bay (at NO) – 27 points
- Seattle (at IND)- 26.5 points
- San Francisco (at DET)- 26.25 points
Cash Game Strategy- Week 1 Tip
Game Selection- Head to Head over 50/50’s?
If you’ve been a reader of this article for the last several years, you know how this tip goes, but it is an important one to touch on each Week 1, as far too often we hear how multi-entry 50/50 cut lines are higher than even the minimum cash lines for GPP’s. The real benefit of head to heads is bankroll management. Most 50/50 or double up contests especially the big one’s are going to have a similar cash line across the board. What this ultimately means is that your lineup is either going to win everything or lose everything, so if you are in the 49th percentile of lineups you will lose 100% of your entries for those contests. Conversely if you have a large enough sample size on head to heads you will only lose maybe 5-10% of your bankroll. From a sample size standpoint, my recommendation is to have at least 10-20 head to heads even if that means you’re playing $1 games.
If you are going to do anything to help your ROI this year, start tracking your opponents. Create a spreadsheet or a piece of paper and really evaluate the rosters of the people that you are facing. The one piece of advice is that people do not spend enough time evaluating who they are facing, but instead just blindly enter contests. The one thing is that don’t just look at the amount of points your opponent scores, but instead look at the roster construction. If it is a solid construction you may not want to play that opponent each week and have to rely on a coin flip. Instead, try to find people who build fundamentally different rosters than you, maybe someone who makes mistakes and doesn’t play the top owned players.
If you blindly enter head to heads, or do not want to have a large enough sample size, the next best contest is to find the biggest single entry 50/50 that you can find
Update for 2021- Single Entry GPP’s:
An underutilized contest that does not get talked about nearly enough are the Single Entry GPP’s. These typically have a lower cash line than even 50/50’s, so if you are against playing Head-to-Heads, take a look at these contests. There are far too many people who treat them similarly to a big GPP, and have lineups that have crazy stacks and off the wall plays that in a Single Entry contest there is simply no need to do. We will be continuing to monitor these contests this year to see if there is an edge and see how they compare to the 50/50’s and double ups as we look to help build your bankroll.
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