An ancient fantasy proverb states, "One can't win their league in Round 1, but one can lose it."
Getting a bust with your first pick hurts on a couple of levels:
- You miss out on first-round level production
- You are slow to bench your first pick because, my gosh, he's your first-round pick
So let's take a crack at avoiding getting a first-round bust. Here's what our staff has to say.
- Saquon Barkley - 3 votes
- Derrick Henry - 3
- Jonathan Taylor - 2
- Alvin Kamara - 2
- Dalvin Cook - 1
Let's take a look at all of their thoughts.
Ryan Weisse
Looking over the first round, I like every player and don't see much bust potential. I will say that there may be some problems for Jonathan Taylor, but the problems are not with him; they are with the Colts. Quarterback and offensive line injury issues could cause problems. Taylor has the talent, but if the Colts are bad, it will negatively affect him. Think back to Todd Gurley's second year, when the whole world knew he was getting the ball on every play. He ended with 220 fewer rushing yards and four fewer touchdowns on more carries. I still like Taylor, but more as a fantasy RB2.
Jeff Haseley
First-round busts are much more common from the running back position, so I'll focus on that area. The first-round running back that I am fading is Saquon Barkley. He may pull an Adrian Peterson, and everything is rainbows and roses a year after ACL reconstruction. In reality, however, that's not how the majority of ACL cases go.
Most recently, Dalvin Cook finished RB31 the year after his ACL injury. It takes time to fully heal and gain confidence in how structurally sound your knee is. Barkley is a true workhorse on the field and off, and he is approaching this the absolute correct way, but I am skeptical that it will take time to regain his form even with top rehabilitation. Plus, there is also the possibility of other injuries that could arise that we often see with players treating an injury. Outside of his health, there is also the uncertainty of the Giants offense, Daniel Jones, and Jason Garrett's play-calling that gives me some pause. My window for Barkley, if I even pull the trigger, is later in the second round. Based on previous running back ACL histories, I will be surprised if he finishes as top 10 back this year.
Dave Kluge
Heading into 2020, Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley were the safest picks you could make. They combined for five starts all season. Bust potential is everywhere in the first round, but as Jeff mentioned, it tends to plague running backs more than other positions. The two guys that jump out to me as potential busts are Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor, and their lack of usage in the passing game really pushes me away from drafting them in PPR leagues. Since I expect Taylor's stock to drop in the wake of injuries to Carson Wentz and Quenton Nelson, I'll focus on Henry.
I get it; Henry has defied the odds stacked against him and showed progression every year in the league. But with a top-five price tag, I'm out this year. Last season, Henry became the seventh running back in NFL history to eclipse the 2,000-yard mark. When looking at the other backs to hit that historic feat, they averaged just 1,072 yards and 7.8 touchdowns in their follow-up seasons.
That is skewed a bit by injuries to Jamal Lewis and Terrell Davis, but no running back was able to even reach 1,500 yards after rushing for 2,000. And of the backs to reach the 2k Club, only Barry Sanders did it at an older age than Henry. Over the last two years, Henry has seen a whopping 782 carries (including postseason), and no other running back has even seen 600 carries over that stretch.
The team’s offseason moves show that we could see a new-look Titans squad in 2021. They lost an elite run-blocker in Jonnu Smith and committed over $15M to Julio Jones. The Titans also lost their offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith. Before Smith took over as OC, Henry averaged 167 carries per season. Once Smith took the reins, Henry's usage jumped to 351 carries per season. It isn't crazy to deduce that this team could look to ease Henry's workload as Ryan Tannehill has proven to be more than capable as a high-end quarterback. Henry could again cause his naysayers to eat crow in 2021, but I'd prefer the upside of a pass-catching back like Aaron Jones or Austin Ekeler to Henry in PPR leagues.
Jason Wood
I’ll say Alvin Kamara because of the uncertainty of the offense. With Michael Thomas hurt and uncertainty at quarterback, the days of the Saints being an offensive juggernaut could be coming to a close. We are counting on Kamara maintaining an 80-reception pace and double-digit touchdowns. Neither may be feasible.
Phil Alexander
Round 1 ADPs are efficient, so I'm left trying to predict which running back will get seriously injured, which is both no fun and very hard.
Dalvin Cook seems like an educated guess, though I'm not avoiding him in drafts if I get the No. 2 overall pick. Since entering the league in 2017, Cook has missed games with a torn ACL, severe hamstring strain, shoulder sprain, and groin strain. The shoulder issue, in particular, has plagued Cook since his time at FSU, where he had surgery to repair a torn labrum.
A reoccurrence of the shoulder problem is at risk each time Cook gets tackled, his knee is reconstructed, and the other injuries are of the dreaded soft-tissue variety.
Again, none of this is to say Cook will bust. But if a first-round bust is most likely to be a running back and will most likely owe it to injury, Cook has red flags we should at least consider.
Chad Parsons
While I like both as talents and in dynasty, Saquon Barkley and Nick Chubb concern me more than the other running backs in Round 1. Barkley could get off to a slow start after a season-ending injury in 2020 and being slowly brought along in camp and likely the preseason. It may be a few weeks into the season before a strong workload is projected for Barkley. Plus, the Giants are still a Daniel Jones-led question mark offense.
As for Chubb, Kareem Hunt - when healthy - will limit Chubb's upside to the mid-low RB1 zone for fantasy. When drafting a running back in Round 1, elite change-your-season upside should be a reasonable range of outcomes possibility. With Chubb likely needing an injury on the depth chart to execute said upside, he differs from the other running backs commonly in Round 1.
Andy Hicks
Only nine players are consensus first-round players across the spectrum, limiting the pool. Only one is a wide receiver in Tyreek Hill, and he is joined by his Kansas City teammate in Travis Kelce.
That leaves seven running backs. Nick Chubb isn’t considered a first-round pick by the Footballguys experts, so although I love him this year and he is a first-round pick by all the drafting sites, his exclusion by the staff means I cannot consider him.
Only Christian McCaffrey and Ezekiel Elliott haven’t been mentioned as busts so far. I am not going in that direction either. My choice is Jonathan Taylor. Having him ranked 15th overall, I don’t think he will bust, but he is being drafted near his absolute ceiling. That is always risky for a first-round pick. Depth for the Colts is the main worry I have for Taylor. They will only use the running back so much but have quality options in Nyheim Hines to primarily limit Taylors use as a receiver. Marlon Mack is the big question mark. The unquestioned starter in 2019, he tore his Achilles last year, leaving a clear path for Taylor. He is back, although in what capacity remains an issue. Even Jordan Wilkins has repeatedly demonstrated himself as a capable short-term option, but Taylor will heavily depend on touchdowns for fantasy success. He won’t bust, but I highly doubt he returns that first-round value his drafters will need.
Matt Waldman
Saquon Barkley headlines my Do Not Draft List in this week’s Gut Check. Here’s part of what I shared in the article:
Barkley is a fine running back and an elite athlete. He's also returning from an injury that increases the likelihood of him incurring a compensatory injury. This isn't a fact, but it's a concern rooted in nearly 20 years of studying running backs in fine detail.
Barkley has always leaned on his rare athletic ability — stop-start movement, jump cuts, spin moves, and reversing field. This led to awe-inspiring highlights during his career. But that comes at the cost of efficiency, and decisions you can see from his Penn State tape are still decisions he has made in New York.
The result of Barkley's desire to be the hero in situations that don't call for heroics has contributed to highs and lows with his weekly output as much as the caliber of his offensive line.
There's no doubt that a healthy Barkley has the skills to deliver top-three fantasy production, even with his flaws as a decision-maker. The problem is that Barkley isn't completely healthy — not "football healthy."
This is a physical and emotional mindset, and most players have to experience enough game-tested scenarios to believe in the stability of the surgically repaired body part. Otherwise, they compensate for that body part with movement that isn't efficient or healthy for the rest of their body.
Based on numerous cases in the past, players with surgically repaired knees often suffer compensatory injuries during their first season after the procedure. Barkley's movement style is so physically dynamic that I fear he'll tax his legs and feet too greatly before he can gain full confidence in the knee in scenarios he would have never thought about in the past.
I'm trying to get safe players in the first round of drafts. Barkley's past skills and the appeal of his potential return to health make him a first-round value to most, but his style of play and the nature of his injury and typical course of recovery don't match expectations.
Ben Cummins
As our good friend Evan Silva likes to say, "You never fade the Big Dog." But sadly, Evan is cooling on Derrick Henry this year, and I’m right there with him. Now, I’m cheating a bit because I don’t see Henry as a bust per se. Rather, he’s just someone I have no interest in drafting in the first round. The Titans still play in a fantasy-friendly division, and the addition of Julio Jones makes the passing game more exciting. So I don’t see Henry burying you by any means. But I also don’t see the exciting upside case, especially with the first-round price tag.
Henry’s past two monster years were with offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, the head coach in Atlanta. And the Titans got worse this offseason, losing wide receiver Corey Davis, tight end Jonnu Smith, cornerback Adoree Jackson, and defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. Henry is all but guaranteed to regress after rushing for over 2,000 yards last season, and he doesn’t catch enough passes. Henry has never caught more than 19 passes in a season, and that limited production as a receiver won’t cut it more often than not in today’s passing league. In fact, Henry is a fringe first-round pick altogether for me. My current preference in order: Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Davante Adams, Ezekiel Elliott, Aaron Jones, Austin Ekeler, Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry.
Pat Fitzmaurice
Dave Kluge and I are destined to have a Texas death match over his Jonathan Taylor slander, but I agree with him that Derrick Henry has bust potential. The Titans changed offensive coordinators and swung a big deal for Julio Jones, so they seem destined to pass more. Henry doesn't have significant usage in the passing game to cushion the fall if there's slippage in his rushing output, and you have to wonder how long the injury luck can hold up for a running back who's shouldered such a massive workload.
Ryan Hester
As Phil pointed out, this exercise is difficult. But the player I'm shying away from at his spot is Alvin Kamara. On the one hand, I'm reluctant to do so because his piece of the New Orleans offensive pie should be huge -- especially for the portion of the season that Michael Thomas misses. But the pie itself should be small this year, especially if Taysom Hill is the starting quarterback.
Setting aside the pie analogy, Hill will account for a sizeable portion of the offense himself in the running game. Every time he runs, he takes away a carry or a reception from Kamara. And when he does so near the goal line, he takes away a chance at a touchdown. It's hard to see Kamara maintaining his otherworldly reception totals this season with Hill at the helm. And even if Jameis Winston is the starter, will the offense get enough scoring chances to allow for the touchdown production that buoyed Kamara's fantasy production in 2020?
