Prop Talk Week 14

Below are some props that you should keep your eye on as you head into Week 14.

All props are coming from DraftKings Sportsbook lines and be sure to keep checking back throughout the weekend as props are added over the course of the 24 hours prior to the game. The number of props will largely depend on the recommended plays, but typically we stay around 5. We will not be forcing the number of props just to meet a number as if it is on here, it is deemed a good play

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Week 13 Recap

Last week was an up and down week. The three wins were easy wins as Mac Jones threw just three times, Diontae Johnson continued his dominance, and Antonio Gibson had 88 yards. The losses were pretty bad too as Mike Glennon threw 44 times and still couldn’t get to 211 yards, and Najee Harris crushed the 88.5 yards last week with 109 total yards.

Diontae Johnson Over 74.5 Receiving Yards- Win
Antonio Gibson Over 70.5 Rushing Yards- Win
Mike Glennon Over 211.5 Passing Yards- Loss
Mac Jones Under 203.5 Passing Yards- Win
Najee Harris Under 88.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards- Loss

Week 14 Plays- 7 Plays this week

Taysom Hill Over 196.5 Passing Yards

Taysom Hill will get his second start this season after throwing for 264 yards against the Cowboys last week. This number just seems a little low as Hill has thrown for over 200 yards in four of his five NFL starts with the only game that he failed to do so was when Kendall Hinton started for the Denver Broncos after all of their quarterbacks had Covid and the Saints threw the ball just 16 times. The Saints are only 5.5 point favorites in this game, so it is expected that this will be a close game this week which should bode well for the passing game for Saints this week. The Jets were torched last week by Gardner Minshew and the Eagles last week as their secondary is very banged up with the loss of Marcus Maye, Adrian Colbert, and Brandin Echols.

Josh Jacobs Over 54.5 Rushing Yards

The Raiders have gone back to a more run heavy approach after Jacobs dealt with some injuries during the middle of the season. Over the last two weeks, Jacobs is averaging 17.5 carries compared to just 8.75 in the previous four games. Last week, Jacobs faced one of the best run stopping units in the NFL in the Washington Football team and still had some level of success rushing for 52 yards on 13 carries, but the Raiders threw the ball to Jacobs 9 times to try to get him out in space to mitigate the elite run-stopping unit of Washington. This week, the Raiders are facing a Chiefs defense that was absolutely torched last week by Javonte Williams. Expect the Raiders to come with a run heavy approach heavily using Jacobs.

Lamar Jackson Over 61.5 Rushing Yards

This number is a little bit surprising considering the Browns last game was against this exact Baltimore team in which they allowed 68 yards rushing against Lamar Jackson in a game in which Jackson threw four interceptions. If not for those interceptions, Jackson likely doesn’t end the drives as short as he did and should easily top 80 yards or more in that game. This is the second game in a row against Cleveland in which Jackson has had significant success as he ran for 124 yards and 2 touchdowns against Cleveland in a game in which he left a portion of due to an illness. This should be a game that the Ravens try to go run heavy knowing they are coming off of a four interception performance.

Kyler Murray Over 27.5 Rushing Yards

This number is shockingly low. The reason that it is as low as it is, is due to the fact that Murray has not been rushing nearly as much this year as he did last season, as he averaged just 9.5 yards rushing per game in his four games prior to going out with an injury. However, this does not tell the full story. Murray was playing through an ankle injury that the team ultimately decided to keep him out and let him fully recover which led to Colt McCoy leading this team for over a month. Murray, in his first game back, looked like the player that we are used to seeing as he ran for 59 yards and more important to signify his health, he ran for two touchdowns. The reason the touchdowns are important, is that there is no way that you are allowing a quarterback to run inside the 10-yard line if he is still dealing with the effects of an ankle injury. It is safe to assume Murray is as close to 100% healthy as he will be all season, which should allow for plenty of rushing opportunities in this game.

Patrick Mahomes II Over 289.5 Passing Yards

Patrick Mahomes II and the Chiefs passing offense has struggled mightily this season by their standards as they are averaging “only” 282 passing yards. This is an offense that has shown that they can still be explosive and still throw for significant numbers when they are clicking. The good news here, is that they should have a ton of confidence heading into this game this week as they have absolutely dominated the Raiders over the last several seasons. The Chiefs have thrown for 340 yards or more in three consecutive games, and four of their last five games against this Raiders defense. This is simply a skill mismatch as the Raiders linebacking group is abysmal in pass coverage as is Johnathan Abrams which should bode well for Travis Kelce this week.

Jared Goff Over 206.5 Passing Yards

The Lions looked very good last week against Minnesota as Jared Goff threw the ball 41 times for 296 passing yards. This week, the Lions are without both of their top running backs as both Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift are out which should force the Lions to go to a pass heavy approach. Denver’s pass defense is very good, as they completely shut down Patrick Mahomes II and the Chiefs, but they have allowed over 206 yards in six of their last nine games. With the emergence of Amon-Ra St. Brown last week, look for the Lions to continue to try to get the ball to the rookie in a game that they should be losing for most of the game and top 206 yards.

Rob Gronkowski Over 52.5 Receiving Yards-

The emergence of Rob Gronkowski over the last several weeks has been like a time machine in Tampa Bay. Gronkowski since returning from injury, has 8 or more targets in all three of his contests and now has 8 or more targets in five of the six games that Gronkowski played a majority of. If there is one worry here, it is that Gronkowski will have to deal with Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde at safety, and while the Bills have been a good unit, it’s yet to be seen how they will perform without TreDavious White which should put additional pressure on the safeties to provide help to the wide receivers than they are accustomed to. If Gronkowski sees eight targets once again this week, he should easily top 52.5 yards.