10 Overrated Quarterbacks

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The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These players will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. To point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position.

Here are the players who received the most votes:

• Lamar Jackson
• Josh Allen

And here are all of the players mentioned and the reasons why.

Player Receiving 4 Votes

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore

Jason Wood: Jackson has finished 10th and 15th in the last two seasons despite being treated as an elite option among many fantasy analysts. It’s time to consider the combination of wear and tear from his playing style and defensive adjustments having a long-term impact on Jackson’s ceiling. Losing his favorite receiver to the Cardinals and the lack of improvement as a passer under Greg Roman put the finishing touches on why drafting Jackson that high is a risky proposition.

Chad Parsons: After a flourishing breakout season in 2019, Jackson has swooned to QB11 and QB12 adjusted points-per-game finishes the past two years. While one of the elite rushing options at the position, Jackson loses his WR1 from 2021 in Marquise Brown and the assumption is Rashod Bateman, last year's first-round selection, will seamlessly bridge the gap among the wide receiver corps. Jackson has faded in touchdown rate and zoomed up in interception rate for two years running and the weapons are worse than a year ago. All of this assumes Jackson largely stays healthy with his brash running back-like style on the ground.

Ryan Hester: His rushing talent is electric, but in this tier of quarterbacks, a player shouldn't have a significant flaw in his game. And Jackson's flaw is his passing game. Only a portion of that can be attributed to Jackson, and the rest can be chalked up to a lack of offensive weaponry around him. Rashod Bateman is a darling of draft analysts everywhere, but can he be the alpha WR1 in his second year? The running backs are also question marks. One year after ACL injuries to what seemed like the entire running back corps, those players (J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards) are still working their way back to health. This offense has the potential to underwhelm in 2022.

Will Grant: I have a feeling that the people who are drafting Lamar Jackson so high this year are people who missed out on drafting him in previous seasons. His rushing stats give him decent upside during any game, and he's really fun to watch, but that doesn't always translate into fantasy production. Jackson played in just 12 games last season, and he averaged just over one touchdown pass and one interception per game. Not exactly a 'gotta have it' performance. He also finished the year with just two rushing touchdowns and a career-low 767 rushing yards. He's still a solid pick as your top fantasy quarterback, but temper your expectations a bit. He has potential to finish in the top five, but will more likely be top ten for fantasy quarterbacks.

Player Receiving 3 Votes

Josh Allen, Buffalo

Jason Wood: I have Allen rated quite high, but this challenges the idea of his status as the near-consensus No. 1 quarterback. Few quarterbacks in league history have finished QB1 for three consecutive seasons. Brian Daboll and Allen were a match made in heaven; to think Daboll’s departure is meaningless is unwise. Even if you don’t think Daboll is irreplaceable, we have to consider that Allen is likely to ratchet back his rushing attempts. He’s very likely a QB1, but taking him first at the position at an early-round ADP also comes with a replacement cost of losing out on an elite receiver or running back available at the same draft spot.

Gary Davenport: Allen is a great young quarterback and a high-end fantasy option, no doubt. But there's just no value to be had in being the first team to draft a quarterback (at ADP). The so-called "advantage" you gain under center isn't worth the hole on your roster at running back or wide receiver. Add in Brian Daboll's departure as offensive coordinator and the fact that the first quarterback drafted and the highest-scoring quarterback haven't been the same dude in well over a decade, and you're much better off letting someone else break the seal at the position.

Ben Cummins: Josh Allen is my QB1 and I would start considering him later on in the third round. However, an ADP of 26th overall is too high when considering the plethora of other dual-threat quarterbacks available multiple rounds later such as Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Russell Wilson, Trey Lance, etc. The opportunity cost is simply too high if passing on star running backs and wide receivers to draft Allen.

Players Receiving 2 Votes

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati

Gary Davenport: Is Burrow an excellent young NFL quarterback? Sure. But he's being drafted much closer to his fantasy ceiling than his floor this year. For all the things Burrow did well last season, he still finished with fewer fantasy points than four quarterbacks being drafted behind him. Over 45 percent of Burrow's fantasy points for the year were scored in just three games, and he had more weekly finishes outside the top-20 than inside the top-five. He also doesn't add much to the stat sheet on the ground. You can get similar (or better) production at the position multiple rounds later.

Ryan Weisse: First and foremost, I love Burrow and the Bengals offense this year, but the issue is his ADP. At QB7, he is going ahead of Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, and Tom Brady. Burrow was the QB8 last year, behind all of them. Yes, Burrow had some monster games towards the end of the season last year. But, when you look at the season in its totality, he was hit-or-miss, with more games below 20 fantasy points than games where he scored 30 or more. Again, this is more about draft cost. I like nine quarterbacks more than or roughly the same as Burrow, but three of them will cost less in a fantasy draft.

Kyler Murray, Arizona

Chad Parsons: Murray has been an average-at-best NFL passer to-date in his career. Putting an early-mid QB1 price point on Murray mandates elite rushing numbers to offer any upside compared to the downside scenarios. Add DeAndre Hopkins out with a suspension and Christian Kirk is gone and Murray is dealing with a depleted deck through the air compared to a year ago.

Jeff Haseley: Kyler Murray injured his ankle in Week 8 last season and missed three games. He returned and lost five of seven games by an average of 12.4 points. He scored more than one touchdown twice in those seven games. He will begin the 2022 season without DeAndre Hopkins and his top 30 WR, Christian Kirk, is with Jacksonville. Has the league figured out Murray? Can we expect him to improve the mental side of his game? Arizona could be a surprise team from a negative stance this year. There are uncertainties, and there are too many yellow flags to consider him as one of the top 6-7 quarterbacks in a draft this season.

Matt Ryan, Indianapolis

Anthony Amico: A bit of low-hanging fruit here since he is QB19 on our ADP list, but Ryan is probably not even draftable in single-quarterback formats right now. He has shown a decline in skills -- posting the lowest yards per attempt in 2021 since 2013 -- and offers no rushing upside. Now he goes to a Colts team that loves to pound the rock, and lacks meaningful weapons in the offense behind Michael Pittman. Ryan seems like a poor bet for both opportunity and efficiency in 2022.

Ben Cummins: Ryan is the only quarterback on our ADP list I am not intrigued with at all from a single-quarterback redraft standpoint and I'm hardly interested in two-quarterback and best ball formats as well. Ryan will provide more stability at quarterback for a solid Colts team but that won’t equate to fantasy production that will allow him to separate from numerous quarterbacks not even on the ADP list. I have Mac Jones ranked ahead of Ryan and see very little difference between him and other quarterbacks such as Ryan Tannehill and Jared Goff.

Players Receiving 1 Vote

Derek Carr, Las Vegas

Ryan Hester: At this point in drafts, it's hard to label any quarterback overvalued. The cost is relatively cheap. And if they underachieve, they can be dropped without much heartburn over their draft cost. At this point in drafts, fantasy managers should be thinking about only upside. And there are other players around Carr who project more upside. His floor is safe, but drafting the overall QB10 at his price isn't going to win a league.

Trey Lance, San Francisco

Andy Hicks: I would be more comfortable with Trey Lance if the 49ers traded Jimmy Garoppolo. There is no doubt he has the upside to be an elite fantasy quarterback, but for a team with Superbowl ambitions, an inexperienced quarterback with barely 100 real game passes in the last two years is on a short leash while Garoppolo is still a 49er. Is his arm able to take a full workload? Is he too reckless with his running? Relying on Lance to carry our fantasy team requires us to have another dependable option.

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville

Christian Williams: Trevor Lawrence's play in 2021 was oft-concerning, and his 15.2 FPTS/G ranked worst among quarterbacks with at least 14 games started. The heightened expectations placed on a player with fundamental flaws and the awful situation with Urban Meyer as head coach sealed that outcome before the season. 2022 offers more hope. The offense added competent pass catchers in Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram. Lawrence is again getting his running mate from college (Travis Etienne) in the backfield. Doug Pederson is taking over for Meyer. And yet, Trevor Lawrence would need to make massive leaps forward to justify his ADP of QB19. Year 3 Trevor Lawrence at QB19 sounds excellent, but there are better options than Year 2 Trevor Lawrence for fantasy.

Dak Prescott, Dallas

Sam Wagman: Prescott can definitely match his ADP in 2022, but I do think there’s a better chance he doesn’t. He lost his most tenured wide receiver in Amari Cooper, late season standout Cedrick Wilson left in free agency, and Ezekiel Elliott is presumably back to full health from his PCL injury last season. Whether Prescott’s rushing output will increase enough to make up for a rookie Jalen Tolbert starting on the outside across from Ceedee Lamb and these issues remains to be seen. He should not be going ahead of mainstays like Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford though.

Russell Wilson, Denver

Andy Hicks: After 10 years in Seattle, the last with a seeming desire to move on, Russell Wilson got his wish by being traded to Denver. His time with the Seahawks is hall-of-fame worthy, but that means nothing for his Broncos career. One of his fantasy strengths was in noticeable decline last year with his lowest ever rushing numbers. At his age, you would not expect much from this crucial area for fantasy success. That leaves him as almost a pure passer, almost anachronistic in today's NFL. With Denver likely to lean on Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon III, Wilson will have time to learn a new offense and develop rapport with a good group of receivers. Wilson could push QB1 numbers, but I would be careful expecting this automatically.