Links to similar discussions on other positions:
The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These players will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. To point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position.
Here are the players who received the most votes:
And here are all of the players mentioned and the reasons why.
Player Receiving 4 Votes
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore
Jason Wood: Jackson has finished 10th and 15th in the last two seasons despite being treated as an elite option among many fantasy analysts. It’s time to consider the combination of wear and tear from his playing style and defensive adjustments having a long-term impact on Jackson’s ceiling. Losing his favorite receiver to the Cardinals and the lack of improvement as a passer under Greg Roman put the finishing touches on why drafting Jackson that high is a risky proposition.
Chad Parsons: After a flourishing breakout season in 2019, Jackson has swooned to QB11 and QB12 adjusted points-per-game finishes the past two years. While one of the elite rushing options at the position, Jackson loses his WR1 from 2021 in Marquise Brown and the assumption is Rashod Bateman, last year's first-round selection, will seamlessly bridge the gap among the wide receiver corps. Jackson has faded in touchdown rate and zoomed up in interception rate for two years running and the weapons are worse than a year ago. All of this assumes Jackson largely stays healthy with his brash running back-like style on the ground.
Ryan Hester: His rushing talent is electric, but in this tier of quarterbacks, a player shouldn't have a significant flaw in his game. And Jackson's flaw is his passing game. Only a portion of that can be attributed to Jackson, and the rest can be chalked up to a lack of offensive weaponry around him. Rashod Bateman is a darling of draft analysts everywhere, but can he be the alpha WR1 in his second year? The running backs are also question marks. One year after ACL injuries to what seemed like the entire running back corps, those players (J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards) are still working their way back to health. This offense has the potential to underwhelm in 2022.
Will Grant: I have a feeling that the people who are drafting Lamar Jackson so high this year are people who missed out on drafting him in previous seasons. His rushing stats give him decent upside during any game, and he's really fun to watch, but that doesn't always translate into fantasy production. Jackson played in just 12 games last season, and he averaged just over one touchdown pass and one interception per game. Not exactly a 'gotta have it' performance. He also finished the year with just two rushing touchdowns and a career-low 767 rushing yards. He's still a solid pick as your top fantasy quarterback, but temper your expectations a bit. He has potential to finish in the top five, but will more likely be top ten for fantasy quarterbacks.
Player Receiving 3 Votes
Josh Allen, Buffalo
Jason Wood: I have Allen rated quite high, but this challenges the idea of his status as the near-consensus No. 1 quarterback. Few quarterbacks in league history have finished QB1 for three consecutive seasons. Brian Daboll and Allen were a match made in heaven; to think Daboll’s departure is meaningless is unwise. Even if you don’t think Daboll is irreplaceable, we have to consider that Allen is likely to ratchet back his rushing attempts. He’s very likely a QB1, but taking him first at the position at an early-round ADP also comes with a replacement cost of losing out on an elite receiver or running back available at the same draft spot.
Gary Davenport: Allen is a great young quarterback and a high-end fantasy option, no doubt. But there's just no value to be had in being the first team to draft a quarterback (at ADP). The so-called "advantage" you gain under center isn't worth the hole on your roster at running back or wide receiver. Add in Brian Daboll's departure as offensive coordinator and the fact that the first quarterback drafted and the highest-scoring quarterback haven't been the same dude in well over a decade, and you're much better off letting someone else break the seal at the position.
Ben Cummins: Josh Allen is my QB1 and I would start considering him later on in the third round. However, an ADP of 26th overall is too high when considering the plethora of other dual-threat quarterbacks available multiple rounds later such as Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Russell Wilson, Trey Lance, etc. The opportunity cost is simply too high if passing on star running backs and wide receivers to draft Allen.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
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