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The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These players will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. To point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position.
Here is the player who received the most votes:
- Mike Gesicki, with three votes
- And four getting two; check them out below
And here are all of the players mentioned and the reasons why.
Player Receiving 3 Votes
Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins
Ben Cummins: I prefer Irv Smith, Cole Kmet, and Hunter Henry to Mike Gesicki, and all three are being drafted after Gesicki on average. Gesicki is a solid player yet is stuck in an offense that ranked only 23rd in pass DVOA last season. Tyreek Hill, Cedrick Wilson, Chase Edmonds, Sony Michel, and Raheem Mostert have all been added to the Dolphins this offseason, and Jaylen Waddle is already entrenched as a target hog. Tua Tagovailoa is an accurate quarterback but not aggressive enough to support all of these weapons.
Sam Wagman: Gesicki is complicated to figure out because he fits the profile of a player who excels as a receiving tight end. But the offense he’s in has grown a little large for him to continue making the impact in past seasons. The additions of Tyreek Hill and Cedrick Wilson have made Gesicki’s volume shrink a little bit. Gesicki may have 85 or more targets in the last three seasons, but Tua Tagovailoa has only averaged 340 passing attempts in his two seasons. Hill and Jaylen Waddle will take a bunch of that volume away, not leaving enough for Gesicki to achieve his ADP.
Clayton Gray: In 2018, Gesicki was TE12 in PPR scoring. In 2018, he moved up to TE8 and appeared to be an ascendant talent. Then Miami started upgrading their wide receivers, and Gesicki was TE9 in 2021. With Tyreek Hill in town, Gesicki has almost no upside. And upside is what you want when you take the 12th tight end off the board.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Mark Andrews, Baltimore
Gary Davenport: This isn't a knock on Andrews the player. But unless the Ravens are decimated by injuries again, he isn't backing up last year's numbers. The target volume just isn't going to be there. Baltimore made it abundantly clear in the offseason that this offense will be more like the Ravens team that attempted the fewest passes in the league in 2020 than the team that threw the ball the ninth-most times in 2021. Prior to last year's whopping 153 targets, Andrews had never been targeted even 100 times in a season. Using last year's numbers to set expectations for Andrews in 2022 is begging to be disappointed—a more accurate barometer is his 58/701/7 line and TE4 finish in PPR points in 2020. That's not bad, but it's not enough to justify a pick in the middle of Round 2.
Sam Wagman: There’s a thin checklist of things that make you a year-to-year, top-tier fantasy tight end these days: being one of the two main targets on your team, not having to block a ton, and yards-after-catch (YAC) ability. Andrews has all three of those for sure, but the Ravens are coming off a season where they passed a TON, following the injuries to Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins in training camp last July and multiple defensive injuries. These understandably forced the Ravens to be significantly more pass-heavy and participate in shootout games. However, both running backs will be back this season, and Marquise Brown has been traded. It’s a sign that the team will be back to their run-heavy ways, and I just don’t see Andrews commanding 60 more targets over his career high again like he did last year.
Zach Ertz, Arizona
Andy Hicks: When you draft a tight end expected to be your starter, you are looking for possible top-six production. Upside. With Zach Ertz, his current ranking is his ceiling. The Cardinals will throw and run the ball across the depth chart. Maxx Williams returns after looking like a breakout season was on the cards. Arizona drafted Trey McBride in round two as a receiving specialist. Maybe Ertz has a good game or two. He is most likely to disappoint your expectations.
Anthony Amico: If there is one thing Kliff Kingsbury has shown a penchant for in Arizona, it is spreading the ball out. Last season, eight different Cardinals had 30 or more targets, with no single player earning more than Christian Kirk's 103. Kirk is gone and DeAndre Hopkins must serve a suspension, but Arizona traded for Marquise Brown and drafted Trey McBride. McBride is particularly a threat to Ertz given that they play the same position, and he just had an 1100-yard season for Colorado State. Ertz will turn 32 during the season and may see a reduced role to keep him fresh for the full season.
Cole Kmet, Chicago
Will Grant: A lot of folks think Kmet is a good value pick at tight end, but I am not one of them. He took a big step forward from his rookie season to average 35 yards per game and had zero touchdowns last year. Not a lot to get excited about. He's playing on a team that is paper thin with pass catchers - which speaks more to how bad Justin Fields could be this year than how good Kmet will be. He may even draw more defensive scrutiny than he has in the past because there's no one else to catch the ball. If he reaches the end zone a couple of times, he'll move up the draft board from undrafted fantasy tight end to backup fantasy tight end. At best, he seems more like a waiver wire pickup/bye-week starter.
Ryan Weisse: Calling the TE14 overvalued is a bit of a stretch, but it's not off base. While the ADP hasn't caught up to the hype, the hype is out of control. Yes, Kmet had 93 targets last year, but there is no guarantee that number will improve in 2022. It is just as likely to drop. The Bears' wide receivers were bad last year too, and the loss of Allen Robinson does not mean that his five targets per game will flow to Kmet. This is especially true when you consider the new coaching staff hasn't targeted the entire tight end position more than 100 times in a season over the last two years in Green Bay. Kmet scored zero touchdowns and finished as the TE20 with 93 targets. It would have taken seven touchdowns to make him a top-10 tight end. Unless he scores a Robert Tonyan Jr-esque ten touchdowns, he's just another guy
Dawson Knox, Bills
Chad Parsons: Among tight ends with at least 30 targets, Dawson Knox tops the tight end list from 2022 in points-per-target at a balmy 2.28. Historically, that efficiency level erodes by 26% on average the following season. Also, Knox had previously been slightly below the NFL average in efficiency in his career. Add O.J. Howard to the depth chart, James Cook as a pass-catching back, Jamison Crowder (or Isaiah McKenzie) in the slot, and Knox will need another high-efficiency season considering his 71 targets from a year ago are unlikely to surge upward.
Ryan Weisse: The Knox to Robert Tonyan Jr comparison makes itself. Too many touchdowns with not enough targets. Now, the team added O.J. Howard this offseason. Knox played 76% of the snaps in 2021 with Tommy Sweeney as a backup. Howard is likely to cut in that playing time in 2022. The team also brought in some wide receiver talent and a 2nd-Round running back. These new pieces will further cut into Knox's touchdown opportunities. He missed the Top 10 last year with nine touchdowns. Now, we're drafting him in the Top 10 when regression will hit.
Darren Waller, Las Vegas
Christian Williams: The Las Vegas Raiders overhauled their offensive roster this offseason, adding Davante Adams and a flurry of wide receivers competing for the WR3 job behind him and Hunter Renfrow. The offense should be outstanding, but Darren Waller's role in it looks uncertain. He primarily won from the X position in the past, consistently lining up wide and creating mismatches. And in certain formations, it's within reason to believe he'll still get snaps out there. But with Davante Adams in town, Waller's optimal usage will likely be as an in-line tight end. While he can create matchup nightmares from there, the 17-target performances operating as a wideout may be few and far between. Waller has touchdown upside - arguably more now that the offense should be even further along - but his ADP of TE4 makes it worth considering alternative options.
Chad Parsons: Waller is priced within the elite of the tight end position as if nothing changed for Waller in the past 12 months. Hunter Renfrow broke out last season, plus the elephant in the room is Davante Adams bolstering a thin Raiders' wide receiver corps. As a true alpha, Adams calls into question the ceiling of Renfrow and especially Waller to log enough targets to be an upper-end starter at their positions. Of the big names at tight end, Waller carries the most risk of not finishing in the top six in 2022.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
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