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The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position.
Here are the players who received the most votes:
And here are all of the players mentioned and the reasons why.
Players Receiving 7 Votes
Antonio Gibson, Washington
Ben Cummins: I’m a big fan of Antonio Gibson’s talent, but he will have to overcome a lot of hurdles to pay off his current ADP. Washington’s offense ranked 21st in overall DVOA last season and doesn’t project to improve much in 2022 despite the addition of Carson Wentz. J.D. McKissic returns from injury to his role as the pass-catching back, and Washington also drafted Brian Robinson Jr in the third round. After the Robinson selection, head coach Ron Rivera likened the potential Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson Jr combination to the Jonathan Stewart and D'Angelo Williams pairing he used during his Carolina days. Gibson plays on a bad offense, has rushing competition from Robinson, and receiving competition from McKissic. No thanks.
Anthony Amico: The story with Gibson is somewhat similar to that of Jacobs but with a proof of concept already complete. We've seen J.D. McKissic take the bulk of receiving work in Washington -- even though Gibson himself is a converted wide receiver. The Commanders drafted Brian Robinson Jr on Day 2 of the draft, a bigger back who excelled in pass protection. This likely puts Gibson two injuries away from a full workload, and Robinson is capable of taking away money touches in the redzone as well.
Ryan Hester: Gibson is a unique case in fantasy football. In college, he played wide receiver as much as (if not more than) running back. But now in the NFL, he is removed from passing down work in favor of J.D. McKissic, one the league's better pass-catching backs. Along with McKissic, Gibson will have to contend with Brian Robinson Jr, a rookie from Alabama. Crimson Tide skill players have been pretty good coming into the NFL recently, and Robinson's early start to camp has been generating buzz. Gibson is more likely to lose his job than return a significant profit on his draft price.
Sigmund Bloom: Brian Robinson Jr had an excellent preseason debut, while Antonio Gibson fumbled *again*, so this is trending in the wrong direction for Gibson's 2022 redraft value. Gibson was even in the game after Robinson was out. J.D. McKissic will get passing down work, so Gibson's floor and ceiling will be lower than last year, the only question is how much lower.
Jonathan Morris: Gibson was already someone I was worried about getting enough volume to be drafted at his current ADP. He yields passing work to J.D. Mckissic, and there was talk of rookie Brian Robinson Jr taking on the short yardage work. Gibson fumbled in the preseason opener, and ball security has been an issue as he coughed up the football four times last year. His value is trending in the wrong direction.
Kevin Coleman: Antonio Gibson’s value took a hit this offseason. The Commanders made it a priority of theirs to bring back J.D. McKissic this offseason and added Alabama running back Brian Robinson Jr Jr. in the 3rd round of the NFL draft. Before McKissic was injured with a concussion in Week 12, which forced him to miss the remainder of the season, Gibson was only getting targeted 2.6 times per game. That number of targets limited his ceiling, and he was barely a low-end RB2. Gibson has also been struggling with fumbles in training camp, which have drawn the ire of the Commanders’ coaching staff. With McKissic back taking over passing down duties and Brian Robinson Jr possibly taking over red zone opportunities, Gibson is being overvalued in fantasy drafts.
Jeff Bell: Gibson finished fourth in rushing attempts. He finally received the workhorse role fantasy players have craved. He rewarded those believers with an RB18 PPG season. The team added Brian Robinson Jr Jr. on day two of the draft while retaining J.D. McKissic. Gibson’s problems with fumbles have been a complaint of Ron Rivera, and he has already shown it is not gone in the preseason. If Robinson claims goal line work, there is an upward battle for returning a value in his ADP.
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas
Jason Wood: Jacobs was the only projected Raiders offensive starter to play in the Hall of Fame game, which should be a blaring red flag for how much new head coach Josh McDaniels values Jacobs as a centerpiece. While Jacobs is capable of a bell-cow role, McDaniels has a long history of maddening running back usage as the Patriots OC. There's too much risk to draft him as an ever-week starter.
Jeff Haseley: Josh McDaniels' history of using multiple running backs in his offense is enough to be concerned about Josh Jacobs not having a full-time role as the lead back for the Raiders. Zamir White is looking like a capable back and could eat into Jacobs' carries. It's possible that Las Vegas will lean on Jacobs, knowing he won't be back next year, but that goes against McDaniels' past style of play.
Ben Cummins: The Raiders’ offense should be fun this season with the additions of Davante Adams and new head coach, Josh McDaniels. That makes me want to be high on Josh Jacobs, but unfortunately, all reports point to a backfield by committee. The Raiders declined to exercise Jacobs’ fifth-year option this offseason, drafted Zamir White in the fourth round, signed Ameer Abdullah and Brandon Bolden, and Kenyan Drake returns from injury. I'm out.
Anthony Amico: The new regime for the Raiders is not particularly reassuring of Jacobs' role with the team. They did not pick up his fifth-year option and took Zamir White in the fourth round of the NFL Draft. Additionally, Brandon Bolden -- a member of Josh McDaniels' Patriot teams -- is with the club. He and Ameer Abdullah -- who played over Kenyan Drake in the first preseason game -- could take away tons of receiving work, while White is capable of obtaining shots around the goal line. Jacobs could easily wind up as a player who does a lot of work between the 20s with no meaningful fantasy production.
Ryan Hester: Even before he played double-digit snaps in the most meaningless of all meaningless preseason games, Jacobs was a solid fade. Vegas used other backs last year and pigeonholed Jacobs as a two-down grinder. This year, his new head coach -- Josh McDaniels -- is an offensive mind who made his career in schemes that utilized multiple backs as specialists for each situation. Jacobs is not the alpha; he's one of many in the Vegas backfield. And even if he played all three downs, the target competition is strong (Davante Adams, Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow). Drafting Jacobs around this price is drafting him at his ceiling -- perhaps even above it. Leave him there for the next guy to take him.
Sigmund Bloom: The Raiders are going to adopt a frustrating Patriots-style committee at running back under Josh McDaniels, which means that Jacobs will be at best Damien Harris in this offense. The team likes fourth-round pick Zamir White and passing down back Ameer Abdullah, and Kenyan Drake is still on the roster, so Jacobs is going to have trouble being consistent enough to merit an every-week RB2 start.
Jonathan Morris: As soon as Josh McDaniels came into the picture as the new head coach of the Raiders, my valuation of Jacobs immediately went down. McDaniels is someone who deploys multiple backs throughout the course of the game. The Raiders have a lot of diverse depth with several different pass catchers, speed backs, and bruisers at the running back position for Jacobs to be drafted at his current ADP.
Player Receiving 5 Votes
Javonte Williams, Denver
Jason Wood: Williams has the talent to be a top-10 fantasy back for years. But the Broncos re-signed Melvin Gordon III, which cannot be interpreted as anything short of a re-commitment to a 50/50 committee. Given Russell Wilson's historical propensity to score rushing touchdowns in goal-line situations, it's hard to get overly excited about Williams, particularly in PPR formats.
Gary Davenport: Drafting an RB1 based on wishful thinking isn't an ideal strategy, yet Williams keeps getting picked inside the top-12 at his position. Is he more talented than Melvin Gordon III at this point in their respective careers? Yep. But Gordon averaged more yards per carry last year than Williams. Had more rushing touchdowns last year than Williams. Got the exact same number of carries as Williams. And was brought back by a new staff that keeps saying he will be a significant part of the offense. Gordon isn't going away just because fantasy managers want him to.
Chad Parsons: The price has vaulted up on Javonte Williams after a quality rookie season. However, Melvin Gordon III returning is the lynchpin for tepid upside expectations outside of a Gordon injury. Even if the split is swapped with Williams as the slight 1A to Gordon's now 1B, achieving a top-12 result will hinge on Gordon missing a chunk of the season. There are plenty of clarified RB1 types later in the draft to avoid taking the variable shot on Williams.
Jordan McNamara: Javonte Williams got a major bump in value in the offseason when Melvin Gordon III was a free agent. It looked like Williams would consolidate the lead role in the offseason. When Melvin Gordon III re-signed, many dismissed him as purely a backup player. That has shown to be largely untrue so far in camp as Williams and Gordon have been splitting first-team reps nearly 50-50 until Gordon has missed time with a foot injury. If Gordon's injury is extended, Williams could be appropriately priced, but until there is more information, he is an avoid at cost.
Jonathan Morris: I can't endorse a high pick on Javonte Williams when he will yield a lot of work to Melvin Gordon III. Williams is extremely talented, but as of now, it looks like this will be a split backfield. Williams can still be a great producer, but at his ADP, I won't be drafting him when he isn't getting the bulk of the touches. Not to mention I expect this offense to throw the ball a lot more than last year due to the addition of Russell Wilson and new Head Coach Nathaniel Hackett.
Player Receiving 4 Votes
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