Know Your Opposition
If you want to finish at the top of the standings in a mid-to-large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but it lacks the context of how the most popular players fit together under the salary cap.
To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, so you can spend yours differently, let’s think about how the public is most likely to attack roster construction at each position.
Slate Overview- Short Slate- Concentrated Roster %
This is an interesting slate. On a ten game slate, there currently are not any players who are projected to top 20% roster percentage, which ultimately means we have a significant amount of players who appear to be squeezed between the 10-20%. While there are a number of great plays this week, what we really don't have is a lot of high-upside players that are sub-10% rostered. This is likely a week, where you may have to take a chance on one player, or go with a more balanced lineup intentionally avoiding some of the elite high-rostered players and take a middling approach of a bunch of guys who are closer to the 10% rostered than they are to 20%. It ultimately should be a great slate however, as there are plenty of stacking opportunities along with some interesting pairings of stacks such as quarterback, wide receiver, and opposing running back.
Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Derrick Henry
Justin Herbert and the Chargers are starting to click. Over the last two games, Herbert has thrown for 335 and 367 yards. This week, the Chargers take on the Titans who are a funnel defense that boast one of the best run defenses in the NFL, but their pass defense leaves a lot to be desired. The Titans are allowing 300-yards passing per game, and over the last two weeks have allowed 330 yards and 368 yards while allowing 3 passing touchdowns per game. Keenan Allen has 14 targets in each of his last two games, and while he has not had the blowup game that could win GPP’s as he has not topped 100-yards this season, to get a wide receiver at $6,500 who is in one of the best matchups of the season at sub 15% rostered is something you need to look strongly at.
On the other side of the ball, Derrick Henry is an interesting play as typically pairing the opposing running back with a quarterback and wide receiver is sub-optimal, we saw how this story can go just two weeks ago when Josh Jacobs ran for 144 yards and a touchdown while Herbert threw for 335. Derrick Henry is going to likely be the highest rostered running back on this slate, and stacking him with the Chargers likely will create more of a uniqueness that could help on this slate. The Chargers have allowed five running backs to top 25 fantasy points this season, and while Henry has just one 100-yard game over his last six games, he is a player that has as much upside on this slate as any running back. If this is a close game, it will be because the Chargers have success throwing and the Titans have success running the ball.
Under the Radar Stacks
Justin Fields, Cole Kmet, A.J. Brown
The Bears are in an interesting spot this week as they are 9-point underdogs, which is driving the roster percentage of Fields down to sub-5%. However, Fields has really not depended on game script as he has rushed for 60 yards or more in the last 7 games, and has ran for a touchdown in each of his last 6 games. A 9 point underdog is not guaranteed to get blown out, and while most will just completely dismiss it, for the Bears to have any chance at keeping this game close, it will have to be through the arm and legs of Justin Fields. Kmet is the Bears leading receiver now that Darnell Mooney has been placed on Injured Reserve. The Eagles have not really been challenged against elite tight ends, but did look shaky two weeks ago allowing 68 yards to Chigoziem Okonkwo.
A.J. Brown has been up and down this season, but when he is good, he is excellent, as he has topped 27 DraftKings points in three games this season. In a game that the Eagles are supposed to win comfortably, we could see Jalen Hurts use his arm to win this game much like he did against the Titans two weeks ago where he threw for 380 yards and 3 touchdowns with AJ Brown having 119 yards and 2 touchdowns. Hurts will be popular this week, but being able to pivot to the other side with the Bears could pay off if this is a back and forth contest.
Patrick Mahomes II, Travis Kelce, Chris Moore
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