Dynasty Rankings Movement, Week 6

Photo: Geoff Burke, USA Today Sports

Week 5 is complete, and dynasty movement continues. Injuries have created new opportunities or raised long-term questions about players. The star-studded 2021 quarterback class continues its journey to establish a foothold in the league. Elsewhere young players are solidifying their opportunity for playing time and fantasy production. Weekly the Footballguys staff will share their thoughts on the dynasty ranking movement and answer a critical question you may face.

Quarterbacks

Jason Wood

Matthew Stafford - LA Rams

Stafford drops five spots after an abysmal start to the season. While offseason shoulder worries depressed his value, most of us wrote those off because he was a full participant in camp. And, as far as we know, his shoulder is fine, but you wouldn't know it from the Rams' offensive ineptitude. It looks like Allen Robinson was a busted signing, the Rams have no draft capital to infuse youthful talent, and the offensive line is in shambles. Stafford has always been a turnover machine when the pocket isn't clean, and at his age, we have to ask how long he'll be willing to take a pounding.

Geno Smith - Seattle

If I told you Geno Smith would not only look comfortable executing the Seahawks' offense but would look better than Russell Wilson through five weeks, you would've laughed me off the stage. But that's what transpired, and we must ask why regression is a given. Smith is taking advantage of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett -- who are elite by any definition. And the offensive line is giving Smith time to survey the field and take deep shots. Smith still isn't a top-20 dynasty quarterback and probably never will be, but given how poorly many young prospects look, Smith looks appealing as a No. 2 or No. 3 in most dynasty leagues.

Will Grant

Josh Allen - Buffalo

I'm not a big fan of taking quarterbacks early in redraft leagues or dynasty leagues, but Josh Allen is making me reconsider that. To be blunt - he's winning fantasy leagues this season. Through five weeks, he's the top fantasy quarterback, averaging almost four points per game more than the #2 player - Lamar Jackson. When you have a player who can spot you eight to ten points per game every week against your opponent - that's a guy you can build a franchise around.

Kenny Pickett - Pittsburgh

Okay, so his first game as a starter was against the Bills - and he threw four interceptions against zero touchdowns. But despite the constant pressure, Pickett still hung 327 yards on one of the top passing defenses in the league. Mitch Trubisky would never have been able to do that. Pickett will take his lumps, but he's shown some spark and isn't afraid to throw the ball a lot. Come this time next year, with a few key additions around him, Pickett could be a solid fantasy quarterback for many seasons to come.

Andy Hicks

Russell Wilson - Denver

It was easy to criticize Pete Carroll for his deteriorating relationship with Russell Wilson. In hindsight, Seattle seems to be doing just fine with an egoless quarterback. Wilson, through circumstances, felt he had to do everything to get wins. In Denver, it’s just not working with the inexperienced coaching staff. Wilson looks terrible. Four passing touchdowns in five weeks is not the result even the biggest preseason detractors, myself included, could foresee.

Bailey Zappe - New England

History is unlikely to repeat in New England with a late-round quarterback doing great things. Still, Bailey Zappe was worth the fourth-round draft pick with a contained and almost flawless effort against the Lions. At the very least, it puts pressure on Mac Jones to improve. Zappe is worth a roster spot, especially if the Patriots struggle upon his return.

Dan Hindery

Geno Smith - Seattle

The rise of Smith and the potency of the Seahawks offense is one of the more surprising stories of the 2022 NFL season. Smith has shown enough to think he could be fantasy relevant the rest of this year and perhaps even over the next few years. He moves up 11 spots to my QB24.

Russell Wilson - Denver

Even for those a bit skeptical of Wilson, the speed at which things have fallen apart for him in Denver has been stunning. He falls seven spots of QB17 and would have fallen further if so many of the other thirty-something quarterbacks were not also underperforming.

Running Backs

Will Grant

Najee Harris - Pittsburgh

Well, that certainly didn't take long. Coming into this season, Najee Harris was one of the top fantasy running backs to target in both redraft and dynasty leagues. After five games, Harris is averaging just over 3 yards per carry, fewer than three receptions per game, and has just two touchdowns total. With Kenny Pickett now at quarterback, the offense is going to struggle a bit, and the Steelers are going to be playing from behind. With limited opportunities and a terrible rushing average, Harris is the early candidate for fantasy bust this season.

Ken Walker - Seattle

Rashaad Penny had season-ending leg surgery, clearing the way for Ken Walker to take over as the primary running back for the Seahawks. The rookie posted his best stats this week against the Saints - with 88 rushing yards and a touchdown. He still isn't contributing much on the receiving end, and Seattle isn't going to win many games this season, but Walker will see plenty of volume the rest of the season. He should post reasonable numbers for the rest of the season if he can stay healthy.

Ezekiel Elliott - Dallas

The Cowboy fan in me keeps hoping Elliott will have a breakout game and return to the 1200-yard, 10-touchdown back he was just a couple of seasons ago. Sadly, I feel like this is more of the beginning of a downward slide for Elliott as he continues to post pedestrian numbers, despite some solid, conservative play by the Dallas offense. While Tony Pollard is averaging over 5.6 yards per carry, Zeke is averaging under 4. He has just one total touchdown so far this season and just five receptions in five games. Right now, his fantasy success is only based on volume, and he could easily finish this season with career-low stats if he and Pollard get more of an even split.

Andy Hicks

Najee Harris - Pittsburgh

Maybe it is his foot injury. Maybe it is the underperforming offense, but Najeh Harris is struggling and costing many fantasy managers their 2022 season. He has to move down rankings until there are signs of optimism. He looked like one of the most promising running backs in 2021, but this year, he has lost his burst.

Saquon Barkley - NY Giants

It has been a lean couple of years for Saquon Barkley managers. 2022 has turned that around in a spectacular fashion. He is on pace to smash career highs and justify the high price paid by the Giants in drafting him. He moves back inside my top five running backs. On talent alone, that should be a permanent position, but another injury is always a concern.

Chase Edmonds/Raheem Mostert - Miami

It appeared as if Raheem Mostert was just a roster depth signing by the Dolphins after Chase Edmonds and Sony Michel were signed to bigger fanfare. Edmonds is coming off a one-carry game and is averaging three yards a carry. Mostert is showing his occasional form in San Francisco, between injuries, was no fluke. At 30 years of age, his longevity is in question, but his value will never be higher than now. Edmonds is playing himself out of the league.

Dan Hindery

Breece Hall - NY Jets

Hall moves up eight spots to RB2 in my updated rankings. He is currently going off of the board as the RB10 in rest-of-season best ball drafts and will not turn 22 until next May. Given the importance of youth and how quickly some of the running backs in their mid-twenties have fallen off this season, it makes sense to err on the side of youth. If Hall keeps up his play from recent weeks, he is going to be a Top 5 overall pick in 2023 startup drafts.

Rhamondre Stevenson - New England

Stevenson moves up eight spots to RB24. He has room to rise further if he can take advantage of the injury to Damien Harris to truly establish himself as the lead back for the Patriots. Looking further into the future, Harris is a free agent in six months, and Stevenson will remain on his rookie deal through the 2024 season. There is a potential window of opportunity for Stevenson to establish himself over the medium term.

Rachaad White, Tampa Bay

White moves up to RB28 as he continues to eat into Leonard Fournette’s share of the passing-down work. White was an older rookie, but he is still a few years younger than Fournette and looks like the heir apparent whenever Fournette slows down.

Jason Wood

Austin Ekeler - LA Chargers

Shame on me for overreacting to a dreadful early season start. Ekeler is back on a 20+ touchdown pace and is working as a high-volume receiver and runner. In an era where "franchise tailback" is an urban legend, Ekeler deserves a spot in the Top 10 of the position, at least for another season or two.

Derrick Henry - Tennessee

At some point, Henry will fall off, given his 350+ touch annual workload. But those fearing 2022 was the year are now wishing they hadn't sold early. Henry is back to dominating regardless of the Titans' game script and has another few seasons as a difference-maker ahead.

Javonte Williams - Denver

Williams was pushing into the Top 5 in some dynasty circles and was squarely a top-10 fantasy back in nearly every set of dynasty rankings. But his tragic knee injury and what looks to be a busted hire in head coach Nathaniel Hackett puts Williams' career trajectory in doubt. He not only tore his ACL but damaged adjoining ligaments, which means a longer recovery and a limited chance of ever returning to his previous level.

Dameon Pierce - Houston

Draft capital is much more important and predictive than most give it credit, and dynasty managers can often arbitrage effectively by paying up for high draft picks who struggle early or selling off lower-round players who have a hot early performance. But I'm recommending buying Pierce because he's passed every test. Pierce dominates regardless of the game script, much like James Robinson did in 2021 for the Jaguars. If Pierce isn't in your Top 25 at the position, I'm guessing you haven't watched him play yet.

Ken Walker - Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks offense is significantly better than we feared, and Rashaad Penny suffered yet another significant injury. The door is wide open for Walker to become an every-down contributor, and this could be your last chance to acquire Walker before he fetches top-10 value.

What week is your drop dead week for deciding to push in as a contender or ship off some older pieces?

Jason Wood

I'll say by Week 8 because you'll have a large enough sample size to get a real sense of your team's strengths and weaknesses, as well as its potential to peak and reach a level that could yield a championship.