Photo: USA Today Sports

We tend to think of fantasy football scoring in neat little buckets in the offseason. This running back will get you 21 PPR points per game, or this WR2 will give you 13 points per game. During the season, we have a more accurate view of reality; scoring is a roller coaster. A running back who may have carried a top-12 ADP could be a mid-season disappointment, sitting at RB17 in points per game. But one record-threatening performance could vault him to RB7. We have given this normalization a title: regression to the mean.

Through the first eight weeks, Joe Mixon was quietly one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy. Mixon carried an ADP of RB7 and was the 9th overall player in drafts. Through the first eight weeks, he was RB17 per game, averaging 3.34 yards per carry for 14.6 PPR points. But regression to the mean struck; in one of the best fantasy performances ever, he scored four rushing touchdowns and added a receiving touchdown to bring his seasonal value up to…RB7.

Davante Adams was another case of regression to the mean. In Week 8, he recorded one of the worst games of his career, catching just one pass for three yards. In Week 9, Adams snapped back, recording ten receptions, 146 yards, and two touchdowns. It was the fourth time he hit all three of those numbers in his career. Adams has "disappointed" on his ADP as WR4 but only because the other receivers push him down to WR7 on a per-game basis. His 36-point game pushed him to 19.5 PPR points per game, right on line with his 2021 average of 19.3, when he finished as WR4.

Other players are redefining their mean. Justin Fields looked lost through the first month of the season, and the Bears were averaging just 15.5 points per game through the first six weeks of the season, good for 29th in the league. But something clicked; over the last three weeks, the team has nearly doubled their scoring output to 31.3 points per game, which would lead the league. Fields has been the engine. From Weeks 1 through 4, Fields sat as QB31 in total points, averaging 10.39 points per game. From Weeks 5 to 9, he has been QB1 overall in total points, with a 25.91 per game average. If he had not already arrived, Sunday was his coming-out party. His 178 rushing yards set an NFL record for single-game quarterback rushing. From Week 3 on, he has averaged 79 rushing yards per game, a 1,345-yard season-long pace. In 2021 Jonathan Taylor was the only player who topped 1,345 rushing yards.

Fields' opponent from Sunday saw their player redefining a mean. The Dolphins offense was again explosive, with Tua Tagovailoa topping 300 passing yards and Tyreek Hill stretching his league-leading receiving total to 1,104 yards. Through nine games, Hill has posted only 14 players who passed in 2021. For all of his success, Hill has topped 1,276 yards only once, with 1,479 yards in 2018. Hill is on pace to fly past Calvin Johnson's 1,964 yards with a 2,085 season-long rate.

Fields and Tagovailoa are forcing their way into the conversation as Top 12 Superflex dynasty players and will likely be hard-pressed to make it out of the first round of startup drafts this offseason. These players should be targeted aggressively in rebuilding scenarios though the genie is likely out of the bottle.

The idea of regression to the mean is important to remember as we approach fantasy trade deadlines. Players like Jonathan Taylor, Kyle Pitts, and Diontae Johnson have disappointed at their ADPs. The temptation to flip them for players producing right now can be intense. In reality, selling players at a discount will only serve to limit the ceiling of your team, and if you have survived playoff contention with their current production in most instances, it is best to hold and hope for regression.

Breakouts are still lurking. Amon-Ra St. Brown was WR62 from Weeks 1-12 and WR2 from Weeks 13-18. Rashaad Penny sat at RB109 from Weeks 1-13 and was RB1 from Weeks 14-18. Feel free to take chances on the talent you believe in. Regression is coming for everyone.

Blind Resume

A group of the top wide receivers in ADP and one young player tied to an elite fantasy quarterback. Can you spot the outlier?

Revenge! A Dish Best Served On The Field

Week 9

• QB Kirk Cousins, Minnesota vs Washington - Won 20-17 - 265 yards / 2 TDs
• TE Robert Tonyan Jr, Green Bay vs Detroit - Lost 15-9 - 3 receptions / 29 yards
• RB Jamaal Williams, Detroit vs Green Bay - Won 15-9 - 24 rushes / 81 yards
• WR Zay Jones, Jacksonville vs Las Vegas - Won 27-20 - 5 receptions / 40 yards
• RB Mark Ingram, New Orleans vs Baltimore - Monday Night - Injury scratch

Week 10

• WR Stefon Diggs, Buffalo vs Minnesota
• QB Jacoby Brissett, Cleveland vs Miami
• RB Raheem Mostert, Miami vs Cleveland

Deep Dynasty Watch List

WR Samori Toure, Green Bay - Toure flashed with a touchdown late in the team's loss to Buffalo. Still, with Romeo Doubs carted off and waiting on injury confirmation and Christian Watson suffering a potential head injury the second week in a row, Toure worked into the rotation. The Packers have struggled to find answers at receiver, and Toure could claim a spot in the rotation in the second half of 2022.

RB Kylin Hill, Green Bay - Aaron Jones also popped onto the injury report in a rough loss to the Lions. This offense has struggled, and a potent Dallas offense waits in Week 10, but if Jones misses extended time, Hill will likely get his opportunity to serve as a compliment to A.J. Dillon. Keep adding the next man up as running back injury situations mushroom.