Welcome to Week 2 of the 2022 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates who surprised us last week, the fantasy value of the 49ers' backfield, this week's free agent pool, and where how we'd value key players if fantasy drafts were held today..
Let's roll...
Week 1 Surprises
Matt Waldman: What was the most surprising Week 1 development? What course of action do you recommend for fantasy GMs?
Jason Wood: The Rams' offensive line gave up seven sacks and looked like one of the league's worst units. Los Angeles was understandably a fantasy priority in drafts this year after winning the Super Bowl last year while fielding one of the NFL's top-scoring offenses. But outside of Cooper Kupp, who will get a massive target share regardless of the game script, the entire offense struggled.
It's very hard to field a functional offense when the line is giving up pressure on nearly every snap. That led to Matthew Stafford throwing three interceptions and having neither the time nor confidence to look for secondary threats, including Allen Robinson. Despite the preseason rhetoric, I had largely discounted Stafford's shoulder injury, but poor line play was not in the cards. Fantasy GMs are best served to put everyone but Kupp on their bench if they can, although that's a luxury most probably don't have. The good news is that very few defenses will be as menacing as the Bills.
Ben Cummins: The most surprising development to me was Irv Smith acting as the TE2 in Minnesota. Smith played on 31% of the offensive snaps, ran 15 routes, and saw 2 targets compared to Johnny Mundt’s 65% offensive snap participation, 16 routes run, and 3 targets.
Smith missed a lot of time during training camp and the preseason due to a thumb injury, so this usage isn’t worth overreacting to yet. But Smith was reportedly 100% healthy for Week 1, so Smith’s usage over the next few weeks must be closely monitored. Fantasy GMs should not cut Smith yet, but if this concerning usage continues into Week 2 and/or Week 3, we must readjust our priors, no matter how talented we think Smith is.
Joseph Haggan: One of the most surprising developments to me was the Giants' usage of Kadarius Toney. Toney is easily the most explosive of the Giants' wide receiver corps, though often injured. Toney played only 7 offensive snaps. That was 20 less than David Sills and 35 less than Richie James. Even with WanDale Robinson leaving with an injury after nine snaps, an active Toney still didn't see the field.
Waldman: Toney was healthy, but Brian Daboll told the media after the game that Toney didn't practice enough to earn playing time. He's sending a clear message that Toney and the rest of the team must work to Daboll's standard to earn playing. As my buddy Eric Stoner texted me on Monday, Daboll has no draft-day ties to these players so he has even more opportunity to set expectations that send a message to the entire team that talent alone won't cut it. He'll let Toney go elsewhere and be someone else's headache if he doesn't figure it out. If he does, the Giants have an ascending star.
Haggan: It makes sense why James saw six targets, converting them into 5 catches for 59 yards even with Robinson getting hurt. With Robinson out in Week 2, if we don't see Toney on the field more often, I would be extremely worried about his value in New York.
Dave Kluge: After Cam Akers laid an egg in a primetime Thursday Night Football game, expectations for James Robinson were understandably tempered. Well, he out-touched Travis Etienne 12-6 and scored twice. He appears to be just fine. It’s too early to freak out about Travis Etienne. He was drafted knowing that he’ll receive the high-value touches through the air and near the goal line, and that should still happen.
The advice for fantasy managers is to operate under the assumption that the old Robinson is back and fully healthy. Robinson has averaged nearly 16 fantasy points per game throughout his career. With Doug Pederson preferring to deploy a committee of running backs, expect touches to be split between Robinson and Etienne going forward. Although Etienne’s ceiling is still higher, Robinson is instantly worthy of RB2 or flex consideration.
Waldman: I agree, Dave. I profiled the film and data on these two this week and arrived at a similar conclusion. I'm a bigger fan of Robinson for his craft at the position, but I respect Etienne's role and big-play ability — even if there are more trapdoors to his developing craft at this time.
Sean Settle: We knew there was going to be a major downgrade at wide receiver for Green Bay, but the entire offensive performance was lackluster at best. A.J. Dillon out-touching Aaron Jones should be a crime, and Aron Rodgers was visibly frustrated the majority of the game. There is a lot of football left to be played, and we saw Rogers and company bounce back after a similar disappointing performance in week1 last year against the Saints. The Jones and Dillon dynamic will work itself out, but I am watching Rogers and these receivers closely and avoiding the reigning MVP until they get into some sort of rhythm.
Waldman: A crime? I agree Jones is an excellent back. I also know Dillon is closer in ability than many realize. They are a strong 1-2 punch, which frustrates fantasy GMs.
Kevin Coleman: The re-emergence of Michael Thomas as a legitimate WR1 option in leagues was one of the most surprising developments in Week 1. Everyone knows that when Thomas is healthy, he is one of the best players in the league; the question has always been about his ability to stay healthy. Heading into the week, Thomas was dealing with a hamstring injury that threatened to sideline him for a third straight season, but Thomas was active and made the most out of his opportunity. He had the second-most targets on the team with eight and would finish with five receptions for fifty-seven yards and two touchdowns.
Those numbers were good enough to make him WR8 for the week. Based on his pre-season ADP, Thomas could be the type of late-round ceiling play that helps managers win their league. He is now a must-start every week, and if, by chance, Jameis Winston is available in your leagues, he’s a worthy addition to your redraft rosters. Winston is someone I highlighted in last week's roundtable that could be a sleeper to finish as a top-12 quarterback in 2022, and with a healthy Thomas, it could become a reality.
Jordan McNamara: The Philadelphia Eagles dropped back to pass 42 times in Week 1, good for 67% of their plays. This is similar to the dropbacks the team had in the first half of last year, before turning their offense into a run-focused approach. The addition of A.J. Brown signaled a potential turn towards a pass-heavy offense, and Week 1 is confirmation. I'm bullish on Hurts, Brown, and Dallas Goedert and would particularly recommend testing the Goedert market in your league.
49ers' Backfield
Waldman: At this time last year, I posed the same question after Elijah Mitchell took over for an injured Raheem Mostert. Let's keep the same question and change the names...
Elijah Mitchell is out for at least eight weeks. By all accounts of mainstay beat writers since May, Jeff Wilson earned the vast majority of reps as the replacement. Tyrion Davis-Price and Jordan Mason have compelling speed and power, but they are inexperienced rookies. What's your advice for fantasy managers about this backfield that has one of the best offensive lines and run games in the league in terms of design?
- Who is your priority addition?
- Are you dropping anyone?
- Any situations where you're keeping multiple options?
- Do you have half a mind to avoid all of it?
Hot potato!
Coleman: This running back room is a nightmare for fantasy managers now that Elijah Mitchell is out. The issue for fantasy managers is that both Trey Lance and Deebo Samuel will likely take away enough of the perceived volume that the 49ers offer their running backs. In the three games that Trey Lance played most of the team's snaps in 2021, he had 31 carries for 161 yards and one rushing touchdown averaging sixty yards a game on the ground. In his first start of the 2021 season, he had a team-high 16 attempts and was the team's leading rusher.
Lance rushed for 1,100 yards and fourteen touchdowns in his one full season in college. With the injury to Mitchell, it’s hard to imagine the 49ers not utilizing his rushing ability within this offense, especially in the red zone. We could see a reduction of red zone touches for running backs if the 49ers decide to use Lance in that role, or those touches could go to Deebo Samuel. Either way, Lance and Samuel saw their value increase after Week 1.
Based on all the options in that backfield, it seems backup Jeff Wilson will get most of the opportunities in week two. In four years under Kyle Shanahan, he has rushed for 1,265 yards and scored 17 total touchdowns. Wilson has shown flashes of potential over his career but hasn't been able to stay healthy. Last year, he only played in nine games, but in two of those in which he was the featured back, he scored at least 15 fantasy points per game. There is a scenario where Wilson is a great plug-and-play pickup in your redraft leagues, especially in PPR leagues.
McNamara: The 49ers backfield is enticing because it is led by Kyle Shanahan, but the scoring is less favorable to running backs than many think. For example, Week 1 saw San Francisco run the fewest running back routes per dropbacks. This is similar to last year when they ranked 31st. As a result, the backfield produced in the bottom 10 in running back expected fantasy points. I like a chip and a chair in the offense, with Wilson and Davis-Price stashed in a high percentage of my leagues coming into this week. If they are free agents, I'd make price-enforcing bids for Davis-Price and Jordan Mason, but I wouldn't blow my FAAB budget on it.
Cummins: Jordan Mason was active on Sunday 1 but didn’t see the field at all despite Elijah Mitchell getting injured early in the game. And that is the player Tyrion Davis-Price was made inactive for in Week 1. There were questions regarding Deebo Samuel’s running back usage after his trade demand this offseason, but a new contract and eight carries In Week 1 later, it doesn’t appear much has changed. Jeff Wilson is the starter and Samuel will remain involved. Neither Mason nor Davis-Price is a priority addition. However, if you have seven or more bench spots, Mason is the player I’m stashing to see how playing time is handled over the next few weeks.
Settle: In a game overshadowed by weather that should have lent itself to running the ball, the 49ers did not look good at all. The only name I am considering from this list right now is Wilson and even that may be a stretch. Trey Lance Looked shaky, George Kittle is already dealing with injury issues, and Deebo Samuel got his big payday and does not look like the same player from a season ago. There is a lot of time for this team to turn things around and this offensive line group is one of the best in the NFL. However, there are so many other issues and holes with this offense right now that I am avoiding the group until they get things figured out. Stash Wilson if the cost is not too high and hope they can get things turned around quickly.
Kluge: Wilson appears to be the guy. Excluding a 2018 game where he was knocked out in the first quarter with a shoulder injury, he's started in 8 career games for the 49ers. In those games, he has averaged 18.6 carries, 90.3 rushing yards, 2.5 targets, 9.5 receiving yards, and one TD. Added up, that comes out to 17.6 PPR fantasy points per game. However, we’ve been duped by San Fransisco quite frequently in recent memory.
Looking at the 2021 third overall pick debacle, the Trey Sermon drumbeat out of camp last offseason, Deebo Samuel’s contract disputes, and the Jimmy Garoppolo contract situation, it might not hurt to operate under the pretense that we could be wrong. So while all signs point to Wilson as “the guy,” you should absolutely be bidding on Jordan Mason as well. Not only does the San Francisco run scheme lead to injuries often, but we could be flat out wrong on reading this backfield.
Haggan: My advice on this is to take the cheap route if you want to invest at all in this backfield as it stands. Jordan Mason was far more effective than Davis-Price during the pre-season. As it was, Deebo Samuel split the backfield touches with Jeff Wilson. Deebo had 8 carries to Wilson's 9. Deebo is far more explosive and effective. Add the fact that the 49ers just signed Marlon Mack and the backfield gets even murkier and more crowded. I'm not spending many FAAB dollars on any of the 49ers' remaining backs because there is a good chance you will be wrong.
Wilson will be too expensive, Davis-Price isn't worth it, and Mason has to play leapfrog to get touches. Try and grab Marlon Mack, easily the most seasoned of the group on the cheap and hope he can grab the reigns in a week or two.
Wood: This has the makings of a piecemeal situation, unfortunately. Deebo Samuel was the most effective ball carrier in Week 1, and we should expect that to continue. He'll have a high per-carry average and score the most touchdowns. Presumably, Trey Lance will also run more effectively than he did in Week 1 during the monsoon in Chicago. With Lance and Samuel taking up most of the high-leverage running plays near the goal-line, there aren't any 49ers tailbacks worth starting in 12-team leagues until further notice. I agree with Ben that Wilson will be the starter until he's hurt, too, and I'd slightly lean toward adding Mason over Davis-Price since Mason was active last week.
The Waiver Wire
Waldman: Here's a list of players from Yahoo! who are on less than 33 percent of that format's rosters:
- Nico Collins
- Devin Duvernay
- Isaiah Pacheco
- Mike Davis
- Mark Ingram
- Sammy Watkins
- Rondale Moore
- Jahan Dotson
- Joshua Palmer
- A.J. Green
- Rex Burkhead
- Kenyan Drake
- Jeff Wilson
- Robbie Anderson
- K.J. Osborn
- Isaiah Likely
- Dontrell Hilliard
- Ryan Tannehill
- Baker Mayfield
- Curtis Samuel
- Davis Mills
Most fantasy leagues have already selected their waivers by the time this article is posted. So I want you to do the following. You can go off the list, but they must be on less than 33% of Yahoo! rosters from the link above. If you don't know, use this bulleted list and play it safe.
- Tell me which player from the list you think is most likely to be selected with the best production ceiling this year.
- Tell me which player is most likely to still be on a lot of waiver wires who you are monitoring because you think they still have great upside but the opportunities/play has you a bit tentative to bite this week but will bid a lot next week if he makes good in Week 2.
- Which player is Fool's Gold?
Where do you stand?
Kluge: Wilson is my primary target at the running back slot, but Joshua Palmer is a must-add in all formats. His production on Sunday was far from exciting. He hauled in three of five targets for four yards. But the big-bodied receiver profiles to fill in Keenan Allen’s role. Someone needs to step up with Mike Williams being non-existent in Week 1. Palmer has a chance to lead the Chargers in targets in Week 2 in what should be a shootout against the Chiefs.
McNamara: I think Jeff Wilson has the best chance to have the high ceiling. If there is anyone in the 49ers backfield who will consolidate the passing and receiving game, it will be Wilson.
Kluge: Davis is fool's gold. If he went undrafted in your league, I can’t imagine many are clamoring to the waiver wire to get him after his two-carry-eleven-yard performance on Sunday. Kenyan Drake out-touched him, appearing to be the back to sign until J.K. Dobbins returns.
Waldman: Did Davis do something to you, Dave? Did he turn down your wife's baked goods?
Kluge: Ha! I thought his performance in Carolina was a mirage and still think he's easily replaceable. I'm sure if he smelled what Emily was baking, he'd need a weight clause in his next contract.
Coleman: Based on this list, Dotson stands above the rest. Dotson was targeted five times in Week 1, catching three of them for forty yards and two touchdowns. He was efficient with his targets, and one of Dotson’s strengths dating back to his college football career is finding the endzone. He also played more snaps than fellow wide receiver Curtis Samuel. If your looking for a wide receiver flex play with a high ceiling Dotson is the player to target. Quarterback Carson Wentz trusted Dotson in the red zone, and we could see game scripts for Washington dictate a high passing volume offense this season. For those reasons, Dotson has the best ceiling of the players on that list.
Haggan: Dotson has a great ceiling. He has a quarterback that likes to take chances in Carson Wentz, and Dotson does great in 50-50 ball situations. His speed and YAC ability should have the Commanders scheming for him. Sure, in Week 1, it was the Samuel show during Week 1, but Dotson was second on the team in snaps with 68, one less than Terry McLaurin. Samuel saw only 55 snaps. Wentz threw the ball 41 times and tossed four touchdowns. The Commanders do not project to be a highly competitive team, so that level of volume could remain consistent, leaving plenty of love to spread around. Dotson does seem to be a favorite in the red zone, making him a nice waiver addition.
Settle: Dotson may have the highest ceiling in this group. His Week 1 performance was driven by 2 touchdown catches, but it was the trust and chemistry in the red zone that gives the high ceiling for me. Many of these other names will be fighting for touches, will lose work when others come back from injury, or have a lot of competition. Dotson is playing in an offense that will likely be throwing a lot and should be squarely in the mix with Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel for targets. When Carson Wentz finds a favorite, he will target them early and often, and he seems to really like Dotson in the red zone right now.
Haggan: Jones is a player I will continue to monitor. He played the second most snaps of the Jaguars Wide Receiver group, trailing only Christian Kirk. Jones was second in targets with 9, a 21.5% target share. Behind Christian Kirk, it could be any of Zay Jones, Marvin Jones, Evan Engram, or even Etienne coming second in targets. If Jones consistently paces 7-9 targets per game, he holds decent PPR value. With how much the Jaguars will be playing from behind, 7-9 targets per game is very possible.
Coleman: For me, it’s Likely, who made the most of his opportunity this preseason. He had twelve receptions for 144 yards and a touchdown and proved he could be a playmaker on the field. Head coach John Harbaugh has been quoted as saying that Likely will be a big part of the offense this year, but in Week 1, he only saw four targets and had zero receptions. There could be a scenario where he becomes the third option in this offense which makes him an intriguing waiver wire option, but until he proves it on the field, you just can’t roster him. He has a good matchup against Miami this weekend, and if he converts some of those targets into receptions, he is a player to watch. Also, if Mark Andrews was to go down with an injury, Likely is a must-add in all formats.
McNamara: If Keenan Allen is out an extended time, someone will get the opportunity in the LA offense. This should be Mike Williams but could be Palmer or DeAndre Carter. I'm probably waiting a week if Palmer is available and seeing how he turns out on Thursday Night Football.
Haggan: Samuel is fool's gold. Terry McLaurin will garner a higher target share moving forward. Jahan Dotson has shown good red zone chemistry with Wentz already. Logan Thomas is getting healthier...I think many people forget he was a top-five tight end just two years ago. Add running backs Antonio Gibson and JD McKissic to the mix, and there are just too many mouths to feed. Samuel will be a high-priority add for many, but too expensive.
Coleman: The answer here is Green. The Arizona Cardinals played from behind all game against the Kansas City Chiefs, which should have inflated Green’s numbers. Instead, the veteran wide receiver had just two receptions for thirteen yards in Week 1. Green should be commanding a much higher target share with DeAndre Hopkins still suspended and Rondale Moore out with an injury, but at this point of his career, he just can’t do it. Green is a player that is just taking up roster space if you have him on your team.
McNamara: Howard will be a big waiver wire player this week off of his two-touchdown performance. But the reality is he ran six routes. Not even the great version of O.J. Howard can keep up that sort of pace.
Cummins: I’m going with two players for the highest ceiling: Joshua Palmer and K.J. Osborn. Palmer was a ghost in Week 1 from a production standpoint but let’s dig into his usage: 75% of the offensive snaps, 26 routes run, and 3 targets. That usage is very promising for a second-year wide receiver tied to Justin Herbert in one of the best offenses in football. And Keenan Allen is already dealing with a hamstring injury and is likely to miss Week 2. Regardless, Palmer is the locked-in WR3 for the Chargers. He offers standalone value and contingency upside should something happen to Allen or Mike Williams.
As for K.J. Osborn, only three wide receivers played for the Vikings in Week 1, so Osborn has no competition for the WR3 role. He played on 68% of the offensive snaps, ran 28 routes, and saw 3 targets. New head coach, Kevin O’Connell has Minnesota’s offense passing more and playing more aggressively. Osborn offers standalone value and contingency upside should something happen to Justin Jefferson or Adam Thielen
Isiah Pacheco played on 23% of the offensive snaps in Week 1, carrying 12 times for 62 yards and 1 touchdown and adding 1 reception for 11 yards. He looked good, and his upside in the Chiefs’ offense is exciting yet most of his usage and production came when the game was already out of hand since Kansas City blew out the Cardinals. Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon played more snaps than Pacheco, and earlier on in the game as well. Still, I’m monitoring Pacheco’s usage over the next few weeks because if his Week 1 performance earns him more playing time moving forward, we could have something here.
Sammy Watkins is Fool’s Gold. He played on 67% of the offensive snaps but Allen Lazard was out, and it was both Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs’ first NFL games. Expect Lazard to play a large role when healthy and for both rookies to grow within the offense. Watkins offers little standalone value and upside.
Wood: With all due respect to Joseph, Samuel stands out here. We knew Samuel was capable of high-level play in Carolina, but injuries have destroyed his value, both perceived and literal. Yet, the Commanders' coaches -- who also coached him in Carolina -- didn't stop believing. Carson Wentz targets Samuel 11 times; that's not a target volume we should presume is entirely fluky. With three quality receivers, it's hard to see any of them as weekly stars, but we shouldn't discount Samuel as the one to roster going forward, particularly in PPR leagues.
Settle: Samuel has shown the ability to score in bunches and be highly targeted when healthy. He has recently dealt with issues that likely have a lot of owners gun-shy about picking him up. The Carson Wentz experiment had mixed results in Week 1, which will also keep some owners away. Samuel had 8 catches for 55 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. This is already more than all of last season due to injury. Samuel will not be on the waiver list very long if he returns to form from his Carolina days.
Wood: I drafted Moore at the end of quite a few drafts this year, figuring he had a chance to stake a claim to the Cardinals passing attack early with DeAndre Hopkins suspended and Zach Ertz battling minor injuries. Unfortunately, Moore got hurt late in camp and is now set to miss multiple weeks. He's going to be dropped by almost everyone who drafted him, and he'll stay on waivers for now. But I still think he could be fantasy relevant later in the year.
A lot of these players are fool's gold. Hilliard scored two receiving touchdowns and otherwise remains a minor contributor buried behind one of the league's few every-down workhorses. But he's not my pick, instead, it's Isiah Pacheco. Yes, Pacheco was a late-rising fantasy darling after a strong camp. But despite all the rhetoric, Clyde Edwards-Helaire was effective in Week 1 as the lead back, and Pacheco's box score is misleading because it all came at the end of the game when the Chiefs called off the hounds -- aka, benched their starters -- and the Cardinals were playing prevent defense allowing Pacheco to rack up easy yardage.
Settle: Anderson is just the 3rd option in an offense that will likely finish in the middle of the pack this season. Baker Mayfield showed inconsistent play in what should have been a revenge game And Christian McCaffrey could not get anything going on the ground against the Browns. Anderson was the beneficiary of one really big play on a busted coverage. Anderson caught less than half of his targets last season and was one of the most inefficient receivers in the entire league. Do not expect a lot to change this season despite the first 100-yard game since 2020 for Anderson.
The Re-Draft Game
Waldman: Pick an RB, WR, and TE from the list to discuss where you would value them if your draft was today. ADPs based on FBG consensus in parenthesis.
- Saquon Barkley: 15
- Leonard Fournette: 22
- Travis Etienne: 36
- Cam Akers: 48
- Cordarrelle Patterson: 91
- Michael Thomas: 64
- Hunter Renfrow: 87
- Kadarius Toney: 105
- JuJu Smith-Schuster: 62
- Amari Cooper: 75
- Jaylen Waddle: 41
- Kyle Pitts: 30
- Dalton Schultz: 68
- Pat Freiermuth: 112
- Gerald Everett: 163
Thanks for playing, parting gifts are in the back.
Settle: The ADP of 15 for Barkley felt justified based on injury history and playing for an offense not expected to be in a run-centric game script. However, Barkley blew that out of the water in Week 1 with a very efficient 164 yards on 18 carries and a touchdown, and another 6 catches for 30 yards. He looked every bit of the top pick from 2018 and helped the Giants take down the Titans in Week 1. He outperformed almost every running back taken ahead of him in just about any format. If I were to redraft after this performance, I would put him just behind Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey and ahead of Dalvin Cook and Austin Ekeler. Anyone who grabbed him at 15 is in a good spot right now.
Wood: Barkley would be my RB4. I was above consensus on Barkley before this week, but the explosiveness, vision, and power we saw from him against the Titans surely wakes everyone else up to his value. He's no more likely to get hurt than anyone else at the position, yet he was discounted by a full round because of what's happened in the past. Big mistake. He would be off the board in the first half of the first round in any redraft league.
Haggan: Barkley looks to be 100%. If I were drafting right now, he would be my RB2, potentially RB1. The only running back I would take over Barkley is Jonathan Taylor, although Barkley has an even higher ceiling based on his usage in the passing game. Austin Ekler's ADP was 5.4, and Barkley is easily ahead of him.
Barkley was explosive and showed tremendous vision against the Titans, routinely carving them up for chunk plays and ultimately the homerun 64-yard touchdown. Barkley started the season as the 15th overall in ADP, he would go top 5 right now.
Coleman: Barkley was being drafted way too low in redraft leagues this off-season and has always had the potential to be a league winner. Based on his performance last weekend, it’s clear that Barkley should have been a top-5 pick in single quarterback leagues, if not the number-one pick. He’s entering the final year of his rookie deal and will be motivated to have his best season. He’s in the best shape of his life and playing in the best offensive system in his career. The Giants improved their offensive line and based on their Week 1 performance, he’ll be extremely efficient in that system. There is also a chance that he has more than 80 targets this season.
Kluge: It makes sense that fantasy GMs faded Barkley into the second round this year. There were concerns about how he’d bounce back from injury. A new offense run by Brian Daboll led to fears of a possible committee. But if we knew that Barkley would look like he did and get the workload we saw, he’d have been a top-six fantasy pick. Those who took the risk in drafting him may have stumbled into this year’s RB1.
I just wrote about Thomas in my “Three Up, Three Down” article as a player trending up. I had almost no expectations for Thomas this year. Having hardly played over the last two seasons and never getting a start with Jameis Winston, I thought he was at the end of his road. But he seemed to gain confidence with every snap in Week 1. He hauled in and scored on both of his red-zone targets, both coming at crucial moments in the fourth quarter. He probably doesn’t have a 1,700-yard season in his range of outcomes anymore. But there’s no reason to expect he doesn’t lead the Saints in targets again this year. Knowing what we know now, Thomas probably should have been a third-round pick this off-season.
Settle: I grabbed Thomas late in drafts so many times this season. The injury woes kept most people away, and an ADP of 64 for what should be a top 15 WR was too good of a value to pass. Thomas showed great rapport with a healthy Jameis Winston and continued to wreak havoc on quick slants and in the red zone. Thomas would be drafted in the same tier as Mike Evans after this initial performance. I would not move him back into the Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson tier like he would have been a few years ago but he is trending in the right direction early this season.
Wood: Agree, Dave. Thomas looks good but is he really back? I have him rising to WR25 if we re-drafted. Many didn't know what to do with Michael Thomas given the prolonged absence, lack of preseason participation, and changes at head coach and quarterback. And while Thomas' health remains a worry until we see him stay on the field for an extended stretch, there's no denying he stepped back into the offense as the alpha receiver. He looked great, particularly in the red zone. His chemistry with Jameis Winston is readily apparent, and Thomas looks like a must-start player going forward.
I'm not ready to anoint Everett a Top-12 option yet, but Week 1 was encouraging. The Chargers are jam-packed with receiving talent at every position, and with neither Austin Ekeler nor Mike Williams getting their usual target share in Week 1, we have to be mindful of Everett's hot start being a fluke. But he looked fluid and ran 23 routes in his first game in Los Angeles.
Kluge: Everett should have been drafted much higher than he was. Justin Herbert threw eight touchdowns to tight ends last year. Everett is a massive upgrade from anyone in that corps and could slot in as a favorite target for Herbert behind Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. With target share among tight ends being pretty low, you want your sleeper tight ends tied to good offenses. The Chargers are one of the best, and Everett will have the chance to stumble into the end zone nearly every week.
Haggan: Everett was being drafted as a middle-of-the-road TE2. He showed solid rapport with Justin Herbert, racking up 54 yards and a touchdown. Keenan Allen left with a hamstring injury, opening up many targets. Everett has the athleticism to really stretch the seam for the Chargers. A 34-year-old Jared Cook racked up 564 receiving yards and four touchdowns with Herbert in 2021 and Everett has far more tools to his repertoire. He has a legitimate top 10 TE upside.
Renfrow was being drafted as a high-end WR2 after his Pro Bowl 2021 season. Unfortunately for Renfrow, the Raiders added Derek Carr's favorite college target, Davante Adams. This resulted in Adams seeing an obscene 46% target share. Renfrow tied for second on the team in targets with Darren Waller, both seeing six targets. Renfrow converted those targets to just 3 receptions, all in the 0-10 yard range, and was the target on one of Carr's three interceptions. Renfrow had just 21 receiving yards, and his role in the offense has dropped him to the third option rather than the 1A/1B. If I were drafting today, I wouldn't draft Renfrow any higher than a WR3, past the 100 ADP mark.
Waldman: I agree with you three about Barkley and Everett. I'll posit that the Rams and Seahawks underutilized Everett during his career. Some of that is Everett's fault for not being a top blocker in offenses that needed a player who was equal parts blocker and receiver. When his past teams were in heavy passing situations, Everett was a good option in empty alignments, but this didn't happen enough to make him a worthwhile fantasy option. The Chargers like to spread the field enough and have a strong enough offensive line to leverage Everett's skills a little more. At the same time, the Raiders defense isn't a great barometer.
I'm still a believer in Renfrow. The Chargers had a veteran corner tailing Renfrow for much of the game and I think the Raiders offense is still adjusting to its new scheme. I expect adjustments within the month that will lead to better production.
Cummins: Travis Etienne was drafted too early for me in the third and fourth rounds this summer. Doug Pederson called James Robinson the Jaguars’ starting running back months ago and then put that idea into action in Week 1. Robinson saw 14 total opportunities to Etienne’s 8. Etienne certainly is an exciting asset and is going to have big receiving games, but it’s going to take some time for him to adjust to playing football again, especially at the NFL level after missing his entire rookie season due to injury. Stuck in a timeshare with Robinson, who looked way better than expected in Week 1, Etienne would be a consideration for me in the seventh round if drafting today.
Amari Cooper was drafted too early for me all summer. Stuck with Jacoby Brissett for the majority of the year on a run-first team, Cooper’s elite usage on Sunday (83% offensive snaps, 34 routes run, and 6 targets) turned into only 3 receptions for 17 yards. And things can’t get that much better because Cooper will compete all season for targets with the running backs, David Njoku, David Bell, and Donovan Peoples-Jones. Bell played little in Week 1 but I expect his role to grow as the season goes on. Surprisingly though, Peoples-Jones is an immediate threat to Cooper. People -Jones also played 83% of the offensive snaps on Sunday, ran one more route than Cooper (35), and saw 5 more targets (11). If drafting today, Cooper would be in consideration for me in the ninth and tenth rounds.
Waldman: Cooper looked great on Sunday. Brissett's prep time to throw is slower than Sigmund Bloom's laptop processor during the Audible when he forgets to exit the 359 browser tabs he's created to accommodate his curiosity about the world. And when Brissett delivers vertical shots, he throws inaccurate rainbows that thoroughly destroy Cooper's vast fantasy potential.
Cummins: Is that why Bloom sounds like a robot on occasion? Go figure.
I'll end with Gerald Everett, who earned 66% of the offensive snaps in Week 1 and ran 23 routes, catching 3 passes for 54 yards and 1 touchdown. It’s important to note Donald Parham missed this game due to injury but it’s clear Everett was drafted too low all summer. Paired with Justin Herbert, I would select Everett over Irv Smith and David Njoku if drafting today.
Settle: Atlanta had a very interesting Week 1. Pitts and Drake London were expected to take over for this offense and that just was not the case on Sunday. The biggest saving grace was he was targeted seven times. This was only turned into 2 catches for 19 yards, but volume was not the issue here. With a third-round price tag, it was not a great start for the second-year tight end. There is a lot of time left, and the Falcons are likely to get into a pass-heavy late-game script. His numbers are bound to go up, and I would not move his ADP too much based on this Week 1 performance.
Coleman: Fantasy managers overthought Smith-Schuster this season. According to Footballguys ADP, he was drafted as WR31. That was far too low for a player that found himself as the #2 option in Kansas City. With all those vacated targets that opened up this off-season and Patrick Mahomes II at quarterback, barring any type of injury, he was always going to outperform his ADP. He has one of the safest floors in fantasy and has shown he can be a solid WR2 option in the NFL. He should have been drafted easily in the wide receiver 18-24 range.
Everett was a tight-end streamer's dream this off-season. The former Seattle Seahawk was an afterthought for many managers being drafted as a low-end TE2 this off-season in an offense where he was the third option and playing with All-Pro quarterback Justin Herbert. This offense last season utilized their tight end and made even Jared Cook's fantasy relevant some weeks. Now with Keenan Allen nursing a hamstring injury, Everett could be in line to be second on this team in targets with him out. Based on how other tight ends performed this weekend that was being drafted ahead of him, it looks like Everett should have been a low-end TE1 draft candidate.
McNamara: Patterson's offseason was always quizzical to me. They drafted Tyler Allgeier on day three, let Mike Davis walk in free agency, and signed Damien Williams in free agency. I'm a Williams fan, but I never saw him or Allgeier as a threat to Patterson's role as the lead back in the backfield. Patterson has never gotten the full receiving workload among the running backs in Atlanta, which is odd because of his background as a receiver, but that does not hold him back from top-five weeks. I think he is a top-10 player at the running back position.
Smith-Schuster played Week 1 with an aDOT of 10.3 while field-stretching teammate Marquez Valdes-Scantling had an aDOT of 5.5. This was very surprising as I thought Valdes-Scantling would be the deep threat in the offense and Smith-Schuster would play the slot. Smith-Schuster played a lot on the perimeter, which mirrored the preseason notes that came out of training camp. I'm bullish on Smith-Schuster's ability to lead the wide receiving corps, and he should be a top 20-25 option.
Pitts earned 63 of Atlanta's 75 offensive snaps in Week 1. He led the skill position players in snaps, but the usage is odd. Similarly, he ran 29 routes on 37 dropbacks, the second most routes on the team behind Drake London's 30. The sales pitch for Pitts has been "elite player in high volume opportunity" but the Atlanta offense was constructed like that in Week 1. I'm curious to see how Pitts is used in the coming weeks. He is among the top-six tight ends but may warrant a trade to pivot up the position to Mark Andrews or Travis Kelce if the price is right.
Waldman: Thanks, everyone! To all our readers, good luck this week.
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