Top 10: Week 10

Photo: Jon Durr, USA Today Sports

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Mission

The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between the fantasy and reality of football analysis. Football analysis—fantasy and reality—is often dramatized because there's a core belief that it's more important to entertain than to educate.

Why not both?

Whoever said it's better to be lucky than good did not understand the value of the process. Being good generates luck.

The goal of this feature is to give you actionable recommendations that will help you get results, but the fundamental mission is to get the process right. It's a rush to see the box score or highlights and claim you made the right calls. Without a sustainable process, success is ephemeral.

The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).

My specialty is film analysis. I've been scouting the techniques, concepts, and physical skills of offensive skill talent as my business for nearly 20 years.

The Top 10 will give you fantasy-oriented insights rooted in football analysis that has made the Rookie Scouting Portfolio one of the two most purchased independent draft guides among NFL scouts. This is what SMU's Director of Recruiting Alex Brown has told me based on his weekly visits with scouts during his tenure in Dallas as well as his stints at Rice and Houston.

Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece, that's available Monday nights during the season, is also a good source of information to begin your week as a fantasy GM. Bloom and I are not always going to agree on players—he errs more often toward players who flash elite athletic ability, and I err more toward players who are more technically skilled and assignment-sound.

Straight, No Chaser: Week 9 Cliff's Notes

This week, I'll be examining a lot of players who should be on your Waiver Wire Rolodex. Are you young enough to wonder what a Rolodex is? It's the precursor to your smartphone's contact list and after your fantasy drafts, it's wise to build a preliminary list of free agents who have the talent, depth chart spot, and/or offensive scheme to deliver fantasy value for your rosters if and when an opportunity arises.

The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the following points. I always provide bullet points for those lacking the time to see the tape examples and expanded commentary.

• The Myth of Punishment on Mobile QBs Perpetuated by the Media: A worn-out argument among fans, media, and even former quarterbacks, is the concern that mobile quarterbacks risk shorter careers because they run so much. I'll explain why their frame of reference is flawed.
• Justin Fields Is On His Way to Long-Term Fantasy Relevance: The Bears don't have the surrounding talent to support Fields' peak potential, but the adjustments of the scheme and the addition of Chase Claypool reveal that Fields is on his way to sustained fantasy value.
• Where the Myth May Fit: Malik Willis: The rookie has great physical tools, but his running style may actually play into the myth in ways most who get painted into this myth don't.
• Evenly Matched: Michael Carter and James Robinson Can Both Help You: The Jets have a duo that has a lot of similarities but also just enough differences to give them defined roles.
• Jeff Wilson Aborts Raheem Mostert's Fantasy Lift-Off: Wilson limits the ceiling of Mostert, but Mostert remains a viable option for rosters, if not starting lineups.
• Keep An Eye on Denzel Mims: There were a lot of near-hits for Mims against the Bills this weekend. His time may not be now, but it's coming in New York or elsewhere, and one of the reasons is revealed away from the ball.
• Joe Mixon Was Great, But Samaje Perine Got My Attention: Mixon had a career-best five touchdowns but Perine showed enough to make him a priority addition if Mixon falters or earns a rest.
• Just Get It Over With And Give Patrick Mahomes II the Gold Jacket: The gatekeepers in the media want the stats, wins, and championships. There's enough film that Mahomes' game doesn't need to jump through any more hips.
• NFL Moment of the Week: A reminder that football can be fun for everyone.
• Fresh Fish: A defensive unit that has difficulty against tight ends, a pair of toothless run defenses, and an offensive line that got its head coach fired today.

Let's turn this mother out...

1. The Myth of QB Punishment Perpetuated by the Media

While watching Justin Fields break Michael Vick's single-game rushing record for a quarterback against the Dolphins, Trent Green expressed concern about Fields' long-term prospects and that of all mobile quarterbacks in the NFL. The crux of his argument: top quarterbacks who are runners take too much punishment and wear out sooner than top quarterbacks who are seen as purely pocket players.

I have never agreed with this analysis, and I believe it's more myth than reality.

The strength of this mythical argument is the long and productive careers of pocket quarterbacks like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, Kurt Warner, and hundreds of others. However, the weight of this argument is based on a history where the NFL didn't maximize the strengths of a quarterback's mobility.

Many of the best candidates weren't allowed to play the position in the NFL: The league actively discouraged the use of quarterbacks who possessed high degrees of both passing and running skills for decades. Even when that discouragement wasn't rooted in racial discrimination, coaches saw athletic white passers and placed them in other positions. The body of historical evidence is weighted grossly in the favor of pocket players for artificial reasons.

Another issue is that we see the argument in a simplistic manner as an either/or proposition. There's an assumption of logic that if you're a mobile quarterback with dangerous rushing skills, you're not a pocket quarterback.

Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes II, Donovan McNabb, and John Elway were all pocket passers who could run. They all won from the pocket in difficult situations in addition to breaking the pocket to buy time or gain chunks of yardage. Jackson is one of the best pocket managers in the game.

Regardless of whether the quarterback is a good runner or a statue, what good passers have in common is the ability to win in the pocket. Whether it's Jackson or Brady, the best quarterbacks can maneuver efficiently from pressure while keeping their eyes downfield and maintaining an efficient throwing stance to let the ball go as soon as they anticipate an opening.

Many players are polar opposites as athletes, but their ability to win in this manner from the pocket is the common denominator.

The real difference that we should be monitoring is a mobile quarterback's running style. Jackson and Wilson take very few outside the pocket when running with the ball. The same could be said for Fran Tarkenton relative to the length of his career. Quickness and decision-making about when to use their legs make a difference.

During their first 6-7 years in the league, Wilson, Andrew Luck, and Cam Newton were the top three quarterbacks in the categories of facing pressure and taking hits. Luck and Newton dealt with injuries. Many of their injuries came from hits that they took as runners. They were powerful runners for their size who also had some quickness and speed but took hits based on their style.

Wilson rarely took hits as a runner. Fields rarely takes hits as a runner. Even Mahomes, whose underrated athletic ability goes unnoticed, rarely takes a hit with all of his flights.

Justin Fields foils a twist-turned-bull rush on third down to move the chains #DaBears

Good pocket managers often bait the rush within 1-2 steps to maximize separation with the first move away. pic.twitter.com/P7YBPsVQun

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 6, 2022

Fields slips Chubb on third down #DaBears pic.twitter.com/fmWliDcuMb

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 6, 2022

Justin Fields outruns near half the defense for a field-flipping score on third down. #DaBears pic.twitter.com/zWruWE64gL

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 6, 2022

Poor Justin Fields, all this wear and tear will shorten his career . #DaBears pic.twitter.com/eKtMHXc7GU

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 6, 2022

At the same time, Brady, Manning, Luck, Newton, Marino, Carson Palmer, and many others who stood tough in the pocket took a lot of hits where they were in static stances — often from angles they couldn't prepare for that bent them in unnatural positions. Because many of these passers were never runners, they could rehab and remain closer to their peak form than a player who leans more on his legs than his arm.

This is where QBs take the most punishment #DaBears pic.twitter.com/jYOkNBvYvN

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 6, 2022

Still, injuries from the pocket are plentiful and claim a lot of careers of talented players before they can emerge. Steve McNair had a long career. He took as much, if not more, punishment from the pocket that lead to significant injuries than he did as a runner — and he was a punishing runner all too often. The same was true of Steve Young.

While I understand Green's apprehension when he shares this oft-stated nugget as a former quarterback, Green was not playing the position in the same way as the players I've mentioned. He was a tortoise relative to these passers. He lost his chance to lead the Greatest Show on Turf due to a pocket injury. He also saw his opportunities derailed for stretches in Kansas City after tucking and running.

Green was not only in an NFL environment that didn't protect the quarterback, but he was also too slow to avoid a lot of hits that the mobile passers of the modern era can. Green's argument is rooted in his first-person accounts of playing the game at the end of an era that didn't protect his position nearly as much as it is protected now. It was also during a time when many organizations actively discouraged this style of quarterback based on its past biases.

Fields' record-breaking rushing performance, as you'll see below, came on runs where contact was minimal and with low intensity. This is a common thing you'll see in his film or that of Jackson, Wilson, or Kyler Murray. It's about the combination of running style and athletic ability more than simply being a runner or not a runner.

Fantasy Advice: Change the argument in your head. Some pocket quarterbacks are dynamic runners. If they win by outrunning opponents and making them miss in efficient ways without taking a lot of punishment, and they can win from the pocket with efficient maneuvering, you shouldn't shy away from them as long-term prospects.

There will always be players who fit this description who get hurt during a play where they were running, but they are the exception that proves the rule. More often, they'll get hurt while standing in the pocket. Even if there was merit to the argument, the likely difference in career length, if one could adjust for the historical bias of the data, wouldn't be significant enough to change how you select players as a fantasy GM.

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