Top 10: Week 10

Matt Waldman's Top 10: Week 10 Matt Waldman Published 11/08/2022

Mission

The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between the fantasy and reality of football analysis. Football analysis—fantasy and reality—is often dramatized because there's a core belief that it's more important to entertain than to educate.

Why not both?

Whoever said it's better to be lucky than good did not understand the value of the process. Being good generates luck.

The goal of this feature is to give you actionable recommendations that will help you get results, but the fundamental mission is to get the process right. It's a rush to see the box score or highlights and claim you made the right calls. Without a sustainable process, success is ephemeral.

The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).

My specialty is film analysis. I've been scouting the techniques, concepts, and physical skills of offensive skill talent as my business for nearly 20 years.

The Top 10 will give you fantasy-oriented insights rooted in football analysis that has made the Rookie Scouting Portfolio one of the two most purchased independent draft guides among NFL scouts. This is what SMU's Director of Recruiting Alex Brown has told me based on his weekly visits with scouts during his tenure in Dallas as well as his stints at Rice and Houston.

Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece, that's available Monday nights during the season, is also a good source of information to begin your week as a fantasy GM. Bloom and I are not always going to agree on players—he errs more often toward players who flash elite athletic ability, and I err more toward players who are more technically skilled and assignment-sound.

Straight, No Chaser: Week 9 Cliff's Notes

This week, I'll be examining a lot of players who should be on your Waiver Wire Rolodex. Are you young enough to wonder what a Rolodex is? It's the precursor to your smartphone's contact list and after your fantasy drafts, it's wise to build a preliminary list of free agents who have the talent, depth chart spot, and/or offensive scheme to deliver fantasy value for your rosters if and when an opportunity arises.

The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the following points. I always provide bullet points for those lacking the time to see the tape examples and expanded commentary.

  • The Myth of Punishment on Mobile QBs Perpetuated by the Media: A worn-out argument among fans, media, and even former quarterbacks, is the concern that mobile quarterbacks risk shorter careers because they run so much. I'll explain why their frame of reference is flawed.
  • Justin Fields Is On His Way to Long-Term Fantasy Relevance: The Bears don't have the surrounding talent to support Fields' peak potential, but the adjustments of the scheme and the addition of Chase Claypool reveal that Fields is on his way to sustained fantasy value.
  • Where the Myth May Fit: Malik Willis: The rookie has great physical tools, but his running style may actually play into the myth in ways most who get painted into this myth don't.
  • Evenly Matched: Michael Carter and James Robinson Can Both Help You: The Jets have a duo that has a lot of similarities but also just enough differences to give them defined roles.
  • Jeff Wilson Aborts Raheem Mostert's Fantasy Lift-Off: Wilson limits the ceiling of Mostert, but Mostert remains a viable option for rosters, if not starting lineups.
  • Keep An Eye on Denzel Mims: There were a lot of near-hits for Mims against the Bills this weekend. His time may not be now, but it's coming in New York or elsewhere, and one of the reasons is revealed away from the ball.
  • Joe Mixon Was Great, But Samaje Perine Got My Attention: Mixon had a career-best five touchdowns but Perine showed enough to make him a priority addition if Mixon falters or earns a rest.
  • Just Get It Over With And Give Patrick Mahomes II the Gold Jacket: The gatekeepers in the media want the stats, wins, and championships. There's enough film that Mahomes' game doesn't need to jump through any more hips.
  • NFL Moment of the Week: A reminder that football can be fun for everyone.
  • Fresh Fish: A defensive unit that has difficulty against tight ends, a pair of toothless run defenses, and an offensive line that got its head coach fired today.

Let's turn this mother out...

1. The Myth of QB Punishment Perpetuated by the Media

While watching Justin Fields break Michael Vick's single-game rushing record for a quarterback against the Dolphins, Trent Green expressed concern about Fields' long-term prospects and that of all mobile quarterbacks in the NFL. The crux of his argument: top quarterbacks who are runners take too much punishment and wear out sooner than top quarterbacks who are seen as purely pocket players.

I have never agreed with this analysis, and I believe it's more myth than reality.

The strength of this mythical argument is the long and productive careers of pocket quarterbacks like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, Kurt Warner, and hundreds of others. However, the weight of this argument is based on a history where the NFL didn't maximize the strengths of a quarterback's mobility.

Many of the best candidates weren't allowed to play the position in the NFL: The league actively discouraged the use of quarterbacks who possessed high degrees of both passing and running skills for decades. Even when that discouragement wasn't rooted in racial discrimination, coaches saw athletic white passers and placed them in other positions. The body of historical evidence is weighted grossly in the favor of pocket players for artificial reasons.

Another issue is that we see the argument in a simplistic manner as an either/or proposition. There's an assumption of logic that if you're a mobile quarterback with dangerous rushing skills, you're not a pocket quarterback.

Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes II, Donovan McNabb, and John Elway were all pocket passers who could run. They all won from the pocket in difficult situations in addition to breaking the pocket to buy time or gain chunks of yardage. Jackson is one of the best pocket managers in the game.

Regardless of whether the quarterback is a good runner or a statue, what good passers have in common is the ability to win in the pocket. Whether it's Jackson or Brady, the best quarterbacks can maneuver efficiently from pressure while keeping their eyes downfield and maintaining an efficient throwing stance to let the ball go as soon as they anticipate an opening.

Many players are polar opposites as athletes, but their ability to win in this manner from the pocket is the common denominator.

The real difference that we should be monitoring is a mobile quarterback's running style. Jackson and Wilson take very few outside the pocket when running with the ball. The same could be said for Fran Tarkenton relative to the length of his career. Quickness and decision-making about when to use their legs make a difference.

During their first 6-7 years in the league, Wilson, Andrew Luck, and Cam Newton were the top three quarterbacks in the categories of facing pressure and taking hits. Luck and Newton dealt with injuries. Many of their injuries came from hits that they took as runners. They were powerful runners for their size who also had some quickness and speed but took hits based on their style.

Wilson rarely took hits as a runner. Fields rarely takes hits as a runner. Even Mahomes, whose underrated athletic ability goes unnoticed, rarely takes a hit with all of his flights.

At the same time, Brady, Manning, Luck, Newton, Marino, Carson Palmer, and many others who stood tough in the pocket took a lot of hits where they were in static stances — often from angles they couldn't prepare for that bent them in unnatural positions. Because many of these passers were never runners, they could rehab and remain closer to their peak form than a player who leans more on his legs than his arm.

Still, injuries from the pocket are plentiful and claim a lot of careers of talented players before they can emerge. Steve McNair had a long career. He took as much, if not more, punishment from the pocket that lead to significant injuries than he did as a runner — and he was a punishing runner all too often. The same was true of Steve Young.

While I understand Green's apprehension when he shares this oft-stated nugget as a former quarterback, Green was not playing the position in the same way as the players I've mentioned. He was a tortoise relative to these passers. He lost his chance to lead the Greatest Show on Turf due to a pocket injury. He also saw his opportunities derailed for stretches in Kansas City after tucking and running.

Green was not only in an NFL environment that didn't protect the quarterback, but he was also too slow to avoid a lot of hits that the mobile passers of the modern era can. Green's argument is rooted in his first-person accounts of playing the game at the end of an era that didn't protect his position nearly as much as it is protected now. It was also during a time when many organizations actively discouraged this style of quarterback based on its past biases.

Fields' record-breaking rushing performance, as you'll see below, came on runs where contact was minimal and with low intensity. This is a common thing you'll see in his film or that of Jackson, Wilson, or Kyler Murray. It's about the combination of running style and athletic ability more than simply being a runner or not a runner.

Fantasy Advice: Change the argument in your head. Some pocket quarterbacks are dynamic runners. If they win by outrunning opponents and making them miss in efficient ways without taking a lot of punishment, and they can win from the pocket with efficient maneuvering, you shouldn't shy away from them as long-term prospects.

There will always be players who fit this description who get hurt during a play where they were running, but they are the exception that proves the rule. More often, they'll get hurt while standing in the pocket. Even if there was merit to the argument, the likely difference in career length, if one could adjust for the historical bias of the data, wouldn't be significant enough to change how you select players as a fantasy GM.

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2. Fields Is on the Path to Fantasy Relevance

ESPN's Matt Bowen sums up the difference with the Fields'-led Bears' offense of 2022:

Here are examples of what Bowen is talking about. It begins with designed runs. It's one thing to encourage Fields to run when pressure compromises a pocket. There's an entirely different impact on an opposing defense when the Bears use Fields as an intentional ground weapon as part of the weekly game plan.

It lays the foundation for a passing game that can leverage Fields' legs as a threat that manipulates linebackers and safeties.

Because the Bears' design runs for Fields' it adds gravitas to the potential of him pulling and keeping the ball on any designed run to the backs. This forces opponents to play all 11 offensive players on every play, which isn't the case when they face a statue at the position.

The result of this effort makes the ground game effective enough to run the ball a lot. The Bears lead the NFL in rushing percentage. The volume and quality of their ground game make play-action even more effective than the quants' base belief in it regardless of the ground games' effectiveness. While quants will argue there's not a significant statistical difference, there's too much variation with alignments, coverage responsibilities, and the thinking/reaction of individual defenders to get a great statistical read on this point.

Regardless, it makes sense that when a team runs the ball well, defenders with responsibilities to defend it will ensure they are honoring the potential of a running play before switching to pass coverage responsibilities. This leads to successful passing plays.

Let's not forget that Fields also possesses the base passing skills of a franchise quarterback.

As the offense continues growing, so should he.

Fantasy Advice: Fields has been the fantasy QB1 for the past five weeks, generating half of his fantasy value as a runner during this span. Chase Claypool is not a legitimate primary receiver in the NFL, but his size, speed, and ability as a runner and blocker help this offense that lacks all three skills from any single player who was starting in this offense.

Claypool opens the intermediate windows for Cole Kmet and lets Equanimeous St. Brown stay in that comfort zone rather than being the main vertical threat.

It wouldn't surprise me if Fields pulls away from the rest of the quarterbacks as the top fantasy option at his position as we head down the stretch.

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3. Tennessee: Where the QB Myth May Fit

If there's a running style for a quarterback that concerns me, it's the violent cutting and stop-start movements of a slashing runner who invites hits with cutbacks into traffic combined with a pocket style that leans less on efficiency and more on dynamic moves where the player's legs move wide from his athletic base.

That's an accurate description of Malik Willis' movement style. He moves this way often enough that, combined with his developmental skills as a passing-game decision-maker and leaky pockets in Tennessee, I have lingering skepticism about him staying healthy through the 16-20 games needed for a pro passer's acclimation and growth in the league.

This isn't one of the violent hits I've seen Willis take, but the movement and decision-making to go inside invite more violence than other mobile quarterbacks.

Fortunately, Willis has shown the willingness to throw the ball away when he has exhausted his options. If he can continue to do this, which he often failed to do at Liberty, and his receivers can win the accurate targets he's delivering, there's hope.

Derrick Henry, for the same reason that defenses have to play Fields in Chicago and it benefits David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert must love it.

Fantasy Advice: Willis may be a boom-bust bye-week starter at this point, but he's a fantasy booster for Henry's upside while he remains in the Titans' lineup or whenever he gets a chance as the season unfolds.

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4. Evenly Matched: Carter and Robinson Are Jets Who Can Help you

My analysis on Travis Etienne and James Robinson coexisting and fantasy starters didn't pan out thanks to injury and Robinson's trade, but we saw glimpses of the rationale. In New York, we see a greater likelihood of a 1-2 punch with Micheal Carter, who is quick enough to the edge but not as explosive as Etienne.

Carter is also a more combative and physical runner than Etienne.


Carter and Robinson have more in common with each other than Robinson and Etienne. Both have versatility with the range of run-blocking plays that allow the Jets to interchange them based on role. Carter is the better route runner, so he may have the edge with passing-down use, especially during two-minute drills.

However, the interchangeability of the players does open the door for the Jets to use a hot-hand approach if the defense can help keep the game scripts tight. As we saw against the Bills, Robinson was impactful on the field despite still learning the system.

Fantasy Advice: Carter has the early lead as the fantasy back with the Jets to use. However, Robinson has hidden value as he gains comfort with the screen game and overall passing system over the next 3-4 weeks. He also has potential as a close-out runner.

Considering the schedule, I'd favor Carter as a solid RB2 in fantasy lineups and Robinson as a mid-range or low-end flex (RB3 or RB4) with more upside as the weeks pass. Carter's upside may reach RB1 territory if Robinson gets hurt, but we'll see New York target another veteran runner if they continue to contend.

This could be less true if Carter gets hurt because Ty Johnson has enough experience to hold down that role. It means Carter has a higher floor, but Robinson has a slightly higher upside.

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5. Lift-Off Aborted in Miami? Wilson's Impact on Mostert

Mostert scored against the Bears on Sunday on a one-yard run. He also had multiple runs that moved the chains with the potential to earn more if one thing unfolded differently than it did.

This was the good news for Mostert's fantasy GMs. The bad: Jeff Wilson is Mike McDaniel's pet, and for good reason. The national broadcast crew learned this week during its interview with McDaniel that Kyle Shanahan would charge McDaniel with the task of watching players with late-round or UDFA grades with the goal of unearthing a gem.

One of McDaniel's first projects was Wilson, a scat back at North Texas whose tape was strong on passing-down skills but not as proven between the tackles. Fast-forward a few years, and we've seen Wilson climb the 49ers' depth chart as a reliable every-down reserve.

It's no wonder that the Christian McCaffrey deal triggered McDaniel to trade Chase Edmonds in a package deal for Bradley Chubb and then make an offer for Wilson as a net upgrade based on his versatility and experience in McDaniel's system. Run, catch, and block, Wilson does it all.

Wilson had one more opportunity for the ball than Mostert on Sunday. Each had nine rushing attempts. Mostert had two targets and no receptions. Wilson earned three targets and two receptions.

Fantasy Advice: I'd bet on this remaining a split. After all, Mostert is also a McDaniel back. Still, Wilson is a system upgrade to Edmonds, if not a talent upgrade. If you can land Wilson as part of a package deal to shore up a flex spot in your lineup or even as a usable RB2 if the rest of your lineup is strong, do it.

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6. Keep An Eye On the Jets' Mims

I know, I know...I am persistent in my analysis that Denzel Mims is a worthwhile prospect who only needs an expanded opportunity. For the past two weeks, Mims has earned a limited opportunity while Corey Davis rehabilitates a knee injury.

Two weeks ago, Mims delivered an impressive 63-yard play after bouncing off a hard shot from a Patriots' safety after the catch. This week, Mims earned multiple targets, but he and Zach Wilson were consistently inches away from a consistent and productive connection.

There were still positives to glean from his frustrating fantasy day. Wilson didn't stop going to Mims, targeting him on a pivotal 3rd and 5 possession in the red zone.

From a fantasy perspective, Mims was a lot closer to starter production than the box score may appear. From a football perspective, scouts with a decent eye will note how close the connections were and this will tip the scales toward a positive evaluation when examining the body of his work.

That body of work also includes run blocking. Mims has excelled in this area during the past few weeks, including a block at the line of scrimmage that helped spring Breece Hall's breakaway run against the Broncos. We saw a similar quality of work on Sunday against the Bills.

Mims had every reason to lose confidence and respond with lapses in work ethic and intensity on and off the field after a regime change, illness, and the Jets not trading him. Still, he's performing like a professional should and making a case that if the Jets don't give him a starting opportunity, someone else may pay to give him a shot next year.

Fantasy Advice: Mims is a luxury stash or a calculated bye-week gamble on him and Wilson connecting on big plays that were near-misses last week. Long-term, he's a player I'm stashing in deeper outlets with at least 25-30 roster spots.

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7. Mixon Was Great, But Perine Earned My Attention

You can find the Joe Mixon highlights from his five-touchdown day anywhere. What caught my eye was the potential viability of Samaje Perine if Mixon falters or the Bengals earn the opportunity to rest him for a playoff run. While the latter is unlikely in a tight AFC North, it's worth knowing which backup running backs and offensive lines might be gelling as the fantasy season unfolds.

Perine is a bruiser with nifty feet and enough acceleration to deliver volume production.

Although the Panthers were dominated in a way most didn't expect, there is good work that one can separate from the trench work, including passing-down work that will earn Perine the lead role ahead of a flashier athlete like Chris Evans.

Fantasy Advice: If you have Mixon and your team is on a path to a first-round bye in the playoffs, Perine should be atop your watchlist of options to add to your bench for your playoff run. If you're weak at running back and need to consider preemptive additions to sit on your bench until you can act decisively on a player who legitimately earns an opportunity, Perine is a worthwhile gamble.

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8. Just Get It Over With And Give Mahomes the Gold Jacket

I think Patrick Mahomes II will be one of the best 3-4 quarterbacks to ever play when it's said and done. On a pound-for-pound basis with the film that's available, Mahomes is close right now, if not already there. A shortstop with a cannon arm, an eye for detail with preparation and performance, and a performer's confidence and intuition, he's part Brett Favre and part Ozzie Smith but with a dash of Peyton Manning and Tom Brady as a worker and field general.

No one made these plays like Mahomes before he came along. In 10 years, we anticipate it will become commonplace. I understand the logic. Not sure I'm sold on it because it's not just the physical act of throwing with platforms that resemble a shortstop turning a double play but the ability to see the field, anticipate the passing lanes, and deliver with placement.

Easier said than done.

These would be career-defining throws for many good NFL quarterbacks. These are just another week from Mahomes. Then there's his skill on the ground, which we rarely have to see. Although not an elite straight-line speedster or a quarterback strongman on the level of Cam Newton, when Mahomes runs, he's a nasty ball carrier to handle.

Funny enough, Mahomes' trainer replied to this late-night tweet, nothing Mahomes is fast and strong. It was my fault for not qualifying it as clearly as I could, but I think he figured out where I was coming from. Some players don't need as many years of stats to prove to the gatekeepers of Canton that they merit the Hall.

Because they are reporters and commentators, some will disagree with this notion. Most won't. Appreciate what you're seeing because we only get 1-2 of his ability every 12-15 years, at best.

Fantasy Advice: As Adam Harstad mentions, there are some players you decide will retire on your dynasty squads. Mahomes is one of ours. He should be one of yours. Unless you think you can get Justin Fields or Jalen Hurts and another good starter in exchange for Mahomes, keep rolling with the safest fantasy quarterback of the past five years.

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9. NFL Moment of the Week

This was my favorite moment of the week.

Fantasy Advice: Sometimes, you need a reminder of the childlike joy that's rooted in sports. I'm glad the NFL has figured out a reasonable balance between celebration and good sportsmanship without taking away the fun.

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10. Fresh Fish

Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for the weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd love nothing more than for our players to face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.

In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," I provide my weekly shortlist of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up.

Special of the Week: The Colts' offensive line

Indianapolis' unit gave up nine sacks of Sam Ehlinger, who I studied last week and noted good pocket management skills. This unit has fallen apart almost as fast as the management infrastructure. It makes the Colts a great opponent for potential streaming.

Miami's defensive unit against tight ends in the red zone has been a long-term weakness that has transcended multiple coaching regimes. Cole Kmet scored his first two touchdowns of the year against the Dolphins this week.

Last but not least, the Carolina Panthers run defense was abysmal against the Bengals.

Thanks again for all of your feedback on this column. Good luck next week, and may your bold call come true.

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Photos provided by Imagn Images
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