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It is C.J. Stroud and Joshua Dobbs' world; we are just living in it. How does their high level of play affect the dynasty landscape? Footballguys has you covered on movement within dynasty rankings heading into Week 11.
Question: On a scale of 1 (least likely) to 10 (most likely), rate the likelihood Joshua Dobbs is the long-term answer at quarterback for the Vikings. Under what scenario would you look to acquire him in a Superflex league?
Craig Lakins: I rate the likelihood of Joshua Dobbs being the long-term answer at quarterback for the Vikings as a 3. Don't get me wrong. I love the Dobbs story. I've followed him closely since his time at the University of Tennessee. He's playing his best football right now, and I'm so glad he has the chance to showcase his talent, but this is comparable to the NBA's "Linsanity." It's a moment in the sun for someone who has worked hard and earned it, but I don't see it being sustainable long-term. There's a reason he never caught on in Pittsburgh or Tennessee and was traded by the Cardinals after beginning the season 1-8. While it seems inevitable he will return to the Vikings as a backup, it's too farfetched to see him receiving a long-term deal to be their future quarterback.
For the duration of the 2023 season, he does hold solid value. Dobbs could be the perfect wave to ride into the postseason for quarterback-needy teams on the cusp of a playoff berth. In a Superflex league, he becomes even more valuable. Starting a second quarterback that can net you twenty points weekly is a formula for success.
Andy Hicks: Right now, Dobbs would have to rate a 1 or 2 as the long-term answer for Minnesota. By the end of the season, he has a chance to move this up to a 5. How does Dobbs play when Justin Jefferson returns? Can he get the Vikings to a playoff spot? Minnesota has the inside track to at least a wildcard spot. If Detroit falters, maybe more. There is nothing more attractive to an organization than a winner. Dobbs may have more appeal than 36-year-old Kirk Cousins, returning from a torn Achilles. Dobbs should be considerably cheaper. But he has only two end-of-season starts for the Titans, eight for Arizona and two for Minnesota. As a passer, he is of average use. With five rushing touchdowns this season, Dobbs becomes much more attractive.
In Superflex, if I need a quarterback, Dobbs should score well, but how much will someone want for him? Is it going to be the difference between winning and losing? Possible, but not likely. If the asking price is reasonable, grab him.
Will Grant: A four right now. Dobbs has played in two games for the Vikings and has been fun to watch, but labeling him their long-term solution at quarterback will require a larger sample size. You can reasonably argue that this is the best team that Dobbs has played on during his five-year career, but the fact that he never caught on anywhere else should give you pause. His last few games in Arizona were pretty bad, and two good games for the Vikings don't erase that. If Justin Jefferson returns, Dobbs continues to play at a high level, and the Vikings make the playoffs and look like a team that could compete against the better teams in the league, you can start the "Dobbs as the long-term solution" conversation. For now, he's a wait-and-see.
In a redraft super-flex league, I currently use Dobbs as my #2 option since I've lost all my other possibilities to injury/benching. In dynasty, if he were on my roster before the trade to Minnesota, I would be okay with starting him. But I'm not trading anyone I care about for him. He's essentially a lottery ticket that could turn into something valuable by the end of the season or just as easily turn into trash.
Ryan Weisse: I'd rate this a five because it feels like a 50/50 coin toss. Fantasy managers could make some parallels between Dobbs and Geno Smith, but Smith was far more established with the Seahawks before he took over. Dobbs has played just two games in Minnesota. While they've been exciting wins, the Vikings would likely want to see more before turning over the keys to an offense featuring Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. If Dobbs keeps playing strong, why not give a 28-year-old quarterback a chance after he wins over the fan base? However, he is also a mid-season waiver claim. Dobbs is on a one-year deal, and there could be other suitors. With the NFL Draft and pending free agency between now and Week 1, 2024, it is far too hard to predict that Dobbs will be considered more than an eight-game rental.
Dan Hindery: Five - In making the case two weeks ago that Jaren Hall had a good chance to exceed expectations, my argument was based on believing the Vikings situation was tailor-made for quarterback success. Minnesota has one of the best pass-blocking offensive lines in the league, a pair of elite young receivers, one of the top tight ends, and a fantastic offensive scheme. While Hall was quickly injured and replaced by Dobbs, it has become even more apparent that this is one of the best spots in the league to play quarterback. The Vikings are similar to the 49ers in that the scheme and surrounding talent can make a quarterback look better than he is. Thus, we should take Dobbs' early success with a grain of salt. We have seen Dobbs in other offenses and know he is not an elite talent. That being said, if he can run the Vikings offense for the next two months almost as well as Kirk Cousins did, it may make sense for Minnesota to choose Dobbs to be the starter moving forward. The Vikings have already paid T.J. Hockenson and will likely give Justin Jefferson a record-breaking contract soon. Star left tackle Christian Darrisaw only has one year left on his rookie deal. He, too, is due for an extension worth $25M per year or more. Paying the young offensive talent is infinitely more challenging to do while paying Cousins in the neighborhood of $40M. All things considered, I am at least open to the possibility that Dobbs could end up being the Vikings' choice in free agency next spring as a lower-priced alternative to Cousins.
Jeff Bell: As Ryan and Dan mentioned, five feels right. Two complicating factors face the Vikings. First, the pending free agency of Kirk Cousins paired with the Vikings, allowing him to reach that point, could find him looking elsewhere. Second, with the team's current run and the low-hanging nature of NFC playoff qualification, the team will find the top quarterbacks off the board in the draft before hitting the clock. If Dobbs continues his current streak and has the team competitive in a playoff game, he presents a familiar, likely lower-priced option. The prudent plan is to pair Dobbs with a rookie like University of Washington's Michael Penix Jr., getting passable play from Dobbs while the rookie develops.
A reasonable deal for Dobbs is likely a late second-round pick. Teams looking to acquire him should be contending teams that may have lost a quarterback like Kirk Cousins or Deshaun Watson. There is too much risk for a team slotted into an early draft pick to acquire him, and those teams should be looking at capitalizing on short-term value.
Deshaun Watson, Cleveland
Ryan Weisse: It's probably time for Watson to take a tumble in most rankings. The high point of his career in Cleveland was easily last week's come-from-behind win over Baltimore, and he promptly ended up on injured reserve after the game. When you factor in his performance in the previous two seasons and recent injury history, he feels like a liability, not an asset.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville
Andy Hicks: Last year, we saw promising signs that Lawrence was developing to be the player drafted number one overall. 2023 has been a disappointment. Were it not for the dearth of elite fantasy prospects, he would be moving way down dynasty rankings. He still takes a significant tumble, as his numbers are appalling.
Dak Prescott, Dallas
Will Grant: The Cowboys can't beat any playoff-quality teams, but that doesn't stop Prescott from having massive fantasy games. Over the last three weeks, Prescott has 1078 yards passing, one rushing, and 11 passing touchdowns against just two interceptions. As the rushing game continues to struggle, Dallas seems content to put it all on Prescott to win. That's great from a fantasy perspective, and their tendency to run the score against weaker opponents like the Giants is a massive boost to your fantasy team. The Cowboys seem committed to Prescott, and it's a safe bet he will continue to line up for them for a few more seasons. You can feel comfortable starting him every week as your fantasy quarterback.
Dan Hindery: Prescott finished the 2022 season as the QB17 in fantasy PPG. After six weeks of the 2023 season, he was the QB22 in fantasy PPG. Writing him off as a mid-level QB2 in dynasty was becoming easy. Then, Prescott caught fire. Over the last four weeks, he has been the overall QB1. In fact, it has not even been close. Prescott has averaged 30.3 fantasy PPG since Week 6, a full 5.2 PPG better than the QB2 (Jalen Hurts). Prescott moves back up to QB12 in my dynasty rankings.
Sam Howell, Washington
Andy Hicks: Howell has played himself into starting fantasy quarterback territory with three consecutive 300-yard passing games and eight touchdowns. Unless he wins, it is hard to imagine the team not looking to upgrade at quarterback with a new head coach in 2024. Howell will be playing himself into carrying an offense somewhere, if not with Washington. Howell deserves an upgrade, but his 2024 prospects remain cloudy.
Bryce Young, Carolina
Will Grant: Rookie quarterbacks tend to fetch big rewards in dynasty leagues, but Bryce Young is a guy who is firmly in the 'hold' category for the near future. He's had just three passing touchdowns total in the last four games and has looked terrible in his previous two appearances against Indianapolis and Chicago. Although he had 41 rushing yards against the Colts, he also tossed three picks, and against a weak Chicago defense, he managed just 185 passing yards with no touchdowns. Chicago also owns Carolina's 1st round draft pick next season, meaning the chances of giving Young any help will depend on attracting free agents. It's too early to cut bait on Young, but he belongs on your fantasy bench for the foreseeable future.
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay
Andy Hicks: Mayfield has done everything asked of him. It should be enough to see him have a starting job in 2024. If not with Tampa, somewhere. In dynasty, that is more surety than at least one-third of the league. He is a good fantasy backup, but nothing more.
Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas
Craig Lakins: We can be honest about Garoppolo's value coming into this season. He was a high-end QB3 - mainly due to his attachment to Davante Adams - but he didn't have very far to fall in dynasty rankings. The Las Vegas Raiders brought the 32-year-old Garoppolo in as the successor to Derek Carr after deciding to move on from their long-time starter. His tenure as the Raiders' signal-caller lasted only six games before he was benched in favor of fourth-round rookie Aidan O-Connell. He missed a couple of games due to injury, but with a 7-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio in the games he started, it was clear that he's no longer a viable NFL quarterback.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Cleveland
Jeff Bell: Thompson-Robinson was thrown to the wolves in his one starting opportunity. The Ravens have allowed the least amount of fantasy points to quarterbacks, just 11.9 per game. After one game, the team decided to pull back and start PJ Walker until Deshaun Watson returned from injury. Now, Watson is out for the season, and Thompson-Robinson gets the first shot at replacing him. Thompson-Robinson's game should translate well to fantasy football. He topped 600 rushing yards in his last two seasons at UCLA, which should translate, with four rushes for 24 yards against Baltimore. This dual-threat ability will allow him to enter the conversation as a Superflex QB2 down the stretch.
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