Dynasty Trade Value Chart: Rookie Draft Edition

Photo: Jayne Kamin-Oncea, USA Today Sports

Look for May's Dynasty Trade Value Chart article analyzing how the draft impacted veterans tomorrow. Today’s Dynasty Trade Value Chart is focused solely on rookies and how to value this class as we head into rookie drafts. We will update the value of rookie players and explain how we arrived at those values. However, the real goal here is to give you an analytical framework to help you create your own rookie values and rankings. We have created a Google Sheet with base values determined by position-adjusted draft capital and encourage you to make a copy of it, make your own adjustments, and use the values you come up with to help you navigate through your upcoming rookie drafts:

Rookie Pick Worksheet (File>Make a Copy will allow you to edit the values).

Before we give our own valuations and reasoning and break things down into tiers (with a focus on Superflex drafts), let’s first give a quick overview of the process we recommend you employ to reach the best possible rookie valuations based on your own prospect evaluations.

Draft Capital

Our method leans heavily on draft capital as the starting point for any rookie valuation. We start with a model-based approach that looks back at the past decade of drafts and how much each player drafted actually ended up being worth to come up with base values for players based solely on their position and where they were drafted. For example, knowing nothing other than the fact that a running back was drafted 8th overall, our model would value that player at 45. The belief here is that the NFL decision-makers have more information, more on the line, and more experience evaluating prospects than we do. They are good enough at their jobs to at least give us a very strong starting point for our own valuation process.

In the Google Sheet linked above, these model-based starting values can be found in the columns “Draft Cap. PPR” for normal one quarterback leagues and “Draft Cap. SF” for Superflex leagues.

Making Adjustments

While there is a belief in using draft capital as a starting point, there is still a lot of room to improve on these naive player valuations by applying our own knowledge of the players skills, the situation they are drafted into, and our own level of personal belief in the prospect.

1. Skillset Adjustment

The "Skillset" column you will see in the Google Sheet allows you to adjust for how fantasy-friendly a player’s skills are. The most obvious adjustments here will be for the following player characteristics:

A. Quarterback rushing ability
Lamar Jackson was a late-first-round pick, but even at the time of the draft, we valued him more highly than his draft capital would have suggested because his special running ability gave him a ton of fantasy upside. Justin Fields is another recent example. In this class, we are going to give Anthony Richardson a solid bump based on how much fantasy rushing upside he brings to the table.

B. Tight ends who excel as pass catchers
We give “Move TEs” a positive adjustment. For fantasy purposes, we only care how much offensive production we get from our tight ends. There are no fantasy points for good blocking. We are clearly evaluating on a different scale than NFL evaluators, so it makes sense for us to make some common sense adjustments to the initial draft capital-based valuations based on whether the player’s skillset is fantasy friendly or not. Dalton Kincaid is basically a big slot receiver, we are going to give him a positive boost based on his skill set.

C. Potential high-volume PPR targets
A player with field-stretching speed impacts the NFL game in ways that are not reflected in fantasy points, and those guys are drafted higher as a result. On the other hand, potential high-volume slot targets who are not speedsters (think Cooper Kupp, Keenan Allen, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, etc.) often have more fantasy upside than their draft capital would suggest. We give these guys a boost in our rankings.

2. Situational Adjustments

We do not want to go too overboard here, but situation does matter. Imagine a universe where the Bengals traded up to #52, drafted Zach Charbonnet, and promptly cut Joe Mixon. Clearly, Charbonnet would be worth more in that hypothetical than he is now based on being drafted to back up and complement Ken Walker III. We have to deduct some value points from Charbonnet based on being drafted into a situation that limits his realistic fantasy upside.

3. Other

We have one last column for any final adjustments that don’t fit neatly into either the skillset or situation buckets. Is your favorite draft analyst especially high on a player? Give him a 10% boost or whatever you feel comfortable with. We all have our guys, and there is nothing wrong with putting your finger on the scales a little bit to move a guy up some. There is value in doing so in a more calculated manner and not getting too far out over your skis in terms of making wild adjustments, however. Personally, I try to keep adjustments in this category under 20%, especially in the early rounds of rookie drafts. In the later rounds, it makes sense to adjust more aggressively.

Tier 1

1.01 Bijan Robinson

Our draft capital-based model is going to love any running back drafted 8th overall. Robinson has a fantasy-friendly skillset but much of that is already baked into things based on his massive draft capital, so we are not going to make any adjustments. In terms of situation, the Falcons' running backs scored the 11th-most fantasy points last season, ranking 3rd in rushing fantasy points (298.7) but just 29th in receiving fantasy points (92.3). The big question will be how much a change in personnel with the addition of Robinson (and hopefully improved quarterback play) adds to those receiving totals. That is the part of the equation that will likely determine if Robinson is only a Top 10 running back or a guy who will push for overall RB1 on a regular basis.

1.02 Anthony Richardson

Our model has a roughly eight-point value gap between a quarterback drafted 1st overall (42) and a quarterback drafted 4th overall (34). The big question facing us as we head into rookie drafts is how much of a skillset boost we give to Richardson based on his rushing ability. The lean here is to be aggressive in boosting his valuation. My initial read is to give him a 20% value boost based on his rushing upside. Last season, in 18 games (playoffs included), Jalen Hurts averaged a whopping 11.2 fantasy points per game as a runner. Hurts’ offensive coordinator Shane Steichen is now Richardson’s head coach in Indianapolis, so there is reason to give a small situational boost, as well. Steichen has had a ton of success using his quarterback as the go-to running option in short-yardage situations and down around the goal line. We should expect that to continue in Indianapolis. Richardson at 1.02 is a riskier option than Bryce Young. It is absolutely reasonable to go with the perceived safer option, and we would not try to talk anyone out of Young. However, my lean is Richardson, and I am willing to take on the added risk in exchange for the outsized fantasy upside in my own Superflex drafts where I own the 1.02.

1.03 Bryce Young

Despite the size concerns, Young feels like the safest option in this year’s rookie drafts by a decent margin. He has elite intangibles and multiple years of top production at Alabama. He is mobile enough to put up at least modest rushing numbers but not big or athletic enough to adjust positively for the skillset. I am going to give him a slight negative for situation. Carolina had to trade away its top wide receiver and will not have a first-round pick next season. The weapons are not terrible but are below average, and there’s no immediate path to a major improvement.

1.04 Jahmyr Gibbs

My pre-draft valuation and ranking of Gibbs were based on an assumption he would be drafted in the 25-to-40 range. The surprising selection at 12th overall requires a major recalibration. My draft-capital model loves any running back drafted this highly. We are dealing with small sample sizes, but you have to go all the way back to Trent Richardson in 2012 to find a running back drafted this highly who was a bust for fantasy purposes. A couple of backs were slight disappointments (Melvin Gordon and Leonard Fournette), but even those guys had some nice fantasy seasons. The most common outcome for running backs drafted this highly was multiple huge fantasy seasons (Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, etc.). There is no reason not to start with a big draft-capital-based number on Gibbs.

In terms of skillset, he has major PPR upside as a pass catcher but could miss out on those super valuable goal-line snaps. These two factors roughly even out, so I’m not making any skill set adjustments.

As far as situation, the Lions running backs scored the most fantasy points last season with 499.4. Detroit was 8th in receiving fantasy points and 2nd in rushing fantasy points from backs. This is a huge pie and could get even bigger if Gibbs proves to be as dynamic as some think catching the ball out of the backfield. It is probably not enough to make anyone prefer Gibbs over Robinson, but it is at least worth noting that the Lions running backs scored 27.7% more fantasy points (PPR) than the Falcons running backs. If Gibbs takes any of the goal line work from David Montgomery, the sky is the limit.

In terms of overall dynasty running back rankings, I am instantly putting Robinson and Gibbs as the dynasty RB1 and RB2 over Jonathan Taylor, Breece Hall, and company.

1.05 C.J. Stroud

Stroud is a relatively straightforward valuation. He comes with very strong draft capital. There is a case to be made for making a slight negative adjustment for skillset if you think he will run much less than average but he is decently athletic. We can knock him just slightly for situation, given the Texans’ lack of weapons, but we should not go too overboard here. Drafting a quarterback in your rookie draft is a long-term investment, and the Texans should have enough draft capital going forward to continue to surround Stroud with weapons. They traded away their own 2024 first-rounder but still have Cleveland’s top pick.

Tier 2