Navigating Crowded RB Rooms: Houston Texans

The NFL season is fast approaching, and your redraft fantasy drafts are right around the corner. As training camps get underway, there are many question marks about NFL running back rooms. With the emergence of running back by committees, the days of being able to draft multiple bellcow running backs in fantasy leagues look like they are over. With that in mind, in this series of articles, we will look at crowded running back rooms and how you should be attacking each this season. Next up is the Houston Texans.

Offensive Scheme

The Texans are going through yet another rebuild, and this time they may have actually gotten their coaching hires correct. New head coach DeMeco Ryans prioritized hiring San Francisco 49ers passing game coordinator Bobby Slowik, who Ryans worked with in San Francisco since 2017, ironically starting as a defensive assistant before moving over to the offensive side of the ball. Slowik takes over an offense that was one of the league’s worst the last two seasons. He will look to implement the offense from the Kyle Shanahan and Gary Kubiak tree. He also has a background working with Sean McVay, Mike McDaniel, and Matt LaFleur during their time in Washington. If you haven’t listened to the new Playcallers podcast detailing those coaches, I highly recommend it.

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Under Bobby Slowik's implementation of the Shanahan West Coast system, the Texans' offense will likely focus on zone blocking in the run game and utilize outside zone rushing concepts. This scheme will benefit running backs with attributes such as explosiveness, pass-catching abilities, and long speed. The rushing attack will play a significant role in controlling the offensive tempo, particularly in the early stages of rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud's career, as they aim to protect him and establish an offensive identity. Expect the Texans to prioritize their ground game as a key element of their offensive strategy, along with heavy play action. This Texans offense could be a sleeping giant in regards to fantasy production out of the running back position.

Left tackle Laremy Tunsil is a standout player on the offensive line. His skill and experience can serve as a pillar of support for the rushing attack. On the other side of the line, right tackle Tytus Howard brings promise and potential to the team. If he continues to develop, he can become a force to reckon with on the right side, adding more versatility to the running game. Keep an eye on second-year player Kenyon Green. With a year of experience under his belt, Green has the potential to make significant strides in 2023. His growth can add depth and stability to the offensive line, bolstering the rushing attack.

The Texans made some notable off-season moves to address their offensive line concerns. The trade for Shaq Mason could prove to be a savvy move. While he had a down season last year, there's optimism that he can rediscover his form and be a valuable asset in 2023. If Mason can regain his previous level of performance, he will undoubtedly contribute to the team's rushing success.

Additionally, the Texans drafted Juice Scruggs, adding new talent to the mix. Scruggs might need some time to acclimate to the NFL, but his potential could pay dividends in the long run. His presence further strengthens the offensive line's depth, giving the team more options to execute the rushing scheme effectively.

Dameon Pierce

• Contract Status: Year 2 - 4 yr(s) / $4,475,432
• Free Agent: 2026/UFA
• Age: 23
• Redraft ADP: 5th Round RB20
• Dynasty ADP: 8th Round RB20

Pierce's performance in the 2022 season makes him a fascinating case study for this offense. Throughout the year, he stood out as the lone bright spot in the team's performance. According to data from Pro-Football-Reference, before his unfortunate injury in Week 13 against the Dallas Cowboys, Pierce ranked seventh in rushing yards (939), 16th in scrimmage yards (1,104), second in broken tackles (27), and fourth in rushing yards after contact (506). Notably, during that same period, he ranked as RB17 in PPR formats, surpassing expectations and considerably outperforming his ADP (Average Draft Position).

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Looking ahead to the 2023 season, Pierce seems to be the perfect fit for this new offensive system. The team appears confident in relying on him to carry the ball as much as needed. Based on current projections from Footballguys, he's expected to receive around 230 carries throughout the year. If he can maintain his health, reaching the 1,000-yard mark seems well within his reach. Moreover, if Pierce can increase his touchdown production to around six for the season, he has a chance to achieve high-end RB2 status in fantasy football. This potential makes him an appealing option for fantasy managers seeking a reliable running back with upside.

However, there is a notable obstacle that Pierce needs to overcome - his performance on third downs. According to Pro Football Focus, his pass-blocking grade from last season was 32.3, ranking him among the worst pass blockers among NFL starters. This could be a significant concern, especially with a rookie quarterback at the helm who they are trying to protect. Reports from training camp suggest that he's been working on improving in this area, which is promising, but it remains a critical aspect to watch during the season.

If Pierce can successfully develop his pass-blocking skills and contribute on third downs, it will significantly elevate his potential as an all-around back and unlock a higher ceiling for his fantasy production. On the other hand, if he struggles in this area and is primarily limited to early-down work, it could impact his fantasy value, limiting him to just an early-down role within the offense.

• Redraft Meter: ADP Value
• Dynasty Meter: Sell/Hold Depending on Value

Recent Dynasty Trades Involving Pierce (12 Team SF PPR):

• Dameon Pierce for Terry McLaurin
• Justin Fields/Dameon Pierce/George Pickens for Ken Walker III/Chris Godwin
• Dameon Pierce for Rachaad White/D.J. Chark Jr

Devin Singletary

• Contract Status: Year 1 - 1 yr(s) / $2,750,000
• Free Agent: 2024/UFA
• Age: 25
• Redraft ADP: 11th Round RB46
• Dynasty ADP: 15th Round RB51

One of the initial offensive moves made by the new regime in Houston was bringing in running back Devin Singletary during free agency. Last season, Singletary worked in a committee with rookie James Cook while playing for the Bills and finished as RB23 overall. Although it was a somewhat disappointing season for him, Singletary has demonstrated consistency throughout his career, averaging just shy of 1,000 yards from scrimmage per year.

One area where Singletary excels is his pass-blocking ability. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he ranked among the top 10 pass-blocking backs in the NFL last season. This skill is crucial for the Texans, who aim to protect their young quarterback, CJ Stroud. Therefore, it's highly likely that Singletary could earn a pivotal role on third downs in this offense, making him a valuable asset in pass protection.

Furthermore, with the Texans' new system expected to incorporate a committee backfield approach, we could see a more balanced distribution of carries than in previous seasons. This could result in split playing time, around a 60/40 split in usage. As a result, Singletary's role in the offense could be significant, particularly if he continues to perform well in pass protection and demonstrates reliability as an all-around back.

Singletary has proven to be a capable receiver when targeted, consistently receiving no less than 41 targets in a season. In the Texans' new offensive system, which emphasizes involving running backs in the passing game, Singletary could carve out a valuable role. His ability to contribute as a receiver enhances his overall value and potential impact on the team.

Singletary presents an intriguing option in redraft leagues as a "zero running back" target. He has the potential to see a rise in value, particularly if an injury befalls Dameon Pierce or if he secures the coveted third-down role in the offense.

In dynasty leagues, Singletary could be a smart target in buy-low scenarios or as a throw-in on a deal. The Texans' new regime is likely to value running backs similarly to teams across the league, where the running game plays a vital role in the offensive scheme, but they aren't willing to spend up for an elite back. This could elevate Singletary's worth, especially if he shows promise and a strong performance during the season. Singletary could potentially secure a place on the Texans' roster beyond the 2023 season if he impresses under this new regime. This possibility further enhances his long-term value as a player worth considering in dynasty leagues.

Considering these factors, Singletary emerges as a prime candidate for "buying low" due to his potential upside, his role in the passing game, and the strategic emphasis that the Texans are likely to place on running backs.

• Redraft Meter: Zero RB Target
• Dynasty Meter: Buy Low

Recent Dynasty Trades Involving Singletary (12 Team SF PPR):

• Devin Singletary/2024 2nd/2024 4th for Alec Pierce/2025 4th
• Devin Singletary for Jeff Wilson Jr.

Mike Boone

• Contract Status: Year 1 - 2 yr(s) / $3,100,000
• Free Agent: 2025/UFA
• Age: 28
• Redraft ADP: Undrafted
• Dynasty ADP: Undrafted

Boone's addition to the offense appears to be primarily for depth purposes. Throughout his career, he has not been heavily involved in the running or passing game. His highest carry count in a season is just 49, and he has rarely been targeted in the receiving game, with only one season exceeding four targets (15 targets in 2022).

On the positive side, Boone has shown efficiency as a runner, averaging an impressive 5.2 yards per carry with 99 career rushing attempts. However, his most productive season was back in 2019, when he recorded 49 carries for a total of 273 yards and three touchdowns. His opportunities have significantly decreased in the subsequent three seasons, with only 39 carries combined.

Boone has had varied roles on special teams. During his time with the Vikings, he played a crucial role on special teams, logging 455 snaps in two seasons. However, with the Broncos, his involvement dropped to just 150 special teams snaps over the last two seasons.

Considering these factors, it's reasonable to expect that Boone may have a tough time securing a spot on the Texans' roster by the start of the season. While he could potentially contribute on special teams, the competition for roster spots may prove challenging. Therefore, it's likely that he could be part of the cutdown to the final 53-man roster as the season approaches.

• Redraft Meter: Waiver Wire Watch
• Dynasty Meter: Do Not Draft

Dare Ogunbowale

• Contract Status: Year 2 - 2 yr(s) / $3,000,000
• Free Agent: 2024/UFA
• Age: 29
• Redraft ADP: Undrafted
• Dynasty ADP: Undrafted

As we approach the end of August, it's likely that Dare Ogunbowale and Mike Boone will be competing for a roster spot in the Texans' backfield. Ogunbowale's performance in the 2022 season saw him record 42 carries for 123 yards, a touchdown, and 20 receptions for 104 yards. Notably, he had his most productive stretch during the season's final four weeks when rookie Dameon Pierce was dealing with an ankle injury.

In Week 18 against the Colts, Ogunbowale had a season-high 11 rushing attempts, resulting in 33 rushing yards, and he also caught five passes for five yards. His versatility as a pass-catching back could be appealing to the coaching staff. Moreover, Ogunbowale's value extends to special teams, where he has showcased his skills as a better player than Boone. This aspect of his game could give him an edge in the competition for a roster spot. As far as fantasy, neither holds very much relevance without an injury ahead of them.

• Redraft Meter: Waiver Wire Watch
• Dynasty Meter: Do Not Draft

Xazavian Valladay

• Contract Status: Year 1 - 3 yr(s) / $2,725,000
• Free Agent: 2026/RFA
• Age: 25
• Redraft ADP: Undrafted
• Dynasty ADP: Undrafted

Xazavian Valladay is undoubtedly an exciting taxi squad stash in the NFL, and some see him as a potential breakout player with shades of Arian Foster's success story. Despite going undrafted out of Arizona State, Valladay possesses talents that exceed his draft capital. Beginning his college career at Wyoming, Valladay showcased his skills as a standout running back, earning All-Conference honors in 2019 and 2020 and second-team recognition in 2021.

Valladay's potential was further evident when he transferred to Arizona State. During his senior season, he ran for an impressive 1,192 yards and scored 16 touchdowns, ranking him 10th nationally. While he may not have been selected in the draft, Valladay's college track record and on-field production speak volumes about his abilities.

Valladay possesses all the desirable traits for this offensive scheme. His skill set makes him a complete package, combining downhill running ability with enough speed to break away from defenders at the second level. His proficiency in pass-catching adds a valuable dimension to his game, making him a versatile threat in the aerial attack. Valladay's standout attributes lie in his elusiveness and his explosiveness at the line of scrimmage, allowing him to navigate tight spaces and make defenders miss.

Considering his perfect fit in the offensive system and the potential opportunities ahead, Valladay is indeed worth stashing in dynasty leagues. If you have the luxury of deep benches, trying to acquire him during the preseason could prove to be the right move. If he manages to secure a spot on the practice squad or even make strides to surpass players like Boone and Ogunbowale on the depth chart, he could deliver immediate value to your dynasty roster.

• Redraft Meter: Waiver Wire Watch
• Dynasty Meter: Taxi Squad Stash

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