Roundtable Week 4: Week 3 vs. Weeks 1-2

Photo: Andres Leiva, USA Today Sports

Welcome to Week 4 of the 2023 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.

This week's roundtable features these four topics:

• Notable Fantasy Starters at QB
• Emerging Player Candidates
• Week 3 vs. Weeks 1-2 (see below)
• The Footballguys' Subscriber Contest

Let's roll.

Week 3 vs. Weeks 1-2

Matt Waldman: Let's discuss fantasy football narratives from the past two weeks:

• Name a narrative from Week 3 that you believe dispelled Week 1-2's performances.
• Name a narrative from Week 3 that you believe confirmed Week 1-2's performances.
• Name a narrative that was consistent during Weeks 1-3 that you believe will be dispelled eventually this year.
• Name a narrative that was consistent during Weeks 1-3 that you believe won't change.

Go.

Daniel Harms: The Texans aren’t the same old Texans. They had every excuse to lose that game to the Jaguars. Down four starting offensive linemen, unable to run the ball, injuries all over the defense, and a pissed-off Jags offense looking to get right. C.J. Stroud is the real deal and the offense the Texans run can score points. They have real weapons and have bought into DeMeco Ryans coaching style and defensive philosophy. The Texans will be a tough out every week after they dispelled the early September narrative that they will be an easy-out

Desmond Ridder will hold the Falcons offense back, and he confirmed it once again last week. Regardless of what Arthur Smith does with the offensive game plan, there will be games that the ‘run the ball’ mantra fails, and the Falcons need to throw to win. I am a Ridder supporter; all offseason, the Falcons talked about how Ridder’s mind was going to take the offense forward, and while he’s been getting to the right places, he sprays too many throws. The Lions' secondary was an opportunity to show that he could do that, and the Falcons only produced six points.

Josh Jacobs is a bust of a fantasy asset for the past three weeks, but I believe that will change. He’s faced a team that knows the Raiders well and two good defenses to start the season. He’s a highly talented rusher with 14 targets on the year. Jacobs isn’t going to be running into brick walls and kept out of the end zone for long.

The Ravens' offense fooled many of us with the preseason talk of airing the ball out and having Lamar unlocked by Todd Monken. We have seen a few instances of Lamar taking steps as a passer, but the injuries along the offense have taken their toll. Bateman doesn’t look like the prospect he was at Minnesota, Odell Beckham is dealing with his own injuries, and they lost J.K. Dobbins to another season-ending injury. Even Dobbins' replacements are dealing with injuries. The Ravens offense could be like this the rest of the year.

Jason Wood: The Rams started off the season with a stunning 30-13 victory over division rival Seattle, leaving many to wonder if the shocking youth movement in LA was another case of McVay playing chess while the rest of the league played checkers. But since then, we've seen the team fall to 1-2, and the offense and defense have been exposed as the also-rans we viewed them to be over the summer. Matthew Stafford has thrown just 2 touchdowns on 126 attempts (1.6% rate), and Kyren Williams is now down to 3.6 yards per rush with a mere eight receptions on 19 targets. I'm not believing the early-season narrative on the Rams' success.

On the other hand, the Dolphins' offense is special and will be one of the most bountiful sources of fantasy value this season. Tua Taovailoa's ADP was discounted all summer because of his well-known concussion history, but many of us knew he was an elite talent if he could stay healthy. He was the No. 4 fantasy quarterback through two weeks, and then Miami went out and crushed the Broncos in Week 3 with a historic 70-20 victory that set a new NFL record for yards. They became the first team in history to score five passing touchdowns and five rushing touchdowns in the same game. Head coach Mike McDaniel's offense is the new standard bearer, and let's remember this is a team without a healthy Jaylen Waddle -- arguably one of the 10-best receivers in the NFL -- and Jeff Wilson, who was viewed as the likely starting tailback two months ago.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are 1-2 and rank toward the bottom offensively (21st) and defensively (23rd) through three weeks, but I still believe they'll win the AFC South and be an AFC contender by the season's end. The core of last year's playoff team is intact, and they've added a legitimate alpha receiver in Calvin Ridley. The coaching staff is proven, and the schedule looks great, with matchups against the Falcons, Colts, Saints (without Derek Carr), Steelers, Titans, Buccaneers, and Panthers remaining.

I agree with Daniel, we grossly overestimated the Baltimore Ravens' offensive evolution under new play-caller Todd Monken. I fell prey to the narrative, too. Monken spent the last few years as the OC at the University of Georgia, and his NFL return had us excited about what modernizing the moribund Ravens scheme would do for Lamar Jackson and his skill players.

Unfortunately, the 2023 Ravens look exactly like the old Ravens. To be clear, that's not necessarily a disaster. When Lamar Jackson was healthy, the incumbent offense was good enough to make Baltimore a playoff contender.

But our hopes that Monken would unlock Jackson's passing, create better pace and mismatches, and provide Jackson a path to return to MVP form, looks to have been too much to ask for. The problem ultimately may be Jackson. I'm not sure he's a good enough processor to implement a more creative system that's not driven by his rushing abilities.