Underdog Pick 'Em Week 4

Photo: Charles LeClaire, USA Today Sports

Underdog's Fantasy Pick ‘Em is a fun way to test our powers of prediction against the market. The two keys to success are picking the best players to target and taking advantage of correlations where we can to increase our odds. You play Pick ‘Em by simply choosing “Higher” or “Lower” on at least two player props. If you choose successfully, this is the payout structure:

• Two picks = 3X
• Three picks = 6X
• Four picks = 10X
• Five picks = 20X

In this weekly article, we will list our favorite plays of the week and the reasoning behind them.

Week 3 Review

Overall Picks (5-7 on the week, 21-17 on the season)

Overall Units (-3, +1 on the season)

• Lamar Jackson was the free square and Zay Flowers went way higher than his receptions total (4.0) with eight catches. But Jahan Dotson (3.5) came in under with just two catches and Mark Andrews (4.5) came in 0.5 under.
• Pats-Jets Under. Zach Wilson (29.5) cost us a win on this one by passing 36 times. The other two hit. Mac Jones (32.5) went under with just 29 attempts and Breece Hall (57.5 total yards) went well under with just 27 yards.
• The long shot Texans-Jags over did not come through. The Texans did their part and C.J. Stroud (14.45 fantasy points) easily went higher. On the other side, it wasn't Trevor Lawrence's day.

Lessons learned: The Jets-Pats unders were a good play but didn't quite hit. The Jaguars offense has bigger problems than I thought and it probably comes down to the offensive line. All the skill position talent in the world doesn't matter if the line is struggling.

Running Back Receiving Overs 20X

Some of the most attractive numbers on the Week 4 slate are running back receiving totals. In this entry, we are going with our five favorite running back pass catchers of the weekend.

Bijan Robinson

Higher than 25.5 Receiving Yards

• Robinson has seen his role increase each week. He played 63% of the snaps in Week 1, 72% in Week 2, and 81% in Week 3. His 81% snap share last week was sixth-highest amongst all running backs. Despite the presence and strong play of Tyler Allgeier, Robinson has already emerged as a true workhorse running back who rarely leaves the field.

Bijan Robinson pass-game role been strong to open NFL career.

* 80 routes on 107 Desmond Ridder dropbacks (75%)
* Slot or wide on 46 of his 145 snaps (32%)
* Leads all RBs in team target share (19%)
* On pace for 79 catches, 578 receiving yards

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 25, 2023

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• Robinson has proven to be a dangerous mismatch as a pass catcher. He leads all NFL running backs with 14 receptions, 102 receiving yards, and 123 yards after the catch.
• Robinson has topped 25.5 receiving yards in each of his three career games.

Jerome Ford

Higher than 12.5 Receiving Yards

• We have a one week sample size when trying to project the Browns backfield after Nick Chubb's injury. While Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt each saw exactly three targets, it is worth nothing that Ford ran 22 routes while Hunt ran only three.
• There is also an “eye test” element here. Ford looks comfortable running routes. This is a spot where we should be betting on his ability to earn more work as a pass catcher given what he has put on tape.

.@Browns @JeromeFord 2TD's in his first NFL start. Did we know he could go out wide and double move a fast LBer? #DawgPound #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/lsgenivfyj

— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) September 25, 2023

Raheem Mostert

Higher than 14.5 Receiving Yards

• While the Dolphins explosion last week was largely due to the rushing success of Mostert and De'Veon Achane, Mostert also had a major impact through the air with seven catches for 60 yards.
• The Bills are allowing an average of 41.3 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs.
• The last time these two teams met, Dolphins backs racked up 58 receiving yards on nine targets.

James Cook

Higher than 19.5 Receiving Yards

• Cook's receiving usage has been solid so far this season. He has 10 catches on 13 targets for 67 yards. He has narrowly missed a couple big gains on wheel routes.

Miles Sanders

Higher than 16.5 Receiving Yards

• Sanders leads all NFL running backs with 20 targets and is currently on pace to see 113 targets this season. He was targeted nine times last week against the Seahawks in what was the Panthers best offensive showing of the season.

Miles Sanders: 9 receiving targets in week 3

FIRST among all RBs 👀 pic.twitter.com/lvCNZCkWfG

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) September 25, 2023

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• The Panthers-Vikings game (46.5 total) has sneaky shootout potential.