This is one of the hardest articles I've ever had to write. As a lifelong Chicago Bears fan and an uncompromising Justin Fields apologist, few things would make me happier than seeing Fields bring glory to our beleaguered franchise. He's a virtuoso on the field. He's a beacon of leadership. He's humble. He possesses all of the intangible traits you want to see in a quarterback. My heart desperately wants him to be the guy. But years of inconsistency are impossible to ignore. And Caleb Williams might be the answer.
Holding the coveted number one overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Bears have a tough decision. Do they stand firm, forging ahead with Justin Fields at the helm? Or do they pivot, draft Caleb Williams, and reset the rookie contract window? Or do they trade back and select another quarterback in the first round? Teams have succeeded with Patrick Mahomes II, Josh Allen, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, and Daunte Culpepper. Perhaps Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, Michael Penix Jr., or Bo Nix could be this year's steal. This decision will have ramifications for years to come.
It's not an overstatement to say this decision may be the most significant in Bears' history.
Emotionally, my allegiance is with Justin Fields. The team could trade back for a massive haul and surround him with talent, and that's what many fans want to see. However, I wanted to challenge myself by looking through this situation as objectively as possible. I pored over the last 30 years of first-round quarterback data, and the numbers made it clear.
The Bears need to draft Caleb Williams.
For a franchise as long-standing as the Bears, some bewildering statistics are associated with them. They have never selected the number one overall pick in the Draft. They have also never rostered a quarterback to throw for 4,000 yards or 30 touchdowns in a season. Last year was the first time in Bears' history that they went into a season with a new general manager, head coach, and Week 1 starting quarterback. They have found intermittent success throughout the franchise's lifetime but never under center.
Is it possible that Caleb Williams could be the Chosen One? The quarterback the Bears have been seeking over 100 years? Yes. Is it possible that he busts? Could he be outshined by another quarterback in this year's class? Also yes.
But the data tells us that Caleb Williams is much more likely to be a successful long-term quarterback than anyone else in this year's Draft.
"Success" is an admittedly hard-to-define term.
For the sake of this exercise, I picked a handful of arbitrary thresholds to determine a quarterback's success.
- 4,000-plus passing yards in a season
- 30-plus passing touchdowns in a season
- 80-plus career starts
- Winning a playoff game
- Making a Pro Bowl
The first two benchmarks appear haphazard but are certainly meaningful to Bears fans. The third benchmark roughly translates to five years as a starter. Since winning is the ultimate goal of every team, the fourth standard feels important. And while the Pro Bowl can be scoffed at as nothing more than a popularity contest, it still indicates a player who is at or near the top of the league for a given season.
Over the last 30 years, 20 quarterbacks have been selected with the number one pick.
Here's how they fared in each of these categories.
| Year | Name | NFL Team | College | 4000-yard Season | 30-TD Season | 80 Starts | Playoff Win | Pro Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Bryce Young | Panthers | Alabama | N/A | ||||
| 2021 | Trevor Lawrence | Jaguars | Clemson | X | N/A | X | X | |
| 2020 | Joe Burrow | Bengals | Louisiana State | X | X | N/A | X | X |
| 2019 | Kyler Murray | Cardinals | Oklahoma | N/A | X | |||
| 2018 | Baker Mayfield | Browns | Oklahoma | X | X | X | ||
| 2016 | Jared Goff | Rams | California | X | X | X | X | X |
| 2015 | Jameis Winston | Buccaneers | Florida State | X | X | X | X | |
| 2012 | Andrew Luck | Colts | Standford | X | X | X | X | X |
| 2011 | Cam Newton | Panthers | Auburn | X | X | X | X | X |
| 2010 | Sam Bradford | Rams | Oklahoma | X | ||||
| 2009 | Matthew Stafford | Lions | Georgia | X | X | X | X | X |
| 2007 | JaMarcus Russell | Raiders | Louisiana State | |||||
| 2005 | Alex Smith | 49ers | Utah | X | X | X | X | |
| 2004 | Eli Manning | Chargers | Mississippi | X | X | X | X | X |
| 2003 | Carson Palmer | Bengals | USC | X | X | X | X | X |
| 2002 | David Carr | Texans | Fresno State | |||||
| 2001 | Michael Vick | Falcons | Virginia Tech | X | X | X | ||
| 1999 | Tim Couch | Browns | Kentucky | |||||
| 1998 | Peyton Manning | Colts | Tennessee | X | X | X | X | X |
| 1993 | Drew Bledsoe | Patriots | Washington State | X | X | X | X | |
| TOTAL | 70% | 45% | 81.25% | 65% | 70% |
Fifty percent of eligible quarterbacks checked every single box. Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, and Kyler Murray, each early in their careers, have yet to do so but will likely follow suit.
The only quarterbacks to bust over the last 30 years by these standards (not check a single box) are JaMarcus Russell, David Carr, and Tim Couch.
It's too early to label Bryce Young anything definitive after his rookie season.
But overall, the quarterbacks drafted number one overall check these boxes at an astonishing rate.
- 4,000+ yards: 70%
- 30+ TDs: 45%
- 80+ starts: 81%
- Playoff win: 65%
- Pro Bowl: 70%
When we analyze other quarterbacks drafted in the first round over the last 30 years, we're left with a much larger sample: 63 players.
And the hit rates for these thresholds plummet among other first-round quarterbacks.
- 4,000+ yards: 25%
- 30+ TDs: 24%
- 80+ starts: 35%
- Playoff win: 38%
- Pro Bowl: 33%
Of the 63 quarterbacks drafted between picks 2 and 32, only Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes II, Ryan Tannehill, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Daunte Culpepper checked every box. Justin Fields hasn't checked a single box.Comparing that 12.7% hit rate to the 50% hit rate of number one overall selections tells us that teams are about four times as likely to hit on a franchise quarterback with the first pick.
Looking at many of these names, I noticed there were quite a few top-10 picks. Maybe that would corroborate the idea that the Bears should trade back, retain a top-10 pick, and take whoever fell to them, be it Maye, Daniels, Penix, or Nix.
I tightened the thresholds to picks 2-5 and 2-10 to compare hit rates. And while the success rates did improve, they still weren't close to the success we saw from the number one overall picks. So then I looked at quarterbacks in the top half of the first round as well. Regardless of where I drew the split, the first overall picks fared significantly better than the field.
| Statistical Threshold | Pick 1 | Picks 2-5 | Picks 2-10 | Picks 2-16 | Picks 2-32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4,000+ yards | 70.0% | 26.1% | 29.4% | 29.5% | 25.4% |
| 30+ TDs | 45.0% | 21.7% | 26.5% | 27.3% | 23.8% |
| 80+ starts | 81.3% | 38.9% | 40.7% | 42.4% | 34.7% |
| Playoff win | 65.0% | 34.8% | 54.2% | 38.6% | 38.1% |
| Pro Bowl | 70.0% | 43.5% | 62.5% | 48.2% | 33.3% |
Trading back and taking whoever falls may sound great in theory. Just as recently as last year, C.J. Stroud appeared to be a better pick than Bryce Young. Despite Baker Mayfield's decent career, Josh Allen was the best quarterback from 2018's Draft. Donovan McNabb, selected second overall in 1999, had a much better career than first-overall pick Tim Couch.
But overall, quarterbacks who selected number one are much more likely to find success in the NFL.
Here is the likelihood of a first-overall pick hitting these marks over another top-five pick.
- 4,000+ yards: 2.7x
- 30+ TDs: 2.0x
- 80+ starts: 2.1x
- Playoff win: 1.9x
- Pro Bowl: 1.6x
This chart breaks down the hit rates of quarterbacks who went first overall picks, top-five picks, top-ten picks, top-16 picks, and all other first-round picks. And as you can see, quarterbacks selected number one overall are overwhelmingly the safest bets.
It's human nature to remember the outliers.
JaMarcus Russell, David Carr, and Tim Couch are notoriously ridiculed decades after they were drafted. Never mind that they are the 15% floor outcome for a player drafted first overall. We remember them.
Similarly, people love to point to Patrick Mahomes II and Aaron Rodgers as reasons to take a chance on quarterbacks later in the first round. But the reality is that a quarterback drafted outside of first overall is much more likely to be a Blaine Gabbert or a Paxton Lynch than they are the next Mahomes or Rodgers.
And while Caleb Williams is the unanimous pick to go first overall this year, he's in even more rarified air as a guy who has been the consensus QB1 of his class for back-to-back seasons.
Going back 40 years, that leaves us with a very short list of NFL quarterbacks:
- Trevor Lawrence
- Jameis Winston
- Andrew Luck
- Eli Manning
- Peyton Manning
- John Elway
If you look at what those quarterbacks did throughout their rookie contracts, they would immediately be heralded as the best quarterbacks in Bears' history. The term generational gets thrown around too frequently, and I'm not ready to label Williams that. Williams does have a few warts as a prospect. But he's about as safe as they come.
Once again, it's important to remember that the thresholds selected are arbitrary marks. There's no perfect way to predict success from college to the pros. There are more and better ways to define success. But this forced me to look at the situation through an objective lens and remove the emotion I (and most Bears fans) feel for Justin Fields. The Justin Fields Era will be etched in history with an electric highlight reel, but the Bears will likely have to trade him this offseason. His leadership, while admirable, could cause a split locker room and a toxic environment for a rookie quarterback to develop in.
There's no guarantee in the NFL Draft.
But if the Bears want a quarterback who will throw for 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns, make a Pro Bowl, win a playoff game, and start for the next five years, they will likely get that guy by handing Roger Goodell a card with "1, Williams, Caleb, QB, USC" written on it this April.
For more information on Caleb Williams and the rest of the incoming rookie class, check out our 2024 Rookie Draft Guide.
