Welcome back to DFS First Look. Whether you've been grinding DFS for years or are just giving it a shot for the first time this season, the goal is the same: find the best values, attack the right matchups, and build lineups that can win.
We'll analyze the opening lines and team totals to pinpoint teams in the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, focus on determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust the most. Our goal is to arm you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations so you can start honing in on the best plays before the week unfolds.
Matchup Overview
I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which shows how much each team is favored on the X-axis and the implied team total on the Y-axis. Let's go clockwise, starting in the upper-left quadrant, and highlight teams with interesting angles in Week 3.
Upper Left: Teams in this quadrant are underdogs but still projected to score above the slate's average, making them strong candidates for potential shootouts. This week, the only underdog projected to score well is the Cowboys. Dallas hung 40 points last week and now faces a Bears defense fresh off giving up 52. I added the dotted lines to the data viz last season for two reasons: first, they make it easy to see who plays who at a glance, and second, they help visualize game totals. The higher the dotted line, the higher the total. This week, the gap between the highest total (Dallas–Chicago) and every other game is substantial. This will be the game everyone targets.
Upper Right: Teams in this quadrant are favored and projected to score above average, making them prime options for both cash games and GPPs. Positive game scripts here often set up well for running backs. The Buccaneers looked sharp Monday night against an elite Texans defense and could look even better against a Jets defense that has allowed 30+ points in back-to-back weeks. Bucky Irving was vultured by Rachaad White on the game-winning touchdown, but his usage has been fantastic. Fire him up against the Jets. Atlanta's offense also impressed in primetime against a loaded Vikings defense and now gets a much easier matchup with the Panthers. Bijan Robinson is pricey but should be one of the most popular plays on the slate.
Bottom Right: These teams are favored but expected to score below average. Running backs can still be viable due to positive game scripts, but the passing games are risky with the low totals. No teams fall into this category this week, in part because the slate as a whole is projected to be low scoring.
Bottom Left: Teams in this quadrant are underdogs and projected to score below average. Limit exposure here to only players you have strong conviction about.
FanDuel
Quarterback
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Injury Replacements
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The pricing gap between the top quarterbacks on the slate (Justin Herbert, Caleb Williams, Dak Prescott, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray) and the backups thrust into starting roles isn't big enough to make players like Carson Wentz or Jake Browning stand out. That said, both rank in the Top 5 of early PPD projections.
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Keep an eye on Jayden Daniels' health. If he's out, Marcus Mariota is minimum-priced and brings some rushing upside.
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Bears–Cowboys
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It will be interesting to see where percent rostered projections land for Caleb Williams and Dak Prescott. I like to hand-build a few lineups early in the week without factoring in popularity, and I kept gravitating to this game for both quarterbacks and wide receivers.
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Dak Prescott is in a fantastic spot. The Bears will be without top cornerback Jaylon Johnson, who was lost for the season in Week 2. After he exited, Jared Goff completed all 15 of his passes for 243 yards. Starting cornerback Kyler Gordon may also miss another week with a hamstring injury.
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On the other side, Dallas just gave up 450 passing yards to Russell Wilson. Williams may take sacks and turn it over too much, but he can sling it and is averaging 42.5 rushing yards per game this season.
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Running Back
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Jordan Mason: With Aaron Jones Sr. heading to injured reserve after suffering a hamstring injury, Mason is expected to handle the bulk of the backfield touches, according to Kevin Seifert of ESPN. His top backup is Zavier Scott, a third-year player out of Maine who has zero career touches. The Bengals gave up 176 total yards and two touchdowns to the Jaguars' running backs last week. Mason should have a huge workload in a great matchup.
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Jonathan Taylor: The Titans' run defense looks solid, but it did allow 149 yards and two touchdowns on the ground last week to the Rams. Taylor has looked tremendous through the first two weeks. I also like to lean heavily on history in divisional matchups. The last time these teams squared off was Week 16 of 2024, when Taylor carried the ball 29 times for 218 yards and three touchdowns.