After weeks and months of player workouts and meetings with teams and measurements galore and exponentially more speculation about who will land where and how this season's prospects stack up against one another, the 2025 NFL Draft in Green Bay is just a couple of days away.
All that pre-draft prognostication has, of course, included no shortage of fantasy football forecasting, as pundits not only point out the potential strengths and weaknesses but also try to find the draft destinations that are most favorable to a prospect's fantasy value in both the short and long term. Just the other day, here at Footballguys, this writer identified some Ideal Fantasy Landing Spots for the top rookies in this class.
But there's a flip side to that coin. A dark side. For every landing spot that should leave fantasy managers, there's one that will elicit a groan—a spot where snaps, targets, and/or fantasy production could be hard to come by, at least in the early-going.
Now let's all hop on the fantasy Hindenburg.
After all, what could possibly go wrong in a giant balloon filled with exceptionally flammable gas?
Anyone got a cigarette?
QB Shedeur Sanders, Colorado
Disaster Landing Spot: New York Giants
In recent weeks, the idea of Sanders going third overall to New York has lost steam, in part because the Giants signed a pair of veteran quarterbacks in Jameis Winston and Russell Wilson. But as the big day nears, ESPN's Todd McShay said that some in New York are lobbying hard for Deion's kid.
"Something's going on. I'm not sure in the last 24 hours, but as of 48 hours ago, there's still a little push from the personnel department — that's Joe Schoen, the general manager, his director of scouting, the college director, all the scouts," McShay said. "I can't say individually who it is, but apparently someone on that side or multiple people on that side are [saying] let's really consider Shedeur [at] 3. There's a little bit more of a push than expected from the personnel people."
Fantasy managers should hope that Brian Daboll's side wins out. Heck, Sanders should be hoping for it. In New York, he's going to be stuck behind Wilson playing for a regime that's clinging to their jobs by their fingernails with a terrible offensive line and passing-game weapons (outside Malik Nabers) that don't exactly scare opponents.
RB Ashton Jeanty, Boise State
Disaster Landing Spot: Jacksonville
After amassing a ridiculous 2,601 rushing yards last year and flirting with a 3,000-yard season, Jeanty is everyone's pick as this year's top fantasy rookie. Regarded as a generational prospect in the backfield, Scott Powell of Athlon Sports doesn't believe that Jeanty should make it out of the top five in this year's draft.
"For Jacksonville," he said, "adding a weapon like Jeanty would show that the new regime of General Manager James Gladstone, Head Coach Liam Coen, and Executive Vice President of Football Operations Tony Boselli is not afraid to take swings at a potential Hall of Fame-type player. This would show a clear commitment to building an offense centered around versatility, mismatches, and explosiveness. Something modern NFL defenses struggle to contain. If the Jaguars want to build around Trevor Lawrence and take pressure off the underwhelming quarterback, drafting Jeanty helps with that by adding flexibility and explosiveness that few other prospects have to offer in a draft class lacking sure-thing stars at other positions. Jeanty offers upside that can't be matched, and it could be worth the gamble."
Is Jeanty landing in Jacksonville enough to knock him from the 1.01 slot in dynasty rookie drafts? Probably not. But the Jaguars already have a Round 1 back on the roster in Travis Etienne Jr.. Etienne (for the most part) hasn't met expectations, in part because of an offensive line that has been consistently cruddy—26th in run blocking last season per FBG's Matt Bitonti.
RB TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State
Disaster Landing Spot: Pittsburgh
An electrifying talent capable of taking it to the house any time he touches the ball, the 5-10 208-pound Henderson averaged over seven yards a carry last year and scored at least 10 times on the ground at Ohio State three times in four years. Ron Gregson of A To Z Sports believes that Henderson could be in play for the Steelers, potentially as early as the first round.
"Henderson was one of the last players that the Steelers hosted for a pre-draft visit in Pittsburgh," he said. "He's a tad shorter than what they have started in the past decade with Najee Harris, James Conner, and Le'Veon Bell, but you can't tell by the way he plays. Unlike (Omarion) Hampton, however, Henderson has seen a steady rise in estimated draft positioning, with some believing he could go as high as the first half of round one. He's certainly on the Steelers' radar and could be their feature back by the end of the weekend.
Henderson's on the smaller side for a running back. He had injury issues in Columbus. As huge a fan of the player as I am (He has the potential to be a fantasy RB1. I said it), he's better off as the "lightning" half of a shared backfield to start than asked to be an early-down banger opposite Jaylen Warren behind a bad line playing for an offensive coordinator in Arthur Smith who has the creativity of a fern.
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WR Matthew Golden, Texas
Disaster Landing Spot: Denver
The Denver Broncos face an important decision with the 20th overall pick after making the postseason last year, and the Broncos also have a fairly clear need to upgrade at wide receiver opposite Courtland Sutton. Bleacher Report's Maurice Moton thinks Denver should take a long look at Texas burner Matthew Golden in Round 1.
"Bo Nix had an impressive rookie campaign, throwing for 3,775 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions with a 66.3 percent completion rate. He can lead a more explosive passing attack with a big-play receiver," Moton wrote on April 19. "Instead of drafting a running back early in a class full of talent at the position, the Broncos should target a top receiver. Matthew Golden may be the No. 1 receiver on some big boards, and he can quickly become a top target in the Broncos' aerial attack."
The problem with Golden is that his best quality (that 4.29-second speed) doesn't really mesh well with what Nix does best. This isn't to say that Golden isn't an immensely talented young player. He could wind up the best wideout in the Class of 2025. But it would be an uphill climb in the Mile High City.
WR Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State
Disaster Landing Spot: Green Bay
When folks start rattling off the long list of standout receivers for the Buckeyes, Egbuka's name doesn't come up early—he spent his collegiate career mostly in the shadow of superstars. However, no player in Ohio State history caught more passes than the 6-1, 205-pounder, and Paul Noonan of Acme Packing Company singled Egbuka out as a player the Green Bay Packers should target.
"While Egbuka has never been the star, he has done everything else," he said. "He's played every position a receiver can play in order to highlight the skills of his teammates. He can play a dominant outside game as a deep threat or a possession role, making tough grabs over the middle. He can dominate the slot, and at the NFL level, would be one of the biggest and best athletes at the position when playing inside. His blocking could use some work, but it's hardly a disaster, and he's willing to get his hands dirty."
As with so many of the players here, Egbuka in Green Bay isn't "bad" because of anything to do with the young wideout. But in Titletown, Egbuka would be yet another Robin in a crowded wide receiver room that badly needs a Batman. Egbuka's best fantasy life in the NFL in on a team where his target share would be both higher and more consistent than in the land of cheddar and cold beer.
TE Tyler Warren, Penn State
Disaster Landing Spot: Indianapolis
In each of the last two seasons, the highest-scoring tight end in PPR points in fantasy football has been a rookie—Detroit's Sam LaPorta two years ago and Brock Bowers of the Raiders in 2024. If it's going to be three years in a row, Warren is the best bet in 2025, and PFSN's Brandon Austin wrote that the former Penn State star would look good in a similar uniform in Indianapolis.
"The Colts' offense lacked consistency in 2024, finishing 21st in EPA per play (-0.04) and 19th in points per drive (1.91)," he said. "While instability at quarterback played a major role, the team needs to surround Anthony Richardson with more support in order to properly evaluate his long-term potential. Indianapolis already has a promising trio of wide receivers in Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, and Alec Pierce, but the tight end room remains underwhelming. That's where Tyler Warren comes in. He checks every box for a modern NFL tight end — size, athleticism, blocking ability, and pass-catching skills — and has the potential to make an immediate impact in both the passing game and run game."
Warren's talent isn't in question here—he topped 100 catches and scored 12 total times last year. But Warren also had more than twice as many receptions and receiving yards last year than every tight end on the Colts' roster combined. Counting on Tony Jones and Danny Richardson (Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know. But does it matter?) to maximize Warren's fantasy upside is a bit like crossing the Atlantic in an inflatable bomb.
It's likely to blow up in your face.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on Twitter (Can't make him call it X) at @IDPSharks.