Exploiting ADP: Best Ball Targets

Average Draft Position (ADP) is a helpful tool that helps us understand generally where players are drafted. However, it's essential to recognize that it is merely a tool and only one aspect of the data that should inform our drafting decisions. We don't want to be average. We want to be best-ball champions. So let's dive into player targets where the market is lower on Underdog than it should be:

Quarterbacks

Justin Fields - New York Jets

• My Rank: 95 overall; QB8
  
• ADP: 102 overall; QB10

Fields has consistently matched or outperformed his current ADP of QB10:

His current cost has been his fantasy floor in points per game over the past three seasons. He's a dynamic athlete who breaks fantasy with his rushing ability, which is the main reason his fantasy points per dropback numbers crush every year. He ran for 1,143 yards and 8 touchdowns in 15 games in 2022 and just ran for 5 touchdowns in only six starts last season. The Jets project to struggle as a team, which will force the dual-threat Fields to keep his foot on the gas pedal all season. And unlike last season, Fields has no quarterback competition to deal with as he starts fresh with a new organization.

Justin Herbert - Los Angeles Chargers

• My Rank: 106 overall; QB10
  
• ADP: 125 overall; QB17

Herbert finished last season as the QB15 in fantasy points per game (16.7), yet is being drafted below that at QB17 despite the Chargers making numerous offensive upgrades. They drafted freak athlete RB Omarion Hampton in the first round, exciting outside receivers Tre Harris and KeAndre Lambert-Smith in the second and fifth rounds, and freak athlete TE Oronde Gadsden II in the fifth round. Najee Harris was also brought in in free agency (the health of his eye pending).

The Chargers' offensive line remains a strength, Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman provide continuity entering year two, the rushing game projects to improve and be more dynamic, and the rookie outside receivers project to give Ladd McConkey more space to dominate while also providing downfield playmaking themselves. Herbert will take a step forward this season.

Trevor Lawrence - Jacksonville Jaguars

• My Rank: 115 overall; QB17
  
• ADP: 131 overall; QB19
  

Before last season's injury-riddled season, Lawrence finished as the QB11 in fantasy points per game (18.1) in 2022 and the QB16 in fantasy points per game (17.2) in 2023. He's being drafted behind those marks despite this projecting to be the best season of his young career. Lawrence has a solidified superstar in Brian Thomas Jr. returning for his second season and received massive upgrades in the offseason with the hiring of head coach Liam Coen and the drafting of dynamic WR Travis Hunter second overall.

Bryce Young - Carolina Panthers

• My Rank: 133 overall; QB22
• ADP: 154 overall; QB23
  

Young was phenomenal last season from Weeks 8-18 after returning from his early-season benching. Over that span, Young ranked seventh in PFF's Passing Grade, second in Big Time Throws (26), eighth in Average Depth of Target (9.3), and had the 11th lowest pressure-to-sack percentage (14.9%). The All-22 film told the same story. Young consistently threw with elite anticipation, made decisive decisions, diagnosed and read defenses both pre- and post-snap, threw with accuracy, and exhibited playmaking ability—all of these point to an elite mental processor and a very good NFL quarterback.

Young has the benefit of continuity with the exciting young head coach, Dave Canales, entering his second season. He also received a massive upgrade to his receiving corps with the Panthers' selection of WR Tetairoa McMillan eighth overall. McMillan is 6-foot-5 and 212 pounds, which provides a massive, reliable target for Young. By operating as the alpha outside receiver, McMillan will also help the secondary and tertiary receivers, Xavier Legette, Adam Thielen, Jalen Coker, and Hunter Renfrow find success by seeing more favorable coverage and matchups.

Running Backs

Ken Walker III - Seattle Seahawks

• My Rank: 35 overall; RB14
  
• ADP: 50 overall; RB16

Walker is a special talent and an elite athlete. He was selected in the second round after putting up 1,725 total yards and 19 touchdowns as a junior at Michigan State. At the combine, he ran a 4.38 40-yard dash and posted jumps of a 34" vertical and a 10-foot-2 broad. Walker has NFL size at 211 pounds, making his athletic testing all the more impressive.

Before being plagued by injuries in 2024, Walker totaled 1,215 yards and 9 touchdowns as a rookie in 2022 and 1,164 yards and 9 touchdowns in 2023. Seattle has a defensive-minded head coach in Mike Macdonald, and their new offensive coordinator, Klint Kubiak, is Gary Kubiak's son. Gary was famous for producing elite rushing offenses, and Klint showed promise last year in New Orleans.

All offseason, Macdonald and Kubiak have said they're going to feature Walker. He's going to be the centerpiece of the offense.