Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.
Expecting the Unexpected
ESPN's Bill Barnwell put it best when he wrote this week: "Sunday afternoon of Week 1 is the best sort of chaos."
As fantasy investors, we should realize this.
Still, we're invariably caught off guard when things get weird . . .
And They Always Do
This year, for example, Week 1 presented the Steelers at the Jets as the game with the lowest over/under on the slate at 37.5 points. The Bengals at the Browns were at the other end of the range, with a 48.5 over under.
And of course, Pittsburgh and New York combined for 66 points while the battle in Cleveland -- which included a Cincinnati offense widely viewed as one of the league's most prolific, ended with a 33-point thud . . .
Mirage vs. Meaningful
Barnwell went on to suggest that some of what generally happens in Week 1 is something closer to a mirage -- some combination of talent, luck, and small-sample variance.
Some of what you see actually turns out to be meaningful.
But much of it is going to lie somewhere between the two ends of that range of possible outcomes, and the fantasy managers who are quickest to get a handle on that are often the most successful.
Let's start sorting things out by looking at an unusually productive group of QB1 (plus one) performances . . .
A Baker's Dozen of Goodness
Last year, six quarterbacks averaged 20 points or more per game. In Week 1 this year, 13 quarterbacks scored 20 points or more.
That's a good starting point for our exercise . . .
No Time for Variance?
Josh Allen led Buffalo to three scores in the final four minutes, and the Bills rallied from 15 points down to stun the Baltimore Ravens 41-40 in a season-opening Sunday night thriller.
Allen went 33-of-46 for 394 yards with two touchdowns and scored two more rushing in a matchup of the NFL's past two MVPs.
He topped all Week 1 fantasy quarterbacks in scoring with a whopping 38.8 points.
Per the Bills, Allen became the first player in NFL history to have at least 250 passing yards and at least two rushing touchdowns in a single quarter of any single game. His 251 passing yards in the fourth quarter were the most by a QB in a victory since 1996.
On Wednesday, for the 16th time in his career, Allen was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week.
None of this is new. In fact, it's become the norm -- from both the NFL and fantasy perspectives.
As I noted earlier this year, while his rookie season wasn't spectacular -- he finished as QB21 in 2018, Allen has been money since:
- QB6 in 2019
- QB1 in 2020, 2021, and 2023
- QB2 in 2022
- QB3 in 2024
That includes top-10 overall finishes (all positions included) in the last five years.
So, if you're not a fan of variance, Allen is your guy . . .
Dimes Cashes In
As NFL.com's Bobby Kownack suggested, there are certainly tougher tests ahead, but Daniel Jones looked capable on Sunday of putting the Colts in position to compete for the AFC South in 2025.
Although he had a few classic misfires and opened himself up to danger on a scramble or two, Jones kept the negatives to a minimum. He made the correct reads and consistently took what was there, but he also dialed up some high-difficulty completions. He dissected Miami's defense to throw for 272 yards and a touchdown on 22-of-29 passing and scored twice more on QB sneaks at the goal line.
Jones became the fifth quarterback since 1950 to have 250-plus passing yards and two-plus rushing touchdowns in his first game of the season.
He also finished the day with 29.5 fantasy points, tied for second-most of any quarterback on the day.
As ESPN.com's Stephen Holder noted, this game went precisely according to plan for Jones and the Colts. All along, coach Shane Steichen had predicted Jones would be a quick decision-maker and not force bad throws. He showed that by delivering on-time, quick throws, but also utilizing timely aggressive downfield targets to Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Warren, and Alec Pierce.
So far, so great for Danny Dimes.
That said, it's a single game against a willing opponent. We'll see how he does against a more challenging Broncos defense this week. I'm not expecting QB2 overall production on the regular, nor am I forcing him into starting lineups over more proven options.
Nonetheless, Jones has my attention . . .
Fields Forever
Jets quarterback Justin Fields made big plays with his legs, rushing 12 times for 48 yards and two touchdowns against the Steelers -- but, as ESPN.com's Rich Cimini suggested, that's hardly an upset.
From 2022 to 2023, as Chicago's starter, Fields ran for 40-plus yards in 20 of 28 starts and topped 100 yards multiple times.
Even with a limited passing profile, he still finished as a top-10 QB in 15 of those 28 games.
So, of course, the surprising part of his Week 1 performance with New York was the passing, in particular, his accuracy from the pocket and his overall command. Fields, who, as Cimini put it, "had a shaky preseason (to be kind)," completed 16 of 22 passes for 218 yards and a touchdown. He kept his eyes downfield and fit the ball into a couple of tight windows.
If he keeps this up, and if the Jets can run it as effectively as they did on Sunday, they will win more games than people expect.
Also, Fields, who finished the week tied with Jones for the QB2 overall spot with 29.5 points, seems far more likely to deliver high-end fantasy production than the Colts QB . . .
Can't Go Wrong
It was another stellar outing for Lamar Jackson, the 2023 MVP, who went 14-of-19 for 210 yards and two scores while adding 70 yards rushing and another TD in the Ravens' last-second loss in Buffalo.
Derrick Henry rushed for 169 yards and two touchdowns for Baltimore, but also contributed to the loss by fumbling with 3:06 left. Still, the Jackson-Henry duo had a hand -- or a leg --- in all five of Baltimore's touchdowns, and Jackson was his usual brilliant self before it all slipped away.
Like Fields, Jackson offers strong rushing equity.
Already the all-time leading QB rusher, Jackson broke Michael Vick's career rushing record (6,110 yards) on Christmas Day last year (and he did it in just seven seasons).
The difference is that Jackson's talent as a passer is also next level. He finished 2024 with 41 touchdown passes and just four interceptions.
His 29.4 points fell outside the top three by a tenth of a point. Expect more of the same in Week 2 against the Browns . . .
International Man of Intrigue
As The Athletic's Jeff Howe put it, "Justin Herbert caused an international incident."
The Chargers quarterback outdueled Patrick Mahomes II and the three-time reigning AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs last Friday night in Brazil, delivering a signature performance with clutch plays and some memorable moments. Herbert finished Friday 25-of-34 for 318 yards and three touchdowns in a turnover-free night, as the Chargers staved off a Chiefs rally to preserve a 27-21 victory.
In addition, Late-Round Fantasy's JJ Zachariason notes that Herbert's seven rush attempts against the
Chiefs were the seventh-most he's seen in an NFL game.
There was a lot to like here.
But let's not bury the lede: A typically run-happy Jim Harbaugh leaned heavily on Herbert as the Chargers closed out the game in the fourth quarter. Rather than leaning on first-round running back Omarion Hampton, the Chargers -- who ranked 28th in passing attempts and 11th in rushing attempts in 2024 -- called passing plays on 11 of 15 snaps to ice the game.
It was a clear sign that Harbaugh has gained more trust in his franchise quarterback.
Herbert finished as QB5 with 27.9 points.
If Harbaugh and coordinator Greg Roman continue leaning into their star QB, fantasy investors who drafted him in the double-digit rounds are going to come out way ahead this season . . .
