In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll fade some big names -- yes, even ones that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at nine players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In), four that don't hit quite right (the Out), and an Outlier of the Week.
First, let me stress: If any of my choices make you uneasy, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In and Out Accountability
This is where we review my previous week's results. With the NFL's variance battling me every step of the way, my pursuit of the elusive .500 mark has been challenging. But things have been looking up in recent weeks, with Week 13 bringing me one step closer to my goal. Let's see how it went:
- I was in on Giants QB Jaxson Dart, who was projected to finish as QB14 against the Patriots in his first game back from a concussion. There might have been some rust after a two-week absence, but the willingness to run remained. He just didn't do as much with his legs (or his arm) as he did during his first seven starts. Dart finished the week as QB23. A miss. ❌
- I was out on Texans QB C.J. Stroud in his return from a three-game concussion-related absence. He was projected to finish as QB13 against a tough Colts secondary. Stroud didn't necessarily struggle, but he didn't shine either. He finished as QB27. A hit. ✅
- I was in on Rams RB Kyren Williams, who was projected to finish as RB18 in Carolina. And I would have gotten my way had it not been for that pesky Blake Corum. I said Williams would exceed his projection, but Corum's RB18 finish took the top off Williams' day. He finished as RB21, leaving me to wonder what could have been. A narrow miss. ❌
- I was out on Panthers RB Rico Dowdle, who was on the other side of the ball against the Rams. He was projected to finish as RB13, which I felt was optimistic. I predicted Dowdle would fall short of that number. Little did I know that Chuba Hubbard would be the reason. Hubbard's surprising RB6 finish was a factor in Dowdle's RB37 finish. A big hit. ✅
- I was in on Patriots WR Stefon Diggs, who had a great matchup against the Giants. He was projected to finish as WR34 coming off a poor Week 12 outing. But he had been on a roll the previous five games. I was sure he'd get back on track in a favorable matchup. He did not. Diggs finished as WR59. A whopping miss. ❌
- I was out on Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. going up against a tough Houston defense. It wasn't Pittman as much as it was a slightly hobbled Daniel Jones battling that ferocious Texans pass rush. It was a factor, though it didn't keep Pittman's teammate, Alec Pierce, from producing. But it did slow Pittman, who was projected for a WR18 finish. I said he'd fall outside the top 20. Pittman finished as WR90 with 2.3 points. A hit. ✅
- I was in on Texans TE Dalton Schultz, who was projected to finish as TE13 against the Colts. Even with lowered expectations for Stroud in this one, I was counting on volume to carry Schultz into TE1 territory. He finished as TE11. It was close, but he took care of business. Another hit. ✅
- I was out on Patriots TE Hunter Henry going up against the Giants. This one felt a little spicy after he was the TE1 overall in Week 12. But I felt the wideouts would carry the day and keep Henry from hitting his TE12 projection. Another close call, but Henry finished as TE13. A hit. ✅
- As for my Outlier of the Week, Saints TE Taysom Hill? Well, it didn't seem unreasonable for the player New Orleans looks to in the red zone and at the goal line to hit paydirt. All I needed was a single score for Hill to outperform his TE30 projection. Instead, I got one catch, a single carry, 1.7 fantasy points, and a TE 51 finish. A total miss. ❌
That's right, I followed up a pair of six-hit weeks by taking a small step back. I have nobody to blame but myself, plus a more cautious-than-hoped Dart, Corum, and a less-than-imaginative Saints game plan that failed to leverage their most unique offensive weapon.
Here's where we stand after 13 weeks:
Week 13: 5 hits; 4 misses.
Season: 58 hits; 59 misses.
The goal here, whether it's realistic or not, is to hit .500 on my predictions. With three-straight winning weeks, I'm batting .495. We're close. Let's see if we can't reach the promised land in Week 14.
One more time: I'm taking chances and painting outside the lines here. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
Quarterback
In: Tyrod Taylor, NY Jets vs. Miami
Hey now! I might have multiple quarterbacks on bye, so no judging here.
In all seriousness, heading into a weekend with at least three front-line QBs sitting this one out -- and some other high-end options struggling (I'm looking at you, Lamar Jackson) -- Taylor might be a better streaming option than you think.
As Sports Illustrated's Matt De Lima suggested, Taylor's Week 13 performance was "more proficient than prolific" as he completed 19 of 33 passes for 172 yards and a touchdown. But as we often see with quarterbacks, it was Taylor's mobility that made him fantasy relevant -- or in this case, more than just relevant.
With 44 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown, Taylor finished as QB5 on the week with 21.3 fantasy points.
But zooming out a bit, he has finished inside the top 10 in two of three starts this season.
And the rushing isn't a one-game thing. With 13 rushing attempts across his last two games, Taylor has demonstrated he still has some rushing ability in his 15th NFL season.
This week, Taylor will face a Dolphins defense that's allowed 19.3 points per game to opposing quarterbacks, the fifth-most in the league.
They've also allowed the third-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season.
Bottom line: Taylor's Footballguys projection calls for a QB17 finish (with 16.23 points). I think he has QB1 upside this week, but my prediction is that he'll outperform his projection.
Out: Patrick Mahomes II, Kansas City vs. Houston
Have I reminded you all that my being out on a player doesn't mean you shouldn't start him?
(Or for that matter, that me being in on a player doesn't mean they're a must start.)
Being out on Mahomes is more about setting expectations than sitting the player.
The Chiefs are heading into must-win territory as we hit the stretch run. A victory on Sunday night would keep their playoff hopes alive, and luckily for the franchise, five of their six wins this season have come when playing at Arrowhead Stadium.
But it won't be easy.
As NFL Network's Michael F. Florio notes, Houston is the toughest possible matchup a QB can have in 2025, with DeMeco Ryans' unit allowing fewer than 12 fantasy points per game to the position.
Adding to my concerns here, the Chiefs could be without three offensive linemen against the Texans' ferocious defensive front.
Tackle Josh Simmons was placed on injured reserve on Wednesday after undergoing wrist surgery, putting his return this season in doubt. Guard Trey Smith (ankle) and tackle Jawaan Taylor (triceps/knee) were unable to practice all week and are listed as doubtful.
Their potential absences could force the Chiefs to dig even deeper into their depth chart.
That's not good, considering Kansas City has allowed 13 sacks in its last four games. Now, they will have to face off against arguably the best pass-rushing duo in the entire NFL. Danielle Hunter and Liam Anderson Jr. are a nightmare that the Chiefs will have to fend off as much as possible.
The Texans have received 21.5 combined sacks from Hunter (11) and Anderson (10.5) this season.
To be fair, Mahomes is a very elusive runner.
"Patrick is still Patrick," Ryans said. "Should call him 'Houdini.' He finds a way to make plays all over the field."
And yes, Mahomes has 22 touchdown passes this season. He's got fantastic weapons, and the veteran QB is on pace to become only the sixth player in NFL history to throw at least 25 touchdowns in eight straight seasons.
But we've seen him come up short in three of his last four outings: Mahomes was QB25 against the Bills in Week 9, scoring just 8.5 points; he was QB15 against the Broncos in Week 11, with 13.3 points; and QB14 against the Colts in Week 12, with 15.1 points.
Bottom line: This is all about Mahomes' Footballguys projection, which has him at QB5 (with 19.68 points). I predict he'll fall short of that number.
Running Back
In: RJ Harvey, Denver @ Las Vegas
With the injury to J.K. Dobbins, the Denver Broncos are leaning more on rookie running back RJ Harvey. As Mike Moraitis of The Sporting News suggested, the early returns have been underwhelming.
So far, in the two games since Dobbins was hurt, Harvey's tallied just 65 rushing yards on 24 carries, good enough for just 2.7 yards per carry.
Nonetheless, Broncos coach Sean Payton contends the best is yet to come.
"There's that saying, 'You haven't seen anything yet,'" Payton said on Thursday, before adding that Harvey has a "rare running skillset."
The hope is more touches for Harvey, who is leading the backfield but sharing with Jaleel McLaughlin. Harvey has posted 30 touches over the last two weeks, while McLaughlin has taken 14.
The good news has been Harvey's success in scoring position -- he converted a pair of touchdowns on plays within five yards of the end zone in Week 13. With a vote of confidence from his coach, we'll see him go up against what FantasyPros' Derek Brown characterized as a "middle-of-the-road Raiders run defense."
Since Week 9, Las Vegas has ranked 16th in rushing yards per game, 18th in rushing success rate, and has given up the sixth-highest missed tackle rate.
They've also allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to the position over that five-game span, including four games with opposing RBs scoring 16-plus fantasy points, including Kimani Vidal's 20.7 points just last weekend.
More importantly, they've given up five touchdowns to the position over the last two games.
Bottom line: Feels like I'm pushing this one a bit -- banking on touchdowns is always risky. Still, I'll predict Harvey outperforms his RB16 (with 15.1 points) projection.