Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.
Change is in the Air
Beyond playing games in places they've never played before, change is inevitable in the NFL. It's only a matter of time. That's especially true for coaches on underperforming teams.
We have some of those.
We also have some that are borderline struggling, and at least one that wasn't really struggling but made an aggressive decision like they are.
All the changes will have some fantasy impact. Let's sort them out . . .
The High-Profile Move
The New York Giants fired coach Brian Daboll on Monday after the team blew another double-digit lead Sunday in Chicago.
It was the second time this season the Giants lost after leading by at least 10 points with under four minutes remaining. They became just the second team since the NFL merger to do that, joining the 2004 Seattle Seahawks.
"The past few seasons have been nothing short of disappointing, and we have not met our expectations for this franchise. We understand the frustrations of our fans, and we will work to deliver a significantly improved product," Giants co-owner John Mara and Steve Tisch said in a joint statement.
Daboll won 2022 Coach of the Year in his first season with the Giants when they surprisingly went 9-7-1 and won a playoff game in Minnesota.
Things have fallen apart since.
Daboll was 20-40-1 as the Giants' head coach. His .336 winning percentage puts him behind the likes of Ben McAdoo and Ray Perkins . . .
We Should Have Seen It Coming
Last week, a couple of different reports emerged that Mara was poised to fire Daboll after the Week 7 come from ahead loss in Denver, but that Mara was talked out of it.
Although Daboll couldn't control the concussion that knocked Jaxson Dart out against the Bears, the Giants had a 10-point lead over the Bears with four minutes to play.
And they blew it . . .
Still Staying the Course?
Assistant head coach and offensive coordinator Mike Kafka will serve as the Giants' interim coach. Kafka was a finalist for multiple head coaching jobs over the past two years.
Joe Schoen will remain the team's general manager.
Tight ends coach Tim Kelly will take over as the offensive coordinator, although Kafka will continue calling plays.
That at least gives Dart some stability.
It's Kafka's voice he hears most during games, and that will not change.
It's also worth noting that the New York offense was significantly more productive during the past four seasons with Kafka as the playcaller than with Daboll. The Giants are averaging a respectable 23.6 points per game this season with Dart as the starter after being near the bottom of the league the previous two seasons . . .
What's Next?
So, what should we expect from the former assistant head coach and offensive coordinator now that he's in charge?
According to ESPN.com's Jordan Raanan, Kafka offers a more even-keeled and consistent personality than the highly charged Daboll.
That could be welcomed by the Giants with Daboll often considered all over the place.
In addition, with a free hand to make adjustments, Kafka could add some elements from the offense he ran in Kansas City with Patrick Mahomes II.
Impact on Dart
First things first, Dart has to get healthy.
He's in the concussion protocol and will miss Week 12. Sunday was the fourth time he needed to get checked for a concussion this season, dating back to the preseason.
Beyond that, Kafka will have to step into a bigger role in the development of Dart. Raanan reports that Daboll met with the young quarterback regularly and for hours. That responsibility now falls on Kafka.
Although just 38 years old, Kafka has extensive experience in the development of rookie QBs. His job in 2017 was to assist in the development of Mahomes. He played a key role in that.
It will be much the same now with Dart . . .
Impact on Investors
It's fair to wonder if we'll see as many designed runs for Dart. That's not to say he won't keep taking off on his own, but by one account, his 25 designed runs this year were more than any other quarterback in the league -- even though he didn't get his first start until Week 4.
As a former quarterback, Kafka might be more protective of the position.
But it's hard to make wholesale changes.
The Giants lost one of the best receivers in the league in Malik Nabers. They lost rookie running back Cam Skattebo, who was delivering top-10 numbers at his position. Given the circumstances, expecting an aggressive young quarterback to dial back noticeably is a reach.
And the resulting production will be appreciated by fantasy investors -- as long as Dart is on the field . . .
Let's Review
Dart has scored seven rushing touchdowns, which matches Cam Newton as the most by a QB through their first seven career starts.
Dart is also the first QB in NFL history with a rushing touchdown in five straight games, and he's topped 50 yards rushing in five of his seven starts.
How helpful is that rushing/scoring equity?
Dart is QB1 since he took over as the starter in Week 4 . . .
Who Else?
As ESPN.com's Eric Moody pointed out, Wan'Dale Robinson is in an excellent spot for the rest of the season -- at least in games with Dart under center, given the rapport the two have developed. Robinson has had at least five receptions in five of his past six games.
That should come as no surprise.
According to Late-Round Fantasy's JJ Zachariason, Robinson has seen at least one-third of New York's targets in three of his last four games. Since Nabers' season-ending injury, Robinson has averaged a 27 percent target share per game.
Better still, Robinson benefits from the Giants' sixth-easiest remaining schedule for fantasy wide receivers.
Also, tight end Theo Johnson has a 20 percent target share per game rate since Nabers went down, with a lowest mark of 15 percent. Zachariason notes that Johnson was at 24.2 percent against the Bears and is now averaging over 12 points per game without Nabers . . .
Next Man Up
Jameis Winston moved past Russell Wilson on the Giants' quarterback depth chart, and Kafka announced on Wednesday that Winston will be the starter against the Packers on Sunday.
The Giants view Dart as their franchise quarterback of the future, but as Profootballtalk.com's Michael David Smith suggested, in the present, the top priority is keeping him healthy, so a cautious approach makes sense.
With or without Dart, Smith contends Kafka will want to show that the offense can produce, and Kafka thinks Winston can do it better than Wilson . . .
Back to Buffalo?
The Bills rank second in total offense, including first in rushing, and sixth in scoring. Yet, some Bills fans are unhappy with offensive coordinator Joe Brady, especially after their team scored only 13 points in a loss to the Dolphins on Sunday.
Daboll was the Bills' offensive coordinator from 2018 to 21 under Sean McDermott.
McDermott was asked about a possible reunion with Daboll.
"I understand why you're asking that. At this point, not any under consideration," McDermott said.
McDermott also answered "yes" when asked if he is committed to Brady for the rest of the season.
But it's worth noting the Bills were held scoreless for the first three quarters against Miami, only the third time that has happened since Allen was drafted in 2018. The offense had three turnovers, including an interception and a fumble by Allen.
Numerous issues were on display for the Buffalo offense, including a lack of open receivers. Allen averaged a time to throw of 3.53 seconds, his most in a game since Week 15 of 2018, per Next Gen Stats.
The Dolphins had 17 team pressures and three sacks on Allen despite a 3.45-second average time to pressure, the longest against a quarterback who was pressured more than 10 times in a game this season.
Brady said Monday that if he could go back, he would have thrown the ball more against the Dolphins earlier in the game, as he felt the Bills were a bit more efficient passing the ball than running it. The Bills gained 23 rushing yards on eight carries to Allen's 9-of-15 passing for 73 yards in the first half, and went 0-for-6 on third down, contributing to a 16-point deficit.
Hindsight is great. It's even better when it leads to reflection and correction.
We saw Brady correct his usage of James Cook coming off the team's bye. We'll see if he continues to make the necessary adjustments.
And if he doesn't? We'll all be watching . . .
A More Consequential Change?
Lions coach Dan Campbell took over playcalling duties from first-year offensive coordinator John Morton this past week, and it ignited a dominant 44-22 victory over the Washington Commanders on Sunday.
The Commanders upset the top-seeded Lions in the NFC divisional round in January.
In the rematch, Detroit got revenge, scoring on eight consecutive offensive drives with Campbell drawing up the plays and directing the unit from the sidelines . . .
More About Identity Than Production
According to ESPN.com's Eric Woodyard, Campbell said he met with Morton for an honest conversation to discuss some changes last Monday, a day after a stunning home loss to the Minnesota Vikings.
Entering Sunday's game, Detroit ranked among the league leaders in total points per game but was still struggling to find an offensive identity outside of the home run plays.
"Look, it was honest, it was he and I and we were good," Campbell said of the meeting. "And like I told him, 'Man I need you . . . But I feel like this is something that I'm going to do.'"
Jared Goff said the preparation for Sunday's matchup didn't feel any different during the practice week, as Morton continued to play a significant role, particularly in the pass game, which Campbell still feels is vital.
Campbell pointed out the importance of Morton's role.
"Listen, John Morton's all team. That's all he cares about. He just wants to win. He wants to be a part of it. He wants to help where he can, and he was outstanding today.
"Look, if you're him, of course it probably doesn't feel too good but he's also a pro and he understands everything so we move on."
They moved on with vigor . . .
Two Stood Out
Jahmyr Gibbs, who in Week 9's defeat to the Vikings had a career-low 28 scrimmage yards on a season-low 12 touches, was unleashed in Washington.
- On his first 12 touches against the Commanders, he amassed 105 yards and two scores, and he finished with 172 scrimmage yards and three TDs.
- Gibbs scored his 41st career touchdown, joining Hall of Famer Barry Sanders as the only players in Lions franchise history to score 40 or more touchdowns within their first three seasons, per ESPN Research. Sanders had 47 from 1989 to 1991.
- Gibbs became the fifth player in NFL history to score more than 40 touchdowns before turning 24 years old, joining a club comprised of Hall of Famers Barry Sanders, Randy Moss, Emmitt Smith, and Jim Brown.
- It was also Gibbs' fourth career game with a rushing touchdown and a receiving touchdown, which is the second most in Lions history behind Sanders (five).
- Gibbs hit a top speed of 21.11 miles per hour on his 43-yard TD run in the fourth quarter, his third score of the game.
- Gibbs, who was named NFC Offensive Player of the Week for his performance, finished this one as RB3 on the week with 38.2 points.
Meanwhile, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta had five receptions apiece for a combined 111 yards and a touchdown. But it was Jameson Williams who benefited most from the change.
The more-involved Williams, who hadn't eclipsed the 100-yard receiving mark since Week 2 against the Bears, finished with six receptions, a team-high 119 receiving yards, and a touchdown.
He had a 22 percent target share against the Commanders and finished Week 10 as WR1 overall with 23.9 points.
As Zachariason noted, Williams averaged 7.9 points per game across his first five games of the year; over his last four (which includes on shutout), he's at 14.8 . . .
Other Numbers
Of course, on an offense as diverse as Detroit's, there's enough to go around.
- St. Brown has recorded seven or more receptions in six of nine games this season. He's also seen 10 or more targets in four of them as the focal point of the Lions' passing attack.
- Gibbs had a monster game, but David Montgomery ran more routes than Gibbs for the first time since Week 9 of the 2024 season, per PFF data.
- Goff had a 6.9 percent touchdown rate last year -- the highest of his career. Through nine games this year, his touchdown rate is 7.3 percent, yet he's still averaging 18.4 fantasy points per game versus 18.9 last season.
- Goff is the third quarterback in NFL history to throw at least 17 touchdown passes, a 73.0 percent completion percentage, and a passer rating of 115.0 through the first eight games, joining Drew Brees (2018) and Tom Brady (2007). He added to that with three more scoring strikes in Washington.
- Goff has also thrown a touchdown in 15 consecutive games.
That's all well and good, but . . .
Is It Sustainable?
Campbell and the Lions are eyeing a tough November stretch where he expects things to start shaking out within the division with challenging games at Philadelphia and Green Bay, so they can really see what they're made of.
"You're going to start seeing the risers and fallers, and a lot of these teams are playing each other," Campbell said. "We're one of them."
No doubt.
And even with a challenging schedule overall, Moody points out that St. Brown and Williams should benefit from the fifth-easiest upcoming schedule for fantasy wideouts . . .
On the Hot Seat?
Again, as Daboll's departure indicates, we've reached the point in the season where we get clarity on coaching status. Here are some coaches who either need to get things on track or who should be getting their resumes updated.
Matt LaFleur, Green Bay
After opening with two home wins, the Packers seemed primed for a Super Bowl run. Now, after back-to-back home losses -- scoring just 20 combined points against the Panthers and Eagles -- Green Bay might miss the playoffs.
And LaFleur's job may be in jeopardy.
According to The Athletic, new team president Ed Policy isn't necessarily sold on the seventh-year coach beyond this year. Policy stated in June that 2025 will be pivotal for both LaFleur and GM Brian Gutekunst.
Their contracts run through 2026, but Policy said no extensions would come before the season's end. As PFT's Mike Florio put it: "It likely will be either new deals or pink slips."
Outlook
As CBSSports.com's Cody Benjamin wrote, "Still on pace for a sixth postseason appearance in seven years, LaFleur would be snatched up in a heartbeat if the Packers were to cut him loose."
Zac Taylor, Cincinnati
At 3-4, the Bengals had just beaten the Steelers and faced the Jets and Bears at home. The playoffs felt within reach.
Then they gave up 500-plus yards to both New York and Chicago, allowing 86 points in two losses -- despite tallying 893 yards and 80 points on offense.
As Sports Illustrated's Matt Verderame noted, Taylor's firing of longtime defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo looks worse by the week. Anarumo now leads a Colts defense that has them atop the AFC South, while Cincinnati ranks last in both points and yards allowed under Al Golden.
Outlook
Joe Burrow's toe injury explains some of the struggles, but there's no defending this defense. If the Bengals miss the playoffs for the fifth time in seven years under Taylor, change may be coming.
Pete Carroll, Las Vegas
Las Vegas hoped to gain stability by coaxing Carroll out of retirement, pairing the former Super Bowl winner with minority owner Tom Brady and ex-Seahawks QB Geno Smith.
Instead, as Benjamin wrote, "Carroll's short-sighted approach has left the Raiders looking like his age (74)."
Outlook
While Carroll didn't inherit a stacked roster, his reliance on aging veterans and maligned coordinator Chip Kelly could prompt Brady, Mark Davis, and others to pivot quickly toward a long-term rebuild.
Raheem Morris, Atlanta
The Falcons boast elite talent at receiver and running back, plus a capable pass rush, in the weak NFC South.
Yet they sit at 3-6 and are headed for another forgettable season -- without a first-round pick, having dealt it to the Rams.
Morris, now in his fifth full season as a head coach, has a 32-53 record with no playoff appearances. In his second season back with Atlanta, he's likely to finish below .500 again.
Outlook
Verderame notes that Arthur Blank is typically patient -- Arthur Smith got three 7-10 seasons -- but another reset may be needed. The Falcons haven't reached the postseason since 2017.
Mike McDaniel, Miami
Despite a Week 10 win over the Bills, Miami enters Week 11 at 3-7 (with deeper regression over two seasons) and short on optimism. As Verderame asked: "Similar to Daboll, what's the rationale for keeping McDaniel, even with Sunday's upset of Buffalo?"
The situation worsens with GM Chris Grier already fired.
With a new GM incoming, they'll likely want their own coach -- and eventually, their own QB. McDaniel remains a sharp offensive mind, but Miami has regressed noticeably over the past two seasons.
Outlook
McDaniel will remain in demand as an offensive assistant. He's still among the league's best at designing creative, winning schemes.
Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland
At 2-7 and destined for last in the AFC North, Cleveland is tracking for a high draft pick. A new QB could be on the radar -- especially with Dillon Gabriel failing to inspire since Week 5.
The Browns hold two first-round picks. Are Stefanski and GM Andrew Berry the right duo to oversee the next phase?
Outlook
It's time for a change. The Lions demonstrated how a great coach/GM tandem can transform a franchise.