Dynasty Buckets, a Different Look at Tiers: Running Backs

Below, you'll find running backs grouped by bucket, along with the tier in which they currently reside in the Footballguys Dynasty Rankings for a little added fine-tuning.

You can check out our buckets from last month here.

For our third and final edition, I've used the comments to highlight players who could be poised to move up or down as training camps get underway across the NFL.

As I type this today, we have officially hit training camp season. As practices ramp up, we will start to get more actionable information than we do during the OTA periods. During these next few weeks, I am paying attention to roles. Preseason games are fun, but I am paying more attention to reports out of practice. I want to know if someone is emerging as a potential bell cow running back, or if someone looks primed to take over a third-down or goal-line role they didn't previously hold. We all want the every-down back, but there just aren't as many as there used to be. So, beyond that handful of players, I look for value in my dynasty running backs based on whether they can carve out a consistent role and whether they have a chance to emerge as the bell-cow running back during the season.

Starters (with Footballguys Tier in parentheses)

Players I'm comfortable starting, either at a specific position, or at a flex or superflex spot.

• Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (1):  

The Lions have talked openly this summer about using Gibbs more as a wide receiver, but I am skeptical of the notion that more time split wide will automatically mean more fantasy points. Gibbs has 52 catches in each of his first two seasons. He had 71 targets in 2023 and 63 targets in 2024. So I am cautioning dynasty managers here. He may split out wide more, but I don't know that will automatically translate into more receptions. It might just mean he catches a few passes from out wide that he previously might have caught out of the backfield.

That said, I'm not sure he has topped out. Potential touchdown regression aside, consider this:

He had 302 total touches last year (rushes + receptions), which ranked him eighth among running backs. The top 10 backs averaged 330.3 touches, so it is conceivable he could get a little more volume without becoming an outlier. If nothing else, this tells me his value should hold steady for the next little while, which is the precise unit of measurement we're supposed to use in dynasty leagues. I think. Anyway...while it's true that there could still be a little meat on the bone for Gibbs' fantasy production, I take that as comfort that he'll be consistent for a few years more, rather than a sign that he will ascend into the top 5 running backs in overall touches.

The Lions hope to be playing into February, and they'd like to be healthy when they do it. My hunch is that they'd like 302 touches to be closer to the top end for Gibbs, so his last touch of the season can be on the Lombardi Trophy.

He remains a top-flight dynasty asset, but this talk of moving him out wide more, while it could be true, doesn't feel to me like something that will change his numbers all that much. Whether they hand it to him or throw it to him, he's going to touch the ball. Just because they line him up at wide receiver more than last year doesn't mean he'll touch it more. I think I smell some coachspeak.

• Bijan Robinson, ATL (1)
• Ashton Jeanty, LV (1)
• De'Von Achane, MIA (1)
• Breece Hall, NYJ (1)
• Saquon Barkley, PHI (1)
• Bucky Irving, TB (2)
• Omarion Hampton, LAC (2)

One of my greatest dynasty regrets will be not finding a way to acquire a share of Hampton before training camp kicked off. Najee Harris avoided serious injury in a fireworks incident, but he'll still begin camp on the PUP list. The Harris injury might open the door for Hampton to take the job, and Hampton seems able to bust through it like the Kool-Aid Man. Be patient, though. Hampton's price is likely to increase significantly over the next few weeks, but I think it will settle at a slightly lower level once Harris returns and the games begin. There's a flurry now with Harris' injury and camp starting, but don't buy while the hype is strong. His value is likely to peak before it settles, and that is when you should try to obtain him.

• Chase Brown, CIN (2)
• Kyren Williams, LAR (2)
• Jonathan Taylor, IND (2)
• Christian McCaffrey, SF (3)
• Ken Walker III, SEA (2)
• James Cook, BUF (2) Tier 3 last month; Tier 2 the month before.

I think the yo-yoing going on here is mostly due to his contract situation. Hold.

• Josh Jacobs, GB (3) Tier 2 last month
• Kaleb Johnson, PIT (3)
• Chuba Hubbard, CAR (3)
• Alvin Kamara, NO (3)
• Derrick Henry, BAL (3)
• Joe Mixon, HOU (3)
• Nick Chubb, HOU (FA)
• David Montgomery, DET (3)
• Isiah Pacheco, KC (3) Tier four last month
• D'Andre Swift, CHI (3) Tier four last month
• Najee Harris, LAC (4)
• TreVeyon Henderson, NE (3)

Rotation Bucket

• Quinshon Judkins, CLE (3)

Sometimes people get into trouble. When they do, I will address how an arrest could impact a player's dynasty value, without making any judgment regarding the veracity of the charges or the morality of the conduct. We all have our own lines, and I think it's normal and fine to decide you don't want to roster someone because they've done something that makes it difficult for you to root for them. This is supposed to be fun after all.

The arrest is a bad start to his career. The details, though sparse at this point, involve allegations of domestic violence. They are, sadly, quite similar to the, I don't know, dozens or even hundreds of other domestic violence cases I've seen in my career as a lawyer. It'll take a while for the legal process to sort out and for the NFL to take whatever action it deems appropriate. I suggest you follow our own Drew Davenport on Twitter (@DrewDavenportFF) and Bluesky (@drewdavenport.bsky.social) for legal updates. Drew has a wealth of relevant legal experience and utilizes it to do an excellent job of reading the tea leaves to predict the football fallout from these arrests.

Me? Speaking strictly from a dynasty standpoint, I am more concerned that these allegations happened before he signed his rookie contract. I don't know what the Browns will do, but I suspect this will become leverage in contract talks, particularly with second-rounders holding out for guaranteed money, and franchises being reluctant to offer any. At one point, I thought Judkins would take this job and never look back. Now I fear he misses training camp time working out the contract against the backdrop of a fresh arrest for domestic violence, and the result is a backfield split that depresses his value in the short to medium term.

Don't fade him too far, though. And if you are okay with rostering him, try to acquire him cheaply if possible. Just understand that the combination of legal troubles, missed camp time, and competition in the backfield could lower his rookie year ceiling quite a bit. Because of that, I have to move him from the starter bucket to the rotation bucket this month. I thought he'd be a locked-in starter by the time September rolled around. Now I think he most likely ends up in this rotation bucket, but I fear that if he misses enough time, he could drop even further.

• Travis Etienne Jr., JAX (3) 
• Tank Bigsby, JAX (5)
• RJ Harvey, DEN (3)

I said last month that Dobbins' presence didn't change Harvey's outlook for me from a dynasty perspective, but it might muddle his value a bit in the short term. Well, it has. I still like him, but I think Dobbins will give the Broncos enough this year that both players end up solid rotation bucket pieces, even if not solid starters every week. For that reason, Harvey drops from the starter to the rotation bucket this month.

• Cam Skattebo, NYG (3)
• Tyrone Tracy Jr., NYG (3)
• Tony Pollard, TEN (3)
• Jaylen Warren, PIT (4) 
• Aaron Jones, MIN (4)
• James Conner, ARI (4)
• Trey Benson, ARI (4) Tier 5 last month
• Brian Robinson Jr, WAS (4)
• Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (5)
• Javonte Williams, DAL (FA) Tier 5 last month
• Jerome Ford, CLE (FA)
• J.K. Dobbins, DEN (FA)

Upside/Blocked Bucket

• Zach Charbonnet, SEA (3)
• Tyjae Spears, TEN (4)
• Bhayshul Tuten, JAX (4)
• Blake Corum, LAR (FA) Tier 5 last month.

Corum just keeps dropping a tier whenever I do this exercise. He's gone from tier 4 in our consensus ranks to the free agency tier since May. This must be partly due to the Rams drafting another running back this spring, but I am not going to be too quick to dismiss Corum. Kyren Williams had 350 touches last year, good for third in the league among running backs. The Rams coaches will run a back into the ground. I don't personally believe Williams can continue to produce at a high level with that many touches. If he breaks down, who will be the next guy up?

• Ray Davis, BUF (5)
• Braelon Allen, NYJ (FA) Tier 5 last month
• Dylan Sampson, CLE (FA)
• Tyler Allgeier, ATL (FA) Tier 5 last month.
• Woody Marks, HOU (FA)
• Jaylen Wright, MIA (FA)
• Audric Estime, DEN (FA)
• Isaac Guerendo, SF (FA)
• Tahj Brooks, CIN (FA)
• Isaiah Davis, NYJ (FA)

Veteran Depth Bucket

• Rachaad White, TB (5)
• Rico Dowdle, CAR (FA)
• Austin Ekeler, WAS (FA)
• Kareem Hunt, KC (FA)
• Justice Hill, BAL (FA)
• Miles Sanders, DAL (FA)
• Khalil Herbert, IND (FA)
• Elijah Mitchell, KC (FA)

Scratch-Off Tickets Bucket

• Jordan Mason, MIN (FA)
• Jaydon Blue, DAL (FA)
• Jordan James, SF (FA)
• Trevor Etienne, CAR (FA)
• Jonathon Brooks, CAR (FA)
• Jarquez Hunter, LAR (FA)
• DJ Giddens, IND (FA)
• MarShawn Lloyd, GB (FA)
• Devin Neal, NOS (FA)
• Kendre Miller, NOS (FA)
• Cam Akers, NOS (FA)
• Roschon Johnson, CHI (FA)
• Brashard Smith, KC (FA)
• Ollie Gordon II, MIA (FA)

Smith and Gordon didn't receive the draft capital I had hoped they would in the spring, but I still like the talent and feel that they both landed in a situation where they could offer some upside if things break their way. I am holding both with some tempered optimism.

• Will Shipley, PHI (FA)
• Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN (FA)
• Kyle Monangai, CHI (FA)
• Jacory Croskey-Merritt, WAS (FA)
• LeQuint Allen, JAX (FA)
• Kimani Vidal, LAC (FA)
• Raheim Sanders, LAC (FA)

Conclusion

The running back position can be tricky in dynasty leagues. The short shelf life of the average back, the injury risk inherent in the position, and the modern NFL's emphasis on backfield committees combine to make the position especially volatile. Lineup requirements in many leagues, between running back and flex spots, mean the depth at the position dries up fast.

If I'm a contender, I'm looking to add as many guys from that starter bucket as possible because I'm going to need them to survive the inevitable attrition as the calendar churns toward, and into, the new season. I want to get a handle on the backs I'll be counting on in my lineup and rotation, then make the moves necessary to insulate the ones who have quality backups.

If I think I'm in rebuild mode, I am looking for those contenders and hoping to ship them the players they might use to insulate their running backs.

As always, if you adopt any of these concepts, remember to be flexible with them and to pick and choose the parts that work best for your leagues and your style of play. This works for me, but I encourage you to take it and make it better.

Thanks for playing along. Check in next week for updated tight end buckets.

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