In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll also fade some players that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at eight players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In) and four that don't hit quite right (the Out).
But first, let me stress: If any of my choices make you uncomfortable, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In and Out Accountability
I use this spot to review my previous week's results. It can be a painful experience, even on good weeks. It's downright miserable after others.
Like this one.
Of course, I wrote about it before Week 1. I wrote about it after Week 1. Unpredictability, variance, and surprising outcomes are the norm on opening weekends. I fell prey to all those, and in hindsight, leaned a little too heavily into some of the offseason-long narratives that I built.
Let's see how it went:
- I was in on Carolina QB Bryce Young, based in large part on his strong finish last year. I felt he would build on that and easily surpass his Footballguys QB22, 15.78-point projection in a favorable matchup against the Jaguars. In fact, I called for a top-15 finish among all QBs. This was never going to be easy on a week that 13 quarterbacks scored 20 points or more. But with a QB25 finish on 10.2 points, it was all moot. Young was a miss.
- I was out on Colts quarterback Daniel Jones, who was projected to finish as QB12 with 17.68 points. Even with a favorable matchup against Miami, I saw that as overly optimistic and predicted he would fall just short of that. It was not overly optimistic. The opposite, in fact, as Jones finished as QB2 overall with 29.5 points. Yes, you read that right. He was QB2. A huge miss.
- I was in on Cardinals running back James Conner against the Saints in New Orleans. He was slated to finish as RB13 with 15.5 points. I predicted he would land in RB1 territory (inside the top 12). With Trey Benson getting more opportunities than I expected, Conner finished as RB16 with 14.4 points. A miss.
- I was out on Jets running back Breece Hall, whose stock had been falling with talk of a timeshare. He also had a tough matchup against the Steelers. All that was reflected in his RB22, 12.64-point projection. I predicted he'd fall outside RB2 (worse than RB24) territory. Instead, Hall dominated the workload and the Steelers. He finished inside RB1 territory (RB11) with 16.5 points. Yes. A miss.
- I was in on Browns wideout Jerry Jeudy, who I expected to surpass his Footballguys WR23, 13.59-point projection in an anticipated track meet with the Bengals. Neither the track meet nor the WR20 finish I predicted came to pass. Instead, Jeudy finished as WR32 with 11.6 points -- behind his teammate Cedric Tillman, who finished as WR18 and would have been a great hit had I gone his way. I didn't. Another miss.
- I was out on Steelers receiver DK Metcalf, who faced a daunting matchup against Jets shutdown corner Sauce Gardner. Metcalf's Footballguys Projections, a WR35 finish with 12.2 points, took that tough matchup into account, but I pushed it a bit and predicted the former Seahawk would fall short of a WR3 finish (meaning WR37 or worse). For the record, Metcalf was WR28 after posting a 4-83-0 receiving line on seven targets, though only 11 yards came on his four targets with Gardner as the closest defender. A miss nonetheless.
- I was in on Patriots tight end Hunter Henry, who was projected for a TE22 finish with 6.8 points going up against the Raiders. I predicted a top-15 finish given Henry's chemistry with Drake Maye and a favorable matchup. Guess what? Henry was exactly TE15. Finally, a hit!
- I was out on Bears tight end Colston Loveland, who made his NFL debut against the Vikings on Monday Night Football. The rookie's Footballguys Projection called for a TE16 finish and 8.18 points. I predicted he would fall outside the top 20. It was even more inauspicious than that; Loveland finished as TE37 with 3.2 points. Sad for Loveland. Happy for me. Another hit.
As for my Outlier of the Week, Jauan Jennings was projected to finish as WR53 with 9.28 points. I predicted he would surpass both numbers. He went into the game after nursing a calf injury all summer, but it was a shoulder injury that sidelined him early in Seattle that kept him from making good on my prediction. He finished as WR85 with 3.6 points. It was a rough outing for Jennings, but I blame myself for rolling out a guy who barely practiced in August.
Here's where we stand:
Week 1: 2 hits; 7 misses.
Season: 2 hits; 7 misses.
The goal here, whether it's realistic or not, is to hit .500 on my predictions. I obviously have some ground to make up, so let's get with it.
But first, I'll reiterate: If any of my choices make you uncomfortable, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please lean into the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
Quarterback
In: Drake Maye, New England @ Miami
I know what you're thinking. My big miss on Danny Dimes came against a Dolphins secondary weakened by free agency and injuries. It was notable enough a weakness that I acknowledged it in my argument against Jones last week. So I'm looking to course-correct by exploiting this matchup in Week 2.
You're not wrong.
As ESPN.com's Tristan Cockroft suggested, en route to making Jones look like a fantasy superstar, the Dolphins' cornerbacks struggled. As a result, Miami allowed the fourth-highest yards per attempt, sixth-highest passer rating, and the eighth-most passing yards in Week 1.
Adding to that, NFL Network's Michael F. Florio notes that Miami generated pressure at the fourth-lowest rate in the league.
All of it prompted Footballguy Devin Knotts to write this in his Week 2 Passing Matchups: "The Dolphins' defense looks like the type of unit to elevate even average passing games."
And here we are.
Maye threw the ball 46 times against the Raiders last week. He completed 30 of them, but still fell short in terms of fantasy production, finishing the week as QB19 with 14.8 points. But there's still the rushing upside that Footballguy Jeff Blaylock alluded to this summer when he reminded readers that Maye had 421 rushing yards and averaged 7.8 yards per carry last year. That led all NFL quarterbacks who played at least 10 games last season, without a single designed run.
With an emerging Kayshon Boutte, Stefon Diggs, DeMario Douglas, Hunter Henry, and running back TreVeyon Henderson all offering playmaking ability, Knotts put a fine point on it: "Maye and his developing weapons may find more room to work than expected."
Bottom line: Maye's Footballguys Projection calls for a QB11 finish with 18.14 points. I'll predict a top-10 finish.