Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.
It's Time
Week 1 is upon us. The season opened with Thursday night's Cowboys-Eagles game in Philadelphia, and it continues Friday night with the Chargers hosting the Chiefs at Corinthians Arena in Sao Paulo, Brazil. With only one Monday night game this year (the league has featured a Monday-night doubleheader in Week 1 in recent years), the Sunday slate doesn't really suffer from it.
That's something we should probably get used to, as the league will begin spreading games through the week as the year rolls on.
But that's all down the road. We have plenty of grist for the mill this week. And that starts with my usual admonishment:
Don't Outsmart Yourself
A caller to my SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio show Tuesday night expressed frustration about Miami running back De'Von Achane's uncertain status (he's practicing this week, but I laid out the concerns about his tender calf muscle in last week's Fantasy Notebook). The caller asked if he should drop a player to pick up Commanders running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. and play him over Achane in the flex.
The caller had a list of other options already on his roster, including San Francisco wideout Ricky Pearsall.
Overthinking is a dangerous game.
You'll find more on the Commanders' backfield below, but here's a spoiler alert: We don't have a lot of information on anticipated roles in Washington. We have a reasonable expectation that Pearsall will be a primary receiving asset in San Francisco.
I'm all for playing hunches, I'd just like them to be grounded in something other than pure speculation.
So, if we're looking for a Week 1 game plan, how about . . .
Play Your Studs?
I know this is something we all say heading into the season. I don't know that it's the correct terminology, though. Sure, we know who we think our studs are.
But until they hit the field, it's probably better to say we're going to . . .
Play Our Investments
That's the answer. We spent the entire offseason telling ourselves happy stories about the players we're confident enough to invest draft capital on.
First, second, third, and even fourth-round picks should be in your lineups Week 1, regardless of matchups, as long as they're active and ready to roll come kickoff.
So who are these investments we’re banking on in Week 1?
The Auto Plays
At least for the opening week, this year's first-round picks (based on final Footballguys Average Draft Position Data) -- Ja'Marr Chase, Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Christian McCaffrey, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Malik Nabers, Derrick Henry, and Ashton Jeanty -- will all be locked into our lineups. There are no major injury issues and without concern this week.
Of the second-rounders -- Puka Nacua, Brian Thomas Jr., Achane, Brock Bowers, Drake London, A.J. Brown, Josh Jacobs, Jonathan Taylor, Chase Brown, Bucky Irving, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson, Achane is currently the only one whose status is uncertain.
The third-rounders -- Ladd McConkey, Trey McBride, Kyren Williams, Tee Higgins, Jayden Daniels, James Cook, Tyreek Hill, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Omarion Hampton, George Kittle, Garrett Wilson, and Mike Evans -- are all healthy and should be locked into lineups.
Your fourth-rounders are also healthy and will likely be top options in a majority of leagues and formats . . .
After That?
We start taking chances on targets of opportunity, and it's fair to consider avoiding situations where injuries, matchups, or role-related uncertainty clouds the outcomes.
Heading into the opening weekend, one issue causes additional consternation . . .
Depth Chart Shenanigans
There's no escaping the fact that NFL teams fully leverage the leeway granted with the depth charts they're required to release each week. Most weeks, we have additional information to help us separate what's real and what's chicanery.
Week 1, however, is difficult -- and I have a couple of examples that matter to fantasy investors . . .
The Feature Back We Didn't See Coming
Steelers running back Jaylen Warren secured his future in Pittsburgh with a two-year contract extension that runs through the 2027 season. The deal includes $12 million guaranteed, a source told ESPN's Adam Schefter. The full value of the deal is north of $17 million over the next three years.
As ESPN.com's Brooke Pryor noted, Warren, who initially made the Steelers' roster as a rookie undrafted free agent in 2022 after turning heads in his first training camp, enters the 2025 season as the team's starting running back after three seasons as a complementary player to former first-round pick Najee Harris.
The Steelers declined Harris' fifth-year option and let him walk in free agency earlier this year, leaving Warren leading a position group that also includes rookie third-round pick Kaleb Johnson and former Eagles running back Kenneth Gainwell.
At this point, it's worth noting that Johnson was listed as RB3 behind Warren and Gainwell on the initial, official depth chart the team released on Tuesday.
More importantly, Warren is the lead back here.
"Certainly he'll be our featured runner," head coach Mike Tomlin said of Warren on Tuesday. "Certainly you'll see [Johnson and Gainwell], but at what time and at what degree [will depend week-to-week]."
It's safe to say that's not what fantasy investors expected.
After all, Johnson was being drafted a full round ahead of Warren heading into this week. Clearly, the expectation was that Johnson would emerge as the leader of a committee here.
Should it have been, though?
Johnson, a third-round pick, is the type of downhill power runner the Steelers love. At 224 pounds, he packs a punch with runaway speed to boot.
But the same could be said of Harris.
Nonetheless, Warren carved out a significant role working in a timeshare. As a rookie, Warren played 31 percent of offensive snaps, but in the next two seasons, he and Harris more evenly split reps as Warren got 49 percent and 45 percent of offensive snaps.
I don't see a seismic shift coming here -- if anything, Warren might start a little faster as Johnson gets up to speed in terms of pass protection and understanding the nuances of the pro game -- and I do believe that will come in time.
Still, Warren can be very effective. He has a career average of 4.8 yards per carry and 7 yards per reception. Though hampered by injuries last season, he recorded 511 rushing yards on 120 attempts and a touchdown, along with 310 receiving yards on 38 catches, in 15 regular-season games -- which was good for an RB39 finish.
But Warren was RB20 in 2023, so the upside is there.
An RB2 finish would be ahead of the RB3 price we've been paying for Warren in recent days. How realistic is a return top-24 territory?
That probably depends on how good Pittsburgh's offense is . . .
And That Will Be Decided Under Center
According to The Athletic's Jeff Howe, Aaron Rodgers has added a level of accountability on the practice field and in the facility. The offense appears to still be working through some things, as there's been a lot of turnover at key positions, but Rodgers has been intentional about teaching as much as possible after each play.
While Howe won't be shocked if it's bumpy out of the gate, he believes it's fair to be cautiously optimistic that Rodgers, wideout DK Metcalf, and company will eventually find their rhythm.
Metcalf will be Rodgers' top target in the passing game, and SteelersNOW's Chris Ward reports Calvin Austin III will be their WR2, a role that could lead to another increase in targets for the speedy receiver.
Tomlin said he is "extremely confident" in Austin's abilities as the team's No. 2. "I'm extremely confident in him, but I'm also equally confident in Roman Wilson, Jonnu Smith, and Pat Freiermuth. There's a lot of speculation and narratives about the quote-unquote No. 2.
"And I just think in today's game, it comes at you in a lot of ways."
ESPN's Dan Graziano believes the tight ends are the players who could make coordinator Arthur Smith's offense surprising and unconventional.
Freiermuth leads the group, but Jonnu Smith -- who played for Arthur Smith in Tennessee and Atlanta -- Connor Heyward, and the massive Darnell Washington are also in the mix.
The Steelers believe the depth and variety in that group will allow them to show a number of different looks to opposing defenses. With the wide receiver depth chart somewhat thin after Metcalf and Austin, look for a lot of 12- and 13-personnel sets from the Steelers in 2025 . . .