In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll fade some players that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at nine players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In), four that don't hit quite right (the Out), and an Outlier of the Week.
But first, let me stress: If any of my choices make you uneasy, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In and Out Accountability
This is where we review my previous week's results. The first three weeks were rough, Week 4 and Week 5 were solid, but it's been hit and miss since. Week 9, however, wasn't too bad. Let's review:
- I was in on Detroit QB Jared Goff, going up against a Vikings defense he's abused in recent games. This time, Brian Flores dialed up some heavy pressure. How heavy? Minnesota combined for a whopping 30 QB pressures, per Next Gen Stats. But even though the Lions didn't have their best game, Goff did enough to finish as QB13, ahead of his QB15 projection. A hit. ✅
- I was out on Houston QB C.J. Stroud, who faced a tough matchup against the Broncos. He was projected to finish as QB14. I predicted he would fall short -- and he did. Yes, Stroud left the game early with a concussion, which sealed the deal for me. I'm not sure he wouldn't have given me this hit either way; Stroud 6-for-10 passing for 79 yards (and 4.4 fantasy points) at the time of his exit near the end of the first half. Whatever the case, this was a hit. ✅
- I was in on Cardinals RB Bam Knight, who had a favorable matchup against the Cowboys. Based on his workload the previous two weeks, I expected him to surpass his RB20 projection easily. And it would have gone my way if it hadn't been for that pesky Emari Demercado, who out-carried Knight 14 to 9. Demercado finished the game as RB27. Knight? He was RB35. A miss. ❌
- I was out on Seattle RB Ken Walker III, who was projected to finish as RB21 in Washington Sunday night. My primary concern was Walker's backfield mate, Zach Charbonnet. But it was a different piece of the backfield that limited Walker. It was Sam Darnold, who tossed four touchdowns, and the passing attack that ended up being the focus. Walker finished as RB28. A hit. ✅
- I was in on Steelers WR DK Metcalf, who was projected to finish as WR19 going up against one of the most generous secondaries in the league. While he's disappeared at times this year, I didn't expect that to happen against the Colts. Abracadabra! Indy made him vanish. I predicted a top-15 finish. Instead, Metcalf was WR78 after being held to 2.6 fantasy points. A brutal miss. ❌
- I was out on Denver WR Courtland Sutton, who faced a very tough matchup in Texans cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. In fact, Stingley lined up across from Sutton on 27 of Sutton's 34 routes, allowing only one reception for a 30-yard touchdown across two targets and 18 coverage matchups. Sutton was projected to finish as WR22. I said he'd fall short of that. He did, ending up as WR36. A hit. ✅
- I was in on Chargers TE Oronde Gadsden II, who emerged as a dominant force at the position, especially over the previous three games. I expected him to surpass his TE6 projection in a very favorable matchup against the Titans. He didn't. Instead, he finished as TE9 (and he's still a dominant force at the position). That said, do I regret bailing on my initial pick for this spot, Colston Loveland? Yes, I do. Mainly because I let Cole Kmet coming off the injury report keep me from following through. Moral of this story: Never fear Kmet. A miss. ❌
- I was out on Chiefs TE Travis Kelce, who was projected to finish as TE5 in Buffalo. While I expected him to fall short of that number, I still felt he would be a TE1 play in this one. He didn't even come all that close, finishing the week as TE15. Nonetheless, I'll take the hit. ✅
- As for my Outlier of the Week, Kayshon Boutte was projected to finish as WR40, despite posing WR7 numbers over the previous three games. Unfortunately, a hamstring issue limited him to just six snaps and no production. Oh well, the injuries giveth (see Stroud above), and injuries taketh away. This was a miss. ❌
All in all, it was a pretty good week. But it could have been better. As always, I have nobody to blame but myself -- and maybe Demercado, Boutte's hamstring, Metcalf's disappearing act, and my irrational fear of Kmet -- for keeping me from having my best week of the season.
Here's where we stand after nine weeks:
Week 9: 5 hits; 4 misses.
Season: 38 hits; 43 misses.
The goal here, whether it's realistic or not, is to hit .500 on my predictions. With a small step forward this week, I'm batting .469. Let's build on that in Week 10.
But first, repeat after me: I'm taking chances and painting outside the lines here. If that's not for you, please default to Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
Quarterback
In: Sam Darnold, Seattle vs. Arizona
As I noted in this week's Fantasy Notebook, Darnold might well have had the greatest game of his career in Washington last Sunday night. It was undoubtedly his best first half, one in which he completed every pass he threw for 282 yards, a perfect 158.3 rating, and the four touchdowns mentioned above -- tops in his career for an opening half.
Darnold, who finished the game 21-of-24 passing for 330 yards and the four TDs, completed his first 17 passes of the night, matching Warren Moon for the franchise record.
But this was no anomaly; it was the latest in a series of strong performances, and Darnold is building momentum.
Although he sits at QB11 for the season, the veteran had been more solid than spectacular until Sunday night.
But there's something to be said for solid.
As FantasyPros' Derek Brown notes, Darnold has QB1 outings in three of his last four games (he was QB5 last week, QB9 in Week 6, and QB5 in Week 5), and has been one of the most efficient passers in the NFL on a per-dropback basis. Late-Round Fantasy's JJ Zachariason points out that Darnold now owns two of the top-three games this season by Expected Points Added (EPA) per drop back, and three of the top six on the season.
Among 41 qualifying passers, Darnold ranks:
- First in yards per attempt
- Seventh in passing yards per game
- Second in highly accurate throw rate
Having a breakout star in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is emerging as one of the league's most dangerous receivers, and trading for deep threat Rashid Shaheed this week adds to the fun.
And the matchup?
Sports Illustrated's Michael Rovetto notes that even though Arizona ranks among the top 10 in terms of fewest fantasy points allowed per game to signal callers, it still ranks among the top 10 in passing yards allowed per game (231.8), and starting cornerback Max Melton may miss this week with a concussion.
Bottom line: Darnold's Footballguys projection calls for a QB13 finish with 18.11 points. I'm predicting Darnold will finish in QB1 territory.
Out: Justin Herbert, LA Chargers vs. Pittsburgh
All right, disclaimer time. Me being out on a player means I don't think they'll hit their projection. It doesn't mean they aren't startable in regular season-long play.
So yes, I realize how impressive Herbert has been in recent weeks. He has over 25 fantasy points in three straight games. He's scored 18-plus points in four consecutive games.
He has an array of high-end receiving talent in Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston, and Oronde Gadsden II.
And the passing matchup against the Steelers is super-favorable.
Pittsburgh has allowed the third-most passing yards and third-most fantasy points per game to QBs. Five quarterbacks have scored 19-plus points in their first eight games.
Making him even more interesting for fantasy investors, Herbert has run for more than 30 yards six times this season, averaging 42.4 rushing yards per game over the last five weeks. As NFL Network's Michael F. Florio noted, that gives him a ceiling to finish as the QB1 in any week, while also elevating his floor.
So what's my issue?
Well, in addition to the very high expectations for Herbert, the Steelers' pass rush showed signs of life last week. In fact, ESPN.com's Brooke Pryor suggested it was "a resurrection" as the defense got five sacks, forced a season-high six takeaways, and held Indianapolis, the league's best offense, to just 20 points.
With several defensive players missing (including four safeties), Pittsburgh entered last Sunday's game outmanned on paper. But edge rushers T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith combined for three sacks and two forced fumbles.
Can the Steelers use the same recipe against a diminished Chargers offensive line?
Being without a proven starting left tackle after Joe Alt suffered a season-ending high ankle sprain last week will make things difficult for Herbert.
Remember, the Chargers had high expectations coming into the year, expecting the pairing of Rashawn Slater and Alt to drive one of the best offensive lines in football. But Slater tore his patellar tendon in August, and now Alt is done after sustaining a second injury to his right ankle.
That leaves Los Angeles choosing from four players in Trey Pipkins III, Austin Deculus, Jamaree Salyer, and Trevor Penning to fill its two tackle spots against the Steelers.
That shouldn't be overlooked.
It's a big reason why Herbert has been sacked 28 times and pressured 135 times this season.
In addition to being the third-most in the league this year, those 28 takedowns put Herbert on pace for a career-high number of sacks.
Of those 135 pressures, 60 have come within 2.5 seconds of the snap. Both figures are the highest in the NFL.
Bottom line: Herbert's Footballguys projection has him finishing as QB3 with 21.34 points. The Steelers' pass rush will take the top off Herbert's day, and he'll finish outside the top 5. Again, startable. Just keep your expectations in check.
Running Back
In: Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland @ NY Jets
It's been a month since I last rolled with Judkins in this spot. That interest came after the rookie had a three-game stretch in which he led the NFL in carries while ranking second in rushing yards, fourth in explosive runs, third in red-zone carries, and fourth in goal-line carries.
The matchup against the Steelers that week wasn't a free pass, but it wasn't so daunting that it kept me from being in on Judkins.
Both he and I came up short in that one.
The circumstances are different this time. As Florio notes, Judkins has scored fewer than five fantasy points in two of his last three games. But in the one with more than five points, it was way more. In fact, he ran for three touchdowns and racked up 26.4 fantasy points against the Dolphins in Week 7.
So we all know Judkins has a low floor and a high ceiling, but the volume needed to hit the ceiling is there. In three of his past four games, Judkins has gotten at least 24 touches. He suffered a shoulder injury in Week 8, the only game he failed to hit that number (he's off the injury report coming off the bye).
Meanwhile, Florio notes that Judkins has topped 13 points in four of seven games. In the down games, the Browns fell behind by numerous scores for most (if not all) of the second half.
So the question is this: How will Sunday's game against the Jets play out?
A few thoughts on this. First, since Week 2, the Jets have given up the fourth-most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. They're also generous in terms of fantasy production. SI's Michael Fabiano notes they've allowed 13-plus fantasy points to seven running backs this season, including three runners who have eclipsed the 20-point mark.
In addition, the Jets have held a two-score lead once all year (nine points in Week 1) -- and that was before they traded away some of their best defensive players.
Bottom line: Judkins' Footballguys projection calls for an RB14 finish with 14.58 points. I say he finishes in RB1 territory for the second time this season.