Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season -- and into the offseason.
The Fun Is About to Ratchet Up
The NFL Scouting Combine begins in Indianapolis this week.
In addition to being the first gathering that we hear from NFL coaches and decision-makers, we also get a look at this year's incoming crop of rookies.
You'll want to be on top of this, and there's no better way to gain a complete understanding of all the key skill player prospects than the Footballguys 2026 Rookie Draft Guide.
Whether you use it as a companion piece as you follow the workouts or as a standalone resource to help you plot out fantasy strategies, the Rookie Draft Guide is your complete blueprint for the 2026 NFL rookie class.
Get Version 1 here. It's free.
A Tale of Three Quarterbacks
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. The 2025 campaign was also a season of development.
Every year, we see players outperform their draft status. Others fail to meet expectations. Still others benefit from a lack of expectations.
In 2025, we saw that dynamic play out at quarterback.
One finally became what we hoped. One lost momentum. One may be just getting started.
Let's look at examples of these archetypes from last season to see if we can leverage their respective situations to our advantage in fantasy.
The Breakout We Were Waiting For
Trevor Lawrence's rookie season in Jacksonville was underwhelming and overshadowed by dysfunction under coach Urban Meyer. Then, multiple injuries and turnover issues outweighed sporadic spurts of elite play under coach Doug Pederson from 2022 to 2024.
But Lawrence made good on his potential in 2025.
Indeed, as ESPN.com's Mike DiRocco suggested, the back half of last season was the best stretch of football in Lawrence's five-year NFL career.
The Jaguars won eight consecutive games to close out the regular season and win the AFC South title before a wild-card playoff loss to the Buffalo Bills ended their year.
That eight-game stretch saw Lawrence score 24 total touchdowns, 19 of them through the air with just five interceptions, and Jacksonville averaged an NFL-best 33.6 points per game.
Better still, Lawrence finished the season as QB4 with 342.2 fantasy points, highlighted by even better production down the stretch.
He was QB1 from Weeks 10 through 17.
But his work in Weeks 15 and 16, with at least three touchdown passes and at least one touchdown run as our fantasy playoffs began, made him a candidate for 2025 fantasy football MVP.
What Took So Long?
DiRocco went on to remind readers that Lawrence, the first pick overall in the 2020 NFL Draft, had to overcome challenges to get there.
Last year alone, changes to his footwork, learning a third different offense, dealing with injuries and inconsistencies at the receiver position, and focusing too much on avoiding turnovers were all obstacles.
It took more than half the season, but once Lawrence and the Jaguars figured things out, he played at a level that merited NFL MVP consideration.
How Good Was He?
Lawrence finished the year having completed 60.9 percent of his passes for 4,007 yards and a career-high 29 touchdown passes with 12 interceptions.
Lawrence also recorded career highs in carries (82), rushing yards (359), and rushing touchdowns (nine).
His 38 total touchdowns were third-best in the NFL behind only Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (46) and Bills quarterback Josh Allen (39).
He made strides as he got more and more comfortable in first-year head coach Liam Coen's offense.
The Coen Factor
As DiRocco suggested, one of the main reasons the Jaguars hired Coen was because of the work he did with Baker Mayfield on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2024, helping the 2018 No. 1 pick produce the best season of his career.
Mayfield also finished fourth in fantasy points per game (21.6), trailing only Lamar Jackson, Allen, and Joe Burrow.
Owner Shad Khan wanted the same with Lawrence, who struggled to live up to his No. 1 pick hype after being dubbed a generational prospect coming out of Clemson.
In preparing for the 2025 season, Coen and Lawrence started from the ground up -- literally. Coen noticed his quarterback's feet were too often not in the right position, so they flipped his left foot in front of his right. Lawrence also worked on manipulating defensive backs with his eyes.
The Defining Moment
According to DiRocco, one of the biggest pieces of advice from Coen came in Week 10.
Following the Jaguars' Week 9 loss to the Houston Texans, a game in which the Jaguars blew a 19-point fourth-quarter lead, Coen had a message for his quarterback: Quit worrying about making mistakes.
"'Hey, man, cut it loose and let it rip when we do have some of those opportunities,'" Coen recalled telling Lawrence. "'Hey, man, yes, we don't want to turn the ball over.' But we can't be thinking about that or trying to play not to make a mistake at all.
"Just go cut it loose, let it rip, and see what happens."
In the nine games before that conversation, Lawrence had 222 passing yards per game, 10 touchdowns, seven interceptions, 172 rushing yards, and four rushing touchdowns. The Jaguars went 5-4.
In the eight games after, Lawrence was fifth in passing yards (2,009) and second in passing touchdowns (19) with five interceptions. He also had 187 yards and five touchdowns rushing, which ranked third and second, respectively, among quarterbacks.
The Jaguars won all eight games to secure the AFC South.
Now, as we look toward the 2026 campaign, the question is obvious . . .
Is it Sustainable?
Consistency has always been one of Lawrence's biggest issues as a pro.
The last time he was playing like a top NFL QB was from Week 12 in 2022 to Week 12 in 2023. Lawrence ranked top 10 in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and passing yards while throwing 24 touchdown passes to nine interceptions. More importantly, the Jaguars were 14-4.
In his five-year career, the Jaguars are 19-2 in regular-season games in which Lawrence has a Total QBR of 70 or better. However, he has had nearly as many games in which his QBR was 30 or worse -- and the Jaguars are 1-17 in those games.
According to DiRocco, team officials believe Lawrence will spend more time in the first category, for various reasons.
Touchdown regression is a real possibility -- and something that would have an impact on his overall numbers, but the positives can't be ignored.
The Scheme
Coen's offense is QB-friendly. It maximizes passer efficiency through high-percentage throws (screens, run-pass options) while utilizing deep-ball opportunities.
The results are evident.
One season after Mayfield set a career high with 41 touchdown passes with Coen calling his plays, Lawrence set a Jaguars franchise record for total touchdowns with Coen at the helm.
Good Health
This will be a healthy offseason for Lawrence, different than last offseason when he had to work his way back from shoulder surgery.
"I think you look at Trevor having the opportunity for the first time in a while to be healthy during an offseason, and going into Year 2 of a system with the collaboration with Grant Udinski, Spencer Whipple, Shane Waldron, myself, John Van Dam, having an offensive chemistry with the same players," Coen said.
"We can get a lot better at the details, knowing the why."
The Receiving Corps
Lawrence will also have continuity among his receiving corps.
Five of the team's top six pass catchers are under contract for 2026, including Jakobi Meyers, Parker Washington, Brian Thomas Jr., and Travis Hunter.
Lawrence said after the trade to acquire Meyers that he liked throwing to the newcomer because he could tell exactly where Meyers was going to be.
Washington, pressed into a bigger role after Hunter's injury, had his best season as a pro with 58 catches for 847 yards -- giving him an impressive 14.6 per catch -- and five touchdowns.
Thomas' second season fell short of his standout rookie season, but he rallied from a tough training camp, early-season drops, and an ankle injury that cost him three games. He averaged 15.9 yards per catch in the six games following his return, nearly two yards more than he did in the eight games before the injury (14.0).
In addition, SI.com's John Shipley characterized tight end Brenton Strange, who caught 46 passes for 540 yards and three touchdowns despite missing five games, as "a true building block."
Confidence Level High
After the growth in his first season under Coen, expectations for Lawrence and the offense are higher in 2026.
And they should be -- even with a first-place schedule that includes six playoff teams. "I was very proud of the way Trevor approached this season and finished this season," Coen said before suggesting more is possible.
"A lot of meat on the bone, though," he added.
Considering the circumstances, Lawrence's QB7 spot on the initial 2026 Footballguys projections seems reasonable.
But his QB9 early Average Draft Position (ADP) is more interesting.
The associated sixth-round price tag could be a real value if Lawrence not only sustains, but builds on last year's effort to deliver top-five production over the course of a full season . . .
Rebound Coming in Washington?
Jayden Daniels was the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2024, when he threw for 3,568 yards and 25 touchdowns while also rushing for 891 yards and six scores.
He helped lead the Commanders to a 12-5 regular-season finish and a spot in the NFC Championship Game. In three postseason games -- all on the road -- Daniels continued to impress, throwing for 822 yards with five touchdowns and one pick while rushing for 135 yards and a score.
Daniels finished his rookie season as QB5 overall in total points and QB7 in points per game with 20.6 points per outing.
Last year didn't go as well.
A Tale of Woe
Daniels played in seven games but finished only four because of injuries. He suffered a sprained knee, a hamstring injury, and a dislocated left elbow. He did not play in the final four games after reinjuring the elbow in a Week 14 loss to the Vikings in Minnesota.
Daniels remained on the active roster, but head coach Dan Quinn announced he would not play for the rest of the season, with the team 3-10 at that point.
Not surprisingly, he was QB34 on the season. Daniels' 16.6 points per outing over his seven games played ranked 18th.
The good news?
Washington is determined to get Daniels back on track in 2026.
The Starting Point
Quinn said the desire to get more from Daniels factored into the decision to change offensive coordinators after the season.
Quinn, speaking publicly about his staff changes for the first time, told ESPN.com's John Keim that the Commanders' offense will look different under new coordinator David Blough, who takes over for Kliff Kingsbury.
Washington mutually parted ways with Kingsbury two days after its 5-12 campaign ended.
The Plan
With Blough, the Commanders want to run more plays under center to help the offense -- and Daniels -- evolve.
According to Keim, Washington ran an NFL-low 192 plays with the quarterback under center over the past two seasons, which was 158 fewer than the team with the next fewest (Cincinnati Bengals). Daniels has attempted only 18 passes from under center across his first two campaigns.
The argument for more snaps center isn't that it constrains Daniels, it's that it unlocks more of his toolkit. A more balanced, pro-style attack with legitimate bootleg and keeper threats should make Daniels more dangerous and create more opportunities through the air and on the ground with play action.
"We're going to try to feature every part of Jayden in the way that makes him unique and special," Quinn said.
Tapping into those attributes was a big part of Daniels' rookie success.
Back to Basics
Blough said altering the Commanders' style will help Daniels, especially playing under center.
Washington ran no-huddle on 1,271 plays the past two seasons under Kingsbury; that was 810 more than any other team.
"It's something that I'm convinced about that with his skill set, his fundamentals, the things that we absolutely loved about him when he first got here, still rang true," Blough said. "[Under center] is something that we will like to implement with him and get him in that position."
The 30,000-Foot View
Blough's broader stated philosophy is to be schematically diverse and unpredictable, to "make the same things look different and different things look the same, which can cause a little bit of stress for a defense."
He's described it as a recognizable, pro-style system with speed and physicality baked in, aligned with Quinn's "speed and violence" vision for the offense.
If there's a concern, it's that Blough has never called a play in an NFL regular-season game. He still has something to prove.
Getting Back to the Playmakers
While Washington isn't loaded with difference-making weapons, the one they do have hasn't been a big enough factor in the offense.
As WUSA9's David Harrison pointed out, for the past two seasons, veteran wide receiver Terry McLaurin has not just been underutilized but also misused.
McLaurin was targeted more than 10 times in a regular-season game, and just four times over the last two years, according to Harrison. That's four games out of 27 he played in 2024 and 2025 combined, roughly 15 percent of his availability.
On the other hand, the speedy wideout was targeted fewer than five times in nine games during that same span, accounting for 33 percent of the games he played.
Rectifying That Usage
That imbalance highlights how poorly the Commanders' top receiver has been used.
But Blough isn't going to let that stand.
"This thing's going to be built around how do we get Terry 10 targets a game and get him explosive receptions after explosive receptions to kind of flip the field," Blough told Harrison.
Fantasy managers will be thrilled to hear that.
Looking at the top receivers around the league, McLaurin's numbers stand out, but not in a good way.
When you look at players like Ja'Marr Chase, who has 17 games with 10 or more targets, or Puka Nacua with 15, and even second-year wide receiver Malik Nabers, who has 11 despite playing just 19 games over the past two seasons, the difference is stark.
Even Tee Higgins, the Bengals' No. 2 receiver, has six such games, which makes McLaurin's numbers even more disappointing.
Blough doesn't just envision forcing the ball to McLaurin. He plans to design an offense that actively and effectively uses the star receiver.
If Blough can make that a reality, it could help eliminate the struggles that defined the Commanders' offense this past season.
What Blough Can't Change
The overall lack of playmakers beyond Daniels and McLaurin.
While that issue won't necessarily keep either Daniels, who sits at QB6 on our initial projections, or McLaurin, our WR15, from meeting expectations, the lack of a strong supporting cast makes it easier for defenses to focus their attention on the lead pieces.
Still, things can change quickly in the offseason.
With Deebo Samuel Sr. expected to hit free agency, the team will likely look at other options, like the Giants' Wan'Dale Robinson, the Colts' Alec Pierce, or the 49ers' Jauan Jennings. In addition, Ravens unrestricted free agent Isaiah Likely could replace Zach Ertz as the middle-of-the-field target for Daniels.
How About a Discount?
We'll be watching Washington's moves in free agency and the draft to see what kind of support is coming for the pieces we're most interested in. For now, early ADP data suggests those interested in discounts might want to pass on Daniels, who opens as QB5 with a sixth-round price tag.
McLaurin, on the other hand, going as WR24 in Round 5 offers more upside -- especially if Blough makes good on those 10 targets per game . . .
