Sunday Morning Update:
Given that this is a two-day slate, I'll likely post additional thoughts Sunday around 10AM, but if anything breaks regarding news, I'll be sure to update this article throughout the weekend as inactives are announced.
Injuries Create Opportunity:
- Nico Collins has been ruled out this week with a concussion. This is obviously significant news as Houston will be without their top receiving option while facing a difficult matchup in New England. This should upgrade all options for Houston. Dalton Schultz, Christian Kirk, and Jayden Higgins are all decent options this week.
- George Kittle is out for the 49ers with a torn Achilles. We saw DeMarcus Robinson have a massive game last week with 6 receptions for 111 yards and a touchdown, but that seems unlikely to happen again with Ricky Pearsall back this week. We also saw Christian McCaffrey have 66 yards and two receiving touchdowns as the two combined for 15 of the 32 targets last week. Jake Tonges will get the primary tight end responsibilities but at $5,800 is too expensive this week.
- There’s a chance that Sam Darnold does not play with an oblique injury. It would seem somewhat unlikely that he misses this game, but he was a late add to the injury report which is something to monitor. Obviously if he were to miss this completely changes the landscape of the entire slate this week as Jaxon Smith-Njigba is projected to be one of the highest-rostered players on this slate.
Wildcard Strategy
The focus of this article is going to be centered around GPP’s simply because even on a four-game slate it is too small of a slate to play cash games given the amount of overlap.
If you have a choice between a four-game slate and a two-game slate, you should almost always choose the four-game slate unless you’re just chasing the biggest prize pool. A four-game slate gives you two days of games, the most options and realistically some interesting late swap opportunities.
Late Swap:
If you’re playing a multi-day slate, there are some interesting slate strategies that you can take this week that can give you a competitive edge. Late swap is an under-utilized tool that can save your day, or even give yourself a higher chance of winning a tournament.
The first thing to do if you’re planning to late swap is look at the roster percentages at some point while the game is going on. With this only being one game going on at a time, it makes it fairly easy to track the standings to determine all the players in that given game and what percent of your opponents have each player. Once you’ve realized what percentage of the field has each player, you can start adjusting accordingly.
For example, if R.J. Harvey ends up being highly rostered and you’ve faded him, you now know how to react depending on if he has a big day or a poor day. If he has a big day and is rostered by 30-40% of the field, you’re going to then need to adjust and take more of a chance in your lineup. You’re likely going to have to take chances on players who may be lower rostered, as it does not necessarily make sense to be blocked out by duplicative players if you know that a certain player you didn’t have has already put up a big game.
Conversely, if you had an unpopular player that had a big game, you then can take the approach of de-risking your lineup. Utilizing Footballguys DFS Roster Projections you can look to see how Footballguys is projecting players to be rostered in that given week. If you already have created separation from the field with an under-the-radar player, you can then look at taking some of the more popular players such as a Colston Loveland, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, or Christian McCaffrey if they’re not in your lineup to be able to block your opponents from catching up with a big game from one of those higher rostered players.
Saturday Thoughts
Buffalo at Denver
Outside of RJ Harvey and Khalil Shakir, this game is going under the radar, but has sneaky shootout potential. Josh Allen is projected to be rostered by about 15% of rosters and Bo Nix just 11%. What’s most interesting here are the secondary pass catchers, as Khalil Shakir and Courtland Sutton should both be more than 20% rostered, but players like Brandin Cooks (10%), Pat Bryant (18%), and even Troy Franklin (2%) could be interesting. Franklin has 65 yards or more in three of his last seven games, and while the risk is high, he could be a player that at just $5,600 could be a player that the Bills lose focus on a deep play with Jordan Poyer out this week. At $8,400, James Cook could be a player who goes underlooked. The matchup is extremely difficult as Denver gave up the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, but they also faced arguably the easiest opposing running back schedule in the NFL.
Evan Engram is another player who is going under-the-radar as he’s only scored one touchdown this season, but again with Poyer out and the issues that the Bills have had at linebacker, this could open the door for a big game from the athletic tight end at a significant discount at just $4,800.
San Francisco at Seattle