Top 5 Passing Matchups
LA Chargers at Dallas
Even with no front line to speak of, Justin Herbert continues to maximize the Los Angeles offense. The Chargers are down too many tackles to count, even the deep backups keep getting hurt, and no quarterback has faced a higher pressure rate. And yet, Herbert has kept the offense afloat and, at times, dynamic. He's topped 250 yards 5 times and thrown multiple touchdowns 7 more. Most crucially, this week, he'll get to ply his trade against one of the league's weakest and most beatable secondaries. Herbert has developed a great rapport with slot specialists Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen; they've claimed 45% of the targets. Neither has produced much of late, but McConkey boasts the explosiveness to make plays, and he'll spend much of the day against the burnable Caelan Carson.
Midseason rumors of the Dallas defense rounding into shape did not come to pass. They stifled Jayden Daniels and the Commanders in Week 7, back when that was considered an achievement, but have been shelled through the air ever since. Their last seven opponents have put up a robust 8.0 yards per attempt, with 15 touchdowns to 3 interceptions. Last week, J.J. McCarthy and the floundering Vikings offense managed 10.4 per throw of their own. Surprisingly, the pass rush has thrived amid this defensive rebuild. This is overwhelmingly an issue with the secondary, which will require heavy attention in the offseason. Wideouts have run wild both downfield and in the red zone here in 2025. Top cornerback Trevon Diggs remains out, and the reinforcements have not picked up the slack in the slightest. The team has juggled several subpar bodies in and out of the lineup, and Daron Bland looks much less effective than in recent years. Caelen Carson and Shavon Revel Jr. were exposed badly last week, and the Chargers are bringing a much better passer to town.
Pittsburgh at Detroit
Aaron Rodgers hasn't exactly raised the ceiling for the offensively-challenged Steelers, but he's at least stabilized things. And the last two weeks have brought his best play as a Steeler: 8.3 yards per throw on a 75.4% completion rate, with 3 touchdowns along the way. When Rodgers is able to release quickly and his receivers cooperate, they can at least maximize a friendly matchup (like this one). Not to mention, the Steelers are kind enough to streamline their air attack for the fantasy world, with 58% of the team's wide receiver yardage going to DK Metcalf. Metcalf remains an explosive open-field threat, and he's beaten much better secondaries than this one. There aren't any other playable options here, but Metcalf projects beautifully, and everyone's touchdown upside gets a boost in this matchup.
The Lions have skidded to the edges of the playoff picture, and much of the blame lies on the pass defense. Injury and inconsistency have plagued this group all year, but never more than recently. They've allowed three of their last four opponents to throw for 365+ yards, and the fourth fired four touchdowns. To be fair, it's difficult to field a workable secondary with three of four starters shelved. Safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph are the playmaking heart of the unit, but both are down with long-term injuries, as is cornerback Terrion Arnold. The results have been nothing short of disastrous. Over these four games, nine different wideouts have posted double-digit fantasy lines, headed by Puka Nacua (9-181), Dontayvion Wicks (6-94-2), and Cowboys backup Ryan Flournoy (9-115-2). Flournoy, for the record, saw heavy action because CeeDee Lamb left that game in the third quarter… with 6-121 already on the board. It's safe to assume they'll struggle to push the quick-throwing Aaron Rodgers and to contain the dynamic DK Metcalf downfield.
Carolina vs Tampa Bay
Bryce Young and the Panthers continue to chase down a playoff spot, and surprisingly, much of the momentum is coming from Young. He's been far from perfect, but he's made massive leaps in terms of reading and attacking a defense in the clutch. He impressed wildly in a 15-20-206-3-0 upset win over the Rams, who boast a feisty pass defense, just two weeks ago. Young hasn't compiled many big-number games, but he's capable of producing in a shootout, as seen by 448 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Falcons in Week 11. The Buccaneers have struggled mightily against the pass, and this game looks likely to stay close. That should keep Young looking downfield for Tetairoa McMillan, who's dominated with a 26% rookie target share. (Among the team's WRs, he's claimed a stunning 42%.) McMillan has been better off the bat than the team could've hoped, and while he's slowed a bit lately, he's still posted 60+ yards and/or a touchdown on 10 of 14 games. Take note, though: this outlook may hinge upon McMillan's health, as he battled an ankle injury all week. If he can't suit up, the ceiling will dip, though Young carries a solid floor in this matchup anyway.
The Buccaneers still stand as one of 2025's best definitions of a "pass funnel" defense. They're as strong against the run as anyone, which forces opponents to test them significantly through the air. And until the Buccaneers shore up their secondary, they'll continue to give up passing production in chunks. Eight of their 14 opponents have thrown for 270+ yards, some posting season highs in this high-volume matchup. That includes Falcons backup Kirk Cousins, who struggles to get the ball to the chains at his age, but went a dazzling 30 of 44 for 373 and 3 touchdowns in last week's furious rally. Cousins did that without top wideout Drake London, merely beating the Tampa Bay secondary to the spot with smart, anticipatory throws. Beyond Jamel Dean, there is still an alarming lack of coverage talent on the back end. That will only compound with Zyon McCollum, the team's second-best cover man, out for the year. Special-teams types like Kindle Vildor and Christian Izior will feature heavily down the stretch, and opponents will be prepared.
Kansas City at Tennessee