Daniel Jones' Hot Start: The Gut Check No. 662

Daniel Jones, Tyler Warren, and the Indianapolis Colts offense are off to a hot start. Will it last?

Matt Waldman's Daniel Jones' Hot Start: The Gut Check No. 662 Matt Waldman Published 10/15/2025

© Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images Daniel Jones

Daniel Jones Has Been A 2025 Headline

It wasn't a likely headline, either. Flash back to this summer, and the media believed Daniel Jones had a slight edge over Anthony Richardson Sr. in a tight quarterback competition. Richardson dinged his surgically repaired shoulder, and Jones wasn't off to an impressive start in camp. 

It appeared there was wiggle room for Richardson to work his way back into the starting role. Heading into the season, I was far from the only observer considering the possibility of Richardson taking over for Jones midseason if Jones performed according to his worst tendencies.  

No need. The Colts are 5-1, atop the AFC South, and Jones is fantasy football's QB7. His stats tell an encouraging story (ranking among QBs in parentheses): 

  • 71.7 percent completion percentage (5th)
  • 1,502 passing yards (7th)
  • 8.34 yards per attempt (7th)
  • 8 passing TDs to 1 INT
  • 4 rushing TDs (tied for 2nd)

Jones is spreading the ball around effectively. Michael Pittman Jr has returned to fantasy WR2 production. Josh Downs has delivered WR3 value for the past four weeks. Alec Pierce is making timely plays.

And, of course, there's fantasy football's TE2, Tyler Warren. The rookie leads all tight ends in yardage (370), and he's averaging a healthy 12.8 yards per reception. 

Six games into the season, it appears Daniel Jones is well on his way to salvaging his career as a franchise starter, joining Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and Geno Smith as successful reclamation projects. 

Is This Sustainable?

Can we count on Daniel Jones, Tyler Warren, and the Colts' passing offense to sustain their fantasy production this year? The short answer: Yes. 

The more detailed answer: It's likely Jones and Warren will continue to deliver, but expect opponents to develop savvier game plans to limit them a little more often than we've seen thus far. 

We may also see teams that stifle Jones and Warren, because there are repeat moments on film that opposing teams could leverage against them. Moments where Jones and the Colts' offense were fortunate to escape unscathed. 

While I'm still optimistic because the Colts don't have a ruthless schedule ahead, we've seen bigger collapses before. Every year, there are hot starts that prove illusory.

The Rams and Broncos are the only good teams Daniel Jones, Tyler Warren, and company have faced, and they should have lost both contests. It's why we should always scout players with the worst-case scenario in mind. All players have flaws and fault lines in their games.

If enough factors conspire to exacerbate these weaknesses, a collapse in production can occur. In the case of Daniel Jones, Tyler Warren, and the Colts, the collapse may be unlikely, but it will help us anticipate when to make a change if these conspiring factors emerge. 

Daniel Jones And Tyler Warren: The Good

Tyler Warren: Schemed to the Max

Arguably Daniel Jones' most productive target, Tyler Warren was considered the consensus TE1 in the 2025 NFL Draft class. Warren earned comparisons to George Kittle.

I thought those comparisons fell flat. Kittle wins man-to-man timing routes that wide receivers run. Warren doesn't exhibit enough of that skill set to earn this comparison.

I saw a player more along the lines of Tucker Kraft -- a receiver who could win up the seams and in the flats. Scheme them open and they'll rumble. Valuable, yes. Strong production potential, but not elite without heavier scheming.

A lot of Tyler Warren's offense and wins for Daniel Jones are from good offensive play design that's geared solely to create easy throws to a wide-open Warren. 

Warren and Daniel Jones have executed well, but it would be foolish to compare Warren's individual skills to those of his peers at the top of his class and make definitive conclusions about talent. What we have learned is that Warren landed on the team that did the best job of scheming their option to earn immediate production. 

If your rookie tight end prospect has a baseline level of viable talent, the Colts' scheme will maximize that player's performance. Harold Fannin Jr., Colston Loveland, and Mason Taylor would have thrived with these looks, and all three have the versatility as blockers and receivers to earn the variety of alignments we've seen the Colts use with Warren. 

This point isn't intended to downplay Warren. Dynasty GMs should take this as a message not to downplay the other three I just mentioned. 

Daniel Jones: Great Looks and Moments of Excellence

All quarterbacks benefit from schemed plays that only have one designed target, not just Daniel Jones.  Still, Jones' play-action work has always been the strength of his game, and leveraging Jonathan Taylor to create huge openings for Tyler Warren with no progression reads needed on those targets is an ideal situation for any quarterback, especially Jones. 

Daniel Jones had a lot of weaknesses at Duke that made him a questionable first-round pick: 

  • A penchant for predetermining reads regardless of the coverage's position on the field.
  • Lackluster footwork that was pervasive with drops and pocket management.
  • Missing notable pre-snap safety rotations.
  • Frequent miscommunications with receivers on route adjustments.
  • Lapses with his pocket clock -- moving away from initial pressure and thinking the clock was completely reset for him to work downfield, which led to unnecessary sacks.

The scouting community was split on Daniel Jones because they were semi-logo scouting the fact that Jones came from renowned quarterback coach David Cutcliffe's program. The ones who endorsed Jones thought he was a "Cutcliffe Guy" like the Mannings. 

However, the other half of the community learned that Cutcliffe did nowhere near the level of work with Daniel Jones as Duke's head coach as he did with the Mannings when he was specifically a quarterback coach. The Duke program marketed the Cutcliffe connection to help Jones elevate his draft stock so they could draw recruits with that first-round value. 

What we learned from Daniel Jones' career in New York is that he was as tough as he was at Duke. He can take a hit to deliver the ball. He's not afraid to run, and he's athletic enough to cause moderate problems for opposing defenses. 

We also saw a lot of starter-caliber moments from Jones, sandwiched by inconsistency as a processor of the information pre-snap and post-snap. After six weeks with the Colts, we're seeing similar things with the ball bouncing towards the starter-caliber moments more often. 

This might be one of the best throws I've seen all season -- not just from Daniel Jones. It's daring, thoughtful, and accurate. 

Here's another...

Even some of the misses have a good foundation. 

The toughness and pocket movement are working well in combination right now. 

This is good placement from Daniel Jones on top of the pocket fearlessness. 

Jonathan Taylor's presence also generates a lot of Cover 1 -- man-to-man looks to stop the run with one high safety -- and that's giving Daniel Jones awesome looks for big plays. 

Daniel Jones may be the navigator of this offense,  but Taylor is the engine. Two-tight-end looks optimize Taylor's skills on the ground, allowing the offense to shift from these alignments into empty sets, making the defense easier to read. 

Jones is a beneficiary, and he's doing a great job of leveraging opportunities. As you can see, he's even had some wow-plays as a thrower and decision-maker. 

Unless Taylor and/or Warren get hurt or the offense suffers multiple injuries, the scheme should continue to set up Daniels Jones to see a lot of Cover 1. This will give Jones a lot of deep passing opportunities as well as favorable run/pass options on play-action boots.

We'll also see a lot of Cover 1 and Cover 0 (man coverage and everyone else blitzing) in the low red zone (inside the 10) that should favor Daniel Jones and this offense. 

Daniel Jones and Tyler Warren: The Bad

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Daniel Jones tyler warren Indianapolis Colts QBs Indianapolis Colts TEs the gut check Matt Waldman 2025 fantasy football Week 7
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