The Top 10: Week 9

Featuring fantasy-oriented insights rooted in film-driven football analysis to help GMs manage their fantasy squads.

Matt Waldman's The Top 10: Week 9 Matt Waldman Published 10/28/2025

© Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images fantasy

MISSION

The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between the fantasy and reality of football analysis.

The goal of this feature is to provide you with actionable recommendations that will help you get results. The fundamental mission is to get the process right.

While it's a rush to see the box score or highlights and claim you made the right calls, doing so without a sustainable process makes success ephemeral.

The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).

My specialty is film analysis. I've been scouting the techniques, concepts, and physical skills of offensive skill talent as my business for nearly 20 years.

The Top 10 will give you fantasy-oriented insights rooted in football analysis that have made the Rookie Scouting Portfolio one of the two most purchased independent draft guides among NFL scouts. This is what Atlanta Falcons Area Scout and former SEC recruiter Alex Brown has told me over the past 8-10 years.

Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece, available every Monday night during the season, is a viable source of information to kick-start your week as a fantasy GM. 

The theme this week...Details aren't nitpicking, but the difference between the players considered the best in the world. 

STRAIGHT, NO CHASER: WEEK 8'S CLIFF'S NOTES

  1. Caleb Williams is not remotely bad: You can skip over to this week's Gut Check, which is posted early, for details.
  2. TreVeyon Henderson: Not so fast...the Patriots schemed a good game plan that may not repeat itself.
  3. Kayshon Boutte: Don't be surprised if he's no worse than a high-end fantasy WR2 by 2026.  
  4. Roman Wilson will earn free agent touts this week. Take a chance, but with a dose of skepticism.
  5. The 49ers' pass defense is a massive bull's eye in the middle of the field, and the Texans hit it repeatedly.
  6. Mason Taylor is one of the two most complete tight ends in this draft class. Can he get a QB? 
  7. Justin Herbert: A mobile quarterback who moves with purpose in the pocket. He's a great model for...
  8. Jaxson Dart: A mobile quarterback who moves because he's reacting in the pocket. 
  9. Atlanta's Offense didn't falter because of Kirk Cousins. Blame the offensive line and the ground game.
  10. Keep an eye on rookie WR Arian Smith: He has better hands than characterized and legitimate fantasy upside.

1. Caleb Williams Is Not Remotely Bad

NFL Red Zone is entertaining. It's a limited analysis tool, at best, and I'm being generous. 

If Red Zone were Cliff's Notes for the NFL, it would only contain a plot summary. If there was a Red Zone for songs, it would only supply the chorus for any tune you accessed on Spotify. 

If Red Zone were a restaurant, it would be an ice cream shop with three flavors. If it were a quarterback prospect, it would be Zach Wilson in shorts and a t-shirt throwing against air and wowing the ratings facilitators of NFL Draft coverage into a frenzy. 

I've got a good slogan for Red Zone-based analysts: Fake it til you make it! 

Red Zone is fun, but it skews perspective. A player can have a strong performance between the 20s, but if his team isn't performing well in the red zone, that player can look a lot less promising than the reality of his game. 

When I hear about the commentary regarding Caleb Williams, I suspect too many people are watching Red Zone. 

He's bad, and Ben Johnson knows it. His performances are uneven. He's not consistent enough. 

Wrong. Wrong. And, yes, wrong.

Folks are looking at his 61 percent completion percentage, 7.3 yards per attempt, and his 9 passing touchdowns as solid but not in the same tier as fellow rookies Drake Maye or Bo Nix this year. These comparisons are as consequential as basing player analysis on Red Zone. 

Nix is in Year 2 of their offenses with legitimate offensive architects on staff. Maye's experience working under center was in an offense that had better fundamental structures in place that you'd expect from an NFL scheme. 

While the coaching wasn't ideal for Maye and his receivig corps didn't have the names we saw in Chicago, Williams' experience was an abject disaster. The Bears had a lot of plays where there wasn't a drop plan tied to the routes. 

A quarterback's timing, accuracy, placement, decision-making, and pocket movement are all predicated on footwork. If there's no clear starting point with the opening drop, the timing with everything else is thrown off. 

This was such a problem with the Titans' offense this year that Brian Callahan got fired.

The Bears offensive architect last year was the equivalent of a waiter posing as an architect. Comparing Maye's bad scheming to Williams' situation is like comparing a grape to a kumquat. 

Fake it 'til you make it! 

Let's look at passer rating in key situations -- 3rd/4th down, 4-12 yards to go. Plays where the team expects a good quarterback to shine. 

How's that for a dose of reality? In this week's Gut Check, which is out early this week, I'm going to show you 17 of Williams' 38 throws from the Ravens game. Out of those 38 decisions, there was only one truly bad decision. 

Williams, despite the Bears missing four defensive backs -- all starters or high-end contributors -- did a good job of keeping the Bears competitive while demonstrating a lot of maturity, craft, and dynamic play-making against the Ravens. 

Caleb Williams is not remotely bad. If anything, he's a dynasty value if the Red Zone watchers are buying the narrative. Williams is a starter in many re-draft leagues as QB13 on Sunday and for the season thus far -- and doing it in a new offense. 

We forget he endured a disaster in 2024 -- a disaster that none of his rookie peers would have handled any better, much less survived it. 

Follow this link for more... 

2. TreVeyon Henderson's Emergence? Not So Fast . . . 

TreVeyon Henderson got featured on Red Zone! Cue the hope-filled soundtrack for fantasy analysts, everywhere! 

Just when I thought I got out . . . 

Pull the needle off your hipster record players, folks. The Patriots had a good game plan for the Cleveland Browns' pair of defensive ends. It may work against other teams, but you might want to quell some of the enthusiasm. 

New England opened interior creases early, then played games with the Browns' edge defenders by making them guess wrong more often than they tried to manhandle them. Or, like the play below, made the ends think they were winning one match-up easily but getting baited into a double team. See the right end on this play. 

Two plays later, Josh McDaniels played off that run design above to get Henderson outside. Note how they didn't even block the right DE. 

Let's run a little option, shall we? Again, the right end isn't blocked. They're making the end diagnose the correct outcome, and the end is losing. 

Here's a variation of the play above. Similar alignment but no option involved. The DE guesses wrong, again. 

The Patriots will use Henderson in the coming weeks, and some of the plays from above will likely generate more success. Don't expect the efficiency to be as great as it was last week. 

Also, remember this play here. 

In addition to Rhamondre Stevenson being the best inside running back on the team, he protects the franchise better than anyone on the depth chart. 

TreVeyon Henderson is Mr. Outside. Rhamondre Stevenson is Mr. Everything.  

3. Kayshon Boutte: The Patriots' Future WR1...Heresy! 

Yeah, yeah, I'm a heretic. What else is new? Don't look now, but Kayshon Boutte is fantasy WR29. Stefon Diggs WR26. 

Since Week 5? Boutte is the fantasy WR10. Diggs? WR13. 

It's only a month of work, but the work on the field tells the story better. Boutte is a key target on third downs, late in games, and as a vertical option. 

The targets may not be as plentiful as the fantasy accountants need to justify using him as an every-week starter (yet). Still, the gravity of the targets tells a compelling story of Boutte's likely trajectory. 

As a talent coming out of LSU, Boutte was a top-five wide receiver in his class.

The biggest issue with Boutte as a draft prospect was his immaturity off the field. Boutte has admitted as much in interviews this year. The work he has put into being a professional shows. 

He can play all three wide receiver roles, he's young, and Drake Maye trusts him. If I were the Patriots, I'd move Boutte around or make him a slot-flanker specialist like Michael Thomas was in New Orleans --- especially if Kyle Williams can grow into a reliable split end. 

Stefon Diggs may edge out Boutte this year as a producer, but the end is near for Diggs. Boutte is just getting started. 

4. Roman Wilson: Take a Chance (But Remain Skeptical)

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Tags:
Caleb Williams Chicago Bears QBs the top 10 Matt Waldman the gut check Week 9 fantasy football NFL Kayshon Boutte Justin Herbert Jaxson Dart Arian Smith Mason Taylor TreVeyon Henderson Roman Wilson Fred Warner Kirk Cousins
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