Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season -- and into the offseason.
If you're new to the site, I write two columns each week during the regular season: The Fantasy Notebook and In and Out, in which I choose one player at each position I'm "in" on, a player I feel will outperform expectations, and one player at each position I'm "out" on. The "outs" are players I feel will fall short of their projected totals.
This week seems like a perfect opportunity for a mashup of the two.
'Twas the Week Before Football
And all the hard work you've put in this offseason to prepare for your final drafts is about to come to fruition. With the first kickoff less than a week away (the Patriots and Seahawks throw down in Seattle next Wednesday night), it's time to narrow our focus.
I realize many of you, like me, have been drafting a while. Now that we're down to the drafts that matter most, a quick guide based on Average Draft Position (ADP) could be helpful.
I'm going to go through the first 10 rounds of ADP and pick (at least) one player I'm in on and one that I'm out on at each price level.
You might agree with my choices. You might not. But I hope you use the explanations for my choices to help dial in your processes for making yours.
Let's get the ball rolling at the top of the draft . . .
Round 1
1. RB1 Jahmyr Gibbs, DET
2. RB2 Bijan Robinson, ATL
3. WR1 Ja'Marr Chase, CIN
4. WR2 Puka Nacua, LAR
5. RB3 Christian McCaffrey, SF
6. WR3 Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA
7. WR4 Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET
8. RB4 Jonathan Taylor, IND
9. RB5 James Cook III, BUF
10. WR5 Justin Jefferson, MIN
11. WR6 CeeDee Lamb, DAL
12. RB6 Chase Brown, CIN
In: Everybody
The first round is unique. We're drafting all 12 of these players at their perceived ceiling. It's the only round where we draft with an eye solely on a player's ceiling. We're not looking for any of these players to come up short. Even if I have the order slightly different, I see all of them as viable first-round picks, except . . .
Out: Justin Jefferson
This isn't about talent. It's about circumstances. And even though Jefferson's overall situation is better than it was last year, it's also good to remember what happened: Jefferson finished the 2025 season as WR20, but his 11.9-point-per-game average -- which ranked 30th -- better reflects his struggles.
But we've seen how high the ceiling is, too.
Jefferson has played 16 games (or more) in five of his six NFL seasons. In the four before last year, he's finished no worse than WR6. He's finished better than that in the other three seasons. We also know that Jefferson has been a fantasy WR1 with and without quality QB play.
What he does need is a quarterback he can connect with.
Is Kyler Murray that guy?
As Footballguy Jason Wood notes, Murray isn't a proven commodity and almost never produced top-10 fantasy receivers in Arizona. Jefferson also made Sigmund Bloom's All Ten-Foot Pole Team because the wideout will have a quarterback in Murray, who "was worse than Jacoby Brissett last year? No thanks."
Also . . . Puka Nacua, until his off-field issues are fully resolved, is going to be a candidate here. Let your personal risk tolerance (being mindful that a one- to two-game suspension seems like the worst-case outcome) be your guide.
Round 2
13. RB7 Saquon Barkley, PHI
14. RB8 De'Von Achane, MIA
15. RB9 Omarion Hampton, LAC
16. RB10 Ashton Jeanty, LV
17. RB11 Ken Walker III, KC
18. WR7 A.J. Brown, NE
19. TE1 Brock Bowers, LV
20. RB12 Derrick Henry, BAL
21. WR8 Drake London, ATL
22. WR9 Nico Collins, HOU
23. WR10 George Pickens, DAL
24. TE2 Trey McBride, ARI
In: A.J. Brown
I've made no secret of my desire to land Brown in every draft I'm in. Yes, part of it is the whole narrative. Unhappy with his situation in Philadelphia, Brown (mostly) kept his head down and continued working.
Now he lands in New England with a coach, Mike Vrabel, whom he loves from their time together in Tennessee, on a Patriots squad that made it to the Super Bowl last season.
But it's not just the vibe.
The on-field portion is equally appealing. Brown combines big-time speed, size, and strength with contested-catch ability. He's also been among the NFL's premier deep threats over the past four years. According to CBSSports.com's Zachary Pereles, Brown's 33 receptions on throws of 25-plus yards downfield are tied with George Pickens for the most in the NFL over that span.
Meanwhile, Patriots quarterback Drake Maye had the NFL's fifth-highest deep-throw rate and the league's second-highest explosive-play rate and air-yards-per-attempt rate last year. His massive leap as a downfield passer fueled his overall improvement.
Brown delivered two WR5 finishes as an Eagle (in 2022 and 2023). I think he can match and even best that in New England.
Also . . . I'm fine if you prefer the leverage over the field that Brock Bowers offers here. I also love Derrick Henry, so depending on how the round plays out, there are a pair of preferred options after Brown goes.
Out: Saquon Barkley
Bloom contends we're still drafting the 2024 version of Barkley. In case you missed it, Barkley racked up 351.2 fantasy points in 2024, the second most among all running backs. His 22 points per game were the most in the league.
Last year, those numbers fell to 232.3 total points and 14.5 per game.
Barkley finished as RB15 -- well off his RB2 Average Draft Position (ADP) last summer, when he was selected with the third pick overall.
This year, with Sean Mannion taking over as offensive coordinator, Barkley will be running a lot more outside zone with the quarterback under center. That second point shouldn't be overlooked.
As Dave Spadaro of the team's official website noted, for a running back, having the quarterback under center versus having the quarterback in the shotgun presents a new way of conducting business. In the world of precision and fundamentals, it can be a seismic change.
Barkley has to evolve. Can he? Maybe.
But for me, the price to find out is higher than I want to pay, especially with the other options available in this round and the next.
