In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll fade some big names -- yes, even ones that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at nine players: four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In), four that don't hit quite right (the Out), and an Outlier of the Week.
First, let me stress: if any of my choices make you uneasy, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In and Out Accountability
I use this spot to review my previous week's results. As I suggested in this week's Fantasy Notebook, it's a humbling game we play. Last week wasn't ideal, but it was better than some previous weeks. Was I able to take care of business in Week 8?
Let's find out, shall we?
- I was in on (former) Cardinals QB Jacoby Brissett, who was projected for a QB10 finish with 18.2 points in a great matchup against a generous Cowboys defense. I said he would finish inside the top 10. Did I mention it's a humbling game we play? After Brissett was benched in favor of Gardner Minshew II late in the third quarter, he ended up as QB26 with 3.5 points. In my defense, if you add Brissett's 3.5 points to Minshew's 19.5, the duo finished as QB6. Alas, that's not how this works. I start with a miss. ❌
- I was out on Bears QB Caleb Williams, who was projected for a QB9 finish with 18.8 points, in a tough matchup against the Seahawks. After watching Seattle shut down Patrick Mahomes II and the Chiefs' offense the week before, I predicted Williams would fall short of that projection. It wasn't a bad night for Chicago's offense, but they did most of their damage on the ground, and Williams finished as QB17 with 14 points. A hit. ✅
- I was in on Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson, who was projected to finish as RB20 with 13.4 points. With TreVeyon Henderson sitting out, I felt Stevenson had top-10 upside going up against the Dolphins' defense in Miami. That wasn't the case. Stevenson finished as RB24 with 12 points. Another miss. ❌
- I was out on Titans RB Tony Pollard, who was projected to finish as RB20 with 14.0 points facing a stingy Bengals run defense in Cincinnati. I thought that projection was reasonable enough, but concerns about potential game script problems led me to say he'd fall outside RB2 territory. Pollard finished as the RB3 overall. Good grief, two weeks after Jameson Williams turned in a WR1 overall performance as my "out" at his position, I'm just relieved that Pollard wasn't the RB1. Still, a miss. ❌
- I was in on Commanders WR Stefon Diggs, who was projected for a WR21 finish with 12.4 points. With Terry McLaurin's season over, I predicted Diggs would finish inside the top 20. But Jayden Daniels spread the ball around more than I expected, and Diggs wound up as WR24 with 12.7 points. Yet another miss. ❌
- I was out on Browns WR Denzel Boston, who was projected to finish as WR33 with 10.9 points. It was a fair estimate given the rookie's recent dip in production, but I thought it could have gone further. I predicted Boston would fall outside WR3 territory. He finished as WR38 with 9.7 points. Finally! Another hit. ✅
- I was in on Falcons TE Kyle Pitts Sr., who was projected to finish as TE14 with 9.6 points. I predicted he would finish in TE1 territory. I was convinced this was a slam dunk -- like I was being conservative in my estimate. But thanks to a Michael Penix Jr. implosion in a typhoon-level rainstorm, it wasn't even close. Pitts finished as TE41 on a day Penix finished with negative fantasy points. Not my guy's fault, but still a massive miss. ❌
- I was out on Lions TE Sam LaPorta, who was projected for a TE4 finish with 11.6 points. I felt that was an aggressive call given the tough matchup against the Vikings. I was also worried it didn't leave much margin against the field. Turns out the latter didn't matter because the former was enough. LaPorta finished as TE25 with 6.5 points. A hit. ✅
- As for my Outlier of the Week, Eagles WR Makai Lemon? The rookie's Footballguys projection called for a WR28 finish with 11.8 points. I thought the matchup against Washington was favorable enough that he'd land in WR2 territory for a second straight week. Despite garnering a team-high nine targets, Lemon came up short, finishing the week as WR31 with 11.7 points. One more miss. ❌
Well then. It wasn't my worst week this season, but 3-6 isn't going to help me reach my goal here. Of course, I have nobody to blame but myself -- not for putting faith in Brissett in a great matchup, but for ignoring Pollard's momentum, overlooking the weather in Tampa, and counting on an Eagle to help me achieve my objective.
Here's where we stand after Week 8:
Week 8: 3-6
Season: 29-43
The goal here, whether it's realistic or not, is to finish at .500 or better on my predictions. After a hit-or-miss eight-week run, I'm sitting at .403, and I have a big hill to climb to hit my objective.
And with that, let's dive into Week 9.
Week 9 Picks at a Glance
In: Bo Nix, Ashton Jeanty, Keenan Allen, Sam LaPorta
Out: Tyler Shough, Josh Jacobs, DJ Moore, Trey McBride
Outlier to Watch: Greg Dulcich
Quarterback
In: Bo Nix, Denver @ Carolina
As ESPN.com's Eric Karabell reminded readers, Nix has gone from a borderline QB1 option on draft day to currently being QB18, averaging just 14.1 fantasy points per game.
We know he's capable of more.
Nix averaged 17.7 fantasy points per game last season en route to a QB9 finish. He was QB8 as a rookie, with an average of 18.6 points per game.
Karabell notes that volume was key, as nobody attempted more passes over that time, but Nix also ran for 786 yards and nine touchdowns.
Let's remember that Nix broke his ankle in a January playoff game, which could explain his slow start. But he broke off an impressive 62-yard touchdown run in Week 7, and he has thrown downfield more in the past two weeks.
Nix has eight pass plays of 20-plus yards in the past two weeks; he had only 11 of them during the first six games. Nix now has nine touchdown passes against three interceptions, and he hasn't had one picked off since Week 3.
This week, he has an opportunity to take another step forward.
Carolina has allowed an average of 27.6 points per game to opponents, which is fifth-worst in the NFL. The Broncos, meanwhile, have scored 28 or more points in consecutive games, and that streak could continue this weekend.
According to CBSSports.com's Jamey Eisenberg, the Panthers have allowed three of the past five opposing quarterbacks to score at least 22.5 fantasy points, including Jordan Love in Week 8.
While Denver is almost certain to lean heavily on Jonah Coleman and the rushing attack, I still see some appeal here.
Bottom line: Nix's Footballguys projection calls for a QB15 finish with 17.2 points. I predict Nix will exceed that QB15 spot this week.
Out: Tyler Shough, New Orleans vs. Cleveland
As Footballguy Devin Knotts noted in his Week 9 Passing Matchups, Shough has been better than his team's 2-5 record suggests. He's completing 67 percent of his throws, and he leads the league with eight passing touchdowns in goal-to-go situations.
Without much help from a ground game averaging 3.5 yards per carry, the pressure is on Shough to keep the offense on schedule.
That's made Shough a fantasy adventure over the last three games, as he's been held below 14 fantasy points twice, including one game with negative points. That's quite a decline for a player who was QB3 with an average of 25.1 points per game after the first three contests this season.
This week, he takes on a Cleveland defense that ranks sixth league-wide against the pass at 197 yards per game. According to Knotts, only two opponents have reached 250 yards. The Browns have allowed 11 touchdowns, but only five have come over the past five weeks.
Cleveland is allowing the seventh-fewest points per game to QBs. They've allowed just two quarterbacks to score more than 13.6 fantasy points.
According to NFL.com's Matt Okada, in his three games against bottom-half fantasy matchups this year, Shough has averaged just 9.9 fantasy points per outing (while averaging 24.1 per game in his other four).
Let's start tempering expectations.
Bottom line: Shough's Footballguys projection calls for a QB10 finish with 18.5 fantasy points. I expect Shough to finish outside of QB1 territory.