In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll fade some big names -- yes, even ones that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at nine players: four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In), four that don't hit quite right (the Out), and an Outlier of the Week.
First, let me stress: if any of my choices make you uneasy, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In and Out Accountability
I use this spot to review my previous week's results. It can be a painful experience, even on good weeks. It's downright miserable after other weeks. So far this season?
Week 1 wasn't bad. Week 2 was better. Could I carry it over into Week 3?
Here's how it looked:
I was in on Chargers QB Justin Herbert, who rewarded my confidence in him with another resounding dud. His Footballguys projection called for a QB16 finish with 17.3 points. I said a favorable matchup in a game with shootout potential would allow Herbert to outperform both those numbers. That didn't happen. Herbert finished as QB22 with 12.7 points. A miss. ❌
I was out on Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence, who was projected to finish as QB11 with 17.9 points. Again, I said Lawrence would fall short of both those numbers. Although he finished as QB14, Lawrence scored 19.8 points, almost two full points more than his projected total. Another miss. ❌
I was in on Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard, whose Footballguys projection -- RB15 with 15.4 points -- seemed conservative to me. I predicted he would exceed both those numbers. He finished as RB12 to meet half the requirements, but as it did with Lawrence, the score did me in as Hubbard was held to 15 points. Half a hit doesn't cut it. This was yet another miss. ❌
I was out on Buccaneers RB Bucky Irving, who was projected to finish as RB16 with 14.9 points in a tough matchup against the Vikings. I said he'd fall outside the top 20 at the position. Irving obliged, finishing as RB35 with 7.8 points. A much-needed hit. ✅
I was in on Colts WR Josh Downs, who was projected for a WR29 finish with 11.7 points. The matchup seemed to favor the passing attack here, but it ended up being a push. Downs finished as WR29 with 12.7 points. A hit for our projection team, but for me? A miss. ❌
I was out on Broncos WR Jaylen Waddle, who, despite a tough matchup with the Rams' secondary, was projected to finish as WR13 with 15.2 points. I predicted Waddle would finish outside WR1 territory. He didn't just fall outside of the top 12; Waddle fell off the radar, finishing as WR77 with 4.4 points. A big hit. ✅
I was in on Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth, who was projected to finish as TE21 with 8.3 points in one of the most favorable matchups available at his position. I kept it realistic, predicting he would finish inside the top 15. Freiermuth was TE35 with 5.1 points. Miss. ❌
I was out on Giants TE Isaiah Likely, who was projected for a reasonable enough TE8 finish with 12.2 fantasy points. I said Likely would fall outside the top 10 at the position. Likely was TE42 with 3.3 points. Yes. A hit. ✅
As for my Outlier of the Week, Eagles WR Dontayvion Wicks was projected for a WR46 finish against the Bears with 9.7 points. I predicted Wicks would finish inside WR3 territory -- meaning WR36 or better. Instead, he doubled that to finish as WR72 with 5.2 points. Arrrrgh. Another miss. ❌
As always, I have nobody to blame but myself -- for underestimating how bad the Chargers offense is, for including specific scoring instead of sticking to overall finishes, and for believing every expected outcome when I know better.
Here's where we stand after Week 3:
Week 3: 3-6
Season: 14-13
The goal here, whether it's realistic or not, is to hit .500 on my predictions, so I feel fortunate to still have my head above water with a .519 hit rate.
And with that, let's dive into Week 4.
Week 4 Picks at a Glance
In: Matthew Stafford, Jeremiyah Love, Matthew Golden, Darren Waller
Out: Bo Nix, Javonte Williams, Deebo Samuel Sr., Dalton Kincaid
Outlier to Watch: Kendrick Bourne
Quarterback
In: Matthew Stafford, LA Rams @ Philadelphia
As NFL.com's Grant Gordon noted, Davante Adams was stellar in Denver on Sunday night. He racked up game highs of 137 yards and seven receptions, but the absence of Puka Nacua, one of the game's best receivers, was surely felt.
Nonetheless, by game's end, Stafford had 390 yards on 30-of-55 passing, but when the Rams offense lulled, it was apparent how beneficial having a second elite WR option would be.
This week, Nacua is on track to return when the Rams take on the Eagles.
Even without Nacua, Stafford has been money for fantasy managers the last two weeks. He scored 27 fantasy points against the Giants two weeks ago, and 20.9 in Denver on Sunday night. He has combined for 717 passing yards, six touchdowns, and three interceptions over that span.
Meanwhile, the Eagles gave up big performances to quarterbacks who had no business doing so. Tennessee's Cam Ward scored 20 fantasy points against Philly in Week 2, and Bears third-teamer Case Keenum put up 24.7.
There have been multiple issues for the Eagles, starting with a secondary that's blown coverages and given too much cushion to opposing receivers, and including a pass rush with just three sacks in three games, tied for 29th overall in the NFL.
To be clear: Stafford's season so far has been a mixed bag. In the Rams' lone win, he threw for 327 yards, four touchdowns, and an interception. In the two losses, he threw for a combined 545 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions.
But after Jayden Daniels (their Week 1 opponent) and Keenum each had two passing touchdowns against the Eagles, expecting Stafford, with Nacua rejoining the fray, to land multiple scoring strikes is plenty reasonable.
Bottom line: Stafford's QB12, 17.8-point Footballguys projection isn't far off the mark, but I'm expecting a little more, like a top-10 finish.
Out: Bo Nix, Denver @ San Francisco
As ESPN.com's Jeff Legwold suggested this past Sunday, Nix continues to show two personalities.
He was out of sorts in the first half of the win over the Rams, completing 6 of 12 passes for 53 yards and nearly throwing an interception. Same quarterback, different story in the second half. Nix once again bounced back despite a second-half interception.
He only passed for 186 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, but he added a rushing touchdown and two successful two-point conversions.
Thanks to that big second half, Nix broke out of a statistical slump, scoring 20.1 fantasy points and almost cracking QB1 territory (he was QB13).
The previous two weeks, Nix combined for 21.5 points while finishing as QB19 (in Week 2) and QB30 (in Week 1).
The poor showings aren't new. As CBSSports.com's Jamey Eisenberg noted, Nix has scored fewer than 20 fantasy points in six of his past nine road games going back to last year.
On Sunday, he'll go up against a 49ers defense that's allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this year -- despite allowing Jacoby Brissett to score 25.6 points last Sunday. But they held Matthew Stafford and Malik Willis to a combined 19.9 fantasy points in the first two games of the season.
Bottom line: Nix is projected to finish as QB16 with 17 points. I say he fails to reach that QB16 mark.