Slate Overview
Navigating Blowout Risk
Week 8 brings a slate full of lopsided matchups and blowout potential. Seven of the 10 games have spreads of 6.5 points or more, and only one game with a total over 46.5 is implied to be competitive. Game selection and roster construction are trickier than usual with this combination of games. When most of the scoring is expected to come from potential blowouts, you have to decide whether to chase raw points from the favorites or hunt for leverage in less certain game environments.
Riding with Vegas: If you're going to stack a heavy favorite, make sure the offense can support multiple ceiling performances. Blowouts often cap passing volume, so when building around a dominant team, focus on correlating the pieces most likely to account for positive game script, such as the primary running back and a single pass-catcher, or (to a lesser extent) the defense and running game. If you’re including the quarterback from the favored team, plan for an efficient three-touchdown day rather than a 400-yard explosion fueled by a high number of pass attempts.
On the flip side, don’t be afraid to stack underdog offenses in projected blowouts. Teams playing from behind can rack up fantasy points in garbage time, usually at low ownership. Using bring-backs from the favored team in this scenario tells a cohesive story about how the game could play out, and if it ends up following your script, your lineup is on the way to separating from the crowd.
I Know Better: In any given week, a large swath of the field builds lineups as if Vegas can’t be wrong. It's a sound approach in moderation, but it caps your ceiling in tournaments, especially on slates like this one. At least one or two games will likely defy expectations, and you want your lineups structured to capitalize on them when they do.
When trying to spot blowouts that might fail to materialize, look for favorites with volatile quarterbacks (ahem...Bengals), weak offensive lines (Bengals again), or shaky quarterbacks who can stall out drives (seriously, how are the Bengals favored by 6.5 against any NFL team?). Target underdogs capable of scoring in bunches -- teams with aggressive play-callers or concentrated passing volume that can force their opponent to keep scoring (if only the Jets fit that description against Cincinnati).
Bottom line: This week and every week, build lineups that tell a clear story. If you think a heavy favorite underperforms, lean into the underdog side or game stacks that benefit from a more competitive script. If you believe a projected blowout will turn out completely lopsided, double down on the correlated pieces that compound fantasy scoring.
Top Game Environments
DFS is less about picking players in isolation and more about targeting the games where fantasy scoring can snowball. High totals, fast pace, and exploitable defenses all create environments where multiple players can go off together. Identifying these spots is the foundation for building winning GPP lineups.
Games in bold are lower-total games with the potential for higher-than-expected scoring. Stacking these games at a higher ownership level than the field will add leverage to your lineups if they exceed their implied totals.
- Cowboys @ Broncos (-3.5) - O/U 50.5
- Buccaneers (-4.5) @ Saints - O/U 46.5
- Dolphins @ Falcons (-7) - O/U 44.5
Identifying Common Roster Construction
Understanding what your opponents are most likely to do is just as important as spotting the best plays. Common roster builds form naturally when popular players are combined into a lineup. Recognizing the "chalky" construction helps us anticipate what the majority of rosters we're up against will look like, and allows us to decide the best ways to build differently for leverage without sacrificing ceiling.
QB: DraftKings has tightened up pricing considerably since Week 6, yet this week's salaries are by far the most efficient of the season. The closest thing to a cheap and palatable quarterback option was Joe Flacco ($5,400), which would have either encouraged the field to spend up for a signal-caller or settle on Bo Nix ($6,000) if they couldn't find the cap space. Then the Saturday news cycle flipped the slate. Lamar Jackson ($6,800) is out, leaving one fewer option at the high end. Michael Penix Jr. is also reportedly a scratch, putting Kirk Cousins in play at a meager $4,400 salary. If Cousins is named the starter on Sunday morning, he becomes the clear chalk at the position. Otherwise, the crowd won't spend past Nix in the mid-range.
RB: The Dolphins' inability to defend opposing running backs reached new lows when Quinshon Judkins hung three touchdowns on them in Week 7. With Miami now tasked with containing Bijan Robinson ($8,800), it's a safe bet Atlanta's dual threat will end up the most-rostered player on the slate. While everyone would love to pair Robinson with Jonathan Taylor ($9,500) or Christian McCaffrey ($9,000), cap space disappears quickly on this slate, even in lineups with Cousins at quarterback. Most entrants will keep scrolling to the middle tier, where Derrick Henry ($6,000) projects as the top point-per-dollar play, though he loses some luster without Jackson in the lineup to keep Baltimore's offense on schedule. Rachaad White ($6,400) has a more reliable offense and better game environment than Henry, making it likely they'll split RB2 popularity down the middle.
WR: We'll see more variance at wide receiver in common builds than any other position. Most gamers will look to squeeze Ja'Marr Chase ($8,100) in alongside Robinson, leaving them to take a balanced approach with their remaining wide receiver slots. The easy choices are Chris Olave ($5,800), who trails only Chase in targets and is coming off a multi-touchdown game, and Devonta Smith ($5,900), whose target projection gets a bump with A.J. Brown already ruled out due to a hamstring injury.
TE: Even with a cheap Cousins added to the player pool, tight end is where the field will turn for value. Two-tight-end builds will be more common than usual to help squeeze Robinson and Chase together under the cap. The most likely candidates are Dalton Schultz ($3,300) and Dallas Goedert ($4,500), each of whom offers a high floor and figures to benefit from injuries to their team's top wide receivers.
Flipping the Common Build: Jamming in Taylor or McCaffrey alongside Robinson guarantees you won't feel great about every roster spot in your lineup, but if you look at your GPP roster and have high confidence in every player, chances are it lacks the uniqueness required to win anyway. Heavy running back spending means you'll need to rely on a bargain-bin quarterback besides a potentially chalky Cousins, but remember what we learned in the introduction about stacking the underdog side in a projected blowout...