Slate Overview
Threading the Needle
The Week 11 slate is wide open. Five games carry totals between 47.5 and 49.5 points, and no games are over 50. With no clear-cut shootouts, but plenty of games with blow-up potential, we're once again looking at a slate where lineup construction takes precedent above all else.
The good news is that we just had similar dynamics two weeks ago and already covered the importance of diversifying across the best game environments, targeting overlooked player combinations within them, and structuring your builds so that you're live no matter which game goes off.
This week's wrinkle is the disappearance of the middle class at wide receiver. In recent weeks, players like Rashee Rice, Drake London, and Ladd McConkey were priced in the $5,500 to $6,300 range, making it comfortable for entrants to build balanced lineups that felt safe. Now, the pricing algorithm has pushed their salaries higher than we’ve seen all season.
In addition, Jonathan Taylor, De'Von Achane, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Saquon Barkley are either on bye or unavailable on the main slate. Fewer top-shelf running backs to choose from, compounded with more efficient wide receiver pricing, should force the field to land on many of the same player combinations and roster builds.
Salary leverage will be as important on this slate as it has been all season. Pay close attention to Identifying Common Roster Construction below, and be intentional about where you pivot. Each decision is a trade-off in ceiling potential. Spend your salary where it creates the most upside, and use correlation to maximize every choice you make.
Top Game Environments
DFS is less about picking players in isolation and more about targeting the games where fantasy scoring can snowball. High totals, fast pace, and exploitable defenses all create environments where multiple players can go off together. Identifying these spots is the foundation for building winning GPP lineups.
Games in bold are lower-total games with the potential for higher-than-expected scoring. Stacking these games at a higher ownership level than the field will add leverage to your lineups if they exceed their implied totals.
- Buccaneers @ Bills (-5.5) - O/U 46.5
- Bengals @ Steelers (-5.5) - O/U 48.5
- Bears @ Vikings (-3) - O/U 48.5
- Seahawks @ Rams (-3) - O/U 48.5
- 49ers (-3) @ Cardinals - O/U 48.5
- Chargers (-3) @ Jaguars - O/U 43.5
Identifying Common Roster Construction
Understanding what your opponents are most likely to do is just as important as spotting the best plays. Common roster builds form naturally when popular players are combined into a lineup. Recognizing the "chalky" construction helps us anticipate what the majority of rosters we're up against will look like, and allows us to decide the best ways to build differently for leverage without sacrificing ceiling.
QB: Quarterback scoring projections are flatter than usual, with Lamar Jackson ($6,900) and Patrick Mahomes II ($6,800) facing difficult matchups. While that may lead some to highlight Josh Allen ($7,000) on their wishlists, the crowd is more likely to pay down at the position. Jacoby Brissett ($4,900) has four straight games with 20-plus DraftKings points, and he faces an injury-depleted 49ers defense. His recent reliability should make Brissett the consensus punt-play, just ahead of J.J. McCarthy ($5,200) and Aaron Rodgers ($5,400), each of whom face Charmin-soft matchups.
RB: Christian McCaffrey ($9,000) is the highest projected scorer at any position. The field will try to jam him in, but his salary is difficult to fit under the cap. Rico Dowdle ($6,800), Jaylen Warren ($6,100), and Chase Brown ($5,900) are safer bets to appear in chalky lineups. All of them are moderately priced, and either facing favorable opponents or participating in potential shootouts.
WR: Fantasy football's three best wide receivers are available on the main slate. Ja'Marr Chase ($8,500), Puka Nacua ($8,700), and Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($8,900) will share ownership to some degree, but expect Chase to separate from the pack due to fond memories of his obscene 23-16-161-1 receiving line (41.1 DraftKings points) when the Bengals played the Steelers four weeks ago. Marvin Harrison Jr.'s emergency appendectomy opens up Michael Wilson ($3,800) as the field-favorite for cap relief. Two mid-priced running backs and the Chase-Wilson combination leave around $5,000 for the third WR slot. Wan'Dale Robinson ($5,500), Jauan Jennings ($5,100), and Khalil Shakir ($5,300) appear to be the usual suspects.
TE: Trey McBride ($6,300) enters Week 11 on an absolute heater and completes the chalky Brissett stack. Most of our opponents will do whatever it takes to play McBride. If they can't squeeze him in, Oronde Gadsden might be the most common Plan B. Over the last five weeks, only the Bengals have allowed more schedule-adjusted fantasy points to tight ends than the Jaguars, who take on the Chargers in Jacksonville.
Flipping the Common Build: It will come at the expense of a few projected points, but starting with a luxury quarterback and a pair of top-shelf wide receivers will be a path less traveled. Josh Allen is the easy pick at quarterback, coming off an embarrassing loss and playing in a potential shootout against Tampa Bay. From there, rostering three middle-tier running backs allows you to pay up to Chase, along with either Nacua or Smith-Njigba.