Slate Overview
Runaway or Run-It-Back?
Week 12 brings us two distinct paths to tournament-winning lineups. Detroit (-10.5), Baltimore (-13.5), and Seattle (-13.5) are heavy favorites with implied team totals of at least 27 points. We also have four games with over-unders of at least 47.5 points that are expected to stay competitive. Is the better play to target concentrated production from offenses likely to control the game, or to build around environments where both teams are forced to trade scores deep into the fourth quarter?
Fortunately, the two paths are not mutually exclusive. If you agree with Vegas on the blowouts, focus on the players most likely to account for touchdowns before the favorite takes the air out of the ball — primary running backs, No. 1 wide receivers, or a quarterback paired with a single pass-catcher. In the closer matchups, overexposure to game stacks and strategic bring-backs gives you more opportunity to capture back-and-forth game scripts.
You don't need to pick one right path, but you do need to build with intention. Allocate salary to reflect the version of the game you’re predicting, and don’t play pieces of any blowout or shootout without telling a full story.
Top Game Environments
DFS is less about picking players in isolation and more about targeting the games where fantasy scoring can snowball. High totals, fast pace, and exploitable defenses all create environments where multiple players can go off together. Identifying these spots is the foundation for building winning GPP lineups.
Games in bold are lower-total games with the potential for higher-than-expected scoring. Stacking these games at a higher ownership level than the field will add leverage to your lineups if they exceed their implied totals.
- Patriots (-7.5) @ Bengals - O/U 49.5
- Colts @ Chiefs (-3.5) - O/U 50.5
- Jaguars (-2.5) @ Cardinals - O/U 47.5
- Eagles (-3.5) @ Cowboys - O/U 48.5
- Falcons @ Saints (-1.5) - O/U 39.5
Identifying Common Roster Construction
Understanding what your opponents are most likely to do is just as important as spotting the best plays. Common roster builds form naturally when popular players are combined into a lineup. Recognizing the "chalky" construction helps us anticipate what the majority of rosters we're up against will look like, and allows us to decide the best ways to build differently for leverage without sacrificing ceiling.
QB: Patrick Mahomes II ($6,700) and Drake Maye ($6,800) will tempt the crowd at the high end, but folks couldn't resist Jacoby Brissett's ($5,300) bargain price last week. After another garbage-time-fueled GPP-winning performance by the veteran journeyman, it's a safe bet they'll go back to the well in what Vegas has pegged as a high-scoring home game against the Jaguars.
RB: The complexion of the slate makes it difficult to fit any two of Bijan Robinson ($8,500), Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,300), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($9,000), and Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,000) together under the salary cap. As a result, entrants will be forced to choose whether to spend up for an elite running back or wide receiver. It appears wide receiver will win out, thanks to the attractive salaries of potential bell-cows Chase Brown ($6,200) in the mid-range and injury fill-in Emanuel Wilson ($5,300) at the low end (keep an eye on Josh Jacobs' status leading up to game time).
WR: Smith-Njigba and St. Brown will top the wishlists of most entrants, but Rashee Rice ($7,700) and Tee Higgins ($7,100) shouldn't be far behind. Expect to see at least one of those names in common builds with the remaining wide receiver slots taken by mid-priced receivers in enticing matchups. Think DeVonta Smith ($5,600), Jameson Williams ($5,700), and Week 11 superhero Michael Wilson ($4,800).
TE: The field's desire to continue playing Trey McBride ($6,800) is the reason we won't see multiple luxury plays at running back and wide receiver in common lineups. Coming off back-to-back 30-plus point performances and facing a friendly matchup for opposing tight ends, McBride may triple the ownership of the next closest tight end.
Flipping the Common Build: Fading Brissett and paying up at quarterback may not be good enough due to the popularity of Mahomes, Maye, and to a lesser extent, Jalen Hurts ($6,600) and Lamar Jackson ($6,700) at the top salary tier. Bypassing Trey McBride is another clear path to cutting the chalky build, but it will require dumb luck for any low-priced tight end to keep up with McBride. With quarterback and tight end uniqueness essentially blocked, salary differentiation has to come from the running back or wide receiver positions. Building lineups around a pair of high-priced players at either position should get you building in a different direction than your opponents.