For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
TIPS...
In order to help you build winning rosters, let's walk through some of the observations that I have made while doing my research for DraftKings this week. As you build out your lineups on DraftKings, try to consider the following commentary, which revolves around game strategy and how we will want to take advantage of what the masses are doing when they construct their own lineups.
2019 FORMAT:
| NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
| Warren Moon | @CAR | $6,400 | 11% | Yes | «««« | 4 stars = Best GPP selections. |
| Joe Montana | KC | $8,000 | 18% | - | ««« | 3 stars = Better GPP selections. |
| Dan Marino | NYG | $4,400 | 3% | Yes | «« | 2 stars = Good GPP selections. |
| Jim Kelly | @OAK | $5,100 | 7% | - | « | 1 star = Average GPP selections. |
A new year brings a new format. In an effort to condense and enhance the value of the article, the text of Tips and Picks will be less than in years' past, but the upside is that you will now gain access to my full GPP player pool for DraftKings each and every week! For each position, I will provide Footballguys' subscribers with every player that I consider to be viable for cash games, while providing a ranking for every player that I will be drafting in my tournament lineups. The above table is an example of what you will see in the "Picks" section of this article. See below for some important bullet points regarding the new format:
- The "CROWD EXPOSURE" column is based on Steve Buzzard's Ownership Projections each week.
- The "CASH VIABLE?" column reveals to the reader which players can be considered for cash games (50/50's, double-ups, and head-to-head contests).
- The "GPP STARS" column rates players according to how I rank them in my large-field GPP contests each week:
- 4 stars: The players in which I will be most overweight on the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are my most confident plays.
- 3 stars: The players in which I like more than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are plays that I feel strongly could deliver.
- 2 stars: The players in which I will be close to the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these players reflect those that I think the public percentages are most accurate.
- 1 star: The players in which I will be exposed at rates lower than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column) OR at rates generally lower than 5% overall; these are players who merit consideration in your overall approach, but will be limited in my player pool due to game strategy reasons.
- If you have any questions on the new format, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.
...AND PICKS
Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation.
QUARTERBACKS
| NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS |
| Gardner Minshew | @OAK | $5,500 | 2% | - | «««« |
| Philip Rivers | MIN | $5,600 | 2% | - | «««« |
| Jared Goff | @DAL | $6,100 | 5% | - | ««« |
| Kyle Allen | SEA | $5,400 | 2% | - | ««« |
| Aaron Rodgers | CHI | $6,300 | 1% | - | ««« |
| Eli Manning | MIA | $5,200 | 5% | - | «« |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | ATL | $6,100 | 4% | - | «« |
| Patrick Mahomes II | DEN | $7,100 | 9% | - | «« |
| Kyler Murray | CLE | $5,600 | 9% | Yes | «« |
| Jameis Winston | @DET | $6,900 | 7% | - | « |
| Deshaun Watson | @TEN | $6,800 | 8% | - | « |
| Dak Prescott | LAR | $6,300 | 9% | Yes | « |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | @NYG | $6,200 | 4% | - | « |
| Tom Brady | @CIN | $6,000 | 4% | - | « |
| David Blough | TB | $5,300 | 2% | - | « |
QUARTERBACK QUICK TAKES:
CASH: Of the quarterbacks on the main slate, Kyler Murray is my model's most likely quarterback to achieve cash (and GPP) value this week. Murray has been nursing a hamstring issue of late and his output has reflected it, posting only 27 fantasy points over his previous pair of games; those games came against better defenses (Steelers & Rams) than he will face in the form of the Browns on Sunday, which bodes well for his fantasy prospects in a game that where we should see plentiful scoring from both teams. An alternative to Murray is to spend another $700 to get to Dak Prescott against the Rams in a game that oddsmakers are projecting to score more than 50 points. Losers of three straight and four of their previous five games, the Cowboys find themselves in 'must-win' territory against the visiting Rams. In spite of their dying quest to win the NFC East, the Cowboys have bolstered Precott's fantasy relevance this season, as he has scored < 3x value on his $6.3K salary in all-but-two games in 2019.
GPP: Gardner Minshew did not jump off the page when I started crunching numbers at the beginning of the week, but both Dede Westbrook and Chris Conley are affordably priced and look to be in good spots to deliver 4x on their respective salaries against Oakland. The result is that Minshew should be higher-owned, but he is likely to appear on less than 4% of rosters despite both Westbrook's and Conley's strong statistical promise. Feel free to grab about 3-4x the field on Minshew, stack him up with either Westbrook or Conley, and run them back with either Josh Jacobs or Darren Waller for the complete game stack. Coming off strong back-to-back games against the Cardinals and Seahawks, Jared Goff is an intriguing GPP candidate against the Cowboys in a game that Las Vegas projects to score over 50 points. Rostering Goff in a stack with your favorite Rams receiver also brings leverage against Todd Gurley, who is poised to be the third highest-owned running back on the Week #15 slate.
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