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For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.

Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.

TIPS AND PICKS

Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation. If you have questions about any of the recommendations or the process that led to them, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.

CASH GAMES

Quarterbacks: With 5 quarterbacks surpassing the $7K salary threshold and another 7 sitting in the $6K range, DraftKings is daring us to go cheap at the position in cash games this Sunday. Taking the bait, Matt Ryan and Jalen Hurts fit the mold of a value quarterback where the opportunity cost-to-risk ratio is minimal. In two of his previous three games, Matt Ryan has faced the league's second-ranked DVOA defense (New Orleans) which has limited his fantasy output, but he gets a reprieve this week against the Chargers' 26th-ranked DVOA defense that has allowed 10 out of 12 opposing quarterbacks to achieve (or surpass) 3x Ryan's Week #14 salary. Some will be swayed away from Ryan because Julio Jones will miss this game with a hamstring injury, but Russell Gage and Christian Blake have filled in nicely in the past and the Falcons likely are not going to go ground-heavy with a hobbled Todd Gurley and/or undertalented Brian Hill. In the City of Brotherly Love, the Eagles have decided to see what they have with second-round pick, Jalen Hurts, after watching Carson Wentz struggle for the entirety of the season. In relief of Wentz last week, Hurts quickly compiled 10.3 DK points in less than a half of football. The matchup against the Saints is a difficult one, but Hurts' propensity to run the ball helps elevate his scoring floor and his salary is low enough that the risk is minimal.

Running Backs: As a heavy road-favorite against the lowly Jaguars, the Titans are expected to score ~ 30 points on Sunday and Derrick Henry should be heavily involved. Henry will be popular in cash games for this reason, but he is not a must-play running back if you find that his salary negatively affects the remainder of your roster. There are nine running backs within my model that have better points-per-dollar value than Henry, so a proper build with other players could certainly be merited. That said, Henry should be mentioned in the conversation simply due to his late-season prowess and likely role in this potential blowout. At a slight discount from Henry, you will find both Aaron Jones and Austin Ekeler in the $7K range. Jones is another substantial road-favorite against the Lions, arguably the worst run defense in the league; Jones has 18+ touches in all-but-one game since he returned from injury in Week #9 and should be used heavily in this matchup. At $7K even, Ekeler will be a crowd-favorite after catching 15 passes in his previous pair of games and demonstrating that he is the workhorse in this Chargers backfield. Lastly, Antonio Gibson has a bum toe and will miss Sunday's game against the Niners, which means that we should see a combination of Peyton Barber and J.D. McKissic in the Washington backfield. McKissic is the play in DraftKings' full-PPR scoring system, as Alex Smith has demonstrated on many occasions across his career that he will gladly dump outlet passes to his running backs, including last week when McKissic collected 10 receptions against the Steelers. One quick note: Do not play McKissic on FanDuel where touchdowns are more important because Washington will likely feed Peyton Barber inside the redzone on most plays. SUNDAY AM UPDATE: Shortly after this article posted on Saturday, we learned that Myles Gaskin was diagnosed with COVID-19 and will miss today's game (and likely next week's game). With Salvon Ahmed (shoulder) and Matt Breida (COVID) also unavailable, this leaves DeAndre Washington with all the work he can handle. Our David Dodds projects Washington with 15 touches and there is a non-zero chance that number could get as high as 20 touches with the right gamescript. Washington's salary is only $4.0K, which makes him a must-play in cash game formats on DraftKings (and on FanDuel according to Devin Knotts). In tournaments, his viability will be contingent on how popular he gets with the masses towards lineup lock, but I like him up to ~ 15-20% crowd exposure; if he starts to trickle beyond that plateau, you should begin to think about going underweight with your overall exposure (in tournaments).

Wide Receivers: The one expensive player we should try to cram into cash game lineups this Sunday is Davante Adams. Honing in on his 28th birthday, Adams is having a career season (13 touchdowns and 1,000+ yards in only 10 games) and is locked into Aaron Rodgers' radar. Having scored 11 touchdowns across his previous 7 games, Adams is tough to ignore in all DFS formats. In Los Angeles, Calvin Ridley should benefit from Julio Jones' absence, but will absorb shadow coverage from ProFootballFocus' #12-ranked cornerback, Casey Hayward. The personnel matchup might scare some folks away from Ridley, but Hayward's PFF ranking does not match with his recent performance--before last week's shutout against the Patriots, Hayward had allowed touchdowns while in coverage in four of his previous five games against far less-talented receivers than Ridley. In the $6K range, look to Brandin Cooks and/or Corey Davis as cash game considerations. Cooks' stat-line as a crowd favorite last week was mediocre, which could scare people away from him this Sunday, but do not fall prey to short-term thinking; Cooks is the best receiver on this offense and will get plenty of opportunity without Will Fuller (suspension) for the remainder of the year. Meanwhile, Davis is vibing with Ryan Tannehill, having scored double-digit fantasy points in every game since returning from injury in Week #7; his matchup against the Jags' 30th-ranked DVOA pass defense is superb at only $5.7K. Rounding things out, Jamison Crowder injured himself in practice on Thursday and did not practice on Friday, an ominous sign for his availability on Sunday. Prior to the injury, Breshad Perriman looked like a solid play in a pass-heavy contest against the Seahawks; after the injury, Perriman is a must-play for cash games and equally intriguing as a 'run-back' option with Russell Wilson-DK Metcalf (or Tyler Lockett) gamestacks.

Tight Ends: Travis Kelce is the luxury item you want in your cash games in Week #14. He has collected eight or more receptions in five consecutive games and basically plays the role of possession receiver for the league's most capable quarterback. At first glance, Kelce seems pricey at $7.4K, but if you take into account his role, his team's implied team total, his quarterback, and the volatility of the position with anybody else available, he is the preferred play at tight end. If you cannot get to Kelce's salary, however, Logan Thomas is the acceptable punt play at only $3.3K. Since Alex Smith took over at quarterback for the Football Team several weeks ago, only Terry McLaurin has been targeted more than Thomas. Likewise, Thomas has six redzone opportunities in that same span, more than any receiver on the team. Be advised, however, that Thomas is not a free square against Fred Warner than the Niners, who have been the league's stingiest defense against the tight end position.

Team Defenses: Two bad defenses in good matchups top the list of cash game options in Week #14. First, the Seahawks are on the tail-end of three stellar matchups against bad offenses. In their previous two games, they faced Carson Wentz and Colt McCoy and were able to collect 9.0 DK points in each matchup; this week, they get Sam Darnold and the underachieving Jets at home for only $3.0K. Alternatively, Dallas pops as one of the best tournament plays at the position all season within my model. The Cowboys appear to be nearly 40% to achieve 4x value on their salary, but are slated to appear in less than 10% of tournament lineups, which makes them a pristine tournament play. That said, they are also viable in cash game formats against Brandon Allen, who has thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns this season.

TOURNAMENTS

Quarterbacks: Nestled between names like Patrick Mahomes II, Russell Wilson, and Aaron Rodgers, it's easy to overlook Deshaun Watson this week against the Bears. Watson, however, is an excellent tournament option coming off back-to-back-to-back 300+ yard performances and numerous cheap receivers with which to stack him. A few hundred dollars less, Kyler Murray is a sharp play against the Giants. Murray brings double-bonus (300-passing yards and 100-rushing yards) upside to your rosters on a weekly basis and is an excellent stack option alongside DeAndre Hopkins this Sunday. In Jacksonville, Ryan Tannehill is a nice leverage play against the 30% of people who will be leaning on Derrick Henry in their lineups this weekend; if Tannehill has three touchdowns in him (the Titans are projected to score 30 points), it will have meant that those Derrick Henry lineups were dead in the water and you will have immediately jumped over a third of the field in the process. Lastly, Alex Smith is a sneaky contrarian play against the 49'ers. Smith is cheap ($5.2K), has Terry McLaurin for chunk plays, and a series of cheap receivers (Cam Sims and Logan Thomas) to move the sticks; add in J.D. McKissic's after-the-catch abilities and it would not be surprising to see Smith surpass 300 yards for the 3rd time in 6 starts.

• Sleeper: On a slate where we have the choice between Patrick Mahomes II and Daniel Jones, clicking on Jones' name for DFS purposes is enough to make one nauseous. But Jones is actually an intriguing play this week against a Cardinals defense that has yielded 20+ DK points in 5 of their previous 6 games (exception: Cam Newton in Week #12). Jones returns from a hamstring injury and has several cheap receivers from which to choose; pair Jones in double-stacks with Evan Engram and your favorite Giants' receiver before 'running it back' with DeAndre Hopkins (more on him below). Arizona is still running the fastest offense in the league per FootballOutsiders, which could create a back-and-forth affair where the cheap Giants players represent contrarian options to build around with more popular players elsewhere.
• Fade: Aaron Rodgers is not a bad play this weekend, but there are better options at his position. Rodgers has one good receiver and the dropoff thereafter is substantial; if Davante Adams has just an average game (say, 8 catches for 85 yards and a touchdown), Rodgers will likely fall short of the 30 DK points needed to justify his salary. There is a strong chance that the Packers jump to a lead in this contest, which could minimize Rodgers' involvement later in the game. Go about half the field (~ 5%) and distribute your remaining exposure to other quarterbacks with less risk (and percent-rostered).

Running Backs: Since Dak Prescott was lost to a gruesome injury in Week #5, Ezekiel Elliott has exactly zero rushing touchdowns in seven games. That scoreless streak should come to an end on Sunday against the Bengals where the Cowboys are favored in a game Andy Dalton would love to win against his former team. In Chicago, we can certainly go back to the well with David Montgomery again this week. Last Sunday, you were advised to go heavy on DMont and he delivered his best game of the season, a 2-touchdown performance with > 110 all-purpose yards. Montgomery's salary increased by $1K from last week to this, but he is still intriguing against the Texans' 26th-ranked DVOA rush defense that is allowing 31.6 DK points per game to the position (31st in NFL). Around the same salary, Josh Jacobs is going completely overlooked against the Colts despite multiple 30-touch games this season. Jacobs makes his return after missing last week with an ankle injury and could be situated for a big game on an offense that has scored 30+ points in 4 of their last 5 games. Lastly, the lightning rod that lit up this week's edition of the PowerGrid, Giovani Bernard is an excellent GPP option against the aforementioned Cowboys on Sunday. Bernard gets his seventh consecutive start while filling in for Joe Mixon (foot) and probably the best personnel matchup he has seen in that span of time. The Cowboys field the league's worst DVOA rush defense and have allowed exactly 499 rushing yards in their last 3 games. Bernard is borderline cash game-viable and is definitely one of the sharper GPP options at his position this weekend.

• Sleeper: On Friday, we learned that David Johnson would miss this weekend's game against the Bears due to him being placed on the COVID-19 list. This action relegates Duke Johnson Jr back into the RB1 role a week removed from him disappointing in the same role for the entire month of November. The matchup against the Bears' fifth-ranked DVOA defense is less than ideal but Chicago has been susceptible to running backs of late, having allowed Adrian Peterson to find paydirt twice last Sunday and the Packers' running backs to compile over 160 rushing yards a week earlier. With Johnson projected to land on only 1% of lineups, he is an excellent contrarian play that can be used to differentiate an otherwise chalky tournament lineup with popular players elsewhere.
• Fade: I hate to do it, but Derrick Henry's percent-rostered projections will likely skew past 30% by Sunday morning, which is far too high for his actual fantasy point projections. Henry needs 30+ DK points to justify his salary and crowd exposure, which basically states that he needs to score twice to get there. Across a dozen games this season, Henry has hit this threshold (30 DK points) only three times. It will not be easy, but dialing back your exposure to the big man is the right move, regardless of outcome.

Wide Receivers: Mirroring last week, the wide receiver position has a number of intriguing possibilities for GPP formats this Sunday. At the top of the salary list, it is incomprehensible to have DeAndre Hopkins at sub-$8K and only on 5% of tournament lineups. Hopkins is going to get special treatment from James Bradberry, one of the NFL's better defensive backs, but Nuk has demonstrated on multiple occasions that he is matchup-proof and should be handled accordingly for DFS purposes. Just below Hopkins is a pair of stellar receivers having lackluster seasons--both Michael Thomas and Mike Evans have seen better offensive days, but they still bring upside to your rosters and will do so with limited popularity on Sunday. Thomas has surpassed 100 receiving yards in 2 out of the 3 games that Taysom Hill has started, but has yet to score which has kept his salary reasonable despite a 38% marketshare of Hill's targets; Thomas is too talented to stay out of the endzone for much longer and he represents a golden ticket for GPPs when rostered at our projected rates. Likewise, Mike Evans is coming off a two-touchdown game and still going overlooked against the Vikings in a game that has legitimate shootout potential. In Miami, do not ignore DeVante Parker in a game where Tua Tagovailoa could be forced to throw the ball 40 times to keep pace with the Chiefs potent offense. In the Dallas-Cinci game, both slot receivers (Tyler Boyd and CeeDee Lamb) are in plus situations against smaller coverage backs (both are 4-inches taller than their coverage counterparts) which could result in leverage inside the redzone; likewise, with inferior caliber quarterback play (Andy Dalton and Brandon Allen), these low ADoT receivers could quickly produce big days against otherwise porous defenses. Near the bottom of the salary chart, do not sleep on Cam Sims, who put together a 5/92/0 stat line on 9 targets against a solid Steelers defense last week; Sims will get softer coverage this week while Richard Sherman looks to lock up with Terry McLaurin on the other side of the hashmarks.

• Sleeper: As of Saturday afternoon, our percent-rostered projections have both Russell Gage and Christian Blake on only ~ 1% of tournament rosters at DraftKings. When they are updated, however, Gage will likely elevate somewhere north of 10%, but Blake will stay quite low because he is not a household name. That said, Blake has been the beneficiary of increased snaps when Julio Jones has missed time previously this season and he is offered up at a 33% discount from Gage. The savvy play here is Christian Blake, especially if Russell Gage's popularity escalates above 10%. If Casey Hayward is able to lock down Calvin Ridley (doubtful in this author's opinion), Blake becomes an even better play due to increased action from that situation.
• Fade: Allen Robinson has not surpassed 100 receiving yards since the first month of the season and yet he is expected to be one of the more popular receivers on the slate this weekend. Given the emerging roles of Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet, as well as David Montgomery's continued heavy involvement in this offense, it is tough to justify paying nearly $7K for ARob given that only seven receivers are projected to be on more lineups. Max your exposure to Robinson in the neighborhood of 5% of your entire GPP portfolio and spend your remaining exposure in better spots.

Tight Ends: Travis Kelce is likely the best GPP option at the tight end position for reasons outlined in the Cash Games section of this article. After him, there is a sizeable dropoff to the list shared herein. Hayden Hurst merits consideration because he could see more targets with Julio Jones missing Sunday due to a lingering hamstring injury; Hurst benefits from a decent matchup against the Chargers, who have allowed tight ends to score in 9 out of 12 games this season. Elsewhere, Jordan Reed gets a chance to collect vengeance on his former team when the Football Team travels to Arizona to take on the 49ers. At the same price, Dalton Schultz is a GPP candidate against the Bengals due to his increased output of late (30 targets over the past 5 weeks). Lastly, Jordan Akins makes another appearance here despite burning many of us last week. Akins is affordably priced and will go off on a fraction of the lineups he did last week, yet he offers similar upside. Industry friend, Adam Levitan, tweeted some amazing stats on Akins after his 2/10/0 performance last week; in short, Akins is getting plenty of opportunity, but has not capitalized on it. I am willing to take one last chance on Akins in Week #14 to see if he can do so--he will likely be my second highest-rostered tight in tournaments.

• Sleeper: Hat tip to Devin Knotts, who first noted that Brandon Allen is taking a liking to Drew Sample a few weeks ago on The PowerGrid. In a pair of NFL starts, Allen has quietly connected with Sample 11 times for 89 yards; those 11 receptions represent ~ 40% of Allen's completions across those two games! If the Bengals are to keep this game close, and Vegas oddsmakers think that is the case, it would not be surprising to see Sample continue to play the role of dump-off receiver against a middle-of-the-road Dallas defense. If Sample is able to get into the endzone, he will surely hit 4-5x value on his salary at extremely low percent-rostered numbers. Do not go overboard on your exposure, however--max out somewhere between 5-7%.
• Fade: Recommended earlier here as a cash game play, you are advised to go underweight on Logan Thomas' crowd exposure in tournaments this weekend. Thomas will become the de facto punt selection because of his cash game viability, but his upside appears to be limited against a 49'ers defense that has allowed only two tight ends all season to collect double-digit fantasy points. With a number of similarly priced options on a fraction of the lineups that will feature Thomas' name, he becomes a fade candidate if his percent-rostered numbers creep much past 10%.

Team Defenses: Outside of Seattle, there is no defense that looks to be in a guaranteed matchup in Week #14. As a result, the general recommendation is to spread out your exposure and spend down at the position. Of the options, the Cowboys (discussed earlier) top my list of tournament options for reasons described previously in this article. After that, take a few chances on the Cardinals against Daniel Jones in his first game back from injury and the 49'ers against Washington and their third-string quarterback who is also missing their best running back. Opposite Dallas, there is reason to think that Andy Dalton could struggle on the road (the Cowboys are 1-6 since losing Dak Prescott earlier this season) and putting a few flyers on an underrated Eagles defense against Taysom Hill.

• Sleeper: Since reviving his role as the starting quarterback in Chicago after their Week #11 bye, Mitchell Trubisky has played admirably, completing 52 of 80 passes with 4 touchdowns (and 2 interceptions). That said, we have seen Trubisky fall apart from time to time and his 58:34 lifetime touchdown-to-interception ratio tells us that he is prone to giving the ball away to opposing defenses. With J.J. Watt still playing like the Texans are in the playoff hunt, it would not be surprising to see him terrorize Trubisky in this contest and potentially force a bad decision or two that could lead to a defensive score for the Texans. Cheaply priced and overlooked by most of the DFS community, Houston is a plus GPP selection that could end up on winning lineups this weekend.
• Fade: Washington travels to the Arizona to take on the 49'ers in a "home" game for San Francisco. It seems that the Football Team is going to be a popular defensive selection for DFS players given the team's talented defense and a juicy matchup against turnover-prone, Nick Mullens, who has thrown 22 touchdown passes versus 19 interceptions in his career. Based on their $2.8K salary, Washington's projected stats do not justify them being in nearly 10% of tournament lineups; max your exposure to 5% and place your chips at this highly volatile scoring position on teams discussed elsewhere in this article.

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