For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
TIPS AND PICKS
Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation. If you have questions about any of the recommendations or the process that led to them, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.
CASH GAMES
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Jalen Hurts | @ARZ | $5,900 |
Drew Brees | KC | $5,900 |
Quarterbacks: There's certainly merit to considering more expensive quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes II and Lamar Jackson for cash games this week, but each will cost you a sizeable premium over the options listed hereafter. With limited reliable value options, you are advised to go cheaper at quarterback with either Jalen Hurts or Drew Brees, both of whom are projected by Vegas oddsmakers to be playing from behind in contests with sizeable totals. Hurts, recommended here last week when he was only $5.1K, delivered 23.28 DK points largely due to his running prowess--the rookie ran for 108 yards on 18 carries, many of them designed, against a solid Saints defense. This week, Hurts gets the Cardinals' man-heavy defense, which plays to his physical attributes in a game with a 50-point Vegas total. Meanwhile, Drew Brees is offered at the same price against the Chiefs after surprisingly being announced as the team's starter on Friday. Brees is returning from 11 broken ribs and a punctured lung, but was reported to be 100% ready to play. It comes at an ideal time, as the Saints will need Brees' experience to keep pace with Patrick Mahomes II' electric offense. Brees should get plenty of opportunity to throw in this contest, although he will have to do without his best receiver, Michael Thomas, who will miss the game with an ankle injury. Nonetheless, Brees has made a career out of spreading the ball around to mediocre receivers and should be expected to do the same against a Chiefs defense that allowed 300+ passing yards to Teddy Bridgewater, Tom Brady, and Tua Tagovailoa over their previous 5 contests.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Alvin Kamara | KC | $7,400 |
Cam Akers | NYJ | $6,600 |
Leonard Fournette | @ATL | $4,500 |
Running Backs: After destroying the Jaguars for 215 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns last weekend, Derrick Henry is offered up at $9.5K this week against the league's worst rush defense (Detroit). Henry looks to be a lock for 100 yards and a touchdown, but his $9.5K salary is a punch to the gut when you try to build out the rest of your lineup in cash game formats, which is why his name does not appear in the above table. Instead, Alvin Kamara (who can reasonably be paired with Drew Brees) becomes the top high-end play at the running back position due to the return of Drew Brees and the aforementioned absence of Michael Thomas. Kamara should have ample opportunity to compile significant fantasy production against the Chiefs in a pass-heavy gamescript. It would not be surprising to see Kamara finish this contest with 25 touches, and half of those through the air, at a reduced price tag that was predicated on Taysom Hill leading the Saints offense. In Los Angeles, Cam Akers appears to be taking over the bellcow responsibilities for the Rams after back-to-back 20-carry games against the Cardinals and Patriots. The rookie running back has out-touched Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown 53 to 11 over that time period and is delivering on expectations the Rams had when they drafted him in the second round earlier this year. As 17-point home favorites, Akers should be heavily used throughout this contest. Rounding things out, Ronald Jones II was placed on the COVID list on Wednesday, rendering him ineligible to play against the Falcons on Sunday. Enter Leonard Fournette, a healthy scratch last Sunday against the Falcons, but offered up at $4.5K this weekend against the Ravens. Some will be scared away from Fournette due to his recent lack of usage, but Bruce Arians is likely to plug him into the "Ronald Jones II" role in this offense and keep LeSean McCoy as a passing down back due to his age, size, and overall skillset. Fournette has not had the backfield to himself this season, so his floor and upside are sizeable when juxtaposed against his paltry $4.5K salary.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Calvin Ridley | TB | $8,200 |
Brandon Aiyuk | @DAL | $6,300 |
Brandin Cooks | @IND | $6,000 |
CeeDee Lamb | SF | $4,500 |
TreQuan Smith | KC | $3,200 |
Wide Receivers: In the 4 games that Julio Jones has missed this season, Calvin Ridley has delivered solid fantasy production that includes 3x 100-yard receiving performances and another 6/50/1 stat line in a 43-6 blowout win with minimal second-half passing against the Raiders in Week #12. With Julio sidelined this weekend, Ridley is an attractive option to continue the trend against a Buccaneers defense that specializes in stopping the run (2nd DVOA rush defense). In Big D, Brandon Aiyuk looks to stay hot against the Cowboys' lackluster secondary; as fellow FootballGuy, Phil Alexander, pointed out during this week's episode of the PowerGrid, Aiyuk trails only Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams in fantasy points per game by wide receivers since Week #7. In the same price range as Aiyuk, Brandin Cooks makes a return after missing a week with multiple injuries (neck/foot) and should be heavily used in an implied pass-heavy gamescript against the Colts; Cooks was lurking in the shadows behind Will Fuller for most of the season, but will get the WR1 role for the last few weeks of 2020 and should steal production from Keke Coutee's recent uptick in fantasy relevance. Back to Dallas, all Cowboy receivers are affordably priced this weekend, but CeeDee Lamb tops the list because he should see overflow targets due to Richard Sherman locking down the left side of the field all afternoon; running out of the slot, Lamb should be consistently in the eyes of Andy Dalton and is priced fairly at only $4.5K. Lastly, TreQuan Smith will be one of the most popular cash game plays by the time lineups lock on Sunday because of the unexpected news that Michael Thomas will be sidelined with an ankle injury. Smith's usage will certainly benefit from redistribution of the nine targets per game that Thomas had been averaging and he cannot be ignored at his near-site-minimum $3.2K price tag.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Travis Kelce | @NO | $8,000 |
Cole Kmet | @MIN | $3,000 |
Tight Ends: There is no need to spend much time justifying Travis Kelce for all game formats, but in case you have not been paying attention, Kelce enters this weekend with 6 consecutive 8-catch games and 100+ yards in 5 of those contests. He is Patrick Mahomes II' possession receiver and trails only Tyreek Hill in redzone targets (21 to 20); if you can afford him without having to sacrifice too much elsewhere, he is easily the best tight end option on this (or any) slate. If Kelce's salary is prohibitive for your build, Cole Kmet appears to be finishing out his rookie season in a positive trend; the second-round pick's snap counts have steadily increased since Week #10 and he is coming off back-to-back weeks with seven targets from Mitchell Trubisky. Kmet is nowhere near as exciting as Travis Kelce, but he comes at a $5K discount from Kelce and affords you the ability to avoid taking too many chances at other positions in your cash game lineup(s).
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Seahawks | @WAS | $3,100 |
Cardinals | PHL | $2,900 |
Team Defenses: While it was not intentional, a pair of defenses slated to face teams from the NFL East are recommended for cash games this Sunday. First, the Seahawks are the preferred play against Dwayne Haskins and the Football Team in Washington. Haskins has a target of Tips and Picks since coming into the league as a first-round pick last season; his inability to find the open receiver (59.6% career completion percentage) and propensity to throw the ball to the other team (10 career interceptions versus 11 career touchdowns) are the primary drivers of his appearance in this section. Meanwhile, the Seahawks defense has been feasting on poor quarterback play for the past 3 weeks--they have scored 12-, 9-, and 9-points respectively against the Jets, Giants, and Eagles. In Arizona, you can save a few dollars from Seattle and consider the Cardinals defense against Jalen Hurts making his second NFL start. Arizona is coming off an impressive 18-point performance against the Giants last week that was headlined by 8 sacks and 3 fumble recoveries. On a projected points-per-dollar basis, no team defense has a higher expectation than the Cardinals defense (2.89x) in Week #15.
TOURNAMENTS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
Deshaun Watson | @IND | $6,800 | 4% |
Tom Brady | @ATL | $6,600 | 7% |
Matt Ryan | TB | $5,400 | 4% |
Sam Darnold | @LAR | $4,800 | 1% |
DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
Andy Dalton | SF | $5,400 | 1% |
FADE: | |||
Lamar Jackson | JAX | $7,500 | 15% |
Quarterbacks: Tucked away below the eye-candy level of Patrick Mahomes II and Lamar Jackson, but above the value options Jalen Hurts and Drew Brees, Deshaun Watson is an excellent option for tournaments on Sunday. Watson has scored rushing touchdowns twice across the past month and has surpassed 300-passing yards in 3 of 4 games in that same span. His best receiver (Brandin Cooks) returns from injury, as does David Johnson, which should force the defense to play a bit more honestly than they have had with Duke Johnson Jr struggling to fill David's shoes. In Atlanta, both quarterbacks are squarely in play for tournament formats. To be fair, Matt Ryan is a borderline cash game-viable option, but his performance last week (3 interceptions versus 1 touchdown) still lingers heavily. With the breadth of quality receivers in this game, the sizeable chance for a barnburner, and dome environment, both quarterbacks merit consideration at their respective percent-rostered numbers. Lastly, and a difficult trigger to pull, Sam Darnold gets one last shot in this column in 2020 because his receivers are cheaply priced and completely ignored by the masses; add in a gamescript that could see Darnold heave the ball 40 times, he is equally attractive as a contrarian tournament option at a sub-$5K price point.
- Sleeper: Since taking over as the starting quarterback a month ago, Andy Dalton has faced two solid defenses (Baltimore/Washington) and two average defenses (Minnesota/Cincinnati). Dalton posted an average of 14 and 19 points, respectively, in those matchups, the latter of which is fairly close to 4x value on his DraftKings salary in Week #15. The matchup against the 49ers is neither great nor terrible, as San Francisco has demonstrated flashes of each across this season. Dalton finds himself here largely because of his receivers, all of whom are cheaply priced and undervalued by the DFS community. 24 hours prior to lineup lock, all three of Dallas' wide receivers and Dalton Schultz are projected to be on fewer rosters than their likelihood to hit GPP value on their salaries. Collectively, this observation elevates Andy Dalton into deep sleeper territory, where he can act as a lineup differentiator in large-field tournaments like this weekend's $10-entry Millionaire Maker with 350K+ different rosters.
- Fade: The Baltimore Ravens are projected to score over 30 points against the Jaguars on Sunday and you can bet that Lamar Jackson will be the centerpiece of Baltimore's offense once again. Jackson exploded for 124 rushing yards against the Browns on Monday Night Football last week and is going to find himself on a lot of rosters this week, especially against a Jags defense that allowed 200+ rushing yards to Derrick Henry on 30% of rosters last weekend. Despite the plus matchup and Jackson's elite talent, he is a fade candidate this Sunday for a number of reasons: 1) The Jags may not be able to keep this game close, which could result in Lamar handing the ball to his running backs in the second half of the game, 2) Jackson's salary trails only Patrick Mahomes II ($7.9K) which means he needs to score ~ 30 DK points to justify his spot in your GPP roster, and 3) His WR1 (Marquise Brown) is still on the COVID list as this column is being written, which limits his viable stacking partners. Spend your salary elsewhere and let the fish chase the unlikely event that Jackson puts up another 100+ rushing yard performance just 6 days from the previous one.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
Dalvin Cook | CHI | $9,000 | 12% |
J.D. McKissic | SEA | $5,700 | 5% |
Kenyan Drake | PHL | $5,500 | 9% |
David Johnson | @IND | $5,100 | 5% |
DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
Raheem Mostert | @DAL | $5,800 | 2% |
FADE: | |||
Derrick Henry | DET | $9,500 | 26% |
Running Backs: Dalvin Cook, who has 22 or more touches in 10 consecutive starts and 1,555 all-purpose yards (155.5 yards per game), is projected to be on only ~ 12% of rosters on Sunday. Meanwhile, Derrick Henry, priced $500 higher than Cook with similar past performances and overall upside, will appear on nearly 3x as many rosters. This is an opportunity, folks. Recency bias is in full effect with Henry and it is Cook who should be getting your attention in GPP formats. Elsewhere, a trio of $5K running backs merit attention for tournaments. J.D. McKissic basically split carries with Peyton Barber last week in Antonio Gibson's absence. With Gibson expected to miss yet another game, one in which the Football Team is expected to be trailing throughout, McKissic has sneaky upside in DraftKings' full-PPR scoring format especially if he is able to maintain the 50% carry workload that he enjoyed last weekend. In Arizona, Kenyan Drake is going under the radar despite scoring or surpassing 100 rushing yards in 5 straight games. Drake's matchup against the Eagles is not trivial, but Kliff Kingsbury will scheme to get him the ball and his price is reasonable for his implied volume as a seven-point home favorite. Lastly, David Johnson gets his second start since the beginning of November against the Indianapolis Colts, who allowed five rushing touchdowns across their previous four games until holding Josh Jacobs scoreless in their last contest. Prior to his injury in Week #7, David Johnson scored in four games, underscoring his potential upside at a modest pricetag.
- Sleeper: With all the attention being paid to some combination of Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, and Cam Akers in tournaments, you can bet that there will be a few high-upside running backs who will go overlooked on Sunday. Of those options, Raheem Mostert is intriguing against the Dallas Cowboys' 27th-ranked DVOA rush defense. Prior to last week's win over the hapless Bengals, the Cowboys had allowed ~ 500 rushing yards across their 3 prior games. Enter Mostert, who looked iffy earlier in the week, but has been given a full-go by Kyle Shanahan on Friday. Since returning from an injury that cost him approximately six weeks midway through the season, Mostert has been the primary running back in San Francisco; he posted 44 touches across those contests, over a dozen more than the next closest running back (Jeff Wilson). We saw Mostert's explosiveness in the playoffs last year and Dallas is certainly the type of defense to allow one of those GPP-winning 80-yard scampers to the house. If he does so on ~ 2% of rosters, he will have been a difference-maker in Week #15.
- Fade: You were advised to fade Derrick Henry in this same spot last week when his percent-rostered numbers approached 35% on DraftKings at $8.7K. Henry may have felt slighted by that advice, as he delivered nearly 40 DK points against the Jaguars and now he sits atop the running back position with a $9.5K salary against the league's worst running defense, the Detroit Lions. This week, nothing has changed except for Henry's salary and the likelihood that he delivers GPP value on that salary. This is a prime example of trusting your process and making the right decision, regardless of outcome. Max your exposure to Henry in the area of 5% overall.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
DeAndre Hopkins | PHL | $7,900 | 19% |
Terry McLaurin | SEA | $6,600 | 10% |
Chris Godwin | @ATL | $6,200 | 10% |
Michael Pittman | HOU | $4,800 | 4% |
Russell Gage | TB | $4,700 | 3% |
Emmanuel Sanders | KC | $4,200 | 8% |
Michael Gallup | SF | $3,500 | 8% |
Denzel Mims | @LAR | $3,500 | 6% |
DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
Jamison Crowder | @LAR | $4,400 | 3% |
FADE: | |||
T.Y. Hilton | HOU | $5,500 | 15% |
Wide Receivers: For the second week in a row, there are plenty of directions to take at the wide receiver position in Week #15. At the top of the list (again) is DeAndre Hopkins against the Eagles. Last week, Hopkins appeared in this column and delivered 25.6 DK points on his $7.6K salary against the Giants; this Sunday, Darius Slay will do his best to shadow Hopkins around the field, but Slay has been slain this season, allowing 55 of 70 targets into his coverage to be caught (ranked 116 out of 133 cornerbacks on ProFootballFocus). In Seattle, Terry McLaurin looks to bust out after a pair of tough matchups against the Steelers' shutdown defense and Richard Sherman last weekend; McLaurin has not scored in over a month, but it is worth noting that his best games as a professional have come with his former college quarterback, Dwayne Haskins, under center (and Haskins will start on Sunday). In Atlanta, all receivers are in play. For Tampa Bay, I rank them with Chris Godwin at the top, following closely by Antonio Brown, and then Mike Evans; for Atlanta, it's Russell Gage then Calvin Ridley. Elsewhere, Michael Pittman offers solid leverage against T.Y. Hilton's popularity (more below); Manny Sanders is arguably cash-game viable and certainly going to gain popularity heading into Sunday, but remains the player at his position mostly likely to surpass GPP value; and Michael Gallup is a big-play receiver who is priced too cheaply given his recent usage and demonstrated upside.
- Sleeper: With stellar perimeter coverage from Darious Williams and Jalen Ramsey, the Rams funnel quite a bit of passing to the middle of the field, which plays well to Jamison Crowder who runs primarily from the slot. Crowder started the season on fire with 3 consecutive 100-yard games, but a series of injuries slowed down his productivity. Crowder returned a month ago and has one game with a pair of touchdowns versus three duds since that time. That said, he is priced as cheaply as he has been all season and the personnel matchup and implied gamescript favors heavy involvement from Crowder throughout this matchup. Put him into at least 10% of your lineups to capitalize on the above factors and his low percent-rostered numbers.
- Fade: Regular readers of this column will know that I have supported T.Y. Hilton as a GPP play often this season, but his recent level of production has increased his price and relative popularity to a point where you are now advised to fade the veteran receiver. As this article is being completed, Hilton is projected to be one of the top-rostered wide receivers on Sunday, which is far too high given that his price has jumped by 40% in just a few weeks, not to mention that he has scored on an unsustainable rate of 25% of his receptions within that span. If you want a piece of the Colts' passing game, roll with Michael Pittman who brings similar upside without the excess popularity.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
Tyler Higbee | NYJ | $3,800 | 3% |
Hayden Hurst | TB | $3,300 | 5% |
Jordan Akins | @IND | $2,800 | 5% |
DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
Dalton Schultz | SF | $3,200 | 2% |
FADE: | |||
Cole Kmet | @MIN | $3,000 | 14% |
Tight Ends: After the sizeable dropoff from Travis Kelce, there are a few gems to like at the tight end position in tournaments this weekend. Tyler Higbee is intriguing because no team in the league is friendlier to opposing tight ends than the Jets, who have allowed tight ends to score seven touchdowns across their previous five games. If you want to get a piece of the Rams offense this weekend, Higbee represents a sound pivot away from more popular Rams like Cam Akers, Robert Woods, or Cooper Kupp. Alternatively, Hayden Hurst should benefit from Julio Jones' absence versus the pass-funnel Bucs defense, although our Sigmund Bloom has argued that may not be the case, as Hurst's stats without Julio are worse than with him. That said, Hurst's projections-to-percent-rostered ratio are favorable and the numbers always matter more than anecdotal observations when making these kinds of decisions. Lastly, Jordan Akins is available for only $2.8K agains the Colts and should be considered as a salary-saving tournament option. Last week, Akins was wide-open in the endzone and dropped the easiest touchdown pass you will ever see because the sun blinded him. With 99 routes run and 17 targets across the last month, Akins is still an active player in this offense who should not be ignored at this price point.
- Sleeper: No tight end in my player pool is more likely to achieve 4x value on his salary this weekend than Dalton Schultz. Yet Schultz is not in the top-10 of tight ends in terms of popularity, as measured by projected percent-rostered. This dichotomy makes the Dallas tight end a solid, albeit vanilla, GPP option for tournaments, particularly given that he ranks second on the team in redzone targets this season.
- Fade: While Cole Kmet is a reasonable cash game play in Week #15, you are advised to go underweight on his ~14% crowd exposure. The aforementioned Dalton Schultz, Jordan Akins, and even Jared Cook all have similar chances of hitting 4x value on their respective salaries, but should not carry as much popularity as Kmet. Max out your Kmet exposure somewhere between 8-10% of your tournament lineups and do not be afraid to go even lower, as you see fit.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
Ravens | JAX | $3,800 | 10% |
Vikings | CHI | $2,800 | 5% |
Cowboys | SF | $2,700 | 4% |
DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
Eagles | @ARZ | $2,500 | 3% |
FADE: | |||
Buccaneers | @ATL | $3,000 | 7% |
Team Defenses: It goes without saying, but it shall be said anyhow: If you have $4.5K remaining after you build your roster, taking the Rams against the Jets' dreadful offense is viable in all formats this weekend. That said, it's tough to justify spending ~ 10% of your total salary on a defense, so you can drop down a bit and consider the Ravens at home against the Jaguars, who have not won a game since Opening Weekend. Another home team, the Vikings play host to turnover-prone Mitchell Trubisky who is destined to revert to the mean after piecing together a pair of clean games against the Lions and Texans. Lastly, the Cowboys have started to get healthier on defense and get a chance to make plays against Nick Mullens, who has thrown seven interceptions in his last five starts with San Francisco.
- Sleeper: Losers of four of their last five games, the Eagles defense has been quietly playing good football of late. The Birds have averaged a shade under double-digit fantasy points per game across that span and face Kyler Murray on the road this Sunday. Murray does protect the ball fairly well, but the Eagles are fairly priced, will be on a small number of rosters, and have enough play-makers that they merit serious consideration as a contrarian GPP option.
- Fade: The Buccaneers are trending towards being one of the most popular team defenses this weekend and it's somewhat confounding. Tampa Bay has surpassed 10 fantasy points only twice all season and have allowed 5 of their previous 7 opponents to score 20 points or more. With a Vegas total of 49.5 points, this game has shootout potential, which could hamper Tampa Bay's ability to deliver 4x value on their $3K salary.