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We dropped our first set of projections a day after the NFL draft concluded, and have updated them countless times since. But as we enter the heart of the preseason, rankings and projections start to move more decisively with greater velocity and so this year I'll be providing a weekly look into how my projections are changing. A few things to keep in mind:
- This is a recap of a week's worth of changes, but we update projections in real time and you can always find live, up-to-date numbers here
- After 20+ years of providing rankings and projections, I've found that incremental movements are generally better than wholesale, reactionary moves
- We've had another week with, thankfully, very few substantive injuries
- Many of the tweaks below pertain to players who aren't likely to be drafted in 10- or 12-team redraft leagues, but I felt it was important to show you the depth we provide in our analysis
Quarterback Ascenders
| Name | Team | Comp | Atts | % | YPA | Yds | TD | Int | Sack | Rush | RuYDs | YPR | RuTD | FBL | FPTs | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | DEN | 175 | 300 | 58.3% | 7.7 | 2,300 | 15 | 13 | 24 | 30 | 120 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 4 | 182.0 | Up 50%, he's winning the QB battle |
| Tyrod Taylor | HOU | 200 | 330 | 60.6% | 7.0 | 2,300 | 13 | 6 | 24 | 40 | 190 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 3 | 189.0 | Up substantially given Watson uncertainty |
| Trey Lance | SF | 286 | 450 | 63.6% | 7.6 | 3,440 | 20 | 13 | 32 | 90 | 525 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 4 | 317.5 | Increased from 9 to 14 games started |
These situations aren't pertinent in shallower leagues, outside of Trey Lance who could be a top-12 fantasy quarterback once he's under center. Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater have each had ups and downs this summer, but Lock appears to have the edge. For now. Tyrod Taylor has been the projected starter since the start of training camp, but I bumped him up a few more games to reflect the declining odds either DeShaun Watson plays in Houston or Davis Mills gets the nod as the heir apparent. Neither seems likely right.
Quarterback Decliners
| Name | Team | Comp | Atts | % | YPA | Yds | TD | Int | Sack | Rush | RuYDs | YPR | RuTD | FBL | FPTs | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | DEN | 182 | 275 | 66.2% | 6.9 | 1,885 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 15 | 50 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 134.3 | Down 33%, he's losing the QB battle |
| Deshaun Watson | HOU | 68 | 100 | 68.0% | 7.8 | 780 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 105 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 75.5 | Down to 4 games played (FBI/Criminal probes) |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | 345 | 545 | 63.3% | 6.6 | 3,615 | 18 | 13 | 48 | 62 | 365 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 279.3 | Trimmed a game, Giants preseason a whiff so far |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | 75 | 102 | 73.5% | 7.8 | 800 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 25 | 2.5 | - | 2 | 55.5 | Decreased from 8 to 3 games started |
A few meaningful adjustments for those in Superflex leagues. Watson's situation remains a guessing game, but with the criminal aspect of his situation ramping, it's harder to buy into a scenario where he plays more than a few games for either the Texans or another team in a mid-season trade after the legal issues clear up. The 49ers maintain Garoppolo is in line to start, but he's been substantively worse than Lance in practices. Bridgewater and Lock is still a coin toss and could ping pong back Bridgewater's way in the coming weeks. But if you're drafting right now, the tea leaves point to Lock as the starter. Finally, Daniel Jones and the Giants just give off an aura of negativity. It seems far more likely Jones loses claim to the title of "NFL starter" this season than earns his way into a long-term contract as the Giants cornerstone.
Running Back Ascenders
| Name | Team | Rush | RuYDs | YPR | RuTD | FBL | Tgts | Recs | Ctc% | Yds | YPR | TD | FPTs | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Williams | CHI | 60 | 240 | 4.0 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 18 | 75.0% | 135 | 7.5 | 1 | 73.5 | Doubled, pushing for No.2 job |
| Phillip Lindsay | HOU | 125 | 550 | 4.4 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 17 | 63.0% | 130 | 7.6 | 1 | 108.0 | Up 20%, looking like the starter in a committee |
| Jerick McKinnon | KC | 40 | 190 | 4.8 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 10 | 71.4% | 80 | 8.0 | - | 49.0 | Added projections as offset to CEH reduction |
| Malcolm Brown | MIA | 100 | 390 | 3.9 | 4 | 0 | 24 | 16 | 66.7% | 100 | 6.3 | - | 89.0 | Up 60%, running with the 1s |
| Ty Johnson | NYJ | 100 | 410 | 4.1 | 4 | 0 | 24 | 18 | 75.0% | 120 | 6.7 | 1 | 101.0 | Up 20%, running as the No.1 |
| Miles Sanders | PHI | 215 | 990 | 4.6 | 7 | 1 | 62 | 42 | 67.7% | 335 | 8.0 | 2 | 227.5 | Up a few%, Sirianni said he has nothing to prove |
| Alex Collins | SEA | 20 | 100 | 5.0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 57.1% | 25 | 6.3 | - | 22.5 | Earning 53-man roster spot |
| Giovani Bernard | TB | 50 | 205 | 4.1 | 1 | 0 | 64 | 46 | 71.9% | 365 | 7.9 | 2 | 121.0 | Up 50%, grabbing 3rd down role |
| Jaret Patterson | WAS | 25 | 95 | 3.8 | - | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 20 | 6.7 | - | - | 14.5 | Doubled, got 1st team reps over Barber |
Miles Sanders is the big name here. Nick Sirianni's declaration that Sanders wouldn't play much at all in the preseason because he has nothing to prove calms fears of a committee approach. Lindsay is in the hunt for the starting role, although the situation and depth at the position still make him a mid-round option. Ty Johnson is atop the Jets depth chart, which may not mean much a few weeks into the season but needs to be acknowledged. Giovani Bernard isn't just a No. 3 in Tampa Bay, he appears to have earned the third-down receiving role, at a minimum.
Running Back Decliners
| Name | Team | Rush | RuYDs | YPR | RuTD | FBL | Tgts | Recs | Ctc% | Yds | YPR | TD | FPTs | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Cohen | CHI | 30 | 125 | 4.2 | 1 | 0 | 40 | 31 | 77.5% | 230 | 7.4 | 1 | 78.5 | Cut in half, banged up and Williams pushing |
| DAndre Swift | DET | 213 | 960 | 4.5 | 7 | 3 | 80 | 64 | 80.0% | 480 | 7.5 | 1 | 253.0 | -2 TDs as offense may struggle to sustain drives |
| David Johnson | HOU | 90 | 390 | 4.3 | 3 | 1 | 38 | 27 | 71.1% | 225 | 8.3 | 1 | 111.5 | Down 25%, relegated to backup role it seems |
| Mark Ingram | HOU | 90 | 360 | 4.0 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 12 | 66.7% | 100 | 8.3 | 0 | 75.0 | Down 15%, Lindsay edging Ingram out |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC | 200 | 900 | 4.5 | 7 | 0 | 63 | 44 | 69.8% | 370 | 8.4 | 2 | 225.0 | Cut 1 game played pending results of ankle injury |
| Myles Gaskin | MIA | 170 | 675 | 4.0 | 5 | 1 | 52 | 42 | 80.8% | 355 | 8.5 | 2 | 186.0 | Down 15%, M. Brown got 1st team work |
| Saquon Barkley | NYG | 240 | 1,065 | 4.4 | 10 | 1 | 85 | 60 | 70.6% | 495 | 8.3 | 2 | 287.0 | -1 rushing TD, worry about overall offense |
| LaMical Perine | NYJ | 30 | 115 | 3.8 | - | 0 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 25 | 8.3 | - | 17.0 | Down 33%, No.4 in a 3-RB committee |
| Christopher Carson | SEA | 255 | 1,175 | 4.6 | 7 | 1 | 53 | 42 | 79.2% | 330 | 7.9 | 3 | 251.5 | Down 5 receptions, was a little overzealous |
| Leonard Fournette | TB | 160 | 690 | 4.3 | 7 | 1 | 34 | 26 | 76.5% | 185 | 7.1 | - | 154.5 | Down on Bernard grabbing 3rd down role |
| Ronald Jones II | TB | 165 | 775 | 4.7 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 15 | 75.0% | 105 | 7.0 | - | 131.0 | Down on Bernard grabbing 3rd down role |
| Peyton Barber | WAS | 20 | 75 | 3.8 | - | 0 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 15 | 7.5 | 0 | 11.0 | Cut in half, Patterson got 1st team reps over him |
Some significant adjustments here for early rounders. Clyde Edwards-Helaire suffered an ankle injury in this week's preseason game, but at press time we don't know the severity. He could bounce back up with a good diagnosis or be reduced further. Myles Gaskin's lack of playing time with the Dolphins' first team last week is a serious concern; it looks like a committee with Malcolm Brown. Saquon Barkley and DAndre Swift don't fall much but I took touchdowns off their projections over fear both offenses will struggle to get into the red zone. The Buccaneers' situation is murkier than hoped, as Giovani Bernard has worked his way into the rotation. A three-back committee is fantasy Kryptonite.
Tight End Ascenders
| Name | Team | Tgts | Recs | Ctc% | Yds | YPR | TD | FPTs | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylen Granson | IND | 10 | 7 | 70.0% | 85 | 12.1 | 2 | 27.5 | Added projections |
Tight End Descenders
| Name | Team | Tgts | Recs | Ctc% | Yds | YPR | TD | FPTs | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mo Alie-Cox | IND | 43 | 29 | 67.4% | 370 | 12.8 | 3 | 83.0 | Down slightly, shifted to K.Granson |
| Jack Doyle | IND | 45 | 29 | 64.4% | 280 | 9.7 | 2 | 68.0 | Down slightly, shifted to K.Granson |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | 91 | 55 | 60.4% | 600 | 10.9 | 4 | 139.0 | Slight drop, Ertz has looked better in camp |
A quiet week at the tight end position. The Colts' committee gets a bit murkier with rookie Kylen Granson factoring into the equation. Goedert is a risky bet as a top-10 tight end given how well Zach Ertz looks and the Eagles' willingness to keep the veteran in the fold. If Ertz gets traded, Goedert vaults back into fantasy starter consideration, but right now he's being overdrafted.
Wide Receiver Ascenders
| Name | Team | Tgts | Recs | Ctc% | Yds | YPR | TD | FPTs | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | CIN | 116 | 81 | 69.8% | 925 | 11.4 | 5 | 204.6 | Up 5%, JaMarr Chase struggling to adjust |
| Odell Beckham | CLE | 110 | 66 | 60.0% | 920 | 13.9 | 6 | 195.1 | Up 5%, slightly more optimistic about bounce back |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | 133 | 89 | 66.9% | 1,290 | 14.5 | 8 | 277.0 | Modest (5%) increase to bring to parity with Cooper |
| Jerry Jeudy | DEN | 125 | 72 | 57.6% | 1,010 | 14.0 | 6 | 209.0 | Up 10%, looks better than Sutton |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | 71 | 47 | 66.2% | 620 | 13.2 | 3 | 127.0 | Up 20%, in the hunt for starting role |
| Michael Pittman | IND | 97 | 63 | 64.9% | 850 | 13.5 | 5 | 181.5 | Up 10%, moving him into No. 1 spot |
| Mecole Hardman | KC | 95 | 63 | 66.3% | 910 | 14.4 | 7 | 199.5 | Up 30%, fully buying into the breakout |
| Quez Watkins | PHI | 61 | 34 | 55.7% | 525 | 15.4 | 2 | 98.5 | Up 40%, got the start again with DeVonta |
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Mecole Hardman is the headliner here. The drumbeats of improvement are turning into a full orchestra and he should be viewed as a high-end WR3 with upside. Ja'Marr Chase dropped all three of his targets in the second preseason game, which may mean nothing but Tyler Boyd's role should be more secure than feared. Odell Beckham still isn't doing much as he recovers from an ACL tear, but his and the coaches' tone is optimistic. CeeDee Lamb is effectively interchangeable with Amari Cooper and could overtake his teammate given Cooper's health. Jerry Jeudy is having a great summer while teammate Courtland Sutton doesn't yet seem comfortable coming back from his injury. The biggest move of the week is Quez Watkins, who keeps rising and now seems poised to start for the Eagles barring a change-of-momentum in the final two weeks of the preseason.
Wide Receiver Descenders
| Name | Team | Tgts | Recs | Ctc% | Yds | YPR | TD | FPTs | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | BAL | 99 | 61 | 61.6% | 800 | 13.1 | 6 | 177.0 | Down 10%, was too optimistic relative to peers |
| JaMarr Chase | CIN | 120 | 74 | 61.7% | 1,005 | 13.6 | 6 | 210.5 | Down 5%, still struggling to adjust to NFL |
| Amari Cooper | DAL | 144 | 99 | 68.8% | 1,240 | 12.5 | 7 | 266.5 | Modest (3%) reduction to bring to parity with Lamb |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | 115 | 66 | 57.4% | 975 | 14.8 | 5 | 193.5 | -15 targets, hasn't recaptured pre-ACL form |
| Breshad Perriman | DET | 64 | 34 | 53.1% | 525 | 15.4 | 3 | 104.5 | Down 25%, not clear he's going to start |
| Brandin Cooks | HOU | 123 | 79 | 64.2% | 1,075 | 13.6 | 5 | 216.5 | Down 5%,still far above consensus |
| Michael Thomas | NO | 91 | 70 | 76.9% | 850 | 12.1 | 5 | 185.0 | Knocked another game off (10 games played) |
| Kadarius Toney | NYG | 48 | 28 | 58.3% | 325 | 11.6 | 2 | 72.5 | Down 40%, not practicing and time running out |
| Jalen Reagor | PHI | 75 | 42 | 56.0% | 545 | 13.0 | 3 | 117.5 | Down 5%, only played with starters in 3WR sets |
I never considered myself particularly high on Marquise Brown, but somehow I was a high-end outlier versus my peers; that needed to be addressed. You'll note slight reductions to JaMarr Chase and Amari Cooper, but don't overreact. Michael Thomas' situation is difficult to handicap, but it seemed prudent to come down another game (10 games played). A pair of young receivers -- Jalen Reagor and Kadarius Toney -- are getting far more negative beat reports than positive.
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Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail at wood@footballguys.com.
