Links to similar discussions of other divisions:
Not that much is going to happen around NFL circles for the next month, save for a few trades and some third-wave free agent signings. That means it’s time to build up your drafting chops with best-ball drafts! What does each offense offer? I’ll break it down division by division. Let’s go to the NFC South, which features two new quarterbacks and one very important tight end.
Note: All ADP courtesy of Underdog
Atlanta Falcons
Offensive Outlook: This offense lost Julio Jones, but it gained Kyle Pitts. Is Arthur Smith an offensive genius? We’ll get a better idea of that when we see what he does with an offense that doesn’t have Derrick Henry as the point of the spear. The offensive line has a few question marks on the interior and needs the pair of 2019 first-round picks (Kaleb McGary and Chris Lindstrom) to live up to the investment. The defense is still a major weakness, so expect the Falcons to lean pass-heavy no matter their intentions on offense.
Quarterback
Matt Ryan - 11th round ADP
Ryan was looking like a value at ADP before Julio Jones was traded, and he might still deliver on ADP if Kyle Pitts is everything he is cracked up to be. Ryan has suffered when Jones isn’t there to help him in the past, so Pitts performance and Calvin Ridley’s health will be key to his value. It’s probably better to take a more promising quarterback a little earlier or a quarterback with just as much upside and not much more risk a little later.
Running Back
Mike Davis - 4th/5th round ADP
Javian Hawkins - 15+ round ADP
Qadree Ollison - 15+ round ADP
Davis has the look of the classic trap running back who has opportunity by default but doesn’t have the track record to merit it. He was a fantasy RB1 last year in place of Christian McCaffrey and has a three-down skill set, and there’s no one of note behind him. Davis’s cost isn’t prohibitive, but is he going to be a better pick than Kareem Hunt or Javonte Williams when the dust settles? He fits into the classic Zero RB/Do the Opposite/Upside Down strategy if he falls to the fifth. Hawkins is a scatback who can have some marginal value if the Falcons keep the UDFA (monitor Caleb Huntley too). Ollison has generated some spring buzz and the new staff loves him, so he is the best late pick if you want to put a chip on Davis busting as the Falcons lead back.
Wide Receiver
Calvin Ridley - mid-late 2nd round ADP
Russell Gage - 10th/11th round ADP
Olamide Zaccheaus - 15+ round ADP
Ridley’s cup should runneth over with targets, but he just had offseason foot surgery, so there’s reason for pause. Ridley has been like a sportscar so far in his career -- incredible performance, but lacking that edge if everything isn’t tuned up and in alignment. Finishing as the #1 overall receiver is within his range of outcomes, but if he isn’t 100% during camp, pivot to Justin Jefferson. Gage should be a fine high floor option, but his ADP has come up enough that there’s no discount, especially when looking at the wide receivers around him on the draft board. Elijah Moore, Marvin Jones, and Darnell Mooney among others are going in Gage’s vicinity, but are better picks for best-ball formats. Zaccheaus is a viable late pick in deep leagues, as the next man up if Gage or Ridley go down, but monitor the development of sixth-round pick Frank Darby too.
Tight End
Kyle Pitts - 4th/5th round ADP
Hayden Hurst - 15+ round ADP
Expect Pitts' ADP to continue to rise through the summer. Everything out of OTAs pointed in the direction of the Falcons using him as a foundational player in the offense and Arthur Smith’s background as a tight end coach should only help. The best ball format offsets the risk that Pitts is a disappointment and gives rosters a chance to benefit from the possibility of elite tight end scoring at a discount from teams that take one of the top three. The Falcons could employ two tight ends as a base set, which would give Hurst enough opportunity to have value in deep drafts.
Bottom Line: Can Arthur Smith’s offensive designs and Kyle Pitts make up for the loss of Julio Jones? If you think so, be open to investing in this unit.
Carolina Panthers
Offensive Outlook: The Panthers seemed to think Teddy Bridgewater was holding back the offense in 2020 and had a mission to improve at quarterback this offseason. Will Sam Darnold be an improvement? They traded for him and passed on Justin Fields at #8. The team barely had Christian McCaffrey last year, so his return should help matters.
Quarterback
Sam Darnold - 15th round ADP
How much of Darnold’s failings were Adam Gase’s fault, and how much of them were just Darnold being a bust? Offensive coordinator Joe Brady was a smashing success with Joe Burrow at LSU in 2019, and last year’s Panthers offense was far from dysfunctional, but overall Darnold is an unknown and probably not worth a pick as your QB2, but could contribute to a late-round, three- quarterback build.
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey - #1 overall ADP
Chuba Hubbard - 15+ round ADP
McCaffrey’s injuries were a bummer last year, but he was still far and away the #1 PPR running back when he was on the field, so he’ll be the #1 pick in most drafts again this year. Hubbard is one of the few backups worth taking religiously if you take the starter because he’s so cheap and Mike Davis’s production in place of McCaffrey last year shows that you might able to survive another McCaffrey injury if you roster the backup at a very cheap price.
Wide Receiver
D.J. Moore - 4th round ADP
Robby Anderson - 6th/7th round ADP
Terrace Marshall - 13th/14th round ADP
Moore continues to lead the way in ADP here, and he might deliver on the cost with the target tree likely narrowed after Curtis Samuel left in free agency, but Anderson is the better value. The other receivers in Moore’s ADP range are surer things with higher ceilings, and Anderson has a history with Darnold that could make him a true #1 who makes a difference everywhere from the short to the deep game. Marshall has tantalizing upside, but the team also signed David Moore, so monitor that battle for snaps in training camp. If Marshall is ahead of Moore, he has potential as a late-round pick, but it’s also unsure if this offense can support three fantasy-relevant wide receivers when McCaffrey is healthy. The best ball format helps increase the value of Marshall if he’s a big-play receiver with inconsistent contributions, so if you believe in him, go for it.
Tight End
Dan Arnold - 15+ round ADP
The Panthers gave Arnold a two-year, $6 million deal, so they plan on using him, but just how much after they also added Marshall in the second round? He did make some big plays with Kyler Murray last year, but Arnold is probably only a target in 28-round FFPC drafts.
Bottom Line: There is intrigue here beyond drawing the #1 pick. Chuba Hubbard could make your draft and Sam Darnold -- heck the whole pass offense -- could greatly exceed expectations if he’s the next Ryan Tannehill and it was really Adam Gase that was the problem all along.
New Orleans Saints
Offensive Outlook: Was Drew Brees a crucial part of the Saints' offense success, or was he actually holding them back? There will be a quarterback competition in camp, but most expect Jameis Winston to start unless Taysom Hill decisively outplays him. Will Winston be able to execute the Payton/Carmichael offense as well as, or even better than late-career Brees? How will that affect Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas? There are a lot more questions than answers here.
Quarterback
Jameis Winston - 15+ round ADP
Taysom Hill - 15+ round ADP
Winston is still very cheap even though he’s the favorite to win the quarterback job. Hill would get the same package of plays he had with Brees, so that will lower Winston’s ceiling, but Brees was still worth more with Hill stealing goal line snaps than Winston costs right now. Hill has a high weekly ceiling if he gets on the field, so he’s a fine hail mary as your last pick if you don’t like your quarterback group.
Running Back
Alvin Kamara - #5 overall ADP
Latavius Murray - 11th round ADP
Kamara has fallen slightly from last year’s value even though he was a league winner on Christmas with his six touchdown game. How much of Kamara’s value was based on Brees frequently and efficiently targeting him? Could the offense actually be more productive with Winston, helping offset any drop in targets? Kamara’s ADP might not reflect the risk of his passing game role shrinking, but his long track of success makes him tough to pass on at #5. Murray had his best game last year when Hill was in at quarterback, so if you think Hill can win the job, he could have standalone value.
Wide Receiver
Michael Thomas - 3rd round ADP
Tre’Quan Smith - 13th/14th round ADP
Marquez Callaway - 15+ round ADP
Deonte Harris - 15+ round ADP
Thomas’s ADP has dropped two rounds from last year, which could be an overreaction if most of his bust year was because of injury and not an erosion in ability or lack of focus. Thomas isn’t back on 100% firm footing with the team, and like Kamara, there’s a question of how much of his value was based on chemistry with Brees, but that appears to be more than baked into his ADP. Smith will be the #2 receiver and the team still has high hopes for him. He’s worth a pick at ADP to add weekly upside to your receiver group. Callaway will be the #3 and looked ready for takeoff before his injury last year. Keep him and Harris, who has weekly big-play potential, on your 28-round FFPC draft late-round target list.
Tight End
Adam Trautman - 12th round ADP
Trautman is a favorite sleeper TE2 or part of a late-round, tight-end committee approach. All of the buzz around him is positive. If Brees to Winston isn’t a dropoff, he’ll be a value as long as he delivers on his considerable potential in year two.
Bottom Line: How much you invest in the Saints offense comes down to how much you believe in Jameis Winston and how much you thought Drew Brees added or took away from their production last year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Offensive Outlook: This unit is in contention to be the most productive offense in the league. The only problem is that they are three deep at running back and tight end and five deep at wide receiver. All of that production should converge at Tom Brady, and best ball is ideal for ironing out the boom/bust wrinkles of a diversified attack.
Quarterback
Tom Brady - 9th round ADP
Brady’s ADP should be closer to the top five quarterbacks as the offense will benefit from the return of O.J. Howard in addition to everyone being fully on the same page after last season afforded no offseason and a modified camp. He’s a strong choice if you don’t get a top five quarterback and probably more attractive than the handful of quarterbacks going between him and the top five.
Running Back
Leonard Fournette - 8th/9th round ADP
Ronald Jones II - 9th round ADP
Giovani Bernard - 15+ round ADP
A three-headed backfield is much less troubling in a best ball league than a lineup setting league, so it’s possible that these backs could be beyond frustrating when you have to set a lineup and still a success for best ball leagues. Fournette is the most expensive, but he is in a battle with Jones for early-down work and the team seemed to think more of Jones last year until he got banged up late in the season. There’s no strong lean here and the only way one of Fournette or Jones is a huge hit is if one of them missed significant time. Bernard is by far the best value of the three and he could be the leading scorer of the three in PPR leagues. He should dominate passing downs and two minute drill snaps. He’ll be the James White for this offense.
Wide Receiver
Mike Evans - 3rd/4th round ADP
Chris Godwin - 4th round ADP
Antonio Brown - 8th/9th round ADP
Scott Miller - 15+ round ADP
Tyler Johnson - 15+ round ADP
Evans and Godwin are in the mix of strong wide receiver picks available in the late third/early fourth. Evans should have more big plays and touchdowns, while Godwin should be more consistent. Godwin will have blowup games of his own and he finished the regular season with four touchdowns in the last three games. He’s the better pick of the two at ADP. Brown will be a big value if he produces at the same clip he did in the second half of 2020 after joining the team and he fits into any draft plan. Miller has big-play upside and would be a big hit if one of the top three receivers miss time. Johnson would have a lot of value if Godwin goes down.
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski - 13th/14th round ADP
O.J. Howard - 15+ round ADP
Both of the Bucs top two tight ends are values. Gronkowski was a best-ball beast when Howard went out last year, but Howard was the better play by a good margin when both were healthy. If it looks like Howard will be back at or near 100% in training camp, he’s the clear pick, but if he’s coming along slowly or has a setback, Gronkowski is our target.
Bottom Line: The Bucs crowded offense may vee
