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Not As Swift As We Think

We crave certainty with our guidance. I can tell you with great certainty that you're not getting a definitive answer about DAndre Swift in this article. It's ok to feel ambivalent about players. It becomes more commonplace as you gain knowledge about the game.

It's why there's great value in exploring the players who generate the most uncertainty for you. Swift is that player for me.

He was one of the most difficult evaluations for a running back that I've encountered in recent years. When studying his college film for the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, Swift had a combination of skills and deficiencies one doesn't normally see from a future NFL starter in a draft class.

Swift had lapses with vision and decision-making that one wouldn't expect from a lead back. As good as his hands were in the receiving game, his routes had clear lapses that reduced his opportunities to make clean receptions.

Swift also had a strange athletic profile for a runner. Although his change of direction quickness was an asset, it was easy for draftniks to conclude from Swift's tape that he was "quicker-than-fast," which isn't a death-knell for a prospect's potential to become a productive NFL starter. This turned out to be false.

Swift is actually "faster-than-quick," when defining quickness as the player's initial acceleration to his top speed. This is more problematic for running backs because acceleration is one of the most important athletic aspects of productive running back play.

It's what Jim Brown always noted in his analysis of top runners and it's the common thread between disparate shapes, sizes, and styles of runners: from Emmitt Smith to Bo Jackson; Eric Dickerson to Walter Payton; Barry Sanders to Earl Campbell; and LaDainian Tomlinson to Marshawn Lynch. And whether you're examining games of today's stars -- including Nick Chubb, Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffrey, and Alvin Kamara -- acceleration remains the unifying thread in their games.

Kamara is the player Swift is getting compared to this summer. However, Swift lacks top acceleration. He needs a longer runway of open space to reach his top speed.

This is a vital factor to remember when considering that Swift is supposed to earn a role that many think will give him Kamara's potential production. The same is true for comparing Swift with Austin Ekeler, the more accurate player-role considering that former Chargers Head Coach Anthony Lynn is the Lions' new offensive coordinator and has gone into detail with the Athletic about the defined roles he has for runners.

Ekeler and Kamara have the good-to-great acceleration that Swift has lacked. Good acceleration gets runners through tight creases fast enough to avoid or mitigate a lot of potential obstacles. Not only can a back's acceleration erase a good angle of pursuit from a defender, but it also generates enough power to pull through the reach, wrap, or hit from a tackler.

A back with strong acceleration can still generate gains of 30-50 yards despite lacking top-end speed. Emmitt Smith, Frank Gore, and Marshawn Lynch are prime examples and all three were elite runners with sustained excellence.

When a back lacks top acceleration, the longer runway required to reach top speed leads to more reaches, wraps, and hits from opposing defenders in the tight confines between the tackles. Box defenders also have an increased chance of recovering from bad angles and chasing down the runner, decreasing the optimal length of a run.

Although Swift has sweet footwork and short-area change-of-direction (C.O.D.) quickness, this requires lateral movement and the more often a back has to move laterally, the more opportunities exist for defenders to rally to the ball and limit the length of a run. The greatest exception to the rule has been Barry Sanders, whose acceleration and stamina to maintain a competitive rate of speed over long distances as a runner were as strong as his C.O.D.

Sanders is the exception that proves the rule. Although not as dynamic with C.O.D. as Sanders, Lynch's C.O.D. and stamina were also why Marshawn Lynch generated more big gains than many would expect from a back with his speed.

Swift's Rookie Year

When studying Swift's 2020 campaign, it's clear that he didn't have an ingrained stylistic identity. The analysis below shows plays I saw multiples times during his rookie year that illustrate Swift not knowing the advantages and limits of defender angles between the tackles, on the perimeter, or in the open field.

When comparing Swift's rookie year with his Georgia career, there's also evidence of him copying teammate Adrian Peterson's penchant for jump cuts -- an inefficient movement style that the freakish Peterson can execute productively over the course of a long career in ways that few running backs ever could. Swift's mimicry of Peterson was like a hummingbird trying to be a falcon.

When examining Swift's athletic ability, footwork, and decision-making solely on the basis of his rookie season, it's logical that the Lions signed a between-the-tackles banger like Jamaal Williams. Swift's Advanced Rushing Statistics are the product of the issues noted during his rookie campaign.

He earned only 1.7 yards after contact per attempt, 43rd among eligible runners in 2020. Devin Singletary is a back with strong C.O.D but a slow accelerator and Singletary generated 2.9 yards after contact per attempt -- second among eligible backs last year.

Swift's attempts-per-broken tackle is much better -- 12.7, which was 16th among runners. Attempts per broken tackle can have some value with the right context of examination but it isn't as valuable a data point for productive runners as yards after contact.

The reason is how stat sites track this data. They don't differentiate tackle types, which means there's a lot of baked-in variation within the data because this stat is prone to trackers giving equal value to a defender's slap of his hand on the thigh pad of a runner working through a crease at full speed and a backing bouncing off a head-on hit.

Think of it this way: If Saquon Barkley earns 75 yards after a defender slaps his thigh pad is it an equal or great expression of power and balance to Nick Chubb bouncing off defensive tackle's attempted chop of his knees at the line of scrimmage and then pushing a linebacker in the hole down hill for five yards?

We know that's not the case, but until stat sites are transparent about how they track this statistic, this is the type of variation that makes the data far less useful.

This year, the Rookie Scouting Portfolio began tracking every carry of running backs it studies to determine the success rate of breaking tackle attempts. The RSP's After-Contact and Contact-Avoidance Analytics even defines and tracks tackle attempts into three buckets of ascending difficulty: reaches, wraps, and hits.

Swift's 1.7 yards after contact per attempt fits the context of last year's running style. He may have made defenders miss at a high rate and needed fewer attempts than all but 15 of the NFL's weekly contributors to break tackles but the product of his work has been less efficient.

At first glance, Swift's 1.7 yards after contact per attempt doesn't appear to be a significant difference from Devin Singletary's 2.9 or the 2.2 figure both Kamara and Ekler earned in 2020.

Kamara is physically and stylistically in a different class of playmaker. In addition to this superior burst, he makes better decisions at this stage of their careers to set up defenders and he excels at slipping tackles while working downhill.

The idea that the offense will be like the Saints because Dan Campbell was a tight end coach in New Orleans makes a lot less sense than the offense having a closer resemblance to the Chargers when considering that Lynn will be the Lions' offensive coordinator and described the backfield dynamic in terms similar to what the Chargers implemented during Lynn's regime.

Ekeler and Swift, who are the most comparable players in terms of role and had similar attempts last year, had roughly the same number of carries (116 for Ekeler and 114 for Swift). Ekeler earned an additional 84 yards after contact.

Although it's only a difference of 8.4 fantasy points for the year in most leagues, backs that consistently display a lower-than-average rate in roles that don't feature them primarily between the tackles is an important layer of information to consider about that player's future role.

Especially when there's potential for Swift's No.16 PPR ranking 2020 compared to the No.26 Ekeler to be a red herring in the analysis. Ekeler played three fewer games than Swift last year, but that's not an important difference because they had similar touches. the potential red herring his Swift's eight rushing touchdowns.

It's easy to view this figure and conclude that Swift has a nose for the red zone that the Lions will encourage in 2021.

The Implications of Swift's "B" Back Role in 2021

Swift scored all eight of his touchdowns on 20 plays in the red zone last year, averaging 2.3 yards-per-carry and earning a first down on 40 percent of these touches, fumbling once. However, he may not have this role in 2021

Jamaal Williams, Swift's new teammate and Lynn's "A" back, -- which will be addressed in a moment in greater detail -- scored two touchdowns on 24 plays, averaging 3.4 yards-per-carry and earning a first down on 37.5 percent of these touchdowns without turning the ball over once.

The touchdowns may be all that matter to the results portion of the analysis, but when examining who was more efficient as a yardage gainer both backs were in situations where the average "yardage to go" was 5 and Williams earned more yards per attempt and a similar rate of first downs.

Pair this statistic with the way Lynn defined Williams and Swift's roles and there's a greater likelihood than presumed that Williams will out-point Swift in the red zone in 2021.

"Jamaal is what I'd call a classic 'A' back," Lynn told Chris Burke and Nick Baumgardner of The Athletic. "I like to break the backs down into 'A' and 'B'. My 'A' backs are normally my bigger backs. They can run between the tackles, block probably a little better than a 'B' back, they can also run the perimeter...

"My 'B' back comes in, he's a guy that sometimes I want to use in space more," Lynn said. "He's my speed-in-space guy. I feel like Jamaal would be an outstanding 'A' back. I like his energy, I like his pad level and the way he runs the football between the tackles."

Melvin Gordon was Lynn's most successful "A" Back during the coach's stint with the Chargers. When Gordon and Ekeler were both healthy and contributing in their defined roles, Gordon outproduced Ekeler as a touchdown scorer 18-6 between 2018-19 and Ekeler earned a steady 3 rushing scores each year. Add 2017 to the mix and the difference is 26-8 in Gordon's favor.

Last year, the Chargers wanted Joshua Kelley to earn that role, but his confidence plummeted quickly after a promising start. Even so, the combined production Kelley and Kalen Ballage - both "A" back types -- still outdid Ekeler on the ground. The "A" backs earned 644 rushing yards and 5 rushing scores to Ekeler's 530 and 1.

It's notable that this duo of substitute-caliber "A" backs also earned 43 receptions for 247 yards to Ekeler's 54 catches and 403 yards. Ekeler's only season of passing-game dominance ahead of the "A" back was in 2019 when he earned 108 targets, 92 receptions, 993 yards, and 8 scores to Gordon's 55 targets, 42 catches, 296 yards, and 1 score.

Ekeler accomplished this feat with a healthy receiving corps that included two, 1,000-yard receivers and Philip Rivers at the helm. Last year, Detroit's quartet of Marvin Jones, Kenny Golladay, T.J. Hockenson, and Matthew Stafford created enough space downfield to support Swift's 2.9-yard average before contact in 2020.

Although Justin Herbert performed well as a rookie and delivered a solid 7.3 yards per attempt as a passer, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Hunter Henry each missed two games and aren't the same caliber of vertical receivers as Detroit's old trio. This dynamic contributed to Ekeler averaging 2.4 yards before contact last year. While respectable, it's a half of a yard less than Swift and when examining previous seasons, Ekeler averaged 1.8 yards in 2019 and 1.9 yards in 2018.

Is this lower average before contact due to his role, his talent, or the surrounding talent? It's likely a combination of all three factors.

When considering Swift earning a similar role to Ekeler and the Lions lacking receiving talent on par with Jones and Golladay, expect Swift to average fewer yards before contact because opposing defenses won't respect the passing game as much as it did with Jones and Golladay in the fold. Because Detroit's receiving corps lacks the proven talent to create as much space between the intermediate and shallow zones for Swift to earn as big runways, his big-play value could also decline.

With a dangerous vertical passing game -- the established threat carries more importance than the actual output -- in Detroit last year, Swift was an explosive playmaker relative to the tier of PPR options where analysts want to place him this summer.

According to NextGen Stats, Swift generated explosive plays on 19 percent of his 160 touches last year. This is a rate equal to Kamara who generated 19 percent on nearly twice as many touches (316). Ekeler earned explosive plays on 17 percent of his 164 touches. Ekeler's surrounding talent didn't have the same explosive potential as Swift's last year and this year, Swift's surrounding talent appears worse than Ekeler's.

At the same time, an injured and arm-weary Drew Brees started much of the season in New Orleans. While that might lead fans to believe that opposing defenses would opt to crowd the line of scrimmage and force Brees to throw deep, coaches did the opposite -- they played deeper zones and let Brees check the ball, keeping the plays in front of him and forcing the Saints to win with protracted drives.

With more initial space for Kamara to work (2.8 yards before contact in 2020 versus 2.4 and 2.3 the previous two years), he earned career highs in targets, receptions, receiving TDs, and yards from scrimmage. His receiving yardage was the most he earned since his rookie year.

Because Brees has shown that he's a better passer under pressure than Jared Goff, don't count on opposing defenses to play passive football against the Lions' offense. The changes in coaching, scheme, and personnel along with Swift's rookie tape indicate that as the "B" back, Swift's ceiling of potential has a range between a strong fantasy RB2 and a mid-to-low RB3 in a 12-team format.

If Swift earns twice as many targets as Williams in the passing game similar to Ekeler's best statistical year, Swift could earn that No.14 PPR ranking where I have him while writing this analysis. If this target distribution for Ekeler turned out to be a dynamic that Anthony Lynn didn't want for his "B" back's workload, then Swift's ceiling might be no more than a low-end RB2 who, like Ekeler could deliver fantasy RB2 value on a per-game basis but could easily be a fantasy RB3 if he misses games due to injury.

Potential Bad News: 2021 Swift Has an Even Lower Floor

This should have been apparent based on the previous paragraph, but it's a point that requires more emphasis. Swift's workload could decline due to the versatility of Jamaal Williams. This may seem counterintuitive to readers who think of Williams as Aaron Rodgers' situational committee mate and a grind-it-out option lacking explosiveness but that's because they're underestimating Williams.

Last year, Williams earned explosive plays on 23 percent of his 175 touches -- a rate nearly 5 percent higher than Swift and Kamara. That 23 percent figure is more than twice his rate in 2019 (11 percent) but in 2018, Williams earned explosive plays on 26 percent of his 148 touches.

While Williams lacks top speed, he's an efficient runner with situational data splits from 2018-20 that reflect his decision-making and power on film. Most notably, Williams had good per-carry averages in short and moderate down-and-distance situations where opponents should expect the run.

So did Swift. The uncertainty with Swift comes into play because Williams heads into training camp as the designated "A" back and for more reasons than which player offers more as a pound-for-pound runner.

The two backs carry roughly the same weight, so Williams' as the bigger back is more perception than reality. However, Williams is the superior pass protector at this point in their careers.

The next two videos are samples of multiple pass protection reps where there's a clear difference in technical prowess and physicality between the two backs.

If Swift improves his technique and displays the requisite physicality and aggression of a reliable pass protector, it could reduce the situations where Williams is the clear, no-contest "A" back. If Swift's performance doesn't improve and he remains a liability in this area, it's a reason why Williams could earn more snaps at Swift's expense.

Although Swift has always shown a good catch radius and the ability to win against contact, his route running has been in need of improvement for years. As you'll see below, his footwork baits a lot of linebackers playing off him. However, he telegraphs his breaks into the middle of the field and if this continues in 2021, experienced linebackers and defensive backs will begin anticipating Swift's intentions.

Swift also has a variety of inconsistencies with minor details such as his hands position to address the ball, when to catch the ball at its earliest point, and reading the defense pre- and post-snap effectively enough to have a more efficient transition downhill after the catch.

One of the arguments that analysts commonly make in favor of Swift's 2021 season is rooted in the idea that Swift will earn a massive number of targets because the Lions defense will struggle and Goff will be throwing the ball a lot in garbage-time or catch-up mode.

Last year, Swift earned 22 of his 57 targets in situations where the Lions trailed big. Ekeler earned 22 of these 65 targets in 2020 and 31 of these 108 targets in 2019. In 2018, Ekeler only earned 9 of 62 targets in situations where the Chargers trailed big.

When teams are trailing, they have to stretch the field to make up deficits in a compressed period of time. It's unlikely that Swift becomes a more prolific receiver solely on the basis of the potential for more garbage time.

There's also the notion that Swift will play more in the slot and split outside. Here's the location and frequency that the Lions aligned Swift last year compared to Kamara and Ekeler:

• Wide: 8 percent vs. 8 percent vs. 6 percent
• Slot: 2 percent vs. 6 percent vs. 5 percent
• Tight: 2 percent vs. 5 percent vs. 5 percent
• Left of the QB in the backfield: 29 percent vs. 23 percent vs. 23 percent
• Behind the QB: 31 percent vs. 35 percent vs. 31 percent
• Right of the QB: 27 percent vs. 22 percent vs. 31 percent

Even if Swift doubles or triples the percentage of his alignments in the slot or tight to the formation at the line of scrimmage, it's unlikely the reason he'll earn a significant increase in targets because the rate of that Kamara and Ekeler were detached from the formation was still low and they are considered the two best receiving backs in the game.

Williams is also a capable receiver who earned the same or greater amount of time in slot and tight alignments as Swift last year. If Swift's pass protection remains an issue and Williams earns the bigger red zone role, Swift could be reduced to a flex option similar to Giovani Bernard, who, like Swift, was the 16th-ranked fantasy runner as a rookie.

Bernard's sophomore campaign placed him 18th among backs, but he never returned to those heights for the rest of his career. He has been a flex option, at best, for the past five seasons despite having the talent and skills to do a lot more.

For most of this time, the Bengals lacked a dominant runner. Jeremy Hill offered one excellent year in 2014 and his production declined significantly during the next two seasons. Joe Mixon has been a legitimate producer as the lead back in 2018-19, which were the two years he earned starter touches.

If the new management in Detroit labels Swift a scat back, that opens a much lower floor for Swift despite the popular analysis that scat backs have gained fantasy value.

How Swift Can Break Through

So how can Swift meet the lofty ceilings that the industry has projected for him as a discount Kamara or career-year Ekeler? He'll have to earn a larger red-zone role than Ekeler despite playing for an offensive coordinator whose staff didn't give Ekeler those opportunities. This is a possible outcome, but unlikely.

Swift will have to enhance his initial acceleration so he can reach his top speed without requiring as long of a runway. Ray Rice is a good example of a success story in this regard. It's also common to see backs play quicker simply because they are more confident about playing in the league and not overthinking in Year Two as often as they did as rookies.

Whatever the underlying reason for a potential improvement with acceleration, a quicker Swift would increase his chances of earning enough touches between the tackles to supplement his work in space and deliver Kamara-like workloads that have been significantly and consistently greater in volume to Ekeler. An improvement with Swift's acceleration is likely, but the likelihood of Swift developing elite acceleration is unlikely.

It means the chances of Swift usurping some of Williams' "A" back role during training camp is lower odds than a coin flip.

If Swift's burst is equal or slightly better than Williams, he'll need to improve his route-running, receiving details, and pass-blocking to usurp Williams' expected workload. Again, we should be optimistic that Swift will improve these areas -- especially his work in the receiving game -- but not to the extent that he keeps Williams on the sideline.

You'll need to read quotes from coaches during training camp that describe how much Swift has improved as a receiver, pass protector, and/or interior runner. These quotes should include specific details about what has improved and descriptions from the coaches and teammates (not writer observations) that Swift has been dominant in these areas of the game.

If this happens, Swift will be worth every bit of buzz that has been heaped on to him thus far.

But at this point, the links to Kamara and career-year Ekeler have been too swift with the hype.