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With five weeks of data for the 2021 season, here is a check-up on the quarterback position for career trajectories, regression, and dynasty valuation:
The concise summary is they have been poor. One of the major trackers I use is a touchdown-interception ratio. However, this is not a straight-forward counting statistic. Instead, this is the touchdown rate (touchdowns per completion) divided by interception rate (interceptions divided by incompletions). This is different than the typical per-attempt calculations shown on a majority of sites and resources. The average mark in the NFL is somewhere in the 1.10-1.25 range on an annual basis with the best in the NFL usually 2.0 or higher. Below 1.0 is highly concerning from a developmental standpoint and a 'keep your job for long' standpoint.
Back to the 2021 rookie quarterbacks...
They have been abysmal in TD-INT ratio through five weeks.
The five quarterbacks who have played the most and attempted a decent sample size of passes to date and their ratios:
Looking at notable young quarterbacks over the past 15 years, at least being close to the 1.0 ratio threshold through two seasons is a key marker for a success-failure trajectory beyond the two-year prism. Most have been successful above the 1.0 line and most have been unsuccessful (or fallen to a backup role a la Ryan Tannehill, Teddy Bridgewater even if they have been viewed as more successful later).
The 2021 rookies still have potentially 10 or more starts for this year plus 2022 to assess them in this two-year window. However, they are woefully behind the curve. For example, Daniel Jones was 0.97, Kyler Murray 1.00, Mitch Trubisky 0.94, Jameis Winston 1.03 as young quarterbacks right around the 1.00 threshold through two seasons. To really boost one's odds, the strong quarterbacks (Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert, etc) are all 1.40 or higher early in their career.
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